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Topic: Nights Watch by Afrikoin - page 161. (Read 303329 times)

sr. member
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March 04, 2016, 04:29:12 PM
Looks like BTC is fucked

Looks like your ETH is fucked which has no real use and 0 adoption !

Doesn't look that way where im sitting
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March 04, 2016, 04:24:26 PM
Looks like BTC is fucked

Looks like your ETH is fucked which has no real use and 0 adoption !
sr. member
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March 04, 2016, 04:22:25 PM
Looks like BTC is fucked
legendary
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alan watts is all you need
March 04, 2016, 03:44:49 PM
Well that did not exactly follow the pattern I was expecting. On the positive, the new bottom seems to be forming around ~420:



This is not yet clear on the picture, but it is suggested by momentum indicators. The next 24 hours will be important.
If the daily can come back from its oversold condition, which I think it will, we are doing good.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $419.85)
legendary
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alan watts is all you need
February 29, 2016, 11:26:30 PM
Cup and handle from last year




what actually happened


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February 29, 2016, 11:23:13 PM
legendary
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alan watts is all you need
February 29, 2016, 11:11:57 PM
Looks like a triangle is shaping up before we resume the uptrend to find a C wave top of the B wave of the full correction since the $1163 high. However, if we break the ~$380 level, BTC will likely resume the downtrend straightaway.




I still don't buy the triangle - Here's why:

In a triangle formation, at least in terms of EW (not sure if that's what you practice), each subwave of the triangle must subdivide into 3's.  And it works.. until around the end of the C. I would argue that (a) on your chart you prematurely place C, I would put it further up where we come in much closer range of the rising trend line; in the event that wave C actually finishes a little further up where I mentioned, I would then argue (b) wave D is in no way a 3 wave structure.

Now, couple these two points with the fact that literally everyone and their mothers are tracking this triangle, and I would say there's a good chance it doesn't play out.

Still may though  Lips sealed  Grin

You rais a good point in bold, and I agree with you. Eveyone is watching this structure now, and it might not unfold as expected. OR, it might unfold in a way that gets people off guard. OR it might just unfold as is and fool everyone into thinking we are done with the bear market and are in a new bull cycle. << sounds a lot like a wave 5

"Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received)."

from Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

It would be foolish to completely 100% believe an X move will materialize, a healthy bias is important and its part why I love this thread.  But at the end of the day, if someone asked you where the market was headed, you need to come up with a single answer. Which for me, in this case is bullish (regardless of my other doubts)

This triangle also reminds me a lot about the cup and handle pattern from last year. Remember what happened? It fell all the way to $198 on bitstamp and $162 on Bitfinex and then resumed up.

What also informs my bullish opinion is traders like Raoul from Real Vision TV, adambtsg, DanV are all mostly expecting some form of break up (if $380/ lower $352 holds). Even this random guy who is anon bitcoiner from tip tv finance show is forecasting $697 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9DqVWZXhE8&feature=youtu.be&t=4m45s

The thing is, a B wave retracement here was always going to hit $500 up to an allowance of $750. Could could up to $1000 depending on how the ABC wave structure on the larger cycle will form. (I have posted charts here before).

These two statements best summarize the mixed opinions at this level

Bearish: “$440-450 is my upper limit. Beyond that and I will be long term bullish on bitcoin… I am still bearish for the majority of 2016”

Bullish: “The market reacted very well to the [The Bitcoin Roundtable Consensus] news, and we are seeing very strong support at this new 440$ level. I firmly believe this news will catapult bitcoin to 750. A correction is underway, i’m thinking we will keep pushing new highs day in day out for weeks if not months.”
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February 29, 2016, 06:44:40 PM

Fun show but I believe Tone Vays is too bearish on bitcoin.

Their past few bitcoin predictions were not too accurate if I remember correct.
On the other markets I have no opinion.
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February 29, 2016, 12:14:56 PM
Looks like a triangle is shaping up before we resume the uptrend to find a C wave top of the B wave of the full correction since the $1163 high. However, if we break the ~$380 level, BTC will likely resume the downtrend straightaway.




I still don't buy the triangle - Here's why:

In a triangle formation, at least in terms of EW (not sure if that's what you practice), each subwave of the triangle must subdivide into 3's.  And it works.. until around the end of the C. I would argue that (a) on your chart you prematurely place C, I would put it further up where we come in much closer range of the rising trend line; in the event that wave C actually finishes a little further up where I mentioned, I would then argue (b) wave D is in no way a 3 wave structure.

Now, couple these two points with the fact that literally everyone and their mothers are tracking this triangle, and I would say there's a good chance it doesn't play out.

Still may though  Lips sealed  Grin
legendary
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alan watts is all you need
February 29, 2016, 01:53:12 AM
Did anyone watch DanVs video webinar?

Please share summary.
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February 28, 2016, 05:45:10 AM
Looks like a triangle is shaping up before we resume the uptrend to find a C wave top of the B wave of the full correction since the $1163 high. However, if we break the ~$380 level, BTC will likely resume the downtrend straightaway.


legendary
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alan watts is all you need
February 27, 2016, 04:54:37 AM
Raoul Pal ‏@RaoulGMI Feb 22

#bitcoin #btc It's looking explosive in Bitcoin world right now...

https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/701836307950129153

legendary
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alan watts is all you need
legendary
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alan watts is all you need
February 27, 2016, 12:13:02 AM
i am fucking bullish.

waiting for danv's webinar later today
legendary
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alan watts is all you need
February 27, 2016, 12:06:45 AM
Why A Hedge Fund Manager Who Made A Killing From Subprime Is Buying Bitcoin

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-26/why-hedge-fund-manager-who-made-killing-subprime-buying-bitcoin
legendary
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February 26, 2016, 07:58:28 PM
legendary
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alan watts is all you need
February 26, 2016, 04:12:44 PM
legendary
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alan watts is all you need
February 26, 2016, 04:06:37 PM
That means it's going down?  I r such noob.

well, according to the chart, its either up or down.


AHHH, the idea is as we approach the end of that triangle it will break up or down eh?

i see what you tryna do. i won't bite,

i am more interested in the less obvious.

the rectangles  - transparent and in blue.

looks like the early pattern form of patterns in rectangles
legendary
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February 26, 2016, 04:02:04 PM
That means it's going down?  I r such noob.

well, according to the chart, its either up or down.


AHHH, the idea is as we approach the end of that triangle it will break up or down eh?
legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003
alan watts is all you need
February 26, 2016, 03:56:46 PM


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