I assume the despair phase would rather being triggered by (missing) new information about dev than a critical value shortfall.
So I expect one of four drop scenarios:
- Sneak peak is revealed before 25th but doesn't show trustworthy progress.
- Monthly update gets published somewhen before 25th with empty phrases.
- Gulden value drops slowly and reaches a critical low before a new announcement is out. Then a load of long time holders start selling to get out even.
- We reach end of month (lets say 25th) without official news from dev and the lack of trust starts despair phase.
However no idea what the critical value for a mass exodus would be.