Topic: ★ NBA expert picks: New Season ★ - page 21. (Read 28772 times)

I will offer several subscriptions for my services starting December 1st.  

Please read everything carefully!

Here is what is offered in my subscription:

1) Daily picks of games with odds better than 1.6 (Hence, I will not be taking a huge favorite team at money line and get 1.005 odds or
something like that)  People who make a lot of those kinds of picks can be 20-2 and still negative in profit.  Thus, with me, you will be making solid profit with your wins.

2) Parlays!  Yes I will offer parlays and suggested wagers on parlays (in unit size).  From 3x all the way up to 1000x or more. 

3) Analysis and explanation: both pre game and post game.  I will be explaining why each of the lines and picks taken makes the most sense and is the most profitable, as well as a detailed analysis post game to explain whether the bet got lucky or unlucky, the cause of the game results, scores, player performances, etc

Cost of subscription service (in btc):

1 day: $3

3 days: $8

1 week: $12

Month long subscription: $30

Please private message me ahead of time the length of your subscription and the day you want to start.  I will reply with a bitcoin address for payment.  

I will be giving each individual subscription a different address so payments cannot be mixed up (people claiming payment of others as their own).

The information will then be delivered to you via private message on this forum at +/- 10m 6PM EST on weekdays.  Weekends may vary depending on when the first game is played, but will be at least one hour before start time.

Alternatively, you may give me an email address to receive the info.

If you have any questions, don't hesitate to ask.  I am at your service.

There might be a solution to this. I think op can offer a smaller amount of tips or pay as you go for the tips.

Today's picks:

Some tough lines today, almost tempted to take some huge favorites at ML (notice I almost never make picks getting worse than 1.7 odds, so not going to start now).  And I don't really like to wager the games directly after a league wide break such as Thanksgiving or All Star break.  The reason is because these type of breaks sort of break routine of teams/players.  Though it's not a major thing, it can disrupt previous patterns/momentums that lead up to the break.


Dallas Mavericks v Philadelphia 76ers under 205 1.882 (-113)

Charlotte Hornets v Atlanta Hawks Game: Atlanta Hawks -7 1.971 (-103)

Indiana Pacers v Cleveland Cavaliers Game: Indiana Pacers +9 1.952 (-105)

Really nice tips. The only thing you should also consider is the the amount to charge for it. Since I am new to sports betting, I feel unsafe to make big wagers. Do you plan on changing the price later? Or will it be the same always?

1) the odds were way too good.  If my memory serves me correctly, they were getting like 12 to 1 odds and 8 to 1 odds respectively.

2) With Cleveland v NY, it was the 1st game of the season.  NY morale was very high at that time; Melo was motivated, they had a new coach in Derek Fisher, but furthermore, they had a new President in Phil Jackson, who is highly respected.  Their line up was quite deep with 3 gunners (JR, Shumpert, Hardaway Jr), able point guards, a goto player in Melo, and inside prescence in Amari and especially Qincy Acy, which I think is a more valuable asset than Amari.

Cleveland on the other hand is a team that has YET to play a single regular season game together.  So to me the odds didn't matter.  Forget the names for that game, what I saw was bunch of good players in a pick up game (Cleveland) v a real team that has played together before (NY).

With Lakers v Houston, I don't think Dwight was in that game.  Lakers just won their first game of the season night before against Hawks, and started looking like a legit team that can put up a fight against good teams.  Nick Young was back and surprised me at how well he shot and some of the difficult jumpers he made (obviously that is his game, but to be making it right away after coming back from injury is a bit surprising.  Sure he practices it a lot, but in game is almost like night and day compared to practice).  So having a shooter come back is always a big asset.  Other than that, the line was way too sweet.  It was a trap.  The odds makers knew the previous game when Houston destroyed LA @ LA was fresh on the people's minds, and the fact that LAL has such a miserable record as well as how it was a B2B game.

But in today's athletics, B2B games don't hurt a team's performance all that much.  It's not like the 70s anymore.  Today we have private jets where players can lounge comfortably, MULTIPLE types of recovery chambers for instant recovery and blood flow, the best nutrition, etc.  These things can potentially help an athlete feel as fresh in B2B games as if they just rested for 3 days.

I followed your bet for New York beating Cleveland! How did you know   and Lakers v Houston?

It's okay dude.  You've gotta have emotional stability to make it in this game as well as bankroll management.  You were doing several parlays on your own before against my advice and that to me is a sign that you are trying to earn above the expected rate, which will only spell disaster.

I went 2-9 today in off broadcast bets for a loss of 6-7 units, my worse day of the season.  But I feel exactly the same as when I had gone 5-0, 4-1, 7-0, etc.  Because if you let it get to you, it will effect your future decisions, and that turns into a vicious cycle.

A lot of unexpected results today, a lot of variables.  Day after thanksgiving is usually a bit unpredictable.  Why NY showed up to play against Dallas, but not an undermanned and tumultuous OKC team with a rusty Russell Westbrook just coming back (that only hurts the team chemistry at 1st, which is usually what happens when starts come back the first several games).  But things smooth out in the long run.  Theres going to be times when coaches say in the locker room, "Ok today's game is a joke, we need to think about the coming road trip." And sit out a few of the key players.  Coach Poppovich is a prime example.  These kind of things are unpredictable and is the big time variance in this game.

Anyway, it is back to the drawing board for tomorrow's games.  Take care.

I book most of my unbroadcasted wagers on the following exchanges: Nitro, Betcoin, Cloudbet.  Have slips to prove it, but not going to dig all that up, obviously too time consuming.  

No I am not 'bigmoron' from Nitrogen Chat.  I do know who he is and seen him chat.  He isn't as 'moronic' as he says he is and the wild things he says in chat probably aren't true and is made to make him look like even more of a 'bigmoron' in an attempt to bolster his retard image to get people to bet with him in future wagers.

Same, i'll be even if the grizzlies win tho haha.

Where is this record of 74-51-5?

Aren't you bigmoron from nitrogen chat who was talking about going completely broke?

I got wrecked tonight WRECKED

thanks el.

@vani, I am still deciding what is a fair price and format so that everything would work out swiftly.  Stay tuned.

Today's picks (so far) for Friday 11/28 all odds according to NitrogenSports.eu (I urge this because Nitrogen allows you to select different spreads and lines, and some exchanges don't necessarily allow that)

Chicago Bulls v Boston Celtics under 204.5 1.952 (-105) Explanation: Celtics have been a high scoring team this year, with some gunners.  However Bulls defense is tough, especially after few days rest.  And
Thibodeau likes to keep a lid on the scoring, takes great timeouts to stop opponent momentum.

Chicago Bulls v Boston Celtics Game: Chicago Bulls -3 1.835 (-120)

Game starts in 15 min.  GL


Milwaukee Bucks v Detroit Pistons Game: Milwaukee Bucks +2.5 1.882 (-113)

Golden State Warriors v Charlotte Hornets Game: Golden State Warriors -8.5 1.897 (-111)

New Orleans Pelicans v Atlanta Hawks Game: New Orleans Pelicans +2 1.971 (-103)

New York Knicks v Oklahoma City Thunder Game: New York Knicks +7.5 2.080 (+108)


.1 unit on New York Knicks v Oklahoma City Thunder Game: New York Knicks ML4.051 (+305)

Any ideas how you will manage the subscriptions?

You going to send the picks by mail every day on the same time?
The costs per month?
First month promotions/free month if there is no profit?

Or do you still thinking about how to set this all up?

Looking forward to the next picks!

Congrats!
You are very able with your predictions.

CBS sportsline NBA "guru" sports writer Matt Moore is 221-202-8, ROFL.  After 7% vig (being generous) he is down 10.61 units so far.

Hence, do not follow any big website "expert" picks or subscriptions.  You will lose in the long run.  These sports writers and "statisticians" and polls cannot beat the odds in the long run.  They are missing something which is the intangibles.  Stats cannot calculate team motivation, chemistry, and morale.  Stats cannot factor in how certain styles of play vs other styles of play.  A understanding of team and individual basketball is the missing puzzle.  A understanding of psychology of pro players, coaches and organization is another missing puzzle in beating the odds in the long run.  It is very time consuming and takes a toll on the mind, but it is worth it.

As you can see, it is 4 am in the morning right now, and I've already started doing my research on tomorrow's games.  I've got film downloaded to see how certain players are playing.  I've got weather.com downloaded to see the weather of certain arenas.  Sudden cold weather or cold temperamant games usually have lower scoring games.  It is a small factor in why the west have perennially been higher scoring than the east.

but obviously a bigger factor is because coaches generally encourage a faster paced game of taking more risks on fastbreaks and allowing quicker 3 point shots.  3 point shooting has improved over the years since better shooting mechanics being taught, and the nba 3 being a bit closer than before.  However, NBA defense has also improved over the years, and players have become a lot more athletic and that has become a barrier to shooters since players can get to spots faster and contest shots better.  This has catered to quick guards.  Quick guards that are good shooters are always MAJOR assets to a team.  This is a guards league.  If you are an athletic guard that can shoot, you're going to find a nice roll in this league eventually.  The days of the "power in the paint" type players are over, because players are so much more athletic AND stronger nowadays and that makes up for size.  Even a player like Demarcus Cousins, who is todays power forward, is an valuable asset not neccessarily because of what he can do in the paint, but because he can shoot AND put the ball on the floor when it needs to be done.  Non skilled big men have no place in this league anymore.  

Month of November is free.  Subscription will start the month of December.  Doing research right now on Friday nights games, will be posting up until 1 hour before start of 1st game of the night.  All games will be according to NitrogenSports.eu odds which based on my research offer a lot of the best odds.

  

My record so far this year across all exchanges is 74-51-5 and up approximately 19 units in straight bets.  This is not including parlays.  Nov is experimental month and i picked as many games as possible.  

Record in posted bets 37-34 for plus 1 unit.  Have been very lazy about posting picks, sometimes not posting for several days.

Overall a very solid Nov so far considering beginning of the season.

As the season goes on, predictions will be easier as team chemistry, rotations, goals, morale, and tendencies become more clear.

December will be subscription, which will include PARLAYS as well!  Such as one's like these:



Hope you had a Happy Thanksgiving!  Will note that Big Baby Glen Davis and Demarcus Cousins probably won't play well the subsequent days after thanksgiving (weighed down by undigested turkey, potatoes, and stuffing) (j/k)

Had a nice parlay workin till the grizz game, ugh.. .5 point. Ya had some good picks today. lookin forward to more

Told u! not a good move..although they did put up a fight.(not so much against HOU)!! Refs r somehow always rough on Cousins.!!

Yea the Jazz got me in the parlay also 

refs butchered hou - sa game... virutally no calls in favor of demarcus... such a joke, can never factor in how bad refs do... game was down the the wire til 5 min

also noted that jazz organization is a joke, already tanking it this early in the season... there is no way on earth the jazz team should lose to okc.. doesnt matter if the game is being played on mars or if they just played a triple ot game 5 minutes earlier...

these 2 costed me dearly in parlays so far.