Topic: New Diff thread Mar 22 to Apr. 5 not ready for prime time - page 6. (Read 10216 times)

Switch me to +10.01 - 10.25

Thanks you!

I hate this big jump 

I keep hoping the spreadsheet get' closer to bitwisdom's guess.  But it's looking like a 10 or higher most of this week.

Being over 250 is nice, if it could go up a little higher I would be more happy.

I think the list is up to date


-5.01 to -5.25 open ----------------- Chris_Sabian

-4.01 to -4.25 Medow

 5 or six spots


-2.51 to   -2.75  tarmi--------------this was  corrected from -2.51 to -2.76
-2.26 to   -2.50   open ---Roadstress-------- this was corrected from -2.25 to -2.49
-2.01 to   -2.25  Mikestang--------- this was corrected from -2.00 to -2.25
-1.76 to   -2.00-----open-------------- Quickseller
-1.51 to   -1.75 edonkey
-1.26 to   -1.50 valkir
-1.01  to  -1.25 philipma1957
-0.76  to  -1.00------open------------------- notlist3d
-0.51 to   -0.75  Jamphone
-0.26 to   -0.50 coinits

-0.01 to   -0.25  open------------------- MegaFall

0.00-------------- A4TECH
+0.01 to  +0.25 Amph
+0.26 to  +0.50 davejh
+0.51 to  +0.75 Kexkey
+0.76 to  +1.00 ezeminer
+1.01 to  +1.25 mavericklm
+1.26 to  +1.50  SimplisticStu
+1.51 to  +1.75  HerbPean

+1.76 to  +2.00 MegaFall-----------------A switch from (-0.01 to -0.25)
+2.01 to  +2.25 SunnyIgor

+2.26 to  +2.50 Open---------------- zebedee

+2.51 to  +2.75 Open---------------- alh
+2.76 to +3.00 Korbman
+3.01 to +3.25 tertius993
+3.26 to +3.50 jmumich------------------  A switch from +1.76 to +2.00
+3.51 to +3.75 wpt1wpt1 ------------this was corrected from +3.51 to +3.76%
+3.76 to +4.00 tlhIlwI
+4.01 to +4.25 Open------------------------ buyandhold

+5.01 to +5.25 Chris_Sabian ------------A switch from -5.01 to -5.25
+5.26 to +5.50 RealMalatesta
+5.76 to +6.00 alh  ----------------------A switch from +2.51 to +2.75
+6.01 to +6.25 freedomno1


+7.76 to +8.00 armedmilitia
+8.51 to +8.75 zebedee--------------------A switch from +2.26 to +2.50
+8.76 to +9.00 Last of the V8s
+9.51 to + 9.76 eretron
+9.76 to +10.00 buyandhold------------A switch from +4.01 to +4.25

+11.01 to +11.25 EMIF
+11.51 to +11.75 notlist3d--------- switched from - 0.76 to - 1.00
+12.26 to +12.50 adaseb------------corrected from 12.50  ----

+13.01 to +13.25 RoadStress---------Switched from -2.26 to -2.50---- and corrected to a .25 range

+14.76 to +15.00 lovenlifelarge ---corrected from +15.00

+ 15.01 to 15.25  Quickerseller----- Switched from -1.76 to -2.00
+18.51  to 18.75   shapeshift




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+7.65%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

(+10.56%)   still a nasty number


we have less then 1 day for the picks.
We all the changes I may have fucked up one or two of these.  Please check them today.  Good luck to us all with this jump we are going to need it.

coin price is 253 at coinbase.


https://www.coinbase.com/buys

Hello,

may I enter the game

My guess:

+ 9.51%

Thanks

I would like to drop my +2.51% slot and take the +5.76% slot instead. This going to be way worse than I thought. Not just "variance" this time.... 

yeah 10% jumps with coins at this price ugh.

better gear at cheaper prices served to lower btc price a lot.   I think   

also new gear with big power drops.

300 watt gpu's gave .6 gh
10   watt asics  gave 1 gh     a 50 to 1 improvement
2     watt  asics  gave 1 gh    a 5 to 1 improvement
1      watt asics gave  1 gh    a 2 to  1 improvement
.8     watt  asics gave  1gh     a 1,25 to 1 ratio--------------- btc price drop
.5     watt  asics  gave 1gh     a  1.6 to 1 improvement -----  btc price drop

Next 

The time when there was a blinky like heaven from all the usb sticks.... and smell of 1000 dollar bitcoin.   Ahhh the good old times .

I would agree we have been a little spoiled on difficulty, but price sure has not helped jumps.

We're all horribly spoiled 

Double-digit increases were the norm not too long ago. Although BTC at $600+ helped of course.

Nasty is definitely a good word for it.  Even with negative the difficulty before this one will hurt.

I think the list is up to date


-5.01 to -5.25 open ----------------- Chris_Sabian

-4.01 to -4.25 Medow

 5 or six spots


-2.51 to   -2.75  tarmi--------------this was  corrected from -2.51 to -2.76
-2.26 to   -2.50   open ---Roadstress-------- this was corrected from -2.25 to -2.49
-2.01 to   -2.25  Mikestang--------- this was corrected from -2.00 to -2.25
-1.76 to   -2.00-----open-------------- Quickseller
-1.51 to   -1.75 edonkey
-1.26 to   -1.50 valkir
-1.01  to  -1.25 philipma1957
-0.76  to  -1.00------open------------------- notlist3d
-0.51 to   -0.75  Jamphone
-0.26 to   -0.50 coinits

-0.01 to   -0.25  open------------------- MegaFall

0.00-------------- A4TECH
+0.01 to  +0.25 Amph
+0.26 to  +0.50 davejh
+0.51 to  +0.75 Kexkey
+0.76 to  +1.00 ezeminer
+1.01 to  +1.25 mavericklm
+1.26 to  +1.50  SimplisticStu
+1.51 to  +1.75  HerbPean

+1.76 to  +2.00 MegaFall-----------------A switch from (-0.01 to -0.25)
+2.01 to  +2.25 SunnyIgor

+2.26 to  +2.50 Open---------------- zebedee

+2.51 to  +2.75 alh
+2.76 to +3.00 Korbman
+3.01 to +3.25 tertius993
+3.26 to +3.50 jmumich------------------  A switch from +1.76 to +2.00
+3.51 to +3.75 wpt1wpt1 ------------this was corrected from +3.51 to +3.76%
+3.76 to +4.00 tlhIlwI
+4.01 to +4.25 Open------------------------ buyandhold

+5.01 to +5.25 Chris_Sabian ------------A switch from -5.01 to -5.25
+5.26 to +5.50 RealMalatesta

+6.01 to +6.25 freedomno1


+7.76 to +8.00 armedmilitia
+8.51 to +8.75 zebedee--------------------A switch from +2.26 to +2.50
+8.76 to +9.00 Last of the V8s

+9.76 to +10.00 buyandhold------------A switch from +4.01 to +4.25

+11.01 to +11.25 EMIF
+11.51 to +11.75 notlist3d--------- switched from - 0.76 to - 1.00
+12.26 to +12.50 adaseb------------corrected from 12.50  ----

+13.01 to +13.25 RoadStress---------Switched from -2.26 to -2.50---- and corrected to a .25 range

+14.76 to +15.00 lovenlifelarge ---corrected from +15.00

+ 15.01 to 15.25  Quickerseller----- Switched from -1.76 to -2.00
+18.51  to 18.75   shapeshift
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+5.93%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

(+11.07%)   still a nasty number

no worries

Thank you Phil for doing so much about difficulty game.

If you would change my guess to +11.51 to +11.75

Sadly my first day guess of negative was off.

or the rush to put in a super farm  filled with 10th 3000 watt gear as fast as possible crashes prices down to 150 or less.

I can see some like bitfury swapping out the old gear and not increasing power use.  But  their hash rate doubles since their new gear uses half the power.

This means only building miners no farm build or psus are needed since they have it with the old gear.

Cuts the build cost a lot.  and in my example above a 50k a day profit would be 145k a day for at least 1 diff jump.

the old gear they had was 6th maybe 3000 of them  so now  3000 new pieces.  just slide the old pcb boards out and slide the new ones in. reuse the heatsink the farm the cooling the psu.  only thing to waste is the old pcb boards.

and maybe they can just solder the new chip in place of the old.

pretty cheap upgrade from 20ph to  30ph.  the second part of the upgrade costs a bit more since they only had 3000 old machine to convert the rest would need all the parts.

  I am actually hoping this is what happened to make the  increase

The way things are going, if they keep going, soon we will only have the ASIC manufacturers mining ... noone else.

The reason I could see a company putting in more then normal is being first to next gen.  If company is a month or even two ahead of others it would go a long ways on their ROI.

Currently we don't know how far along companies are on next gen so it's hard to tell a lot.

Yeah but it is moron to exceed by a lot. By that I mean a one time jump like I describe below for bitfury would be smart for them to do.

The math shows time and time again.  replace your shit gear with better gear and grow somewhat.

So the big bitfury gear was about 6th at 4000 watts.

If they drop in a  10th at 3000 watts.

   on 1 to 1 basis  their 20 MW farm was doing 30ph

so it now does  65ph

they may have powered off a lot   last jump and powered on 50ph. this jump.

look at bottom line  they were spending .67 watts a gh  now they spend .3 watts a gh  the market takes a big 10-15% hit lik it did last fall and it then goes flat for 5 months or so.


At 30ph using 20 MW with 6 cent power a farm makes 50800 a day.

at 65ph using 20 MW with 6 cent power a farm makes 143,688 a day.

So the economic sense of bitfury shutting off the remaining shit they were mining getting that nice little  1.50% drop last time.  

Then being perfectly setup to turn on a ton of gear for an entire 13 days making 90k a day in extra money for 13 days = 1 million plus in 2 weeks  not forgetting the other 50 k so 1.7 million in 12-14 days.

If all of the above is true. diff will go flat.  and bitfury will sell a lot of coins fast.. I am holding money to buy when we drop under 200 a coin.

Yeah, at this point its not just variance, its been a solid past week or so of this insane hashrate increase.

I bet it hits somewhere near 25% =P

Well I think for this next change we can dispense with "It's just variance". The last few could clearly fit there, but the upcoming change is due to an actual increase it total hashrate. We may well look back at the first Quarter of 2015 as "The good times" for the year (I hope not).

If part of this is a turnover of Bitfury gear, what happens to the displaced gear?