Topic: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] - page 26. (Read 908459 times)

Ok. Let's get the facts straight.

1. There were legitimate accounts with all their data verified, even received their physical "MtGox Keys".
2. There were some accounts that were NOT verified, yet again they were able to transact and their accounts were active with real BTC/Money.
3. There were the ghost accounts like Willy and Markus bots which were used by someone to pump and dump the price in order (if we believe the report that recently went out) to manipulate the virtual BTCs and get some Real ones because the MtGox was working on fractional reserve.

Cases #1 and #2 were actual accounts that (even if the 2nd was not verified by the owner) are -even now- able to be matched as non-zero and their transactions could be verified by the log files. The key here is that those accounts should have -at some point, at least once- withdrawn and/or deposited to some other external account. This would have been visible on the ledger and thus would have been verifiable by the time and date of the logged transaction.

In the (rare?) case that the 2nd type of account cannot verify their transactions fall directly to type #3 account.

TL;DR:
We ought to make clear what's real and what's not. There are people for that, doing that for a living; most possible Kobayiashi has them working for him and up until now, got the aforementioned data in his hands as we speak (or he will at some point at the future). For the *REAL* accounts there should be *REAL* rewards as they deserve it. For the fake ones we just forget about it.

PS:
The above expresses just my personal thoughts and nothing more.

Can you, or anyone else, say any more about these alleged "ghost" accounts? For example, would you consider the phony ones used by Willy and Markus bots to be ghost? Of the 650,000 BTC that went missing, how many of these were held in such accounts? That seems like a very important point that distinguishes Mt. Gox from the typical Ponzi set-up. How would the ghosts accounts be handled by the trustee--pay them off in ghost bitcoins?

Jorge, I'm sorry to insist too, but I find no difference between "say MY opinion of what would be fair" and "I was trying to guess what KOBAYASHI may decide, by trying to place myself in his place and looking at the situation as HE is probably seeing it, with the constraints that HE may have". We're expressing our ideas concerning a matter which we've never had the chance to intimately inspect nor we know the internal procedures. Maybe it's due to my cultural behaviour, but this is called "I say my opinion" where I live.

Now; for starters, I never took Kobayashi as M.K. replacement. He was ordered by the Judge to do a specific job and I expect him to do it the fairest way possible for ALL the people involved. That includes Mark Karpeles as well as myself and about (allegedly) 1,000,000 customers. He doesn't owe us anything, but an explanation - or better - some clear directions on where the situation is going. This  has been performed poorly IMHO so far and I have reasons to believe that it's not (only) his fault...

Second; I don't fool myself that I or any other involved have a saying against Kobayashi's practices or he even cares what we think (or ask him to do). The colourful metaphor about the liver transplant pretty much draws it out what Kobayashi's role is in the case of the "patient" MtGox. We're just close relatives to the patient and care to see what's there to be done in order for the patient to live. He may as well declare that the patient is dead and start donating the organs to others for that matter.

Third; I concur that he's in a difficult position and that I wouldn't want to be at his place. The idea of yours to liquidate as a ponzi scheme is valid, but I don't think it will move this way eventually. If it was that simple, everything would've been over by now and we wouldn't discuss it at the moment. As per the "traditional" receipts; I remind you that every transaction from fiat->MtGox BTCs is at people's Bank Account statements. For instance, I can tell you the exact time I've sent money to MtGox, when I withdrawn BTCs out and I believe that ANY VERIFIED member can prove those claims as well. Besides, it works both ways; they have them also.

So, finally there are 2 parts in the equation: We have the REAL people that gave REAL money to buy BTCs off MtGox and we have a bunch of "ghost" accounts, un-verified, that allegedly bought and sold millions of dollars in BTCs and require a share of the pie. Now please tell me; if it was you in the place of Kobayashi; would you be treating the same both parts?

Sorry to insist, but I was not trying to say MY opinion of what would be fair, which is totally irrelevant to the situation.  I was trying to guess what KOBAYASHI may decide, by trying to place myself in his place and looking at the situation as HE is probably seeing it, with the constraints that HE may have.  Which should be your priority too.  

Another thing that seems to escape the victims is that Kobayashi is not Mark's replacement.  Mark was the owner of MtGOX, he took your money with certain promises, and therefore he had the obligation to answer your queries promptly, take your demands into account, and make good on his promises.  So it was quite proper to pester him and tell him what you wanted him to do.  But Kobayashi is not the owner of MtGOX, does not owe you anything, and does not have to listen to your wishes.  He works for the Judge, and his obligation is to make the Judge happy by distributing the spoils of MtGOX in a way that the Judge will find fair, respecting all laws and rules.

So, you cannot demand and expect attention from Kobayashi as you were entitled to demand and expect from Mark.  Indeed, the very purpose of bankruptcy protection laws is to stop creditors from banging at the door. The law tells creditors to sit quietly and orderly over there, spell out their claims to the trustee through some standard forms, wait for him to figure out who should get what, and accept the decision once it has been approved by the Judge (subject to legal appeal mechanisms of course).

If you want to improve your chances of getting information from Kobayashi, you should ASK what he intends to do (not tell him what you want him to do); in a formal, polite and humble written letter, not by email or on forums; and preferably a letter written and signed by your lawyer, who will know how to ask meaningful questions with the proper terms.  

If you are about to get a liver transplant, you don't tell the surgeon where you would like to be cut, and you cannot expect him to discuss the details of the procedure with you.  If you have valid concerns, you had better tell them to your doctor, and let him talk to surgeon.  

I don't know, but I guess that Kobayashi deeply regreets having accepted this task.  To begin with, MtGOX was not an ordinary manufacturer or merchant, but a huge ponzi-like scheme; I wonder whether his experience as bankruptcy trustee includes any ponzi.  Claims against a normal company are usually straightforward: "I sent them 20 electric wastebaskets priced at 150 dollars each, here is the invoice, they did not pay me; so I want 3000 dollars".  Claims against a ponzi are like "I deposited 150 dollars, then clicked buttons on their interface hundreds of times, and the interface said that those 150 dollars became 30000 dollars; so I want 30000 dollars".  

Then there is the fact that MtGOX had a huge number of small clients (70'000 minimally active accounts, IIRC) scattered all over the world, who interacted with the company through web interfaces rather than traditional invoices and receipts.  Then there is the fact that MtGOX did not have real accounting for the client balances and trades, just a database operated by buggy and ever-changing programs.  Then Kobayashi found that everything was messed up by a sophisticated and long-running cybercrime that took half a billion dollars from the company's assets, and may or may not have involved complicity of the management...

Kobayashi certainly will not lose money; he will charge suitable fees for his work, subject only to the Judge's  approval.  At least he is doing the parts of the job that must be more familiar to him, such as requesting the return of MtGOX money that Mark loaned to himself, and forcing the bankruptcy of Tibanne, the company that Mark had set up to shield himself from MtGOX's collapse. (Since Mark formally worked for Tibanne who provided manpower services to MtGOX, the money that he made from MtGOX through Tibanne should have been safe from the inevitable bankruptcy of the exchange -- so he may have thought.)  You can see those actions, and the fees paid to Kobayashi and all consultants that he hired, in the reports posted on the MtGOX site.  (Note that each document there has a full and fairly good English translation, at the end of the same PDF file.)

Considering the complexity of the case, the lack of instructions for claim filing, the state of the Tibanne lawsuit, and the fact that the police investigation is still running, I think it is quite likely that Kobayashi will ask the Judge for another extension, which the Judge will probably grant.

Yes, I've read them carefully. Unfortunately, if the db is doctored then the results are (possibly) meaningless. If we accept that this was the original db though, there are blind spots which -even with their expertise- they were unable to find. As a side note I cannot leave aside the fact that the db they have in hand MAY has been "leaked" purposely in order someone could deliver their aforementioned assumptions.

Frankly, I don't think this goes anywhere but here. We can talk all we like, write millions of lines about it, but the bottom line is that we won't EVER be able to guess what *REALLY* happened. I find this alone a great liability, since as I've mentioned before here on this forum, I don't trust any exchange. The coins I've left into any of them are considered by myself as "possibly lost". That means I never leave in there anymore than I can afford to lose.

And I mean EVERY exchange. No exceptions.

You may have seen these reports perhaps?

http://blog.wizsec.jp/2015/04/the-missing-mtgox-bitcoins.html

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0694b99c-e647-11e4-ab4e-00144feab7de,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F0694b99c-e647-11e4-ab4e-00144feab7de.html%3Fsiteedition%3Dintl&siteedition=intl&_i_referer=#axzz3XlA5R9hf

I can't read the second article because of the paywall. 

Those WizSec guys did a lot of good work, especially their analysis of the blockchain.  However, as they admit, their primary data is the leaked database, which is incomplete and may have been doctored by whoever leaked it.  There is not much that they can do without access to the MTGox wallet files, bank statements, and customer IDs (or even with them, perhaps). 

Imagine someone who wants to find out why a million dollars is missing from a bank account, given only a partial and possibly incorrect list of the deposits and withdrawals, without names.  The strictly honest and obvious answer would be "it cannot be done"; but the guy goes ahead and tries to write up something anyway.  That is how I see their work...

I've bolded out the important part for you. You have a valid point but you're missing the major one. THERE'S NO ANNOUNCEMENT yet. So, in the meanwhile everyone has the right to express his feelings/estimation of what will happen. I never said that "what I thought would be possible to happen"; I said "what I'd WANTED to happen". There's a difference. You posted your opinion as well. We agree to disagree. Let's see what happens in the end.


Well, that's not gonna happen; and you know it better than me. The secrecy involved in this matter, plus the fact that's been over a year now that the incident occurred AND NO ONE CAN TELL FOR SURE what has happened, must tell us a lot. I'm not less pessimistic than you on the matter. What I posted was my own thoughts, what I think would have been fair. Nothing more.

Nevertheless, I don't think that life is fair at all. Especially to small fish like me. Maybe it's fairer to the bigger ones... ie: M.K. who knows? only time will tell.

Lots of work, but no conclusions. Too much secrecy.

http://blog.wizsec.jp/2015/04/the-missing-mtgox-bitcoins.html

Well, the website does explicitly say that you should not presume that:


That is one reason why the claims should not be based on the final balances: in the final weeks, many users felt forced to do bad trades (e.g. selling their coins at 20% of the external market price) because they were led to believe that they could only get yen or dollars out.  Other clients profited from their despair to acquire lots of coins at that ridiculos prices.  The coins have lost value since then, but it is not clear who profited from those "unnatural" trades. 

Even for clients who did not trade in those last few days, their final balances are the resut of trading in an false (probably fraudulent)  market, so their gains or losses were probably affected by fraud (even if unknowingly).  For example, MtGOX's price was significantly higher than the outside market for many months.  It is conjectured that some client was buying coins (probably through the "Willy" robot) with non-existent money; and that the missing coins were already missing by then.  So, profits made by trading inside MtGOX may have been bogus because they were built by trading non-existent coins and money, at prices that were distorted by the fraud.

To me, those distortions make the deposits-minus-withdrawals criterion seems a logical necessity in cases like MtGOX.

Imagine a soccer match were one of the goals happens to be 20% wider than the other, and the diference is discovered only after the game is over.  There is no way to adjust the score after the fact to make it fair: that 20% difference in size may have affected the game in all sorts of ways, not just increased the score by 20%.  The only fair decision would be to cancel that match and play it again.

My misunderstanding. First posts in threads like these tend to come from less than genuine sources. Sorry that this is the topic that transitions you from lurker to poster.

I hope you have favorable results in the future, though with crypto, don't get your hopes up for good news in matters like this.

Best of luck.

Presumed based on the fact on what the online database -that everyone is able to login with his account credentials- presents. Otherwise what is it there for? Pardon me, but I wouldn't like that as a victim as you propose. I'd like the possibility to get back about 4000eur which I tried to withdraw back then and wasn't able to. On the contrary I've been offered to buy back some of my coins (at the time it was a bit more expensive) and I got trapped with only some virtual coins which I couldn't withdraw either.


Doctored or not, there is proof for all the transactions we've made (I personally have an electronic copy of every single one). So; I guess if I'm able to cross-match, mr Kobayashi should be able to do it too. As per the artificial balances and/or non verified accounts, I'd rule all of them as fake unless the owner(s) have proof that they're actually theirs (good luck with that)...

Hey majeis, you just haven't read my post carefully enough...
It was not a question of "getting my coins just fine" but only of logging in there to check my balance...

Erm, "presumed" in what sense?  That is probably what the victims expect and would like, but the point is that the law and/or legal precedents seem to be different -- and they woudl prevail over the victims' convictions about "right".  (The MtGOX website warns that the balance is provided only for information, and should NOT be assumed to be the claim.)

Not to mention that, according to what I have read, the database has been doctored and/or some of the trades recorded i it are not legitimate.  If that is the case, those balances cannot be taken into account.  Even if your balance is correct according to your accounting, if other people's balances are artificially inflated, your refund would be diminished.  Ditto if some large accounts are owned by MtGOX managers or associates (they should not get any refunds).


I don't know, but If the claims are defined as deposits minus withdrawals, clients may have to submit at least a list of such actions with dates.  Also, I gather that there are old accounts without full ID information, or may have been created with bogus IDs. 

Good points. To the most significant one; a valid claim is presumed that will be based on the balance that each client had at the time the closure happened (ie: the balance you have now on your account). The problem is that they're short on coins. On the other hand they're (allegedly) have to give A LOT of fiat back. As per the 1 month period and the "valid claim", I don't buy it.

Besides; what's more valid than a customer that it was mandatory to prove his ID, residence, etc in order to become a member in Gox? Don't you find it overemphasized? Too many aspects are so damn wrong in there... and the sad thing is that I don't see it become any better; yes. Even when the deadline is passed...

The deadline for victims to file claims was 2015-05-25, right?  That is only 1 month away, and AFAIK Mr. Kobayashi has yet to tell former MtGOX clients what will constitute a valid claim, and what they will have to provide in order to prove that they are entitled to it.

Perhaps you may have noticed my bazillion warnings that "your claim" may not be just your balance in the MtGOX ledgers at some random date, but instead the difference between what you deposited and what you withdrew, with the market price *at the time* used to evaluate BTC deposits and withdrawals.  AFAIK, the latter method, rather than the account balances, has been used in similar cases, such as the Madoff ponzi liquidation. 

But it seems that no one is worried by that question, because apparently no one has thought of asking Mr. Kobayashi which of the two alternatives he will use.  It seems that everybody is still convinced that the preferences of the victims will prevail over the laws, the legal precedents, and the trustee's preferences.

I don't even fell like saying "good luck to you" any more...

I don't see funds coming out from Gox. The only viable solution on the matter would be the MtGox->Kraken transition but -unfortunately- I don't see it happening anytime soon. The authorities have no comment on the matter, M.K. is nowhere to be found and if you ask the guys at Kraken they say "we're in the (negotiation) process". As many here before me have mentioned, "there is a LOT we don't know" and I bet, there's more that we don't even imagine. 

haha alright, i was like dufuuq do we get out money back

Thought it was apparent I was being sarcastic what with replying to a single-post user about something that should be clear to everyone 

Nevermind.

What do you mean by "Everyone else can get their coins just fine" ?

Nope. Everyone else can get their coins just fine. Check out the movement on that market! https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/mtgox/btcusd

You should contact that guy that lost 10k btc on this thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/10k-btc-accidentally-lost-may-be-somebody-could-help-me-find-them-1028032