Topic: My greatest fear about Bitcoin Halving. - page 2. (Read 1008 times)

That's for people to find out about what will be the possible outcome on next halving because not every halving will show the same pump percentage and it always shows different price angle. But what's good thing about that still we see some positive movements and the only thing we need to do is to follow the market updates so that we will also do what other do when they decide to take their profit.


Yeah support will be their once price will starting to increase since provably are in accumulating mode so those things will be build up especially when many people frequently set their buy orders.

Nothing to be afraid of, regardless of whatever happens in 2024, i think it makes no sense to start to worry over the unknown, what be the outcome of the price of bitcoin after 2024's halving is not in our hands to control, neither is there any body out there that controls it, if 2024 halving come and go without a bull run, bitcoin remains bitcoin and nothing will change that, those who would sell would sell and those would buy would buy, life will continue to go on and bitcoin will continue to make money for those who know their way around trading.

Most people misrake the hype that bitcoin halving brings as the only reason why it will increase in value. Which is true to some degree don't get me wrong. But apart from that, the main reason why bitcoin's price increase and why hype around it rises is the fact that it halves the circulating supply of bitcoin in the market, effectively increasing the demand for the coin and in result the price. So will there be a time whe bitcoin halving comes and the price doesn't move? Yes. But that will be when bitcoin stops getting transactions and users to support. As long as there is support and users, bitcoin will remain valuable.

Many people misunderstood the second part of my statement.  Well in the OP, the first part of the statement was used to express my fears while the second part was just a figure of speech used to imply the kind of force which would replace the force of halving bull run incase it fails.
Anyways, I have read some reasons to believe that halving bull run will not fail. Let us believe with facts that it will not fail because if it does, it won't be easy

Of course, there's bound to be lot of hype about the halving and people are getting ready to kick it. The most likely possibility would be  price increase, but as to how big it would be everyone would be wondering.

This cycle is very likely to repeat itself, but of course we need enough support to get through the previous ATH. The history of the creation of the highest price is almost certain to be achieved in every halving cycle, but until now no one can really say for sure. We are only between one belief, that the halving can bring more demand for bitcoin so that the highest price can be reached.

No guarantee but halving effect gives big hype so most provably we can still see some great movements since when this time people always look forward for the growth. Many people hodl at the moment for that event so when there so many people are talking about pump this where the hype starts and it follows all positive changes. We don't see a halving effect didn't get a negative scene so maybe dump at that time is not possible to see.

2024, a Halving without a Bull run seems weird bro I don't believe this all as every time market fads occur and it's natural also these fads are temporary. On the second point of the US Bitcoin regulation, I think it's early to consider that the USA or any major country is going to make Bitcoin a legal tender except for Russia. China has its own agenda of Digital Yuan and for the USA and European countries, i think it's quite hard to accept the BTC as legal tender for many reasons market domination in the economy is a major one.

The halving policy that occurs every four years and expected to occur April next year, I predict it will be a kind of different from the ones that have happened in the past  due to the way people now invest massively in bitcoin and it might make the rise in price a bit low and for a long term.

I don't have a fear about the halving policy that will happen next year all  am doing now is buying as many as I can buy now so by next year we see what happens

Honestly, yes it is true there will be some chance that halving can't give us that peak like what it did last time. If we are looking to the outside scenario many miners quit their mining activities due to electricity cost and maybe because they can't mine too much now maybe because of the speed? I am not expert in this thing but on the other side as well, recession will come many normal people like me can't afford buying in big amount only enterprises and whales can buy in bulk and must be ready to the halving. It can go up of course since from what I am seeing we are still in the phase of recovery.

Actually halving means the mining reward of bitcoin is get half and then then selling pressure from miners is cuts in half then market supply is less and demand is increasing therefore BTC price is pumping and then FOMO comes many investors and institutes buys bitcoin and this create a high demand on btc in market results high pumps and traders not selling because of hype and people coming day by day , trends starts on social media results of market breaks his all time high .

If I am not wrong, More scarcity means fewer bitcoins on the market, and it will pump up the price of the Bitcoin.
I heard if you sent bitcoins to an address that doesn't have access to anyone, and it's lost. This matter helps bitcoin to grow up in price as well. How strong this statement it is? I didn't believe this at that time. But, If scarcity affed the price, That's mean it's kind of true. What do you think about it?

Bitcoin will be in a  bull run in 2024 prior to Bitcoin halving and peaking in 2025, the history of the Bitcoin cycle is one of the references that it is possible to happen.  It does not only happen once but twice - thrice already.

I agree that no one can precisely predict the future but we can always speculate, something like an intelligent guess with some proof of historical references of Bitcoin four year cycle.


It is a domino effect.  First, the miner will be affected because of the reduced block reward but later on miners adjust their prices affecting the market.  At the end even the retailer and buyers are affected by this Bitcoin halving

Feer nothing until you have got the key to your wallet. Each price change is temporary. You just have to take a decision when exactly you wish to get free from your crypto. Everyone expect something special from Bitcoin halving, but nothing major really happens before and after it. Bull or bear market runs have nothing to do with halving imho. These are just periods that happens uncontrollably and unpredictably imho.

I think this will cause a big problem and panic in market. The 2024 halving is considered to be the biggest hype factor that could drive the market and Of course, there's always the possibility that the US government could make Bitcoin a legal currency, which would definitely be a game-changer and will create more hype and we will see new ATH for Bitcoin.

Actually, it can be. History proves this since the creation of Bitcoin. It is also logical for miners economically (explained in my post above yours). The halving is also one of the economic factors encoded into Bitcoin that helps propel it as the need for it inevitably continues to rise. As banks, institutions and fiat money continue to evidently deteriorate, this only brings more certainty (not financial advice). There are variables like adversary response or action toward the market, though these variables never proved to be effective in the past and there is not much reason to support that they would be permanently effective now.

Miners are the ones who are most effected by the halving. I am not saying that they manipulate the price, but I will say that it is "oddly coincidental" that around each halving the price tends to rally. Usually after the halving, as the market expects prices to go up at the moment it happens (the market tends to do the opposite of what people expect). The fact is, if prices don't go up, eventually miner revenue/profit goes down significantly and operations start to become less viable to run. If there is a cheaper energy source that manages to power their operations at a much cheaper price, maybe the price won't tend to rally as the cheaper energy source will make up for the change in revenue. I doubt this though. I believe that the halving is one of the economic encodings in securing bitcoin's market value in the long term.

to explain loyces thing in detail
its not about market custody/reserves. its about the amount of coin on offer on a market orderbook listing thats being processed that second.

it doesnt matter how many coins are in circulation or custodianised on a market..
the price is not linked to coins in circulation/custody

it only matters what amount of coin is offered to the present buyer for the present buyers amount of fiat
and that does not have to be whole coins. it can be decimal amounts

thus its nothing like the nasdaq "shares" economics of needing to sell whole shares
..
how much is offered on a current orderbook listing being processed that second is also a decision where

its the underlying cheapest cost of acquisition(mining cost of most efficient miners. that set a bench underlying value no one wants to sell below)

and then on the market even if a market only has 200k btc or 575k btc custodianised people speculate above that underlying value..
...


EG
2012 had 10.5m coins in circulation
               mtgox had 200k coins
              
2023 has 19m coins in circulation
               binance has 575k coins

yet this (high school 'nasdaq' economics(facepalm)) would suggest more supply = lower price

but no. because miners costs per coin is the main underlying decider of a non zero bottom, the price went up on the market that speculate above the non zero bottom

EG if buyer in 2012 only offered $500 they would get~100btc
EG if buyer in 2023 only offered $500 they would get~0.02btc

because the cheapest bitcoin mining is X means everyone refuses to sell below X
and its this X that has increased in cost over the years due to more difficult hash cost requirement and also less reward offered for that hashing cost

As theymos put it a couple of years back: it takes a while to feel the scarcity. Eventually, there will be less new bitcoins on the market, and that affects the price.

Most commonly halving effects can be experienced by 1 year after the event. The expectations is that by 2025 bitcoin will be in a new bull season, towards a new ATH. It's true there are no guarantees, but I'm pretty confident that prediction is going to come true by looking the degraded state of fiat currencies, the adoption of CBDCs by governments, lack of trust from average citizens in centralized parties and institutions, and trust plus reputation bitcoin has been building since the beginning.

I get your point; tendencies of occuring the other way around. But we cannot do anything about it if that's the case. The market price is volatile so for sure there'll be other periods to anticipate other than Bitcoin halving. But to somehow lessen your worries, majority of people are expecting for a huge thing in the next fork and that is already something to consider, such that the market price of not only Bitcoin but also with others. The market price of cryptos are dependent with the demand solely. So if there is already a hype then the demand should be expected to be high, likewise with market prices. But if you're that worried, then wait for the right time to enter; once there is a clear sign of bullish run.