My greatest fear about Bitcoin Halving. - page 3.

BigBos

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Quote from: KingsDen on January 31, 2023, 04:00:34 AM

Bitcoin halving is characterised by price boom and this is a general believe of some bitcoiners and members of this forum.
My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?

I don't think it's going to be a big bang the volatility will be the same in general as it was years ago because no whales have that many bitcoins and again the investors are in different countries in different time zones definitely not going to be a boom down like you described, secondly there may be bitcoins that have lots of bitcoins for the next 5-10 years not for the 2024 halving.
Talking about the bull run, there must be like what we saw in the last 2 weeks of January, I think that includes the bull run, I think the bull run will go like that.

AverageGlabella

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Quote from: Poker Player on February 02, 2023, 12:34:36 AM

he nearer future, say the next 2 or 3 halvings, I am sure there will be bull runs.

I think you will probably be right but the bull runs will have to stop eventually if we want to be considered a reliable currency to invest in because we want btc to stabilize otherwise companies will never want to accept it. Wikipedia is a good example because they accepted btc but when we entered a bear market they stopped accepting btc even though it does not cost them anything to stick a btc address on their donation page. I think their reasoning was because btc is not stable enough and was being made illegal in countries. We need btc to stabilize soon if we want more companies to accept it.

Synchronice

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Quote from: KingsDen on January 31, 2023, 04:00:34 AM

Bitcoin halving is characterised by price boom and this is a general believe of some bitcoiners and members of this forum.
My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?
This is because 2024 halving is the greatest available hype that can move the market. Besides that, I don't see any possible wave that can move Bitcoin to a new ATH. Unless US government will have to make BTC a legal tender.

If the new halving comes and goes without any kind of bull run, it either means that electricity prices are going down and USD is strengthening or bitcoin lost the dominance. Neither is going to happen, instead, electricity price will go up and USD may weaken, plus, cryptocurrencies are gaining priority in terms of trust over dollar among nations too.
So, logically, it should go up and there will be no panic. The growth rate won't be as high as before and I hope that won't really cause panic because it's already pretty damn huge and we can't expect 10 or 100 times more growth as we have seen before, this way the next halving will be different.

bmwister

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Quote from: KingsDen on January 31, 2023, 04:00:34 AM

Bitcoin halving is characterised by price boom and this is a general believe of some bitcoiners and members of this forum.
My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?
This is because 2024 halving is the greatest available hype that can move the market. Besides that, I don't see any possible wave that can move Bitcoin to a new ATH. Unless US government will have to make BTC a legal tender.

Over 90% of bitcoins have already been mined. But it is estimated that they will stop being mined in about 2140, because with each halving, their mining slows down.

The bitcoin price drops about a year after it peaks to about 17% of its peak value. But it never falls below the lowest point before the peak. For example, after the second halving, bitcoin's peak price was above $19,000. And when it fell, bitcoin was worth just over $3,000.

If the cycle of rise and fall of bitcoin price due to halving repeats, bitcoin will rise in price again in 2024. But that's hard to predict 100% of the time.

So, I don't think it's worth worrying about for now. For now we live, we mine, we buy BTC, and then we'll see.

arwin100

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Quote from: KingsDen on January 31, 2023, 04:00:34 AM

Bitcoin halving is characterised by price boom and this is a general believe of some bitcoiners and members of this forum.
My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?
This is because 2024 halving is the greatest available hype that can move the market. Besides that, I don't see any possible wave that can move Bitcoin to a new ATH. Unless US government will have to make BTC a legal tender.

Bitcoin halving from the past didn't get any decline and always it follows with a bull run so we can expect that this will also happen since many other people will think about it also. The beliefs of the people will converted to demand that's why we see the price keep pumping so don't expect anything bad about it since for sure we can see great price pumps when halving happens. Nobody want to left behind about it and some people are now accumulating and maybe this is the reason why the price is slowly pumping at the moment.

GideonGono

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Quote from: KingsDen on January 31, 2023, 04:00:34 AM

Bitcoin halving is characterised by price boom and this is a general believe of some bitcoiners and members of this forum.
My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?
This is because 2024 halving is the greatest available hype that can move the market. Besides that, I don't see any possible wave that can move Bitcoin to a new ATH. Unless US government will have to make BTC a legal tender.

Well if there wouldn't be a bull run on the next halving it could really create a FUD on the industry or community.
We got used to the cycle of Bitcoin and your fear might come true anytime, the cycle could break and make a new one.
I am sure that if that ever happens the price would crash down since many people would decide to quit or lay low for awhile.

John Abraham

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Quote from: Strongkored on February 01, 2023, 11:00:00 PM

Bitcoin bullrun after halving will always happen because whales and large institutions will take advantage during a bullrun that is why whales or large institutions who own Bitcoin will push the price to continue to rise until they feel enough to take profits.
And if the US is going to make Bitcoin as legal tender it will be used by speculators to push the price up but that doesn't mean it's the only way to get Bitcoin to reach ATH in the bullrun after the halving.

If that's the case, What major steps were taken in 2021 when we saw a big bull run and touch ATH?
Maybe Elon Musks' involvement in Bitcoin and El Salvador as well? I believe Covid 19 played a good role as well. People were in lockdown, and they were trying to find make easy money. A lot of newbies invested in Bitcoin to get some profit. Yeah? nah? Well. I am not a good speculator. That's just my assumption about the last bull run and ATH.

justdimin

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Quote from: KingsDen on January 31, 2023, 04:00:34 AM

Bitcoin halving is characterised by price boom and this is a general believe of some bitcoiners and members of this forum.
My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?
This is because 2024 halving is the greatest available hype that can move the market. Besides that, I don't see any possible wave that can move Bitcoin to a new ATH. Unless US government will have to make BTC a legal tender.

Miners will not lose interest because we would still be paying a good amount of money for it. If you think that miners are only mining because they like to get the rewards from bitcoin itself, you are very much wrong. They are mining for the fee already, that is why ETH got higher fee a year and a half ago, because they didn't want just the miners reward, they wanted higher fee to work, same goes for bitcoin.

It may look like they are not getting much individually from us right now, but collectively they are still getting a ton of returns. Plus, it is not going to be that hard to see most of them close shop, so the lesser amount of miners left will get bigger share.

xSkylarx

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That is really the point of view of the new holders right now because they think that in the past halving there are really new ATH which is why most of what I've known right now are starting to save money and buying Bitcoin. Though we should also understand the risk because the possibility of the price of the next halving would drop instead uptrend that is why we need to prepare also for this. Let's just see what will happen, i dont expect new ATH i do expect small bull runs or just green days unlike the previous year

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Quote from: Pesona1 on February 01, 2023, 09:36:31 PM

Quote from: uneng on February 01, 2023, 09:05:31 PM

A halving without effects would mean the demand for bitcoin is decreasing, while what we see in fact is exactly the opposite. Demand for bitcoin is constantly increasing on long term and so far there aren't any evidences which lead us to believe investors are losing interest for btc. Halving is already an historical event which always brought the same positive impacts to bitcoin market. In order to speculate the opposite I think we should have a past halving which didn't trigger a bull run next. All the chances are at bitcoin's favour in this case.

From the many experiences that have existed so far bitcoin has always experienced an increase in price even though it is not significant but still the halving day has had an effect on bitcoin, for the next halving day I think there will be an increase especially now that investors are starting to return to the market and this has been seen in the past few days an increase in bitcoin begins to occur besides that usually investor interest will start to grow before the halving occurs due to a decrease in supply or reduction and obviously this will trigger an increase in demand for bitcoin and will eventually trigger an increase in the price of bitcoin on the market.

And before the halving day, investors prepare to buy lots of bitcoins so that they can sell their bitcoins at the peak price when the halving day comes. It's possible that they've been doing this since the previous halving, so they already have a lot of bitcoin ready to sell at peak prices. And when the next halving comes, it's sure to trigger the price to skyrocket and that means they don't need to sell most of their bitcoins to make a huge profit. They only need to sell a fraction of their bitcoins to take their profits while preparing for the next downturn. So we don't have to worry about anything.

And if no bull run is forthcoming after the next halving, we should stick around while accumulating more bitcoins, as the price can fluctuate more frequently.

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Quote from: Strongkored on February 01, 2023, 11:00:00 PM

Bitcoin bullrun after halving will always happen because whales and large institutions will take advantage during a bullrun that is why whales or large institutions who own Bitcoin will push the price to continue to rise until they feel enough to take profits.

You've gone too far with "always". In 50 years' time too? It is normal that after the halvings the price will increase as long as the demand is maintained or increased. Theoretically, it could even be reduced a little and the price will continue to increase. But as has been mentioned, after each halving, volatility is most likely to be reduced and if in a few years we have a reduced volatility, it would not be impossible that after a halving we do not have a price increase.

For the nearer future, say the next 2 or 3 halvings, I am sure there will be bull runs.

Strongkored

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Bitcoin bullrun after halving will always happen because whales and large institutions will take advantage during a bullrun that is why whales or large institutions who own Bitcoin will push the price to continue to rise until they feel enough to take profits.
And if the US is going to make Bitcoin as legal tender it will be used by speculators to push the price up but that doesn't mean it's the only way to get Bitcoin to reach ATH in the bullrun after the halving.

AverageGlabella

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Quote from: Pesona1 on February 01, 2023, 09:36:31 PM

Quote from: uneng on February 01, 2023, 09:05:31 PM

A halving without effects would mean the demand for bitcoin is decreasing, while what we see in fact is exactly the opposite. Demand for bitcoin is constantly increasing on long term and so far there aren't any evidences which lead us to believe investors are losing interest for btc. Halving is already an historical event which always brought the same positive impacts to bitcoin market. In order to speculate the opposite I think we should have a past halving which didn't trigger a bull run next. All the chances are at bitcoin's favour in this case.

From the many experiences that have existed so far bitcoin has always experienced an increase in price even though it is not significant but still the halving day has had an effect on bitcoin, for the next halving day I think there will be an increase especially now that investors are starting to return to the market and this has been seen in the past few days an increase in bitcoin begins to occur besides that usually investor interest will start to grow before the halving occurs due to a decrease in supply or reduction and obviously this will trigger an increase in demand for bitcoin and will eventually trigger an increase in the price of bitcoin on the market.

The halving has always had a significant affect on btc what do you mean? Do not focus on the 'day' as you keep saying but look at how the market reacts after. It will go up that is the point of it the amount of btc being put into circulation is going to steadily decrease so it creates fomo and means that miners do not get paid as much for discovering blocks. The true effects of the halving probably will not be seen until at least 6 months after but you will see it in the next years. If you do not see the effects of it then I would be worried that satoshis vision was wrong but so far the halving has always had a positive effect.

Pesona1

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Quote from: uneng on February 01, 2023, 09:05:31 PM

A halving without effects would mean the demand for bitcoin is decreasing, while what we see in fact is exactly the opposite. Demand for bitcoin is constantly increasing on long term and so far there aren't any evidences which lead us to believe investors are losing interest for btc. Halving is already an historical event which always brought the same positive impacts to bitcoin market. In order to speculate the opposite I think we should have a past halving which didn't trigger a bull run next. All the chances are at bitcoin's favour in this case.

From the many experiences that have existed so far bitcoin has always experienced an increase in price even though it is not significant but still the halving day has had an effect on bitcoin, for the next halving day I think there will be an increase especially now that investors are starting to return to the market and this has been seen in the past few days an increase in bitcoin begins to occur besides that usually investor interest will start to grow before the halving occurs due to a decrease in supply or reduction and obviously this will trigger an increase in demand for bitcoin and will eventually trigger an increase in the price of bitcoin on the market.

AverageGlabella

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Quote from: franky1 on February 01, 2023, 09:26:20 PM

i never intend to sell anytime soon so i dont care about market ATH

i value my coins by looking at the periodic BOTTOMS which go up per cycle. meaning more value is protected over time. as thats roughly the underlying store of value (non zero bottom)

find the lowest low of a 2-4 year period and compare it to previous 2-4 year low
and that 'bottom', is always bull

(my actual math for "value" and judgement is a more refined number under the market using offmarket data but you can without math, observe a similar thinking by just chart plotting each cycles bottom on a chart)
dont get into the minutia of daily price whims if you are not interested in selling daily

Do you mind me asking if you have a value that you would sell at? or are you a btc maximalist? If you do not plan on selling why not? Why not sell and then buy back more if you think btc will go up in the long future? Timing it to buy a lot of btc in the bear markets and then selling after every halving for the next couple of them should see you with more btc then you would have if you bought it and just held onto it. I think there is little risk with this if you think btc will continue to rise in the future.

franky1

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i never intend to sell anytime soon so i dont care about market ATH

i value my coins by looking at the periodic BOTTOMS which go up per cycle. meaning more value is protected over time. as thats roughly the underlying store of value (non zero bottom)

find the lowest low of a 2-4 year period and compare it to previous 2-4 year low
and that 'bottom', is always bull

(my actual math for "value" and judgement is a more refined number under the market using offmarket data but you can without math, observe a similar thinking by just chart plotting each cycles bottom on a chart)
dont get into the minutia of daily price whims if you are not interested in selling daily

AverageGlabella

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Quote from: redsun114 on February 01, 2023, 02:52:04 PM

Even if there is no bull run, I think there will still be a noticeable increase that will happen because the properties of halving makes Bitcoin scarcer. Don't you worry as it won't cause a serious problem but just a little disappointment although that doesn't make the people quit on buying and hodling a Bitcoin.

What can truly cause a panic is when Bitcoin itself has experienced a major issue, a bug or something that it won't likely be fixed anymore but I think the possibility of that to happen is only slim since Bitcoin is over 13 years old already. IDK if what makes you think that 2024 is the greatest halving when there are more halvings to come after this. There is always another chance and even not in the halving day, bull run can still come.

I define a bull run as a sudden increase in price in a short time. A lack of a bull run could mean that btc is showing it is stabilizing and becoming less volatile which can help adoption which might increase the value of btc over a longer period but keep it there instead of the drops and increases we see. We do not want a bear market but bull runs can be damaging to adoption to.

uneng

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A halving without effects would mean the demand for bitcoin is decreasing, while what we see in fact is exactly the opposite. Demand for bitcoin is constantly increasing on long term and so far there aren't any evidences which lead us to believe investors are losing interest for btc. Halving is already an historical event which always brought the same positive impacts to bitcoin market. In order to speculate the opposite I think we should have a past halving which didn't trigger a bull run next. All the chances are at bitcoin's favour in this case.

Hispo

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I would not worry too much about it.
It is a matter of law, the law of supply and demand.

the demand right before the halving and after the halving will be practically the same, but the supply won't. In my eyes, an eventual increase of price it would be just matter of time.

Has anyone actually been able to defeat the such economics law to this day, by the way? I don't think so.

Bazzu

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In my opinion, there is no need to be afraid of bitcoin halving, because in my opinion, having a bitcoin halving will actually make bitcoin have a bright future, because of course in the world of bitcoin, there should have been difficult situations before a good moment occurred. but of course we won't know for the future we'll just see.

in my opinion, think positively about it.

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