Guys at the moment, looking at the AE, price of one NEM is 150 satoshis. When we start trading on exchanges, upon the launch, will we beat this price or the price will be lower?
I would like to hear opinions since I am thinking should I buy a NEMStake now, or wait the launch. Please keep in mind that there will be a lot of people who will dump their stakes upon the launch. If the price will be 150 satoshis, this will be an easy 1,5 BTC for them. This will surely drive the price down and let's face it, there are people like that, who are just looking for the easy money, moreover since they invested hardly nothing. There are many coins that were more expensive on IPO than after launch. Also I think that price drop is inevitable, BTSX dropped over 50% from the launch price before it started going up.
Another thing in mind is that there are 4B NEMs to 1B NXT. This would put a price of 1 NEM to the 600 satoshis launch price comparing to NXT, since there are 4 times more coins. Anybody remembers the price of 1 NXT when it hit the exchenges upon the launch? Is this 600 satoshis to much for NEM to beat?
Feature wise, looking at NXT at the moment there is just coin sending, better distribution and POA algorithm that is making forging fairer. All other feats are just promises.
I am not trying to spread FUD, just trying to think in advance, invest, and hear other peoples' opinions.
At every launch, consistent with both stocks and cryptos, price will drop and then take a hockey stick turnaround. This is considered a norm.
Nxt was launched at a price of 1.5 cts. before falling to a low of about 0.37 cts. Subsequently, over three weeks, it went to 7.2cts. Prices were pegged to BTC. In BTC terms, it was launched at about 0.000014 and dropped to a low of about 0.000004 BTC before rising to 0.000098 BTC.
Nxt started with something that is less of what NEM is starting at. At that time AE was also a promise. Hence on a level playing field, NEM is starting off with multisig, the first built in wallet for a crypto, PoI, the first most evenly distributed mining or harvesting. Hence NEM has two firsts.
For a price prediction go here:
https://forum.nemcoin.com/index.php?topic=2459.msg9488#msg9488This is matter of conjecture and is by no means what it will turn out to be. It may be better or it may be worse.
Thanks for the link, I read your numbers and with the all due respect, I think you are shooting way too high price wise. Price of 1800 satoshis at the launch with the supply of 8,888 B coins would put a market cap of close to $60 million. That is number 4 coin on coinmarketcap. And then a peak of 6000 satoshis would put it in a second place easily just behind the Bitcoin.
I think this is too high, especially since the crypto space got very saturated and we are in a very downward phase last 9 months. Look at the price of all the alts, they are going down as crazy. Also BTC is going down for 9 months almost. Don't forget that NXT got launched in a perfect time, when BTC was at the all time high at around a $1000 and new money was pouring in into cryptos.
Hence, sorry but your numbers are very too optimistic. I would be happy if NEM launches at 200 satoshis and then looses 50% of its value because of the dumps to 100 satoshis before it takes an upward again.
If it was last year, Pearson Correlation would have suggested $150million. The values are based on pegging to the BTC not on the fiat $. So, if BTC is $1000, then it would be $150m. If it is $400 then, it would be $60m. This is based on the graph and therefore highly academic but still the Pearson Correlation appears to be saying that based on today's prices not last year's. The prediction is based on all the real live numbers plugged in with NEM dotted in there. Unless NEM is very inferior to the rest, then this valuation may not happen. All things equal, the Pearson Correlation is suggesting a very high coefficient, meaning, the chances of it happening is 86.7%.
Two factors that may influence it not to happen as "planned" of course is that the NS have already been traded in the AE and it would have "stabilized" the value of the coin somewhat. This is a factor where none of the other coins had the same pre-listing path. The other thing is, like you said, saturation.
Having said that, stellar did a stellar performance.
Coinmarket cap is not reflecting all the coins of XRP and Stellar. If they do then Ripple would have been worth $0.5B. Go here:
http://bravenewcoin.com/price/price-index/ and look at the BNC 2.0 tab. Also you will note that Nxt was momentarily (i.e., at its peak) at about $86m in its initial days, which put them third or fourth in the list.
So, there is a high chance of NEM going to that because of its high number of coins. It may not hit $60m, and it may end up $40m. It may not hit a peak of $135m but could hit $100m. Anyway, it is not up to us to say it is impossible. We can only make conclusions based on actual events and mathematics. It is still very much a conjecture with a rational approach. That's all.
Edit: Pearson Correlation "shot" it high. Not me. I am merely using the formula to come to a conclusion.
