Next difficulty ~4,000,000,000? Tracking difficulty since 145,000,000. - page 2.

samsonn25

hero member

Activity: 882

Merit: 1003

Quote from: smoothie on February 16, 2014, 10:02:23 PM

So in 5 months...

3,000,000,000 / 145,000,000 = 20.68965 <---- rough calc.

Difficulty went up more than 20 times.

Shocked

Doing a simple calculation for 70% increase monthly, by Jan 2015 will be 746,000,000,000 a 240x increase from 3.1B now in 10 months.

A 3TH KNC Neptune (thats not even out yet) will lose $10 a day by then. @3000watts .16kwh cents electrity

baritus

legendary

Activity: 966

Merit: 1052

3.75B next?

navigator

sr. member

Activity: 362

Merit: 250

Price won't follow because btc mining is currently too profitable. Mining profitability always trends towards barely profitable. Right now an antminer cost me .65 cents/day in electric and makes a lil over $20/day. Even after I expect ROI, it will still probably make ~$10/day and cost the same.

Most likely we will eventually reach a point that is similar to the profitability that gpu rigs were getting right before asic's arrived. I've noticed a low term trend of everyone expecting a ROI on whatever hardware within 3-6 months. If it falls below 1 month to ROI, you see everyone flourish to buy hardware, over 5 months or so and people stop buying.

And who is to say you should make money btc mining anyway? Satoshi never said he created bitcoin so home users can get rich mining. Why do so many users expect profit? They talk as if bitcoin owes them, when it's them that owes bitcoin.

I actually look forward to the day when the home user no longer makes money mining bitcoin because that's not why it was made.

AndrewGucci

newbie

Activity: 56

Merit: 0

I wonder when the price will follow ? And what is the role of mtgox "problems" in that ?

skuser

sr. member

Activity: 291

Merit: 250

Nice. I expect next difficulty to cross 4B

Chemistry1988

legendary

Activity: 1120

Merit: 1000

It turns out to be 3,129,573,175 (19.39% increase)

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1473

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

So in 5 months...

3,000,000,000 / 145,000,000 = 20.68965 <---- rough calc.

Difficulty went up more than 20 times.

Shocked

af_newbie

legendary

Activity: 2702

Merit: 1468

Quote from: baritus on September 19, 2013, 11:51:09 AM

How accurate would you say that is?

Past predictions:
Guess Actual
145M - 148M
170M - 189M
215M - 267.7M
390M - 390.9M
510M - 510.9M
670M - 609.4M
720M - 707.4M
799M - 902.3M
1.1B - 1.18B
1.38B - 1.41B
1.65B - 1.789B
2B - 2.19B
2.6B - 2.61B
3B - N/A

Not bad. It will probably be +520M (20%) to 780M (30%) so 3.2B to 3.4B.

It is amazing nevertheless. Soon all home heating will be done with bitcoin mining rigs :-)

Trongersoll

hero member

Activity: 490

Merit: 501

Quote from: Sonny on February 10, 2014, 03:28:41 AM

I am just sad to see there are always newbies buying overpriced hardware with no idea they can never get their investment back...not enough close....

Funny, ever since I started buying mining hardware in May, I have seen people make this statement. And yet, I've made US$5000 over my US$15,000 investment. I'm glad that people are saddened that people buy hardware, otherwise there would be that many more people pushing the difficulty up.

Sonny

hero member

Activity: 868

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Zangy on February 06, 2014, 03:06:01 AM

Quote from: frank754 on February 05, 2014, 08:31:11 PM

3,191,424,356 (+21.74%)
Adjust time: After 1906 Blocks, About 12.3 days

This is what bitcoinwisdom is saying right now... no more ROI on many of the miners out there except the biggest.

Time to sell all the mining hardware to the ignorant many (like me) for vastly over priced £££ on ebay.

I am just sad to see there are always newbies buying overpriced hardware with no idea they can never get their investment back...not enough close....

Its About Sharing

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1000

Antifragile

Quote from: Zangy on February 06, 2014, 03:06:01 AM

Quote from: frank754 on February 05, 2014, 08:31:11 PM

3,191,424,356 (+21.74%)
Adjust time: After 1906 Blocks, About 12.3 days

This is what bitcoinwisdom is saying right now... no more ROI on many of the miners out there except the biggest.

Time to sell all the mining hardware to the ignorant many (like me) for vastly over priced £££ on ebay. Shame, the human race is self destructive in its greed

Not sure this is greed. If one can make more by merely buying btc's than how can you call someone taking a huge chance on a miner Greedy? If anything it is a huge gamble but rather appears to be both a hobby and reinvestment, not to mention a way to get btc's in some tough countries.

Zangy

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

Quote from: frank754 on February 05, 2014, 08:31:11 PM

3,191,424,356 (+21.74%)
Adjust time: After 1906 Blocks, About 12.3 days

This is what bitcoinwisdom is saying right now... no more ROI on many of the miners out there except the biggest.

Time to sell all the mining hardware to the ignorant many (like me) for vastly over priced £££ on ebay. Shame, the human race is self destructive in its greed

frank754

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

3,191,424,356 (+21.74%)
Adjust time: After 1906 Blocks, About 12.3 days

This is what bitcoinwisdom is saying right now... no more ROI on many of the miners out there except the biggest.

baritus

legendary

Activity: 966

Merit: 1052

I'm guessing 3B diff for next.

Trongersoll

hero member

Activity: 490

Merit: 501

Just a reminder, all the sites that estimate the next difficulty are really inaccurate for days after a difficulty increase. about 4 days (or less) before the next increase they are pretty good.

BuildTheFuture

full member

Activity: 195

Merit: 100

Shhhh, quiet, you're going to jinx it. Wink

Yuki1988

hero member

Activity: 614

Merit: 500

Bitcoin Difficulty: 2,193,847,870
Estimated Next Difficulty: 2,597,587,410 (+18.40%)
Adjust time: After 1364 Blocks, About 8.6 days

The estimated next difficulity is becoming lower and lower. Cheesy

Shogen

legendary

Activity: 966

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Sonny on January 27, 2014, 09:26:44 AM

Bitcoin Difficulty: 2,193,847,870
Estimated Next Difficulty: 2,609,566,119 (+18.95%)
Adjust time: After 1535 Blocks, About 9.8 days

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Let's see how accurate this estimation will be. Grin

Keep growing exponetially Cheesy

Sonny

hero member

Activity: 868

Merit: 1000

Bitcoin Difficulty: 2,193,847,870
Estimated Next Difficulty: 2,609,566,119 (+18.95%)
Adjust time: After 1535 Blocks, About 9.8 days

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Let's see how accurate this estimation will be. Grin

palawan

sr. member

Activity: 386

Merit: 250

Bitmaintech (Antminer hardware/manufacturer) has a post that got me thinking (dangerous). It broke down the risk/reward of btc mining from the "big" miners' point of view. R&D, labor hours, hardware investments, power costs, infrastructure costs, and after all of that, what's left? Bitmaintech estimates percentages in the teens. At what risk? If btc price goes down, no profits, but losses.

I know everyone says don't buy any miner now as it will never make the return on investment, but the big players are also in the same predicament as the hobby miners. Sure, the manufacturers are going to keep producing faster and faster miners, but the jig is up. Hardware vendors now have to deliver or no one's buying their BS anymore. Lower prices for better hardware same thing that happened with PC's/laptops. And how many new miners will be coming in when they are intimidated by the message "the difficulty is so high" and diminishing returns...

So maybe the difficulty will stop shooting up... Unless, of course, the btc price shoots up again.

I'm mining as a hobby. Learning to tinker with specialized hardware and software. It's a lot of fun for a tech-nerd like me. Maybe I get my roi, also.

Topic: Next difficulty ~4,000,000,000? Tracking difficulty since 145,000,000. - page 2. (Read 32501 times)