Reassuring to see the classic Chessnut chart (bullish to infinity) which was as accurate as usual.
@Tzupy - agree although I think I little higher - c $350 - but hey....
After reading the above article I think I was being bullish with a retest of 350....$250 seems more likely now.
It is very interesting seeing all these EW interpretations in one place --
the only real conclusion that you can draw is that it is completely useless with regard to a chaotic mechanism like BTC.
Well i would disagree with (bold).
That's one conclusion.
There's also A LOT more!
$250 is a target on another EW forecast for eg. DanV's chart. You must have missed it.
And there's another one (EW) that forecasts upto $100
So you see, you are missing the bigger picture here. It is about probable moves, and checking them off as they do/ do not happen.
That's IMO
That is exactly right!
EW separates the possible from the impossible and provides stop loss by way of hard rules. So there can be both bullish and bearish counts from the same structure. As with any form of market analysis, you won't always be right, but the rules are there to get you out of a wrong-side trade early.
You could substitute the words 'E.W." with tea leaves or Kau Cim and rationalise their results the same way. "Well, one of them was a correct prediction" is no real justification for a predictive method.
There is always the bias of the analyst, which is why there is always such a broad range of completely different charts, especially since most of 'analysts' are bedroom based auto-didacts who swear they are both incredibly skilled and completely 'unemotional'. And of course, the male of the species loves to believe he has powers of foresight which can be explained by maths and science.
When I first started with BTC 3/4 years back there was an incredible thread by some guy who provided the most amazing mathematical/statistical analysis (trend reversal perhaps, I can't recall) -- he got completely caught out by the second Gox bubble.
BTC has too many chaotic variables to rely on any one specific indicator.
I am so tired of this discussion, so I'll put it another way... A way a woman can understand. I know what it's like when you don't understand something, baby! Like, I don't understand why someone would go into a TA thread and complain that it doesn't work. You sound like an overly enthusiastic religious mom, or something... Trying to convert others to your point of view as if your pov is the only and right system. Just walk away and ignore it if you don't believe in it. If it's just a self fulfilling prophecy, then why not learn it? Then, at very least, you will be on the same page as the rest of us retard analysts and you profit. Or don't! I certainly dgaf one way or the other. It works for me and I have shown it in my thread. Is it perfect? Absolutely not! Then again, nothing ever is, just like Bitcoin. I'm wrong from time to time, in fact, just the other day, I thought I made a mistake. It happens!