Cool !
I was a little surprised by the new difficulty too. I thought it would be higher.
Topic: Next difficulty ~4,000,000,000? Tracking difficulty since 145,000,000. - page 3. (Read 32518 times)
January 26, 2014, 05:17:28 PM
January 18, 2014, 05:31:45 AM
Now bitcoinwisdom is saying it's only going up by about 29.6% in 7 days, that's about 2% less than was estimated yesterday, maybe a lot of smaller miners will start to pull the plug and head towards other altcoins.
I think some asic company could have pulled the plug on their miners and started shipping to customers.
January 17, 2014, 04:04:17 PM
Now bitcoinwisdom is saying it's only going up by about 29.6% in 7 days, that's about 2% less than was estimated yesterday, maybe a lot of smaller miners will start to pull the plug and head towards other altcoins.
January 16, 2014, 04:13:22 PM
Next difficulty 2,356,198,387 (+31.66%)
the increase is insane for the past few weeks.
the increase is insane for the past few weeks.
January 16, 2014, 03:33:58 PM
i say 1.70 
January 15, 2014, 08:32:58 PM
And what about inflation of electricity price? You think it will be still $0.15/kWH?
Clearly if electricity demand for bitcoin mining would rival 100% of all available electricity production, prices wont stay flat. But seriously, you couldnt possibly defend bitcoins energy consumption on the basis that it would consume so unbelievably much, that prices will skyrocket?
Quote
Also, banking sector is now using millions of human workforce, that doesn't count as energy? Every employee needs to heat his/her water, home, cook his/her meal...
Right, so if bitcoin replaced fiat, we could... kill those people?
January 09, 2014, 07:13:10 PM
Guestimate..So what should be the first +1TH miners shipped, and when? Cointerra, HashFast, Bitmine, Black Arrow 
Hashfast?
Probably in 2114.
Haha, yeah I probably wont see my batch 1 Neptune till Obama is out of office..
January 08, 2014, 02:16:03 AM
Guestimate..So what should be the first +1TH miners shipped, and when? Cointerra, HashFast, Bitmine, Black Arrow
Hashfast?
Probably in 2114.
January 06, 2014, 11:08:28 PM
Guestimate..So what should be the first +1TH miners shipped, and when? Cointerra, HashFast, Bitmine, Black Arrow
January 06, 2014, 10:29:07 PM
I heard as a buyer from some big miners that soon there will be a lot more power added to the
network, feb-march . we are talking about 500-1000 Th each .
Went to their house and saw it with my own eyes .
Btw,we are in asia .
omehenk
network, feb-march . we are talking about 500-1000 Th each .
Went to their house and saw it with my own eyes .
Btw,we are in asia .
omehenk
January 06, 2014, 06:34:45 PM
1.65B seems about right.
I don't foresee any 30% increments in the next few months, but a steady climb for the next half year. Then I think we see everything settle down as BTC climbs back into profitability for miners.
I don't foresee any 30% increments in the next few months, but a steady climb for the next half year. Then I think we see everything settle down as BTC climbs back into profitability for miners.
January 06, 2014, 06:19:31 PM
Have to correct myself on that.
That's Ciara assembly , and it hasn't worked a minute for HF. =))))
That's Ciara assembly , and it hasn't worked a minute for HF. =))))
You hit the spot
Fake is fake. They took the money and ran.
January 06, 2014, 04:38:32 PM
Is my math right? I am not accepting the difficulty growth rate of 30% steps.
Difficulty doesn't grow like bacteria, right? I don't think Moore's law is useful for the next 3 months.
Genesis block says Jan difficulty will go from from 1.5b to 3b (default values). Understandable. But does Feb go from 3b to 6b? And March from 6b to 12b?
I know there's a lot of hash hitting the market Q1(maybe?), my question is, reversing the logic and if the math stays consistent, is a rise of difficulty from 1.5b to 12b in 3 months realistic? That's the rough equivalent of ending march with a network hash rate 10x faster than our current rate(10Ph/s to almost 100Ph/s). Is it technologically possible to have the network hashrate increase by 8 Petahash every 11 days for the next 3 months? Without considering under-discussed factors like equipment breakage/obsolescence, vaporware, elec$ and btc$, and even if all equip shipped Jan 1, that's the equivalent of over 2500 KNC Neptunes every 2 weeks. Using round figures, that's almost 70,000 1Th/s miners shipped in 3 months (almost 800 a day!). I don't see that happening. KNC only made 1200 first round neptunes ( i know they are 3+Th/s), but I doubt the rest of the asic market is making up the additional hash, so doesn't the difficulty curve has to taper? Or is my logic flawed?
Difficulty doesn't grow like bacteria, right? I don't think Moore's law is useful for the next 3 months.
Genesis block says Jan difficulty will go from from 1.5b to 3b (default values). Understandable. But does Feb go from 3b to 6b? And March from 6b to 12b?
I know there's a lot of hash hitting the market Q1(maybe?), my question is, reversing the logic and if the math stays consistent, is a rise of difficulty from 1.5b to 12b in 3 months realistic? That's the rough equivalent of ending march with a network hash rate 10x faster than our current rate(10Ph/s to almost 100Ph/s). Is it technologically possible to have the network hashrate increase by 8 Petahash every 11 days for the next 3 months? Without considering under-discussed factors like equipment breakage/obsolescence, vaporware, elec$ and btc$, and even if all equip shipped Jan 1, that's the equivalent of over 2500 KNC Neptunes every 2 weeks. Using round figures, that's almost 70,000 1Th/s miners shipped in 3 months (almost 800 a day!). I don't see that happening. KNC only made 1200 first round neptunes ( i know they are 3+Th/s), but I doubt the rest of the asic market is making up the additional hash, so doesn't the difficulty curve has to taper? Or is my logic flawed?
You are right its not like bacteria and it wont continue doubling forever. But do consider this; during the previous difficulty interval, over 3PH was added in 10 days, during a time "no one" was shipping or deploying high performance miners. Well, clearly, someone must have, but it wasnt KnC, nor HF, CT, Bitmine, AM, BA or BFL. Unless it was some dark horse in this race, that was the result of smaller vendors like Bitmain or some bitfury resellers. If they can deliver 300TH per day, just how much do you think all the companies i just mentioned combined can ship/deploy once they are going in full production ?
FWIW, Josh from BFL is on record saying his company will easily be able to assemble and ship over 1000 Monarchs per day. Thats over 10PH per month. And thats only a single company. Next year we will have over 10 companies shipping latest generation miners. At least one of which is using a seriously large factory to assemble their units:
https://hashfast.com/pictures-of-the-ciara-assembly-floor/
576500 Square feet. Makes BFL look like a garage shop really.
That's Ciara assembly , and it won't be working 24/7 for hashfast.
Actually , they will assemble their products in less than 24h on one line.
But at one point , you can't get more double the Hashpower each month.
It's pretty easy right now , ship 3000 Neptunes or equivalent , next month add 6000 , but in 12 month we will have to add 6 millions of those to keep up.
Have to correct myself on that.
That's Ciara assembly , and it hasn't worked a minute for HF. =))))
January 06, 2014, 05:04:05 AM
Well 4 PH added suddenly and more to come who knows maybe higher? I think I can by happy that I can roi with 800 ghz in march but who knows maybe I can get a few more bitcoins.
I say 1.85B.
Unless it counts the avg then its diffrent.
I say 1.85B.
Unless it counts the avg then its diffrent.
January 03, 2014, 08:02:18 AM
1.65B Next Guess.
January 01, 2014, 01:36:05 PM
Certain ASIC maker, with flying insect name, mines for a year before shipping out the miners to rightful owners. Allegedly.
January 01, 2014, 09:22:11 AM
Looks like it'll be close to 1.38
December 28, 2013, 09:36:58 AM
Could the manufactures be putting their own new product online before selling to the public. Miners are the most profitable when they are first put online from my understanding. Why wouldn't the manufactures put the first few hundred online themselves before selling them to get the max ROE. You would call it testing and it would let you test and also grab the max profit by getting the big gh advantage for a time.
They most certainly are, call it a 2 week burn in.
December 27, 2013, 02:27:00 PM
Could the manufactures be putting their own new product online before selling to the public. Miners are the most profitable when they are first put online from my understanding. Why wouldn't the manufactures put the first few hundred online themselves before selling them to get the max ROE. You would call it testing and it would let you test and also grab the max profit by getting the big gh advantage for a time.
December 27, 2013, 09:11:37 AM
I don't get something though, where are the recent shipments coming from?
Strange...
Strange...
There are shipments from China
I'm talking about which companies. It is clear the Fabs are in China.
It just seems strange that the large companies are not shipping right now (that I have heard) and the difficulty is still rising.
So, which companies are and have been shipping lately?
Actually, most of the fabs are not. TSMC is in Taiwan, Globalfoundries is in Germany. China also has smaller fabs, but no 28nm that Im aware off. The reference to CHina was most likely in relation to some smaller chinese players, like Bitmain, and wasnt BTCgarden supposed to be deploying around now?
But I doubt they are responsible for the increase. Its most likely bitfury based gear. Could be private mines (cloudhashing and the like), could be bitfury themselves. Technobit is also still shipping, on their site I see 1100+ bitfury based boards in stock and avalon gear as well.
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