My greatest fear about Bitcoin Halving. - page 5.

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Quote from: NeuroticFish on January 31, 2023, 03:10:07 AM

This being said, a bull run will still exist. The only question remaining is how big will that be.

This is correct, although all the previous bull runs, including the last "weak" one took us far above the fair value of bitcoin and far above the average mining cost.
For instance, when we went to 60k in 2021 the mining cost was below 20k and the fair price was somewhere around 30k, which is why the price stopped there after crashing from the ATH.
Let's assume that the fair price in 2024 keeps rising like it did in all the previous years and the mining cost goes up 2x. We'll have a fair value somewhere around 50k and the mining cost around 40. It doesn't mean bitcoin's price will go parabolic to 2x the fair value (100k) It can as well do 20% over the last ATH and it still technically will be a new ATH and a bull market.

People expect us to be between 100 and 200k by the end of 2024, but people also expected bitcoin to reach 100k in 2021 and then expected 10k last year, so whatever people expect has nothing to do with what really happens. I'd even say that expectations are very rarely met.

Kelvinid

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I still believe that the price of Bitcoin will again show an impressive pump after halving but not like before. Why? Because of the changing market behavior and also the investors, not I see that these people can hold longer and can wait for the peak price but have the feeling that they will sell their Bitcoin during its early pump.
Let us see what gonna happen 2 years from now, I'm also excited to witness again but yes, we're not going to expect it like the sentiment before - it is likely different this time.

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Quote from: KingsDen on January 31, 2023, 03:00:34 AM

Bitcoin halving is characterised by price boom and this is a general believe of some bitcoiners and members of this forum.
My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?
This is because 2024 halving is the greatest available hype that can move the market. Besides that, I don't see any possible wave that can move Bitcoin to a new ATH. Unless US government will have to make BTC a legal tender.

Fear not, Bitcoin cycle always ends with a bullrun. It may be double-top or premature top, a bit earlier or a tad later but it's going to happen. I'm not sure what kind of ATH you are expecting, but anything above $100k is ok with me (I guess for many peeps here). Yeah, $100k+ is not exactly x20 or x30 we got used to during the early cycles but it's way better than $16k! I'm an optimist, glass half full type of personality, so my guess is something between $200k and $450k. Btw what exactly you mean by "without any kind of bull run"? Does reaching the previous cycle's ATH count as "no bull run"? Cool

Mate2237

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Op bitcoin does not need USA to rise up. In 2021 which I have not involved in BTC but heard it from reading and told that BTC was $60 plus which was not involved USA or El Salvador. So BTC will still rise up even more than level but USA acceptance of BTC will be a plus to the crypto world.

If USA adopt BTC as a legal tender then BTC has gain ground in the 3rd quarter of the world adoption. USA will influence many countries to adopt bitcoin.

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Quote from: KingsDen on January 31, 2023, 03:00:34 AM

Bitcoin halving is characterised by price boom and this is a general believe of some bitcoiners and members of this forum.
My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?
This is because 2024 halving is the greatest available hype that can move the market. Besides that, I don't see any possible wave that can move Bitcoin to a new ATH. Unless US government will have to make BTC a legal tender.

Halving is a mechanism for lowering bitcoin inflation.

At the same time, each subsequent halving, in theory, should have less and less influence on the price dynamics of the first cryptocurrency. This is due to the fact that by now most of the coins have already been mined by miners.

At the same time, in my opinion, Satoshi Nakamoto was a big fan of the American writer Isaac Asimov (in particular, his science fiction novel Foundation (Academy)). One of the most striking episodes of this novel is the deviation of the development of Human history from the previously predicted trajectory of development, when the Founder made his fourth public prediction, but no longer related to reality.

Something similar could happen during the next halving in 2024. Everyone will be waiting for the new ATH bitcoin price to be reached, but this event will not happen.

Perhaps Satoshi Nakamoto foresaw that sooner or later this could happen and people will need to accept the fact that the price of Bitcoin cannot rise indefinitely.

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Quote from: KingsDen on January 31, 2023, 03:00:34 AM

Bitcoin halving is characterised by price boom and this is a general believe of some bitcoiners and members of this forum.
My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?
This is because 2024 halving is the greatest available hype that can move the market. Besides that, I don't see any possible wave that can move Bitcoin to a new ATH. Unless US government will have to make BTC a legal tender.

As time passes the bull runs are less intense than they were in the past but this was to be expected, as even if the halving takes place the reward to mine a block is getting smaller on each iteration.

However the demand for bitcoin keeps increasing and the amount of bitcoin yet to be mined gets lower as well, and if we add that a lot of the bitcoin ever mined is already on the hands of strong hands this leaves very little for those which are just thinking about getting some, and when the supply of something is limited and the demand high this can only mean one thing, higher prices.

Z-tight

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That shouldn't be ones greatest fear about BTC, i will be more worried about regulation in the industry than a price hike after the bull run, that is because i want BTC to continue being a currency people use for freedom from government oppression, but with so much talk of regulation, and with so many people using BTC through centralized exchanges, the government may soon shift their oppression fully to centralized exchanges and track people, seize their funds and control their BTC to an extent.

Don't be afraid of what will happen after the halving, i will continue holding and using BTC after the halving, but if there isn't a quick spike and it helps to remove some weak and impatient hands, then it is good for the BTC network.

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Quote from: KingsDen on January 31, 2023, 03:00:34 AM

Bitcoin halving is characterised by price boom and this is a general believe of some bitcoiners and members of this forum.
My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?
This is because 2024 halving is the greatest available hype that can move the market. Besides that, I don't see any possible wave that can move Bitcoin to a new ATH. Unless US government will have to make BTC a legal tender.

It's great to be visionary and think about the best and worst possible scenario along the way. However, halving is one of the process that is "defined" part of the bitcoin and its on going life cycle. You can not change it, you can not reverse it, it was programmed to sustain the bitcoin for decades to come in that way. It's simple, every time halving occurs, rewards are dropped and difficulty is risen which make the market short of sudden supply of bitcoin as compared to what we had before that cycle. Thus, it affects the pricing, there are more asker and than giver at all times in the market.

Now, coming to the 2024; the fear is not new. If above algorithm was well planned by Satoshi then it will work that way only because we have come so far and it's proven reality every 4 years.

Plus, it's bad idea to always connect the pricing and halving. One can expect to have nothing on one day but unlimited cashflow on the other day. Thats what makes the bitcoin special about it.

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Quote from: KingsDen on January 31, 2023, 03:00:34 AM

Bitcoin halving is characterised by price boom and this is a general believe of some bitcoiners and members of this forum.
My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?
This is because 2024 halving is the greatest available hype that can move the market. Besides that, I don't see any possible wave that can move Bitcoin to a new ATH. Unless US government will have to make BTC a legal tender.

Stay away from that negativity and look for the positive side, imagine having a limited supply with an increasing number of users, you might not see the effect right away but in the long run you'll see the real value of Bitcoin.

Halving is the biggest hype for Bitcoin aside from adoption, and I'm confident that we will go to bull trend this time because the cycle of bear market is soon to end, better to grab this opportunity now while you still can because Bitcoin will prove your negativity wrong.

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Quote from: KingsDen on January 31, 2023, 03:00:34 AM

Bitcoin halving is characterised by price boom and this is a general believe of some bitcoiners and members of this forum.
My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run?

One thing you need to understand about bitcoin entirely is the trust on the network, if you consider the previous events on halving that has taken place before now, you could discover the more reason there must be a bullrun, now talking about the halving in general, it is characterized by high volatility before, during and after the event, things are prone to change but bitcoin can never change to going down, there is high tendencies for bullrun during this period whereby we set a new record for ATH and so on, when it's comes to bitcoin i think there's no fear of missing out.

Quote from: KingsDen on January 31, 2023, 03:00:34 AM

Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?

No

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Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on January 31, 2023, 07:59:22 AM

Of course every next halving will have lesser impact on price. At least fundamentals are much lower.

This is true if the same amount of people are invested in btc but in the future halving we will probably have a bigger user base that is using bitcoin which means that there are more people to react. if the halving s create hype now then the next couple of halving could have more hype because there is more people reacting and more people investing. I do not think it is as easy as saying that each halving will have less impact then the last.

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Quote from: KingsDen on January 31, 2023, 03:00:34 AM

Bitcoin halving is characterised by price boom and this is a general believe of some bitcoiners and members of this forum.
My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?
This is because 2024 halving is the greatest available hype that can move the market. Besides that, I don't see any possible wave that can move Bitcoin to a new ATH. Unless US government will have to make BTC a legal tender.

Of course every next halving will have lesser impact on price. At least fundamentals of each consecutive halving are much lower.

1st halving reduced monetary inflation from 25% to 12%. Second halving reduced monetary inflation from 9% to 4,5%. Now we are getting closer and closer to the 4th halving that will reduce bitcoin monetary inflation from 1.5% to 0.7%. Both numbers are negligible compared to 8% official CPI in US, 10% in EU or 80% in countries like Turkey. Halvings fundamental impact on bitcoin price is getting lower and lower with every next halving in oppose to macro data, FED decisions, interest rates, recessions and of course ADOPTION.

So its exactly like DooMAD said. You are scared that dumb buyers will get disappointed. Thats your biggest fear? in worst case scenario they will dump cheap coins at the bottom for smart money because bitcoin is not all about pump and dump around halvings.

Quote from: DooMAD on January 31, 2023, 05:52:57 AM

The above post could just as easily be phrased: "What if the mindless hype isn't generating enough hype anymore?" and would convey much the same sentiment. I mean, come on, this is just silly.

AverageGlabella

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Don't forget reward from merge mining, assuming it's still a thing in next >100 years.

Maybe it is the term you are using but what is merge mining? I know that mining will continue because transaction fees will be the new incentive for miners but I think that depends on how much the transaction fees go up because of it because you see people comparing btc and usd fees already and start complaining that btc is more expensive. but I do not think I have heard about this merged mining.

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Quote from: DooMAD on January 31, 2023, 06:53:58 AM

Quote from: John Abraham on January 31, 2023, 06:19:24 AM

We know the Mining will be ended at some point. I know it's still a long way to go. But, What will happen to Bitcoin network security when miners get a few sats for a successive block and stop Mining?

Think your Chat GPT app is broken. That's not accurate. The reward subsidy will end at some point (after every single last one of us is dead, unless life-expectancy dramatically increases in the future). But mining will still continue, fuelled by transaction fees alone.

I think most new people think that btc mining will eventually just end and then btc ends or whatever they think. That is the problem with new members who do not do their research it is one of the most frequently asked questions about btc.

There probably will be less of a incentive to mine and transaction fees might go up because of that but that just makes it more accessible for people who do want to mine. Atm it is very competitive and requires a lot of money to get started.

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Quote from: John Abraham on January 31, 2023, 06:19:24 AM

We know the Mining will be ended at some point. I know it's still a long way to go. But, What will happen to Bitcoin network security when miners get a few sats for a successive block and stop Mining?

Think your Chat GPT app is broken. That's not accurate. The reward subsidy will end at some point (after every single last one of us is dead, unless life-expectancy dramatically increases in the future). But mining will still continue, fuelled by transaction fees alone.

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Quote from: NotATether on January 31, 2023, 06:43:12 AM

Through scarcity, hype is manufactured, as other people will realize that something that is becoming more and more scarce is about to become more expensive. Bitcoin kind of takes it to the extreme by (what feels like) taking away half of the supply overnight.

That is true if btc continues to perform well and is being used for something. atm people are not using their btc because they value it to much. atm that is working because btc has become more of a collectible or a store of value instead of a currency that it was originally created for. As long as that does not change I agree with you that the price should continue to increase and halving will continue to see hype around them because they are reducing the amount of btc that is being brought into circulation.

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Quote from: KingsDen on January 31, 2023, 03:00:34 AM

My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry?

Nah, the supply and demand dynamics resulting from miners having less money will trickle down to the rest of the industry slowly.

Through scarcity, hype is manufactured, as other people will realize that something that is becoming more and more scarce is about to become more expensive. Bitcoin kind of takes it to the extreme by (what feels like) taking away half of the supply overnight.

AverageGlabella

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You are worrying about something that has not happened and has not happened in history. Why do you think that we will not have a bull run? Why do you think people will panic? If the price steadily increases instead of going on a big bull run it is probably better for adoption and the stability of btc.

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Quote from: KingsDen on January 31, 2023, 03:00:34 AM

-snip- My greatest fear is; what if 2024 halving comes and go without any kind of bull run? Don't you think that there will be a serious problem and panic in the industry? -snip-

With the next halving still over a year away, I'm not too concerned about it just yet. But I do expect that we will see another bull run sometime after the halving. Definitely this time, anyway. But there could be some point where there will be no bull run after the halving, but I don't think that will be 2024 yet. Rather, I expect it much later and then the Bitcoin price will probably not fluctuate as much as it does now. So I don't expect any panic in the market and it will probably just be accepted. But that's just my personal assessment of it. Whether that will really happen remains to be seen. Wink

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Quote from: ABCbits on January 31, 2023, 05:06:55 AM

No. The only concern is half of miner permanently stop Mining which reduce difficulty/Bitcoin network security by half. Although looking at current mining condition, IMO half current hashrate is still more than enough to secure the Bitcoin network.

We know the Mining will be ended at some point. I know it's still a long way to go. But, What will happen to Bitcoin network security when miners get a few sats for a successive block and stop Mining? I know miners won't stop until it becomes extremely non-profitable. Some will even mine if costs and profitability are the same. But, That will reduce the hash rate. How much hash rate is enough hash rate to secure the network? I am just curious about it.

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