Hi all. How much do you think NEM will cost for the new year? Satoshi and cents?
I guess XEMUSD at the turn of the year will land in few cents area (3 to 6 cents),
XEMBTC - in area 500-1500sat (with Bitcoin price somwhere in range of 4000-6000$ after climbing to 7000-8000 and massive correction). I can be wrong if NEM Foundation has some good news behind the belt, but i dont think so. Deep correction after big gains in case of XEM is repeating pattern for his trading pairs. In other words, when Bitcoin is still in bull mode, XEMUSD produce sideways moves with tendency to little fading (around 20cents). But after the end of this wave in case of BTCUSD, there should be deeper correction, and slaughter on the alts, especially on those dont have good fundamental news. I remember about SegWit2x of course, that case can cause Bitcoin's problems to sustain his upward move (now this move is fueled mainly by speculators collecting BTC to get Bitcoin2x). After SegWit2x fork we can see deep volatility in BTCUSD, and wild volatility (with deep flash crashes in price) for example in XEMUSD and XEMBTC. So the price of few cents and 1000sat or lower can be of course reached in one massive, shortlived dump, after that return even to 10cents+ area and than could be fading to few cents. So keeping some Fiat (JPY) on ZAIF and pending orders (3-7JPY) could be very profitable i think.
In Spring/late Spring of 2018 however i see the price of XEM @new ATH (1$ or higher) and Bitcoin around 10000$ or higher. So in the nearest future (let's say December 2017 and January 2018) is good time to accumulate XEMs for good returns further in the next year. The cheaper, the better.
3-6 cents? I don't think so:
-Catapult release this year
-first time in a Korean exchange next month
-it seems like bitflyer will add NEM to their exchange
-COMSA will start directly with some ICO's
-Japan is the biggest crypto market and NEM is very popular in Japan
If the whole market will crash we might see 15-10 cents.
For 3-6 cents we must be in a bubble right now and I don't think that we have a bubble.
Okay i understand the arguments like this. But saying that in Cryptoworld some thing is impossible can lead to ... failure. I have chosen to be prepared for good scenario (so I hold significant part of my XEMs stack, of course partially sold in May/June), but have also some reserves (from taking profit in May/June) for tanking cheap XEMs from weak hands and unwise specultors (from those who likes buying expensive and dump with loss in panic). Panic moves are always possible (around Segwit2x drama, and after that drama) and awaited by me, but i will be not cry when XEM will skyrocket after some good infos, cause i'am prepared for that scenario too. But for now i have inevitable impression (not even from chart analysis but from my gut) that XEM must go to limbo, and after that limbo new Moontime is of course possible and expected.
I find always very funny and entertaining to see such kind of speculations.....
We can kind of predict that a cryptocurrency will do well, will rise according
to the development plans... but beeing able to attach a value is just fantasy
And actually that is the same to predict a full drop to limbo ;-)
Very friendly and with no offence from my side
, but did You noticed that my "predictions" dont even pretend to be a biblical or prophecies made by Nostradamus, they are better to describe as conditional scenarios. If market do one of those scenarios, i will take further steps accordingly to the situation. But i dont write that all this scenarios must happen. They only may happen, and i of course always allow possibility that i can be completly wrong (when we take into account that all this are mainly impressions from my guts, not only from technical and fundamental analysis), cause i am not almighty and omniscient.
This is example of conditional scenario in my writings:
" In other words, when Bitcoin is still in bull mode, XEMUSD produce sideways moves with tendency to little fading (around 20cents)" (by the way this happen now, XEMUSD is quoted now between 19-20cents, after BTCUSD try to retake 6000 after some dump activity in this pair).
And i even dont dare to predict in scenarios like this exact value, i'am not writing exactly 20cents, instead i use "around 20 cents". In describing scenario, when XEMUSD can go to limbo after BTCUSD flashcrash (one more time it's condition, not prediction, so better to write in case of BTCUSD flashcrash), i used 3-6 cents area or zone, but i could also use 0-15cents and that of course could be safer from my side. But i think when i create some scenario i have a right to be much more precise, atrough i know that prediction of exact value in exact time is very hard or almost impossible (i say almost, cause in my speculative live in Crypto i found it someway easier then in other markets, and not so impossible).
One last thing. I share these scenarios and my thougths here from good heart. One can take it into consideration, another can laugh or ignore. Cheers;)
edit//
Few words about guts feelings. I feel that BTCUSD prepare one last jump significantly above 6000 (let's say 6700-8400$ wide zone, however 6700 is minimum for me) before Segwit2x activation (or short time after this event). In that case XEMUSD can have volatile moves up and down, but for me closed daily bars are significant and those prices on close i think will stay in sideways/little fading move. So after Bitcoin's sucesful attack we can easily see XEMUSD pricing in range 16-20 cents. And as i wrote earlier, after Segwit2x the most probable (but not guaranteed) scenario is flashcrash @BTCUSD (as described in waves counting here:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/939kyuiy-Waves-counting-and-future-moves-anticipating/)
and unfolding slaughter @Alts/BTC and Alts/USD pairs. When i look into Weekly chart of BTCUSD and it's parabolic nature, that gives me more confidence, that every deeper pullback in case of BTCUSD is viewed by market as possible end of burst (last time it was that with pullback from 5000 to 3000, i was thinking even that it is end of Bitcoin's burst, but after that i had to change my view and previous waves counting - humanum errare est, insipientis in errore perseverare). And of course i can be in this view completely wrong:). Time and market behaviour will judge this.
I quote that just to remind.
Did You all believe still that XEM has chance to stay above 10-15cents area? I believe now that XEM will be dumped hard to few cents, after flashcrash on the whole cryptomarket, when BTC will finish his "window dressings" wave of fouls (so called 5th wave according to Elliot Waves Theory - dumb money sells off it's altcoins to get in the trend in BTCUSD - that's so pathetic:)).
And XEM has his own price formations, that looking for now very ugly.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XEMUSD/FQ0quudI-Situation-is-getting-ugly-here/I'am not a "prophet of doom" of course. But XEMs bubble had two significant ATHs and now deep correction after that is normal (in circumstances of cryptomarket). But even with this dump i dont sell all my XEMs (can only play smaller chunks to retake lower), because it's Ninja Style pumps are not fully predictable, so the best strategy here is HODL even if You have bought for 20cents+, or cut Your losses partially (50% of coins) to retake it significantly lower, that's only solution for people that invested here "in trend". Even if XEM will start unexpected pump they will stay with 50% of coins and will be winners in longterm perspective. I remember my own problems in 2016 after pump to around 1,5cent. It was painful (price retraced to 0.003$ so very significantly and deep). But i holded all my XEMs even without selling it to retake lower, because i had faith in this coin and whole NEM concept. Now is the same situation, but i have learned my lesson and now i'am less stressed as hodler than before.
But isn't XEM still above 15 cents? How sure you are that is going below it?
Though BTC climbs up, and XEMBTC is going down, then XEMUSD still remains in the same levels.
Uptrend in BTCUSD is clear. Downtrend in XEMBTC too. Did You saw how deep are losses of XEM to USD after making ATH in August? around 50% (on closed daily bars, when we use full bars it's even 60%). So downtrend in pair XEMUSD is also clear. I'am of course not 100% sure that XEM will go lower, but for me chances that this downtrend will be sustained are very high. When Bitcoin will end his bullrun (and i 'am in this case much more sure that his correction will be painful for all cryptos), and start his volatile downward, corrective moves, what do You think we will se in XEMUSD pair? For me answer is clear. Volatility and after that - dump with whole market. The only thing that can rescue quoting of XEM much higher than 10-15cents is publishing some good fundamental infos, or price manipulation by the whale/pumper&dumper. But we have lack of this info since May (by the way not fulfiled market expectations, cause Lon Wong said that Catapult will be released in Summer - now release is postponed), and whales/pumpers&dumper have plenty of other coins to make his play. And i always know that i can be wrong (that's the reason why i had not sold out all of my XEMs), cause only market as a whole have in the end decisive right, and i try to trade what i see not what i think - it's the hardest to turn off my own ego and in case of XEM even heart and own beliefs. Beside that i wish the NEM team the best and hope that market circumstances will have small impact in further development of this good project.
If someone want observe my trading moves, or even use it here is my portfoloio created to mirroring my longterm trades for XEM (this portfolio only consists my longterm entries and exits, not speculative intraday play). The last entry was around 10cents in July and cutted by 50% in August - exits can be observed in "sold" section.
https://www.cryptocompare.com/portfolio-public/?id=124504I'am also preparing to rebuy XEMs at levels around 8cents and 4cents, according to my longterm strategy, that i use for every coin i invest- if the market will be so kind to sell me so cheap.
4 and 8 cents are important levels of Fibbonacci retraces (88.2 and 76.4) from All Time High, measured on full bars and on closed bars. There is of course 61.8 Fibo around 13cents, but i have so huge (for me) position in XEM that i will not accumulate more on that level of retrace, and market symptoms shows me as i wrote earlier higher possibility of deeper retrace.
Picture below to illustrate my thoughts:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/J0Gc40UX/After seeing two peaks ("to higher & back without manipulation" or P&D), I have turned into similar rails as your thoughts are going.
Meaning that a quite a sum is lost if only holding. Ofc holding is safe. If the future is bright. And you have time to wait without an instant need of cash.
I can understand the possible "bear market" in XEMUSD with this "theoretical" explanation:
now it is shorters' markets, so let's assume that they want about 10% profit from each swing.
When they sell at 3000, they wait till -10% and then they buy back. => 2700
Bought at 2700 ... they wait till +10% and they sell. => 2970
So in that way also the XEMUSD is going down by little steps. "Theoretically"
But your opinion seems to be based on experience; you have seen some psychological reactions in the markets ("
how deep are losses of XEM to USD after making ATH").
What is causing that deep drop? They fear to lose the gained profit and they want to make it safe in some other currency (FIAT?) ?
Or you just do not care about the cause, you just measure the behaviour and try to forecast it ?
