New Diff thread Mar 22 to Apr. 5 not ready for prime time - page 4.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: geforcelover on March 31, 2015, 01:23:53 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on March 31, 2015, 08:44:35 AM

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+5.83%) 691 blocks to go

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211 (7.28%)

https://www.coinbase.com/charts price = 245 usd for a btc

7 people seem to have a shot and 9 open slots in the same area so we may have a carry over.

+5.01 to +5.25 Chris_Sabian
+5.26 to +5.50 RealMalatesta

-----1 Open Slot ---------

I,d like to select between this @philip

Sorry the last time to pick was the 29th of March.

Next contest/promo will start on the next diff. say april 5th or 4th.

you will have about 4 days to pick say april 9th. Feel free to read and follow this one. Then make a free pick for the next one.

geforcelover

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Quote from: philipma1957 on March 31, 2015, 08:44:35 AM

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+5.83%) 691 blocks to go

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211 (7.28%)

https://www.coinbase.com/charts price = 245 usd for a btc

7 people seem to have a shot and 9 open slots in the same area so we may have a carry over.

+5.01 to +5.25 Chris_Sabian
+5.26 to +5.50 RealMalatesta

-----1 Open Slot ---------

I,d like to select between this @philip

philipma1957

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Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: notlist3d on March 25, 2015, 10:48:24 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on March 25, 2015, 09:26:28 PM

Quote from: notlist3d on March 25, 2015, 07:38:28 PM

Bitwisdom and spreadsheet seem to be apart pretty far. Which one is more accurate long term like now?

in this case I would blend the 2 and get an average. Then lean on the high side of the average.

So

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty --------------------------------------------------------------------->>>>>>>>>>>>(+2.00%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211 -->(+10.40%)

is a 6.20% for an average.

Lean high 6.66 to 7.77 If I was really trying to pick today. I would look in between those numbers.

If I was really trying to win the contest instead of always picking -1.11%

I would grab a 7.01 to 7.25 I watch a lot the next 2 days and adjust on the 28th.

I like your number of 6 I hope it comes closer to it. That with a negative last time, would not be to bad.

Now if we could only get BTC price up some.

Anyone that followed this post is very close right now>

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+5.97%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

(+7.92%)

notlist3d

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Quote from: suchmoon on March 31, 2015, 09:38:51 AM

Quote from: mavericklm on March 31, 2015, 09:35:54 AM

wasn't the deadline on 29?

looks to be around 5 to 6%, purrrrrrrfect!

The deadline for reward entries, yes. Doesn't mean we can't speculate

We can speculate

Spreadsheet right now shows around 7.7 percent

Bitwisdom shows:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    46,717,549,645
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,488,903,824 (+5.93%)
Adjust time:    After 676 Blocks, About 4.4 days

Slowly they are reaching each other. It seems like it will be mid 6 to low 7 i would guess.

suchmoon

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https://bpip.org

Quote from: mavericklm on March 31, 2015, 09:35:54 AM

wasn't the deadline on 29?

looks to be around 5 to 6%, purrrrrrrfect!

The deadline for reward entries, yes. Doesn't mean we can't speculate

mavericklm

hero member

Activity: 742

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wasn't the deadline on 29?

looks to be around 5 to 6%, purrrrrrrfect!

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+5.83%) 691 blocks to go

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211 (7.28%)

https://www.coinbase.com/charts price = 245 usd for a btc

7 people seem to have a shot and 9 open slots in the same area so we may have a carry over.

+5.01 to +5.25 Chris_Sabian
+5.26 to +5.50 RealMalatesta

-----1 Open Slot ---------

+5.76 to +6.00 alh
+6.01 to +6.25 freedomno1

----- 6 Open Slots -------

+7.76 to +8.00 armedmilitia

--- 2 open slots---------

+8.51 to +8.75 zebedee--------------------A switch from (+2.26 to +2.50)
+8.76 to +9.00 Last of the V8s

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: Mikestang on March 30, 2015, 01:50:46 PM

Quote from: TheAnalogKid on March 30, 2015, 01:24:01 PM

Now, that being said, if this speculation is true, how will that affect us in the near term? Obviously if they're shipping out another 30PH or so worth of gear we'll see upwards of a 10% diff adjustment going when it's powered on, if it's meant to be new equipment. If a good portion of it is to be able to replace and retire older, more inefficient hardware, then the diff adjustment would be a little less and even out to probably 4-7% given a 30-50% replacement rate.

I have a feeling it's mostly the latter, replacing old gear. I think you might be onto something about that initial spike in relation to the S5 batch, that would explain it. With summer in the north coming up hopefully difficulty will slow down a bit.

It is most likely upgrading gear. Many of us keep the power footprint the same to cut cost of the upgrade.

For an example:

3x s-3's = 1200 watts and 1.5 th on 1 evga 1300 g2

2x s-5's = 1200 watts and 2.3th on 1 evga 1300 g2

I think a lot of the above has happened. but that is not enough for this spike.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KNC or Bitfury did an upgrade of gear. Or one of the new players fired up a farm.

I track sales for bitmaintech via known bitmaintech btc address's they sold under 3000 s-5's since they opened sales back up.

This is just the btc sales so 2x that and 5500 s-5's is the max they sold. that is 6ph or 6.6ph the jump is 25-30ph if 0 luck helped.

Say 20ph with some luck. So 20ph- 7 ph = 13ph maybe 20ph in big farm upgrades or startups.

notlist3d

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Quote from: Mikestang on March 30, 2015, 01:50:46 PM

Quote from: TheAnalogKid on March 30, 2015, 01:24:01 PM

Now, that being said, if this speculation is true, how will that affect us in the near term? Obviously if they're shipping out another 30PH or so worth of gear we'll see upwards of a 10% diff adjustment going when it's powered on, if it's meant to be new equipment. If a good portion of it is to be able to replace and retire older, more inefficient hardware, then the diff adjustment would be a little less and even out to probably 4-7% given a 30-50% replacement rate.

I have a feeling it's mostly the latter, replacing old gear. I think you might be onto something about that initial spike in relation to the S5 batch, that would explain it. With summer in the north coming up hopefully difficulty will slow down a bit.

What I wish we knew was who it is. Companies are quiet so we really nave no idea where the gear is popping up at.

If it is someone replacing with gear we don't know chips they were using. Would be nice to know if they are new gen or not.

Mikestang

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Quote from: TheAnalogKid on March 30, 2015, 01:24:01 PM

Now, that being said, if this speculation is true, how will that affect us in the near term? Obviously if they're shipping out another 30PH or so worth of gear we'll see upwards of a 10% diff adjustment going when it's powered on, if it's meant to be new equipment. If a good portion of it is to be able to replace and retire older, more inefficient hardware, then the diff adjustment would be a little less and even out to probably 4-7% given a 30-50% replacement rate.

I have a feeling it's mostly the latter, replacing old gear. I think you might be onto something about that initial spike in relation to the S5 batch, that would explain it. With summer in the north coming up hopefully difficulty will slow down a bit.

TheAnalogKid

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My opinion is variance coupled with Bitmain.

BMT is supposed to start shipping B5 S5's today, right? It's coincidence that a week before they ship we see a pretty good spike in hashrate, which was relatively short lived. Also a coincidence that Antpool did really well for a few days, good luck run. I'm not a huge believer in coincidences.

Could be they were testing the units preparing to ship them, as well as trying to gain a few extra BTC by running the units for a day or two before sending them out the door.

Would only take about 25,000 units to pop up the rate by an extra 30PH, which I would assume is within the realm of possibility.

Now, that being said, if this speculation is true, how will that affect us in the near term? Obviously if they're shipping out another 30PH or so worth of gear we'll see upwards of a 10% diff adjustment going when it's powered on, if it's meant to be new equipment. If a good portion of it is to be able to replace and retire older, more inefficient hardware, then the diff adjustment would be a little less and even out to probably 4-7% given a 30-50% replacement rate.

ezeminer

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Lie down. Have a cookie

Quote from: notlist3d on March 30, 2015, 12:21:07 PM

Interesting that bitwisdom did go down:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    46,717,549,645
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,767,555,969 (+6.53%)
Adjust time:    After 815 Blocks, About 5.2 days

I would love for it to be in the 6's at this point. The day before some pools did have some insane luck. Antpool did amazing.

Even the solo ckpool got two blocks in the last couple days, which is wild.

Hopefully we see the difficulty stay down. We jumped from like 380PH to 335PH in the last couple of days as well.

notlist3d

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Interesting that bitwisdom did go down:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    46,717,549,645
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,767,555,969 (+6.53%)
Adjust time:    After 815 Blocks, About 5.2 days

I would love for it to be in the 6's at this point. The day before some pools did have some insane luck. Antpool did amazing.

suchmoon

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https://bpip.org

Quote from: adaseb on March 30, 2015, 11:30:17 AM

Thats a nice chart, where did you get it from?

It's from Hashnest, I have a few GH/s there. Hashnest miners are all pointed at Antpool, so their charts reflect Antpool earnings. You need an account though to see it.

https://www.hashnest.com/hash_currencies/23/income

adaseb

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Quote from: suchmoon on March 30, 2015, 10:06:49 AM

Quote from: adaseb on March 30, 2015, 02:27:01 AM

Finally some "bad" luck with some pools. Yesterday was flat. And today is -15%

Antpool still seems to be doing better than its supposed to (green line is the "supposed to").

So I'm gonna say - variance

. Bitcoinwisdom charts are diving down. The spike was tall and wide so it's definitely going have an impact on this cycle's difficulty, but I don't think it will be anywhere near 10%.

Thats a nice chart, where did you get it from?

GenTarkin

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Quote from: suchmoon on March 30, 2015, 10:46:34 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on March 30, 2015, 10:30:30 AM

I believe it was an upgrade of a farm and some good luck stacked in on that.

I think upgrades and new installations are happening, just perhaps not 25 PH/s at a time. Difficulty has gone up 20-30% in the last ~6 months, when it used to jump that much in a single cycle in early 2014. So I think we're in a more of a steady growth period if BTC price stays where it is.

Yeah, diff has simply slowed down a lot due to the price being so low, if btc was still $1300 ... diff would most likely be a couple hundred billion by now. IIRC when btc price was its highest AM had announced projections of bringing 2EHASH of hardware online within a year. Which, thankfully never happened. Falling prices curbed them real fast!
Like I always say, mining follows price. So far thats proven nothing but true. Its already happened w/ LTC.

suchmoon

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https://bpip.org

Quote from: philipma1957 on March 30, 2015, 10:30:30 AM

I believe it was an upgrade of a farm and some good luck stacked in on that.

I think upgrades and new installations are happening, just perhaps not 25 PH/s at a time. Difficulty has gone up 20-30% in the last ~6 months, when it used to jump that much in a single cycle in early 2014. So I think we're in a more of a steady growth period if BTC price stays where it is.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: suchmoon on March 30, 2015, 10:06:49 AM

Quote from: adaseb on March 30, 2015, 02:27:01 AM

Finally some "bad" luck with some pools. Yesterday was flat. And today is -15%

Antpool still seems to be doing better than its supposed to (green line is the "supposed to").

So I'm gonna say - variance

. Bitcoinwisdom charts are diving down. The spike was tall and wide so it's definitely going have an impact on this cycle's difficulty, but I don't think it will be anywhere near 10%.

Well hot streaks can happen. When I used to play the ponies
I picked 4 horses in 4 consecutive races
everyone paid 22 to 28 bucks for a 2 buck bet.

Picking 4 winning 10 to 1 shots at a race track is not the same as your example above , but I am sure it is difficult to do.

I believe it was an upgrade of a farm and some good luck stacked in on that.

suchmoon

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https://bpip.org

Quote from: adaseb on March 30, 2015, 02:27:01 AM

Finally some "bad" luck with some pools. Yesterday was flat. And today is -15%

Antpool still seems to be doing better than its supposed to (green line is the "supposed to").

So I'm gonna say - variance

. Bitcoinwisdom charts are diving down. The spike was tall and wide so it's definitely going have an impact on this cycle's difficulty, but I don't think it will be anywhere near 10%.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: Amph on March 30, 2015, 01:55:23 AM

so it rised so much at the end 9%+?

can we do another prediction until april 5 right?

I will do a new thread for the next diff. I also believe Suchmoon will fund the promo at least 3 more times.

Current numbers

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

(+7.96%)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(+6.69%)

https://www.coinbase.com/charts

245 USD a btc

@notlist3d

I am certain a farm was put online or upgraded. The network is so big now that sales can't drive diff up that easy.

340ph to 365ph is around 7.35%

340ph to 370ph is about 8.88% so a 25 to 30 ph jump is in the works.

No way that many s-5's were sold and delivered
Or avalon 4.1's either.

So knc and bitfury have both been talking better chips for months. I have to think one of them turned off old gear last jump and upgraded their farm this jump.

Topic: New Diff thread Mar 22 to Apr. 5 not ready for prime time - page 4. (Read 10281 times)