Thanks for the thread! (I love big data sets).
I would like to clarify some points (to make sure that I understand your strategy correctly):
Thank you! I appreciate the comment, and I don't get a lot of responses here but I did want to see how long my strategy could play out. I'll address your questions, but some comments first.
a. It's a big shame that most of the betslips I post here no longer point to valid links. Bitcoinrush was THE best for long odds. For a very long time. Fairlay remains very good most of the time, but only for odds higher than 10/1, and those links still point to valid results I think. All other links or bet IDs unfortunately can't be verified without manual interaction with the relevant sportsbook but for me it's very important that I put money on my picks, otherwise, I can just make things up =)
1.) You are placing bets exclusively on underdogs/high-odds events (including multi-bets).
For the most part, yes. But my multis tend to be favourites OR majority favourites, to "boost" the underdog pick. So the singles tend to be high value -- 5/1 and up. This is where you get the most added value when you shop around for odds. Value is important here for simple statistics. For example, a 2/1 win should win 50% of the time, but this isn't reflected in market. But if a team should win 1/10 of the times but the odds are only 5/1, it's also bad value. A great team that should win 1/2 times but gets odds of 3/1 is super value, and when I see odds like these, I multiply my base bet.
2.) For the bet, you choose the best odds among all on the market - I am sure of understanding this point
Correct! These days, most bookies in crypto tend to use the same odds provider, and Pinnacle is the market standard. Then it's up to the books to add/remove their own juice. I should update this in my OP but roughly:
Stake: best odds for MMA
Sportsbet: best odds for 5+multis (their tiered boost adds up incrementally per additional leg)
Fairlay: best extreme odds (this is a P2P market so you can find crazy deals)
However, every book also has different ongoing promotions, which can drastically add value, which I do my best to mention throughout my picks. FortuneJack for example used to have 25% cashback on every bet in UCL -- that was really good. Sportsbet has free insurance from 5-legs and up. Stake has moneyback on UFC split decisions if you lose. All of these are value bets for the casual punter.
3.) Profit statistics by seasons are indicated not in abstract units, but in specific percentages of the initial deposit.
Actually, they are based in units. I start each season with 10,000 units and each bet is a base of 100 units. When I first started this thread in 2018, 100 units was 100,000 satoshi, and I intended to make the base bets 1% of bankroll. I intended also that these were small bets, suited to the casual gambler so that was about $5 to $6 at a time, for a total starting bankroll of $500-$600.
I see now that I neglected to update the OP some time after, because as price became difficult to calculate with BTC volatility, I stopped even using 1% and just maintained a fix unit base bet, as it actually doesn't matter anymore to the reader how much they decide 1 unit is. For me today, 100 units is 0.2 mbtc (roughly $12 now), which you will see in my betslips, but that is rather a lot of money for casual gambling (a season bankroll of $1200!).
I will update OP but I think arbitrary units is better, and keeping the base bet at 100 units doesn't use compounding, so the percentage growth/loss isn't too volatile. Thus you could use a $100 bankroll or $100,000 bankroll and 100 units for you is either $1 or $100.
4.) You make bets based on numbers (odds) and not on your understanding of the game, that is, you can place a bet without even understanding the essence of a sporting event.
Not correct. I do take some unknowns, but the vast majority of my bets are based on my understanding, which is why most of them are in football, a game I follow across several leagues. I refer you to my answer in the first question... knowing how a team plays, their form, their squad, their recent record -- and matching it up to the odds, tells me what's a good value bet.
Today's pick for example, Napoli vs Legia Warsaw. Napoli are the clear favourites. They're excellent in the league, score goals for fun, but this is Europa, where the 1st choice squads are seldom the coach's pick for big teams. Unlike the inferior team, who almost always fields a full-strength squad. And the odds are close to 17/1. This means the market expects the away team to only win once in 17 meets.
I find that to be a gross underestimation of the Polish team.
I was just playing football with my mates and one guy really took it to the next level. He had PSV socks, Barca jersey and United hoodie. Really had some fun on his expanse since those 3 are his favorite clubs, bad day huh.
