Topic: NFL/NCAAF 2016 Picks, Tips, Discussion - page 6. (Read 4582 times)

Thanks, I have been working hard on analyzing games and putting the content on my website. Hopefully, my in-depth analysis will get better with time. It's nowhere near how good I was years ago. As far as the website go, it will get better with time.

Oh man those Chiefs let me down big time today as I had them in a parlay with the Packers, Colts, Giants and Ravens with odds of $15.35 I only had $20 on it but still it would of been nice to win with Christmas around the corner. Anyway it was a good day for me and finally I think I'm now in profit with my topic lol thanks to the big upset by the Colts, I knew they would win this game and I think they can win out now and even upset the Raiders next week to make the playoffs.

Looks like we both lost this bet, mate. The Eagles kept it close and the Ravens gave up costly turnovers and couldn't break away. Hopefully my later picks will work out better.



Your picks are looking really good so far, Bud. The Steelers really came through nicely for you along with the Under. Gratz on that one! Good Luck for the rest of the way. And nice website too, btw.

I did an experiment today by only beating by the numbers. So far not feeling so good but hopefully the rest of the day will be better. Don't ask me why I did it just wanted to have some fun today.

Picks for 1pm games
Eagles +4.5, Over 41
Browns +10.5, Under 42
Packers -5, Over 39.5
Steelers -3.5, Under 45.5 (watching this game, which is why I'm not feeling good about this)
Jaguars +4, Over 39.5
Titans +6, Over 42.5
Colts +5.5, Over 44.5
Lions +5.5, Under 42.5

Check out the rest of the picks: NFL Week 15 Picks

Going with Baltimore -5.5 vs Philadelphia, the Ravens coming from a road loss against the Patriots seems raring to get a win to keep their playoff hopes alive so it looks like they will be focused on beating the Jets on this one. Good Luck

Just going to list my picks for Sunday which I made earlier during the week to make it easier for me to grade at the end of the day. Also, when I was reviewing my pending bets on NitrogenSports, I found a teaser bet I had made using last week's New England - Baltimore Monday night game as one of the legs that I had forgotten to post. The bet is still live and in play, so I'll add it as well. For my reasoning behind my picks listed below, just scroll back through my posts from this week in this thread.

NitrogenSports NFL, 1% bets, picks in bold:

Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens -5.5 (1.905)
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs -5 (1.930)
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons -14 (1.986)
Oakland Raiders -3 (2.106) @ San Diego Chargers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 (1.976) @ Dallas Cowboys
4-Team 6 point Teaser - Ties Lose; 1% bet (3.500)
      1. Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots -6 (+6) : W
      2. Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills -10.5 (+6) : Pending
      3. Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans -5 (+6) : Pending
      4. San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons -13 (+6) : Pending

Yes, as vella said, nice hit on your Dolphins pick, mrdeposit! A great win with your 5% bet, indeed. Moore really played well for the Dolphins, throwing 4 TDs. The Jets, meanwhile are a dumpster fire. They are just pathetic. I predict the opening line for next week's Jets-Pats game with NE at home will be Patriots -21. Anything less than that and I will be all over it.

Nice hit on the Dolphins at -3 mate and to be honest it was never in doubt as the Jets were terrible tonight. The Dolphins now keep their playoff dream alive with this easy win and the back QB did pretty good but then again it was a crappy defensive team they were playing.

Thanks for the luck. I agree with everything you said. The fact that the Dolphins are in the playoff hunt is why I place my bet on them. Plus the odds are too good to pass up against such a weak team. I'll post my Sunday picks sometime tomorrow. Tell me what you think of them.

Yeah, you nailed the Under and it had a tiny bit better odds than your other bet at least. So essentially a push for that set.

Re: Dolphins-Jets. This is another game I am staying away from. I don't trust either team right now. Moore doesn't have much experience at QB - only 35 pass attempts since 2012. Ajayi gashed the Jets last time they played in Miami, but he has gained less than 50 yds in two of his last three games and hasn't reached the 100 yd mark since week 9. Also it's a warm weather team (Miami) playing in New York where the weather looks like it will be cold and wet with winds up to 20 mph. The Jets have nothing to play for except for pride at this point. They had a nice comeback win on the road last week, but that was against the shitty 49ers and the fact the Jets fell behind in the first place says more about the Jets than anything else. The Jets are one of those teams in turmoil with their coach publicly questioning the players desire to play. There is really nothing I like about this game so like I said, I'm staying away from it.

Anyway, good luck mrdeposit. If Ajayi can get on track, it should take the pressure off of Moore and give the Dolphins a good chance against an already struggling Jets team. Also, the Dolphins should be focused and motivated by the fact that they are still alive in the playoff hunt. That should give them the edge.

Well at least I was right on the Under 39. lol

My next pick is on the Saturday night football game; Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets. Dolphins are still a 3 point favorite without their starting QB Ryan Tannehill. Since the Jets defense is pretty weak, I don't think they can stop Miami's rushing game. So I'm taking -3 Miami Dolphins at +115 odds.

Pick: -3 Miami Dolphins at +115 odds. 5% of my bankroll on this bet.

Yeah, there is no way the Rams win this game. They are playing on a short week and they just fired their head coach a few days ago. Their offense wasn't even good to begin with. Goff doesn't look ready to be a starting NFL QB yet and he will be thrown against the wolves vs Seattle's defense. At the same time, 15 pts is going to be tough for the Seahawks to cover with their struggling offensive line. That's also a reason the Under looks like a good bet as well. Still, I've decided to pass on this game. I thought about teasing the spread and under 6 pts, but meh.

Anyway, Good Luck to you, mrdeposit. Those will be nice wins for you if/when they hit.

Seattle is undefeated at home this season. I don't see the Rams winning this game but I also can't see the Seahawks covering the spread. I'm taking Rams +15.5 against the Seahawks tonight for Thursday night football as well as the under 39.

Picks (5 units on each bet)
Rams +15.5 at -115
Under 39 at -110

Thanks mate and yeah it is a brave bet to bet on the Colts at the money line but something is telling me they win this week. Luck is a superstar QB and is getting paid a big amount of money and he now needs to earn it and the way he can do this is to pick up his team and lead them into the playoffs which I'm hoping can happen. I also think the Ravens cover the spread but decided to bet on them at the money line. Good luck mate!

Hey, mate. I saw your picks over in your thread. Good Luck again on your Colts underdog special pick. That's a brave play and I hope you hit it. I am adding a pick on the Eagles-Ravens game as well. I also wanted to do my usual play of fading the Cleveland Browns this week as per this season's motto of, "Always bet against the Browns," but the Bills team is in a bit of disarray at the moment and I just don't trust them to cover the -10.5 points. The Eagles will have to fill that role this week.


Sunday 18 Dec. NitrogenSports, 1% bet, pick in bold:


Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens -5.5 (1.905)

Without going into all the details of my reasoning, suffice it to say, despite their loss to New England on Monday night, the Baltimore Ravens still far outclass the Eagles as a team. And this is a must win for the Ravens playoff hopes, so they should be highly motivated even with the short week. At this point, the Eagles seem more concerned about getting all their Christmas shopping done than they are about playing out the rest of their games this season.

I also like the Chiefs this week mate as they are at home once again and as you said they want to stay top of the AFC West and also the Titans in my opinion ain't that good and should of lost last week but were just lucky. The Chiefs are a better team then the Broncos and the Titans will know it come Sunday. I also have the Ravens winning against the Eagles and my big upset of the week the Colts to win.

I hear ya, man. Those certain plays early in the match have a way of haunting teams (and us punters) later in the game. You never know exactly what will happen and what the outcomes will be. All's you can do is bet your money and hope your analysis is good. That's why they call it "gambling" and not "winning"  .


Adding a couple more early plays for Sunday:


Sunday 18 Dec. NitrogenSports NFL, 1% bets, picks in bold:


Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs -5 (1.930)

I like KC at home with their defense and the extra days of rest. They are also hightly motivated to stay atop the AFC West. Tennesse's front seven are pretty good, but their CBs are really bad. And QB Mariotta is just so-so for the Titans.


San Francisco 49er's @ Atlanta Falcons -14 (1.986)

Yes, the spread is ridiculously high. But the 9'ers are absolute garbage. They are worse than Cleveland imo. There is no talent anywhere on that team and Chip Kelly is a shit coach. My 15 year old nephew could coach better than him. Atlanta should be laser focused in their preparation for the game since they have Tampa Bay nipping at their heels for the division lead. I can see the Falcons at home hanging 35-40 pts on the inept 49ers.

Well Brady is the master and knew something could happen like that it was just that kind of night for the kickers.
Their kicks were getting blocked.
That rarely ever happens when the opposing side is trying to make a field goal and the other team blocks it. But if you saw that guy on the N.E Patriots just jump over the front line and block that kick you would be amazed. That could of been my win right there. But I didn't think of it at the time because that happened in the second quarter. I didn't think it would be even close when the second half started. I just went to sleep then I woke up just when they were putting points on the board like mad men with 9 minutes in the fourth quarter. I thought I was actually going to win. The odds were something like 4.65 so I didn't think I would of came that close to half a field goal.
Even another safety could of done it just like the one that started the scoring in the game could of won it for me. They had the chance to do that exact same thing in the third quarter but Ravens saw that scenario happening again and rushed the hell out of there as fast as they could that time.

Well done on another win mate and it got close towards the end there but the Pats were able to cover the spread for you. I decided not to have a bet on the game and just watched instead. We are now starting to see the playoff picture take shape with a few teams still alive if they play well. Just look at the AFC South any of the 3 teams can still make it lol and even if the Colts don't make it I still have the Giants and Vikings to win the Super Bowl but it's looking like a Cowboys/Pats Super Bowl at the moment. Good luck with this weeks picks.

Oh man, that sucks. That's a tough one especially since the score at halftime was so low, but then picked up in the second half. Such a tease. I feel for you, man. Yeah at the end the people who had New England -7 were prolly not happy they didn't kick a field goal when it was 4th and 1, but elected rather to go for it instead to end the game. I bet if it would have been like 4th-and-5 or even 4th-and-3, NE might have kicked the field goal to make it a 10 pt lead with little time left. The thought process was prolly, it's easier to just get one yard and end it rather than risk something crazy bad happening on a field goal try. But at least those who had NE -7 got a push, while you got f'ed. Sorry to hear that.