For a start I don't think we have seen any math to "prove" that the penalty system will give us >90% protection (does anyone have that information?).
From the text by BCNext/cfb, it seems so to me. don't know about the math
The health of the network is dependent upon people forging (for whatever reason they do it) so my concern is that penalising smaller stake holders for "not forging" could reduce the number of forging nodes and therefore potentially "weaken" the network (by making it more vulnerable to governments who might decide to order the shutdown of servers).
In fact, I think penalizing or not has very little effect to smaller stake holders, because it takes them a very long time to forge a block, it doesn't make sense to forge for just a few days and shut down the computer.
Edit: unless lots of large stake holders are shut down by governments