Topic: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] - page 28. (Read 908459 times)

I'm not 100% sure what you trying to say. My understanding was that bitoinbuilder pays BTC for GoxBTc right on the spot.

Understood. My point is if someone (ie: John Doe) has GoxBTC, what are the chances he ends up with REAL BTCs under these circumstances. I'm not talking about outsiders; just insiders (and the site owner). It's all about trust and good will (that everything goes OK)... or not...

No one can invest in anything at bitcoinbuilder any more. It's just a gamble between those who have GoxBTC there already and the site operator.

This is based on wishful thinking for the moment. Too many things at stake for someone to "invest" into some of this. But it's a free market I suppose...

It's only for the GoxBTC already on their site. With the main site down you can't transfer GoxBTC to other accounts anymore. They know how many GoxBTC they have on their site which helps to calculate their risk. IIRC, the numbers commonly thrown around (800'000 missing / 200'000 found mysteriously) would indicate that 1 GoxBTC ~ 0.25 BTC. So they take a gamble at that.

have you read about buying 1 gox btc at 0.11 btc?  https://bitcoinbuilder.com/

what do they know that we don't?
they say they expect distribution until September.. so they have inside information?

I find your theory quite compelling. If so, we are dealing with the actions of a state with some possible diplomatic ramifications. If true, then this could help to make it entirely clear why there has been such an atmosphere of secrecy surrounding the Mt. Gox bankruptcy proceedings, as noted by Kolin Burgess in his report on the second creditors' meeting. Perhaps the Mt. Gox creditors should be trying to work through diplomatic channels in order to get back their bitcoins. It's possible the Japanese government more or less can't even lift a finger in this situation without making "waves."

Note that is is not an "explanation", just a "theory".  Precise language is preferable.    Many others are possible, but this one seems more likely to me.

The boundaries of theft and fraud are kinda fuzzy, and they often overlap.  I could say that buying bitcoins from customers with non-existent money was fraud, taking possession of those coins was theft.

In that theory, the CNY from the sale of those coins may have been confiscated by the Chinese government, may be sitting in an account of a Chinese exchange, may have been withdrawn by Willy's owner or by an accomplice.  In the latter case, the money may be in possession of any person involved, in CNY or laundered into other currencies.

In that theory, at least one of the Chinese exchange managers must have been aware of the massive transfers from MtGOX.  However, at the time it probably looked legitimate arbitrage.  The fault was that the arbitrager stole the coins from MtGOX clients, instead of buying them with real dollars; and the Chinese need not have been aware of that.

From the perspective of the Chinese government, during Nov/2013 the amateur Chinese traders imported at least a million  totally unproductive pieces of nothing, without going through customs, and were about to pay the equivalent of half a billion dollars or more in CNY to foreign sellers.  Obviously the PBoC must have been extremely unhappy about that.  So, in my mind it is not unlikely that one of the goals of the December decrees was to block this sizable leak in their national trade balance and prevent that pile of CNY from leaving the country.

According to your explanation, someone in China must be sitting on a huge pile of stranded yuan that they got for selling their unpaid-for bitcoins extracted from Mt. Gox. If in fact this is where the monetary value of the missing bitcoins and dollar balances ended up, and said missing property fails to ever be restored to the Mt. Gox trustee, would this not constitute theft on the part of the CNY holder(s)? Assuming it is so, then it contradicts the Tokyo police claim that insider fraud was at the root of the Mt. Gox collapse and not mere theft. There is a rather fine line between theft and fraud, yet nevertheless this is probably one instance in which precise language would be preferable.

The report explains it: Willy, or a robot that behaved very much like it, started selling BTC instead of buying BTC, apparently after the price crashed.

In my theory, that would be expected: Willy was doing arbitrage between MtGOX and some Chinese exchange, and the Chinese exchanges were leading the price.  Then willy should buy while the price was rising (because the price in China would be higher than at MtGOX) and sell while the price was crashing (when China was lower).

My guess is that, during the rally, Willy had been buying real BTC with non-existing USD.  The owner hoped to get the CNY out for China at a later time, and fill the USD hole in MtGOX's accounting (with profit) before anyone noticed. Later, during the crash, the reversed Willy would have been selling non-existent BTC (since the real ones had been already sold in China) for USD in the client accounts.  Although these were mostly nonexistent USD, the trades still made sense because they reduced the size of the USD hole that Willy's owner would have to fill, whicle creating a BTC hole of a somewhat smaller value  (because of the China-MtGOX spread).

But (still my guess) the CNY were not taken out of China, either intentionally or due to some snag (the PBoC decrees, default by the Chinese accomplice, whatever). So MtGOX was left with huge BTC and USD holes, an the rest is history.

Beware about putting too much weight on the "Willy report" by that investigative firm.  It is entirely based on the leaked database, which was copied by parties unknown sometime before the final collapse.  We do not know whether the leaked copy is reliable; it may have been doctored and leaked specifically to shift the attention away from the real facts and culprits.  Indeed, we now know that the copy that the police got from the servers was incomplete (or worse).  The leaked database included records of deposits and withdrawals, but the firm has no way of checking whether those records match the actual deposits and withdrawals. In particular, AFAIK the blockchain addresses that received the BTC widthrawals were not leaked. (The police has bank records, and should have those addresses, hopefully.)

See: Report: Mt Gox Data Provides More Clues to Trading Bot 'Willy'
http://www.coindesk.com/report-mt-gox-data-provides-more-clues-to-trading-bot-willy
It's mostly a rehash of the Willy Report, but this seemed new to me:

I've never heard anything before about a "reverse Willy". If there was any short selling going on with all of the coins purchased by Willy and Markus, perhaps "reverse Willy" was involved in unloading them. Anyone know anything about this reverse bot?

Mt Gox was in the hole cashwise by the end of February, so what happened to all the USD supposedly accumulated by  "reverse Willy"? Follow the money!

and as the days goes by nothing new as i know...
any news around the web??? anybody???

I'll have to give a qualified "no" on that, since I wasn't there to hear, but my understanding is the judge shut-down Der-Yeghiayan's testimony, and instructed the jury to ignore most of the rest. Suffice it to say, MK was a lead suspect, so far as being the mastermind behind SR, before the investigation begun to focus in on Ulbricht as the key person of interest. It would be interesting to hear this agent's side of the story even though he was never really allowed to testify very much. Not sure how it relates to the Mt. Gox collapse, if it even does.

do you know the asnwer on that because i don't

The judge declared Der-Yeghiayan's testimony all hearsay, didn't she? Was this agent ever given a chance to testify about the details of this meeting?

since ancient egypt cat's where thought to be unique animals - gods...
where did that cat comes from?
he has bitcoins inside her mind...

Could this cat have made a deal that if she is held immune from prosecution (being caged), then somehow those missing coins may turn up?

If the amount of posts on this forum and proceedings in the real world were related, the world would be a different place.

Someone who had access...

What does that tell you? 

It's one year later, and the only thing so far the police have said is that they believe 99% of them disappeared through insider fraud.

MK is still a free man, so apparently he has never been implicated. Then, who dun it? Miss Scarlett, Colonel Mustard,...??