Topic: My greatest fear about Bitcoin Halving. - page 4. (Read 979 times)

You've been on this market for a while now and you arent still get used to with halving event and possible market trend after or before that? We cant really make out conclusions whether it does
really give out huge effect or not.We dont know that it doesnt really happen on point but rather it do happens on several months after such event which means that we dont know if the halving
is the main reason on why such bull run did happen or there are other possible reasons.This is why its better not to make yourself get stressed on whatever things that do happen
on the halving event because its not always necessary that the market would really be making a move.

Nah, I think it will be fine. I think there will be a bull run simply because people expect it to happen. But even if nothing big will happens after the halving, I don't think anything will change.

It is not just a mere believe by bitcoiner or forum members but this has to do with demand and supply. When the next halving sets in it will reduce the mining incentives and as well reduce the possible supply. Except the demand for Bitcoin doesn't increase but if it does then the boom is inevitable.

I am trying hard not to believe the bullish move experienced in January is not a preparation for the Bull run that will be experienced in 2024. But that aside. Only one thing will resist Bitcoin from experiencing a bull run which is limited demand. But as long as the demand increases it will be greenish even if it doesn't sum up to what was experienced in 2021 but it can't go bearish not after the halving.

This fear is right if you compare it with the last having and the current situation of the market because mostly after any bitcoin halving we had a price fall for months and this will increase fear in the market because the market situation is not stable on that time and due to this instability people will usually wait and stop doing emotional actions and then we can have the price reaching higher levels and bull run starting on the market but since so far we had one of the worst price falls of bitcoin none knows what's going to happen on the incoming halving of bitcoin to the price.
 

Even if there is no bull run, I think there will still be a noticeable increase that will happen because the properties of halving makes Bitcoin scarcer. Don't you worry as it won't cause a serious problem but just a little disappointment although that doesn't make the people quit on buying and hodling a Bitcoin.

What can truly cause a panic is when Bitcoin itself has experienced a major issue, a bug or something that it won't likely be fixed anymore but I think the possibility of that to happen is only slim since Bitcoin is over 13 years old already. IDK if what makes you think that 2024 is the greatest halving when there are more halvings to come after this. There is always another chance and even not in the halving day, bull run can still come.

If you think the bull run is guaranteed go happen I fear that you will lose a lot of money when it does not come and you start panic selling because it is not guaranteed.  Every halving should have less of a impact then the one before because less btc is available to everyone that could cause a increase in btc but it probably will not be like a bull run but something that increases gradually.

I don't understand the mystery behind having a bull run after bitcoin halving, but I've experienced a bull run after halving and it was predicted that bitcoin would skyrocket after the 2020 halving. The price didn't move up immediately, and it's something you should understand, it may not move that same year or even after 2 years but the bull run is certain to happen. Trusting an immediate spike in price of bitcoin after halving can lead to reckless investment from investors that don't understand the market, hoping to make huge profits. However, halving adds more bitcoin to the market and at same time divide miners rewards, that means the price will definitely increase as people will buy because of scarcity.

You should not expect that halving will immediately affect the price of bitcoin, there is no evidence that halving affects the price, but logically, the deflationary model should eventually lead to an increase in the price. The price of bitcoin will rise because more and more people want to own bitcoin, and this will inevitably create high demand, because as we all know, the quantity of coins is limited.

HOLD will save everything, no one does better than HOLD and believe that high price targets will be hit. Those who dumped out in a panic after the halving ended will regret it when Price reaches a new ATH. Bitcoin will continue to grow over time, there will be a lot of adoption and use of bitcoin in the future. The 4th halving this time will be the moment we have been waiting for.

The jury is still out on whether Bitcoin halving is crucial when it comes to bull runs. There weren't many of them to analyse the correlations, and it wasn't all clear-cut, as sometimes the bull run came way later or earlier, so I honestly don't believe in a strong connection or anything close to a causal relation here. Why worry about 2024 if the bull run might hit in 2023?
I don't see the USA making Bitcoin a legal tender any time soon, but I don't think Bitcoin needs it to grow and, especially, to recover.

People say this every halving, that it might not have any effect on the price. If something is in demand & you halve the supply then it is going to become more valuable. It always takes a little while for the full effect of diminished supply to be shown in price but it always happens. This will be my 3rd cycle coming up, I’ve seen it all before.
We will see a 6 figure bitcoin price before the end of 2025.

Though there's still a possibility when you checked its past histories when the Bullrun seasons come, it always creates some kind of ATH even after a year of bitcoin halving but this scenario is still unsure that's why it's your own decision whether you believe it or not because if you want to earn when Bullruns happens, you need to have courage and trust yourself about it. But if you have doubt you can also stop investing but don't regret or put the blame on anybody when you see the price will rise and create another ATH because, after all, it's your own idea not to invest.

And you wanted to get rid of BTC at the first opportunity? Once Bitcoin reaches new heights? But what about HODL?   If not for this halving, then for another, BTC will grow. Sooner or later.

There is still a lot of time before the halving, and during this period, more than one positive news may appear, which will be the catalyst for the start of a new bullrun. As far as I know, the bullrun usually didn't happen right after the halving and it took some extra time.

I think US government will have to make btc a legal tende , if it happens, will be the most powerful impetus for new growth, and this event alone will be enough.

You can be afraid and nervous, or you can't be afraid and relax. Why spoil your mood ahead of time.

I don't use Chat GPT even though I have never used it. But I heard it's not up to date. Well, I wasn't aware of it. I didn't know if people would still be able to mine Bitcoins when there were no. If transaction fees fuel it, I am not sure how profitable it will be. Miners may lose interest.


Yeah, I believe in the next Decade Bitcoin will gain price couple of times more, and we will see new ATH Every few years. I won't be able to see that because I won't be alive forever.

People who think that the price of bitcoin cannot increase will not be able to make big profits and many of them will even lose because they can't wait for the price to go up high. And even if they could sell their bitcoins, they would not have the opportunity to sell at the peak because once the price goes up, they will sell it and not think the price will keep going up.

Currently, bitcoin is still in the price recovery phase, so we can use it to buy more. And hopefully, all of us who have bought bitcoin at the previous low or current price can get the maximum profit.

Basically it means you mine Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency at same time. The other cryptocurrency rely on Bitcoin mining security, where no change is needed on Bitcoin protocol/consensus. If you really curious about it, i'd recommend you to read https://blog.bitmex.com/the-growth-of-bitcoin-merge-mining/.

1.Bitcoin halving creates hype and many traders are buying BTC before the halving simply because they expect the price to grow after the halving. This creates demand, which pumps the price. I don't know what could potentially stop a bull wave after the Bitcoin halving. Probably massive amounts of FUD propaganda and/or a global Bitcoin ban.
2.Nobody knows what will happen in 2024. I don't expect the US government to make BTC a legal tender, but I also don't expect a mass Bitcoin /crypto ban. Perhaps the status quo regarding crypto legislation and regulations will remain pretty much the same in 2023 and 2024.

the actual effects are delayed by upto a year due to how the big industrial miners operate their accounting/costbase

they dont pander to daily price whims nor react to social drama's they have hardware lifecycles of 2+ years and electric contracts of 6month-2 years so they mine no matter what. and when its time to upgrade hardware/renew electric contracts (periodically) they look at how much coin accumulation vs cost. to then set their sell rates of previous periods accumulation
selling previous period accumulation while building up current/next period accumulation

(unlike home/hobby miners that can save money by just switching off asics as they pay monthly and so can save on electric bills and be on the market buy sentiment when prices are low)

the ATH have had more links correlation to mining activity than to social drama
EG
2011 was GPU pooling ramp up of costs compared to previous years solo CPU costs
2013 was first asic ramp up of costs compared to previous years of GPU costs
2016 was next gen asics (from ghash to thash)
2020 was next gen asics (over 100thash on small nm chips of only a could kwh)

those things changed the dynamics of how profitable/costly it was to mine meaning changing mindsets if people should mine to sell, vs market-buy low to sell high

changing the market sentiment

thers some economics dynamics at play
EG first release of next gen mining hardware only benefits the first delivery recipients with better efficiencies where they dont get hit by halving cost changes(lower cost plus more hashpower gives them best overall position). and it takes months-year for majority of network to upgrade to gain efficiency. by which time the hashrate has then climbed which then outpasses that initial efficiency gain of that first delivery recipient so then everyones costs go up due to the higher hash competition thus its about a year later before the true extent of the halving has settled into the new higher cost brackets

---

EG
if it costs say industrial iceland $16k to mine..
if it costs say industrial america $19.5k to mine..
if it costs say residential iceland $26.5k to mine..
if it costs say residential america $29.5k to mine..
if it costs say industrial europe $32.5k to mine..
.. and so on
if it costs say residential hawaii $90k to mine..

you can then start to see the sentiment zones of bitcoiners "switch" from hobby miner to personal buyer
(in industrial miners case they still mine. but if they have excess cash they buy while cheap too(when its cheap))

you can see that hawaii(germany/japan near that top too), if they have a good bitcoin community(population count) they are always going to be on the market buy sentiment as its always cheaper to buy rather than mine
so they are the ones remaining in the markets willing to buy even when the market is high. where as iceland are on a mega selling experience at that same high

The "Halving" in my experience ..only had a very small influence on the Bitcoin price.. just a week or a few days before it happens. The media attention in the weeks before the Halving, cause some hype in the markets.. but it is actually insignificant. 

The Halving are definitely not a trigger for a new ATH, so I do not know where you have seen that.  The previous spikes in the price to a new ATH, was events like the ICO explosion on social media and large countries accepting Bitcoin as legal tender. 

Indeed, 2 more years is the right time to see events like last 2021, but indeed different things will happen here and the most striking thing is the charts which will definitely not be the same. But so far bitcoin is in a period of silence and there are no very volatile movements.