plenty of diff reducing blocks for the first couple days. rising since then to +33%. about 7 or 8 days to go. So, the subconcious says .......
21% rise next diff, resulting in 618,224,682
Except just now when I checked the present diff for the math, it was showing 11+ minute blocks, so I'm changing the next difficulty to .....
597,490,873
Two guesses for the price of one.
EDIT: Got fooled by a page cache. I"m disavowing my second guess.
Topic: Next difficulty ~4,000,000,000? Tracking difficulty since 145,000,000. - page 7. (Read 32501 times)
November 11, 2013, 10:04:39 PM
November 11, 2013, 09:52:36 PM
800 mil i am expecting
i am expecting right around this number too.
it is getting very, very difficult for newcomers of bitcoin to get into the mining action.
i think mining is where you learn the majority of what you need tdo know about btc and if people aren't offered this... i worry about the future of btc.
November 09, 2013, 01:59:37 PM
800 mil i am expecting
November 09, 2013, 11:55:12 AM
I use the calculator to tell me what I can mine currently and makeup my own predictions past that. There are too many variables to take in that those difficulty calculators don't. They don't come to the forums to see who's getting new miners next week, the gaps in delivery of miners, or using the pics thread to gauge other average miner's operations and how they increase over time. From experience, the next cycle and probably the one after will be a rather small increase. I usually make a mental best and worst case prediction about what will happen over the next 1-3 months. It's hard to predict further than that because you don't know what will and can happen.
November 09, 2013, 11:33:43 AM
The only accurate calculators are the ones that tell you how much you will mine at current difficulty.
They are accurate for about 5-6 days on average. If your investment horizon is that short, by all means use them.
After those 6 days, they are far more inaccurate than all the ones that predict eternal exponential growth.
November 09, 2013, 11:28:00 AM
At current prices of close to $400, my BFL single is profitable up until 24 billion difficulty, and we're only up to 510 million. Can someone wake me when we reach 24 billion?
My guess on next difficulty is between 560-610m. I prefer the allchains.info method of calculation. It is based on how fast and how much we have completed of the next 2016 blocks since last cycle. Currently at ~30% measured we are at a 2% increase. This will gradually increase next week if more miners are turned on, probably end up at 10-15%, could be lower though. As we approach 75% or more completion it becomes clear what the next difficulty will be.
You guys haven't been using those silly mining and difficulty calculators have you? The only accurate calculators are the ones that tell you how much you will mine at current difficulty.
If people are turning off miners, I would be glad to turn it back on for them. WTB another miner.
My guess on next difficulty is between 560-610m. I prefer the allchains.info method of calculation. It is based on how fast and how much we have completed of the next 2016 blocks since last cycle. Currently at ~30% measured we are at a 2% increase. This will gradually increase next week if more miners are turned on, probably end up at 10-15%, could be lower though. As we approach 75% or more completion it becomes clear what the next difficulty will be.
You guys haven't been using those silly mining and difficulty calculators have you? The only accurate calculators are the ones that tell you how much you will mine at current difficulty.
If people are turning off miners, I would be glad to turn it back on for them. WTB another miner.
November 06, 2013, 11:37:32 PM
http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty: 510,929,738
Estimated Next Difficulty: 652,003,109 (+27.61%)
I am guessing about 50% increase in difficulty cause hashfast is getting ready to ship their ASIC.....
Bitcoin Difficulty: 510,929,738
Estimated Next Difficulty: 652,003,109 (+27.61%)
I am guessing about 50% increase in difficulty cause hashfast is getting ready to ship their ASIC.....
Hashfast isn't getting ready for anything at this moment!
November 06, 2013, 10:22:22 PM
http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty: 510,929,738
Estimated Next Difficulty: 652,003,109 (+27.61%)
I am guessing about 50% increase in difficulty cause hashfast is getting ready to ship their ASIC.....
Bitcoin Difficulty: 510,929,738
Estimated Next Difficulty: 652,003,109 (+27.61%)
I am guessing about 50% increase in difficulty cause hashfast is getting ready to ship their ASIC.....
November 06, 2013, 09:35:38 PM
I'm pulling for 615m ~20% increase and should be around there for the next few increases until 1b, then maybe slow to 10-15% growth imo.
November 06, 2013, 02:20:50 PM
Will we hit a difficulty of 1 billion before December 1st?
Definitively if 30%+ increases 3 times. Could be done if preorders keep delivering
But I guess Dec 14 is safe bet for 1 billion difficulty
November 06, 2013, 07:57:17 AM
next estimate: 6 % up.
we are slowing down.
we are slowing down.
November 05, 2013, 06:59:48 PM
We haven't seen anything yet.
I think the next difficulty jump will be small compared to the one after that when Knc starts shipping November orders...
Will we hit a difficulty of 1 billion before December 1st?
I think the next difficulty jump will be small compared to the one after that when Knc starts shipping November orders...
Will we hit a difficulty of 1 billion before December 1st?
November 05, 2013, 06:51:47 PM
755,745,693
9.81 days left until 47.92% growth)
9.81 days left until 47.92% growth)
November 05, 2013, 06:11:57 PM
Seems like HashFast is nowhere near delivery (and are not even communicating), shile KnC finished their first batch and sill sait out a couple of weeks before sending out the next one.
This round may be quiet, so let's say an optimistic 590M.
To low, my guess 645M. This round may be quiet, so let's say an optimistic 590M.
November 05, 2013, 06:01:50 PM
Seems like HashFast is nowhere near delivery (and are not even communicating), shile KnC finished their first batch and sill sait out a couple of weeks before sending out the next one.
This round may be quiet, so let's say an optimistic 590M.
This round may be quiet, so let's say an optimistic 590M.
November 05, 2013, 04:42:16 PM
612M!!!
Dammm!
Bob Marley say: No women no cry...
Miners say: No mining no Cry!!
November 05, 2013, 04:37:10 PM
612M!!!
November 05, 2013, 04:12:54 PM
621 867 645
November 05, 2013, 04:04:06 PM
Next guess: 670m
My guess: Too early to say. In 1000 blocks, lets take guesses
I always guess as soon as it changes, otherwise it's no fun.
November 05, 2013, 04:02:36 PM
Next guess: 670m
My guess: Too early to say. In 1000 blocks, lets take guesses
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