Topic: Nights Watch by Afrikoin - page 157. (Read 303310 times)
SSRN eLibrary Search Results papers w/ Bitcoin
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/results.cfm?RequestTimeout=50000000
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/results.cfm?RequestTimeout=50000000
From https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCCNY/ytIO7dKE-Bitcoin-breakout-REALLY/
I call this the contrarian triangle
"Ok the headline was just to get some attention...but seriously...when was the last time you saw an idea published on Bitcoin that wasn't simply regurgitating the same old permabull war cry over a 'bullish breakout'? And...from an isolated 2nd wave triangle no less (which are about as rare as dinosaur feathers by the way).
Anyway, while I'm not necessarily bearish about bitcoin (note that my status says 'neutral'), I'm here to caution against joining the bull wagon too early - and without sufficient evidence.
Consider the following:
1. The overwhelming majority of ideas published here are referring to BTCUSD-0.31% ( bitstamp ), which by ANY normal metric is thinly traded.
2. BTCEUR0.19% certainly has more volume , but could hardly be called 'liquid' by the standards of normal trading.
3. Both of the above have shown a 'breakout' of sorts....but on less than convincing volume .
4. Both above 'breakouts' lack the motive force to be classed as impulsive...they are still full of overlaps - more akin to corrective price action. (ie. wave E with its signature throw-over pattern?)
5. The chart above shows BTC/Yuan, which has far greater volume , and shows no sign whatsoever of the 'breakout' that those focused on the thinly traded markets are getting all excited about.
6. Finally, if the triangle cannot be an isolated pattern in a 2nd wave, then what is it? Very simply, it's most probably the end of wave B of an ABC correction in the larger degree of trend. This view calls for a fall to a wave C extreme beyond the low of wave A (see chart).
With all that in mind, wouldn't it be best to at least wait for the market to commit before committing to the market?
Of course I could be wrong...but someone has to play devil's advocate...lol"
Great comment on reddit! link:https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/4f0e9t/daily_discussion_saturday_april_16_2016/d25an6e
Ill post it here
" Current 4H triangles
China looking less lethargic. Here's my take on what I'm seeing around here at the moment, because it reminds me of October of last year. We were just coming up on 300 for the third time, and the ongoing meme was "this time it's different! /s". Even after 300 was broken with conviction and re-tested and bounced, people were relentlessly calling the top. Here's a run down of what the dailies looked like back in October of last year for those of you that weren't here:
"Oh 300 broke? No worries, we'll turn around at 320 and tank". "300 broke? Means nothing. Next BIG resistance at 325. better short it now". "330 broke? This turns around at 345, 350 topps. Better short it!". "No fucking way this breaks 400. We shouldn't have even broken 300. Sell!". And it was at about 420 when the majority of people here finally came around and realized how important the taking of 300 actually was.
I'm not suggesting that taking 435 or etc is as important as taking 300, but this is a very critical level and I'm seeing the same type of comments. Basically, when the price was less than 300 everyone seemed to agree that a breach of 300 would trigger big things. And it did. But everyone seemed to forget what they thought about 300 when it actually came. Half this sub went from calling a huge rally post-300 to constantly trying to call tops and short. Hindsight is 20/20 and all that, but I just want to remind you people to stick to your guns unless something is blatantly suggesting otherwise. It appears the triangles are breaking up with the notable exception of CNY. If / when CNY breaks as well, please don't forget that this is a multi-year formation and one that we're all watching very closely. It's okay to change your strategy when things change, but I saw a lot of people forget their own advice last October and they missed out on a big rally. Just an observation I'd like to share as we creep towards what I'm still expecting to be a very large rally."
Ill post it here
" Current 4H triangles
China looking less lethargic. Here's my take on what I'm seeing around here at the moment, because it reminds me of October of last year. We were just coming up on 300 for the third time, and the ongoing meme was "this time it's different! /s". Even after 300 was broken with conviction and re-tested and bounced, people were relentlessly calling the top. Here's a run down of what the dailies looked like back in October of last year for those of you that weren't here:
"Oh 300 broke? No worries, we'll turn around at 320 and tank". "300 broke? Means nothing. Next BIG resistance at 325. better short it now". "330 broke? This turns around at 345, 350 topps. Better short it!". "No fucking way this breaks 400. We shouldn't have even broken 300. Sell!". And it was at about 420 when the majority of people here finally came around and realized how important the taking of 300 actually was.
I'm not suggesting that taking 435 or etc is as important as taking 300, but this is a very critical level and I'm seeing the same type of comments. Basically, when the price was less than 300 everyone seemed to agree that a breach of 300 would trigger big things. And it did. But everyone seemed to forget what they thought about 300 when it actually came. Half this sub went from calling a huge rally post-300 to constantly trying to call tops and short. Hindsight is 20/20 and all that, but I just want to remind you people to stick to your guns unless something is blatantly suggesting otherwise. It appears the triangles are breaking up with the notable exception of CNY. If / when CNY breaks as well, please don't forget that this is a multi-year formation and one that we're all watching very closely. It's okay to change your strategy when things change, but I saw a lot of people forget their own advice last October and they missed out on a big rally. Just an observation I'd like to share as we creep towards what I'm still expecting to be a very large rally."
I agree with Chef Ramsay, moving averages are going back into rally mode.
Buy the dips ma10 day, worked best before in these cases.
Buy the dips ma10 day, worked best before in these cases.
You're about to invalidate this thread w/ such a bearish prediction. The MAs are mostly pointing north which indicate green dragon territory. I mean seriously, on the way to a halving and in the midst of a mostly bull run (being mindful of the MAs), you're predicting sub-200 - wut. Terrible forecast bro, and frankly, embarrassing.
PS Recall this
this one too
You're about to invalidate this thread w/ such a bearish prediction. The MAs are mostly pointing north which indicate green dragon territory. I mean seriously, on the way to a halving and in the midst of a mostly bull run (being mindful of the MAs), you're predicting sub-200 - wut. Terrible forecast bro, and frankly, embarrassing.
It shows three scenarios - in the black one the correction is over and we are heading towards the moon, the blue is bearish and the orange is still very bullish in mid term (it shows the intermediate target around 800 - that is much bullish for me).
This is not a very helpful prediction - basically another one of 'if we go down then we go down' - but it is not bearish in my view.
Highlighted.
NO.
The black one is a mini -fractal. Its a complete corrections within a leg of another higher fractal correction. Its for context. Shows corrections occur in ABC forms.
I agree it looks bullish. In my second chart, the black arrow shows the general direction, with a correction in between, which IMO, is what we could be in now.
I think the chart is valuable for anyone who is looking at the long term. Not to be caught up in any mega rally mania
You're about to invalidate this thread w/ such a bearish prediction. The MAs are mostly pointing north which indicate green dragon territory. I mean seriously, on the way to a halving and in the midst of a mostly bull run (being mindful of the MAs), you're predicting sub-200 - wut. Terrible forecast bro, and frankly, embarrassing.
I don't know how to interpret the
- but it shows something like an inverse head and shoulder - if we break the neck - not bearish.The previous one shows three scenarios - in the black one the correction is over and we are heading towards the moon, the blue is bearish and the orange is still very bullish in mid term (it shows the intermediate target around 800 - that is much bullish for me).
This is not a very helpful prediction - basically another one of 'if we go down then we go down' - but it is not bearish in my view.
An ode to the men who have planned To stimulate global demand They're trying to win By going all-in They're playing a desperate hand
You're about to invalidate this thread w/ such a bearish prediction. The MAs are mostly pointing north which indicate green dragon territory. I mean seriously, on the way to a halving and in the midst of a mostly bull run (being mindful of the MAs), you're predicting sub-200 - wut. Terrible forecast bro, and frankly, embarrassing.
Lol, ok.
But if you look again, you will see the orange B is a forecast anywhere upto $1163, the all time high. CLoser to $1000.
Yes, the blue one says price is going down after failing to break $500 again.
And yes too, even if we do go up, still a chance to go down some more, to $200 even - perhaps not tomorrow.
I dont think whats coming is the beginning of a mega rally some are expecting. Call it a fool's rally, enough to get attention, but not the final one.
This image is a collection of my thoughts ATM
I am thinking something along the lines of this chart - enclosed in rectangle.
You're about to invalidate this thread w/ such a bearish prediction. The MAs are mostly pointing north which indicate green dragon territory. I mean seriously, on the way to a halving and in the midst of a mostly bull run (being mindful of the MAs), you're predicting sub-200 - wut. Terrible forecast bro, and frankly, embarrassing.
You can come to your own conclusions.
Financial Times: "Barclays partners with bitcoin payments app (Circle)"
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4dk8j1/financial_times_barclays_partners_with_bitcoin/
Barclays is linking up with Circle Internet Financial, a US mobile payment start-up backed by Goldman Sachs that uses bitcoin to transfer central bank currencies, as digital money increasingly moves into mainstream finance.
It is the first time a European bank has allowed a digital currency company to use its infrastructure — enabling it to transfer sterling and euros — according to the two companies.
Boston-based Circle, which is valued at $250m, is expanding into Europe after launching a dollar transfer service for US users late last year.
From Wednesday the payment app — which transfers dollars by first converting them to bitcoin — will also be able to transmit sterling between users of the app by linking to their debit cards.
The tie-up with Barclays means Circle will be able to move sterling across the blockchain — a public ledger where bitcoin transactions are verified and recorded.
Users will be able to exchange sterling and dollars immediately and free of charge.
The move was welcomed by the UK Treasury, with economic secretary Harriet Baldwin saying that Circle’s partnership and UK launch were “major milestones”.
Jeremy Allaire, chief executive and founder of Circle, said the app would add euros “in coming months”, and had plans to add Asian currencies in the future.
Barclays said it was interested in “accelerating positive uses of blockchain”.
Using the blockchain means that money can be exchanged without using a bank clearing system.
Mr Allaire said the financial services industry did not fully realise the potential of the open-source blockchain, concentrating instead on developing its own closed versions based on similar technology.
As interest in Bitcoin increases, US officials are looking into how to regulate, rather than shut down, the virtual currency
However, Mr Allaire said that blockchain would sooner disrupt the mobile payments industry, calling it a “blank slate” for innovators.
“Payments are the next thing to be commoditised as a free service,” he said.
Alongside Goldman Sachs, the company is backed by Jim Breyer’s Breyer Capital, Oak Investment Partners, Accel Partners and General Catalyst.
Circle launched its first product, a mobile app for storing and transferring bitcoin, in late 2014 and says it has attracted customers in the “six figures” across 100 countries
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4dk8j1/financial_times_barclays_partners_with_bitcoin/
Barclays is linking up with Circle Internet Financial, a US mobile payment start-up backed by Goldman Sachs that uses bitcoin to transfer central bank currencies, as digital money increasingly moves into mainstream finance.
It is the first time a European bank has allowed a digital currency company to use its infrastructure — enabling it to transfer sterling and euros — according to the two companies.
Boston-based Circle, which is valued at $250m, is expanding into Europe after launching a dollar transfer service for US users late last year.
From Wednesday the payment app — which transfers dollars by first converting them to bitcoin — will also be able to transmit sterling between users of the app by linking to their debit cards.
The tie-up with Barclays means Circle will be able to move sterling across the blockchain — a public ledger where bitcoin transactions are verified and recorded.
Users will be able to exchange sterling and dollars immediately and free of charge.
The move was welcomed by the UK Treasury, with economic secretary Harriet Baldwin saying that Circle’s partnership and UK launch were “major milestones”.
Jeremy Allaire, chief executive and founder of Circle, said the app would add euros “in coming months”, and had plans to add Asian currencies in the future.
Barclays said it was interested in “accelerating positive uses of blockchain”.
Using the blockchain means that money can be exchanged without using a bank clearing system.
Mr Allaire said the financial services industry did not fully realise the potential of the open-source blockchain, concentrating instead on developing its own closed versions based on similar technology.
As interest in Bitcoin increases, US officials are looking into how to regulate, rather than shut down, the virtual currency
However, Mr Allaire said that blockchain would sooner disrupt the mobile payments industry, calling it a “blank slate” for innovators.
“Payments are the next thing to be commoditised as a free service,” he said.
Alongside Goldman Sachs, the company is backed by Jim Breyer’s Breyer Capital, Oak Investment Partners, Accel Partners and General Catalyst.
Circle launched its first product, a mobile app for storing and transferring bitcoin, in late 2014 and says it has attracted customers in the “six figures” across 100 countries
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/k5Sf1lp5-It-s-about-time/
another try to break out, looks pretty good this time
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