New Diff thread Mar 22 to Apr. 5 not ready for prime time - page 11.

suchmoon

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https://bpip.org

Quote from: valkir on March 24, 2015, 08:32:01 AM

Wondering how bitcoin wisdom work. If you check next difficulty is -0.67% (24-03-2015 9:30) and on the google sheet it is +9.79%

Who is the better to guess??

Bitcoinwisdom includes the blocks from the previous cycle into their estimate, and they don't seem to be adjusting for the difficulty change (although I could be wrong about that). In general they are wrong most of the time until the last couple of days, but then again - all estimates are like that.

valkir

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Wondering how bitcoin wisdom work. If you check next difficulty is -0.67% (24-03-2015 9:30) and on the google sheet it is +9.79%

Who is the better to guess??

notlist3d

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Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

Quote from: adaseb on March 24, 2015, 07:41:26 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on March 24, 2015, 07:40:22 AM

Quote from: adaseb on March 24, 2015, 06:56:47 AM

Yikes! Both days are over +10% and BTC/USD is crashing.

Not looking good for us miners!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

It Is (+9.24%) and price is 258. Ugh

Are these the S5 Batch 5 miners being powered up? I didn't think they sold that many of them, only maybe 300 units or so.

If anything I think they should be powered down. People were getting shipping notices.

Yea if +10 that is a lot more then we wanted.

adaseb

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Quote from: philipma1957 on March 24, 2015, 07:40:22 AM

Quote from: adaseb on March 24, 2015, 06:56:47 AM

Yikes! Both days are over +10% and BTC/USD is crashing.

Not looking good for us miners!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

It Is (+9.24%) and price is 258. Ugh

Are these the S5 Batch 5 miners being powered up? I didn't think they sold that many of them, only maybe 300 units or so.

philipma1957

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Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: adaseb on March 24, 2015, 06:56:47 AM

Yikes! Both days are over +10% and BTC/USD is crashing.

Not looking good for us miners!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

It Is (+9.24%) and price is 258. Ugh

adaseb

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Activity: 3808

Merit: 1723

Yikes! Both days are over +10% and BTC/USD is crashing.

Not looking good for us miners!

philipma1957

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Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: philipma1957 on March 23, 2015, 08:02:05 PM

-5.01 to -5.25 Chris_Sabian

-4.01 to -4.25 Medow

5 or six spots

-2.51 to -2.75 tarmi--------------this was corrected from -2.51 to -2.76
-2.26 to -2.50 Roadstress-------- this was corrected from -2.25 to -2.49
-2.01 to -2.25 Mikestang--------- this was corrected from -2.00 to -2.25
-1.76 to -2.00 Quickseller
-1.51 to -1.75 edonkey
-1.26 to -1.50 valkir
-1.01 to -1.25 philipma1957
-0.76 to -1.00 notlist3d
-0.51 to -0.75 Jamphone
-0.26 to -0.50 coinits
-0.01 to -0.25 MegaFall

0.00 is open

+0.01 to +0.25 Amph
+0.26 to +0.50 davejh
+0.51 to +0.75 Kexkey
+0.76 to +1.00 ezeminer
+1.01 to +1.25 mavericklm
+1.26 to +1.50 SimplisticStu
+1.51 to +1.75 HerbPean
+1.76 to +2.00 jmumich
+2.01 to +2.25 SunnyIgor
+2.26 to +2.50 zebedee

+2.76 to +3.00 Korbman
+3.01 to +3.25 tertius993
+3.51 to +3.75 wpt1wpt1 ------------this was corrected from +3.51 to +3.76%
+3.76 to +4.00 tlhIlwI

Amph thanks for correction

Amph

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Quote from: suchmoon on March 23, 2015, 02:06:32 PM

Quote from: Amph on March 23, 2015, 11:53:05 AM

it will rise, but i want to stay neutral -0.5 +0.5

For reward purposes you might want to pick a 0.25% range that's not taken. I think +0.01 to +0.25 and -0.01 to -0.25 are available, so I would assume +0.01 to +0.25 since you mentioned "will rise". Let me know if you want a different one.

Quote from: Chris_Sabian on March 23, 2015, 01:59:35 PM

-5.05 to -5.30%

I'll adjust that to -5.01 to -5.25% to fit within the rules.

yeah i picked +0.01 + 0.25, i thought it was possible to have a range from - to +

jmumich

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Quote from: philipma1957 on March 23, 2015, 10:17:39 PM

A lot of people wondered why we got cold right at the end. maybe some one turned 10ph off the last day and put it back on today.

The difficulty drop itself could have been enough to cause some to turn back on.

In addition, I don't think a single 164 block day is any reason to think that a large amount of hashing power came on. We'll know more in a couple days. That's why the predictions that include data from the previous difficulty period are more accurate. I'm trying to work on one of those, but it's a bit tough estimating something that (1) has natural statistical variance, and (2) has actual and somewhat unpredictable growth (positive or negative).

jmumich

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Merit: 100

Quote from: notlist3d on March 23, 2015, 11:04:44 PM

I'm hoping 6 turns out to be high. But hard to tell this early. Once next gen chips come out I think we will skyrocket. So far everyone is very very quiet about their chips it seems.

And I could be out of it but I wonder if litecoin difficulty of "Mar 19 2015 34,843 -14.53% 997,667 MH/s" was anyone switching over to BTC from Scrypt gear.

It's real early - if today (3/24) is like 3/14 (129 blocks solved), we're right back to 0%. In another 48 hours or so we should have a good idea +/- 3% of where we'll be based on the way things have been going.

notlist3d

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I'm hoping 6 turns out to be high. But hard to tell this early. Once next gen chips come out I think we will skyrocket. So far everyone is very very quiet about their chips it seems.

And I could be out of it but I wonder if litecoin difficulty of "Mar 19 2015 34,843 -14.53% 997,667 MH/s" was anyone switching over to BTC from Scrypt gear.

philipma1957

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Activity: 4326

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'The right to privacy matters'

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (-1.67%) BTC/USD = 263.97

Bitcoin Difficulty:   46,717,549,645
Estimated Next Difficulty:   45,937,913,305 (-1.67%)
Adjust time:   After 1841 Blocks, About 12.7 days
Hashrate(?):   344,144,558 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.5 minutes
Updated:   23:15 (1.6 minutes ago)

1841 blocks to go.

jmumich 3rd crack at google sheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

very early but +6.34% with 175 made against 165 expected

A lot of people wondered why we got cold right at the end. maybe some one turned 10ph off the last day and put it back on today.

people keep an eye out on google sheets you have a while to pick the 29th. maybe this is a big bounce back jump.

philipma1957

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Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

-5.01 to -5.25 Chris_Sabian

-4.01 to -4.25 Medow

5 or six spots

-2.51 to -2.75 tarmi--------------this was corrected from -2.51 to -2.76
-2.26 to -2.50 Roadstress-------- this was corrected from -2.25 to -2.49
-2.01 to -2.25 Mikestang--------- this was corrected from -2.00 to -2.25
-1.76 to -2.00 Quickseller
-1.51 to -1.75 edonkey
-1.26 to -1.50 valkir
-1.01 to -1.25 philipma1957
-0.76 to -1.00 notlist3d
-0.51 to -0.75 Jamphone
-0.26 to -0.50 coinits

2 spots and 2x payoff 0

+0.26 to +0.50 davejh
+0.51 to +0.75 Kexkey
+0.76 to +1.00 ezeminer
+1.01 to +1.25 mavericklm
+1.26 to +1.50 SimplisticStu
+1.51 to +1.75 HerbPean
+1.76 to +2.00 jmumich
+2.01 to +2.25 SunnyIgor
+2.26 to +2.50 zebedee

+2.76 to +3.00 Korbman
+3.01 to +3.25 tertius993
+3.51 to +3.75 wpt1wpt1 ------------this was corrected from +3.51 to +3.76%
+3.76 to +4.00 tlhIlwI

Amph

it will rise, but i want to stay neutral -0.5 +0.5

you can take -0.25 to -0.01

you can take 0.00 hard to hit but you get .2 coins

you can take +0.01 to +0.25

but -0.5 to +0.5 is out side the rules

note I sent a pm asking for a correction from Amph

Korbman

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I'll take +2.76% to +3.00%

jmumich

full member

Activity: 209

Merit: 100

I'll take 1.76-2% if it is available.

Live tracker remains up. Hopefully some new data and analysis as well during this period. The data was a bit screwed up on the last day of the last difficulty period as I hadn't set things up to handle a negative difficulty adjustment properly. So I'm 0-2, first time I missed the daylight saving change, this time wasn't prepared for negative adjustment. Hopefully third time is a charm.

If there's anything you'd like to see let me know. I'm constantly tinkering with it and try to leave notes as to what I'm doing.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g

SimplisticStu

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Merit: 100

♥Bitcoin-Ethereum-Ripple♥

Quote from: HerbPean on March 23, 2015, 04:30:33 PM

Quote from: suchmoon on March 23, 2015, 03:41:30 PM

Quote from: HerbPean on March 23, 2015, 03:38:44 PM

+1.26-1.50
thanks

That's taken by SimplisticStu.

+1.51 to +1.75 perhaps?

Sold thanks

Sowwy

HerbPean

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Activity: 1638

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Quote from: suchmoon on March 23, 2015, 03:41:30 PM

Quote from: HerbPean on March 23, 2015, 03:38:44 PM

+1.26-1.50
thanks

That's taken by SimplisticStu.

+1.51 to +1.75 perhaps?

Sold thanks

suchmoon

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Activity: 3654

Merit: 8909

https://bpip.org

Quote from: HerbPean on March 23, 2015, 03:38:44 PM

+1.26-1.50
thanks

That's taken by SimplisticStu.

+1.51 to +1.75 perhaps?

HerbPean

legendary

Activity: 1638

Merit: 1005

+1.26-1.50
thanks

Chris_Sabian

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Merit: 1001

Quote from: suchmoon on March 23, 2015, 02:06:32 PM

Quote from: Amph on March 23, 2015, 11:53:05 AM

it will rise, but i want to stay neutral -0.5 +0.5

For reward purposes you might want to pick a 0.25% range that's not taken. I think +0.01 to +0.25 and -0.01 to -0.25 are available, so I would assume +0.01 to +0.25 since you mentioned "will rise". Let me know if you want a different one.

Quote from: Chris_Sabian on March 23, 2015, 01:59:35 PM

-5.05 to -5.30%

I'll adjust that to -5.01 to -5.25% to fit within the rules.

Typed that wrong. Good catch. Thanks. My new predication is:

-5.01 to -5.25%

Topic: New Diff thread Mar 22 to Apr. 5 not ready for prime time - page 11. (Read 10281 times)