Topic: ★ NBA expert picks: New Season ★ - page 16. (Read 28754 times)

I see all these arguments void, specially because they are coming one day before the paid tips start.
If you guys had issues, then why not start the first day he started posting tips, it was clear he would charge after a month of free tips.
If you don't like the tips, and might lose with them, its simple, Just ignore them.

If there are issues or questions about anything, I would be willing to stand in as an escrow for membership fees between xiaoxiao and the customer.  If Xiaoxiao also would like, I can help track his bets for him on a google shared spreadsheet, please refer to Stayeduptolate's thread where I do this service for him to see a sample of what the spreadsheet would look like.  My payment would come in the form of free sports picks as long as they are put out.

Please let me know if your interested xiaoxiao.

Even tippsters can have a bad week. And no one is asking people following the tips to put in all the money. I usually, start by investing something like 0.005/unit on each tip..
This way, if the whole month has been bad, I simply don;t follow anymore.

In terms of getting shafted, that will not happen.  I'm not a scammer, lol.  In terms of winning or losing, I can't promise winning but I am fairly confident I will win.  A lot of paid services lose after the vig, and I'm probably going to be winning after the vig.  We'll see.  Stay tuned bud.

There have been several fiascos on this site with people paying for subscriptions - I've seen people lose a lot while being "promised" by the person making the picks they would be positive ev at the end of the week.  I've seen people just get shafted when they stop making picks too after they get a few subs or they start losing bets. 

In other words guys, if you paid this guy for picks, it's not going to end well...I promise.

I have read this thread from the start and maybe you are passionate, but you make the results a lot better, or less worse, than they really are. I have seen that behaviour a lot in this thread. Several times you showing positive results of bets you didn't place on the forum, or you telling afterwards that you forgot to place a pick that ended into a win.

Today you forgot to mention that the over bet on Golden state warriors was a lost.
Straight bets:
Cleveland Cavaliers -7  lost
Portland -8 lost
Golden state warriors o206.5 lost

0-3

The hedge bet. You changed your mind after reviewing some stats. I wonder why you didn’t reviewing the stats before you placed the original pick.
Cleveland Cavaliers over 197.5 hedged
Cleveland Cavaliers under 197.5 hedged

Result straight bets: Units lost 3 + the juice of the hedged bet.  

After a losing day you telling things like I was not at home, busy, on the phone, other handicappers lost too and so on, dozen of reasons. Your personal results you're telling looking good. I don’t say there aren't true, but it has nothing to do with the forum picks. The forum picks of November, which is the proof black in white, shows a pretty obvious -ev.

Normally someone starts to ask money after showing a profitable month, but that’s not what happening here. If this was my thread with my picks, I waited for the subs after showing one, two or even three months with decent results.

I have noticed in your message history that you asked for several loans, so there are a lot of times you are out of cash. Not only because you had not your password with you to access your bitcoins and need some bitcoin to make bets. I think the need for cash makes you decide to start the subscription so early and not after profitable ‘forum picks months’.

Maybe you overrate yourself or maybe you are new to betting and want to convince others that you're high experienced to collect subs. Maybe you are really as good as you say, but you need to prove it. No basketball pictures, personal results or screenshots of winning bets. Winning forum picks is what we like to see.

I understand that some people already subscribed and thus paid. In my opinion you subbed to soon to this picker. You need to wait for positive and long term proved results before putting your money into a picker. To those ask the money back before the subscription will start and decide at a later stage to subscribe or not. Tbh I'm afraid the money back will not happen. He lost his picks so is probably out of money.

The only thing you can do is to be very careful with the bets. He offered a 50% refund on losing months. Using high stakes with again a losing month, results in losing 50% of the subscription money plus the losing stakes. If the free picks ending today as planned keep us informed about the results you made with the given picks.

Guys, where should I place my bet if ever I want to play?

Not sure if they will come. I think he said that subscription begins on 5th, which is today.

waiting for your next pick

BTW- a lot of you guys have been asking me about parlays and how you think they might not be profitable.  I disagree.  They are CERTAINLY profitable in the long run if done right.  It takes a lot of thinking, stats, and process of elimination.  By that I mean, you must be able assess you confidence level for your straight picks properly and then make plus EV (expected value) parlays based on that.  Another key thing to parlays is you have to know how to hedge (insurance) your less confident straight picks.

New Orleans disappointed me today after I took them against your parlay pick , Had them on +9.5 and was pretty confident after the first few minutes/first quarter end, then they went to the drains. Should have followed your pick on GSW.

96-69-5 for about 25 units (i always post good odds and won some major ML's such as lakers v hou and ny v cleveland the 1st)  I've yet to take an odd lower than 1.6 this season.  I think it sugar coats one's record and not as profitable as finding gems that are good odds.

Took a beating this week, like many other statisticians handicappers and experts, but won a lot in personal parlays, which i didn't post.  Will be included in subscription though.   For example, today's game many "experts" and handicappers went 0-6... so very tough day and week for nba experts.

Anyway, researching tomorrows game right now.  Will be very busy tomorrow.  Regarding parlays, I am up about 40-50 units this year from combos/parlays... and record is probably 12-30... which is incredible for combo plays of avg odds of 9 to 1 or greater!

What is your current standing right now?

Ok got the unwarranted negative feedback removed.  Feel a lot better now.  Had a pretty rough week (the worst this season so far) in straight bets.  I think it is because there are a lot less gems as the odds makers start to figure out the teams.  I was killing it in the beginning of the season because I beat them to it.  In essence my scouting report was better then theirs.  However, I know I can still beat the lines, it's just that I need to pick less games, and perhaps do take some poorer odds such as a good team's money line vs a bad team.  But nevertheless I hate watering things down, if you will.  I don't like to boast a 30-10 record and be up only 1 unit.  That is pointless.  It's all about units.

Tonight I did VERY bad in straight bets.  I lost the 197.5 NY v CLE over and CLE -7 as well as the PORT -8.  However before the start of the NY v CLE game, I did post that I hedged the OVER.  I became a lot less confident in the OVER as I plugged a few more stats and researched a bit more of the intangibles.



In terms of combos and parlays, I did really well this last week.  As you can see I just won the posted parlay.  I actually parlayed that in order to hedge some of the straight bets i made tonight.  As it got closer and closer to game time, and I did a bit more research, I got less and less confident in my picks.

I probably should have done my resarch last night instead of 1 hour before game time.  But had to go to a training facility to run some games with some young guns as well as do some shooting and cutting drills.

BTW- here are some picks of my training facility.

I really like our gym: it is a bit small in terms of width but still standard high school court length.  It is hardcore; a lot of competitive games here, people hitting the floor, former and future NBA players, etc.  It is a blue collar gym but that's why people compete and improve so during clutch time, you're used to it.  so during away games at nicer facilities, it feels like a breeze.  And when teams come here to play such as summer league, pick ups or AAU, they get destroyed.



Here is a pic of me playing 1 on 1 full court against a buddy for $50.  He gave up already here.  But yeah, it takes a lot of hard work to be able to compete with top level players.



And here is a video of me training for explosiveness few years ago for college bball... yeah that's what it takes if you want to be elite.  unfortunately, i don't have the size or the frame to play any kind of serious bball, but i definitely have the explosiveness and speed.

Full squats of 280+ is definitely elite level for any type of athlete except olympic weightlifters.

BTW- that is not me screaming at the top of my lungs.  Somebody else in the background curling 30lb and screaming or something...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Xa25Jl99ls

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cwg2112ZOddYc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_5L421ZVrG4

Awesome Parlay m8..!! Great win.!

Haha.!! good luck with that one.!! the given odds r pretty sweet though.! makes it a bit tempting to bet on.!

made a fun prop bet as well:

Pending4 Dec 9:05pmBasketball - NBA Props ILaMarcus Aldridge To Score 28 Or More Points and the Portland Trail Blazers To Win (Indiana Pacers @ Portland Trail Blazers - He v David West To Score 16 Or More Points and the Indiana Pacers To Win (Indiana Pacers @ Portland Trail Blazers - Headline Offer)

Game: David West To Score 16 Or More Points and the Indiana Pacers To Win (Indiana Pacers @ Portland Trail Blazers - Headline Offer)11.000 (+1000) 0.010000 .10000

Just got home from training facility. Tomatocage will remove the untrust as soon as he gets home.  Hope that didn't worry some of you that rely on me for solid picks.  It was just mis communication between myself and marcotheminer.  I was away from home and didn't have access to my wallet and needed to make an extra bet on a lock so I quickly borrowed .1 from marcotheminer because i had BTC talk saved on my cellphone.  I had forgotten my long pw on my wallet in order to send funds to sports exchange.

Anyhow.  I have hedged my cleveland vs NY 197 over bet.  I don't believe it will go over after reviewing some stats and matchups between the 2.

Here is the hedge in a parlay:



Am pretty unsure now about the o/u for the CLE NY game.  Very tough call.  1st game was was low scoring, but it was early season gitters for CLE.  So not sure what the result will be this time.  At anyrate, i think it will go under if it is a close game, and it will go over if CLE blows up NY.

We'll see.

More analysis to come when i get home. At a bball facility right now training some talented players... And also schooling them...