Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 20. (Read 40042 times)

@KTChampions Thanks for your calculations -- and I promise to return to address some of the earlier comments, hopefully by 2 weeks if not this. Just caught up with work.

P.S. Fairlay actually has even better odds now than the bookies, whose odds have remained the same as you stated but increased by almost 8% on Fairlay -- as I said, usually the best odds for underdogs but you would actually get even better at Sportsbet with price boost.

It's difficult for me to make timings but I do try actually! For example, if I like a bet, the market can shift quite drastically and I do try to catch it at 15% more (an arbitrary percentage perhaps).

And yes, because of margins, it simply makes sense to take larger odds (when it suits you). It could even be a blind strategy and I'm almost certain bookies calculate this "theoretical profit" into their systems.

P.S. What's your nick mean?

Unfortunately, I could not make calculations using the old data, since I need the odds on the entire set of outcomes, and not only on the one on which the bet was made. Therefore, I will make calculations in those cases when I have such data, like now:


1.44 - 4.50 - 6.80 from sportsbet

1,45 - 4,60 - 6,60 from stake

First, I will calculate the bookmaker's margin:

1/1.44 + 1/4.5 + 1/6.8 =~ 1.064

1/1.45 + 1/4.6 + 1/6.6 =~ 1.059

If we assume that the margin is evenly added to each outcome (which is most likely incorrect, since usually there is a bias towards the favorite but it can be ignored now), then fair odds should be:

1.53 - 4.79 - 7.23

1.54 - 4.87 - 6.99

The consensus estimate of the chance of a third outcome would be 7.11, you were able to place a bet with odds of 7.37 and thus received a profit (theoretical) of 3.65%.

Feels good when everything falls into place. Besiktas indeed snapped their winless run at home, even though they had to climb back from a goal down AND survive a penalty. But the second leg, worth almost 3/1, turned out the more comfortable one. Getafe getting themselves 1, then 2 men down, certainly helped, but Mina and Aspas hit the mark as I hoped even before the sending offs.

EFL cup tonight and I'm backing a full-team Soton to smack a Lukaku-less Chelsea who might make the mistake of treating Saints like the Canaries.

100 units at Fairly on S'ton to WIN vs Chelsea @7.37. Other odds: 6.88
Units advantage: 49

Typical to lose on the worst market (corners), but it was a day to remember anyway, just happy for the win all around.

Anyway, a short 2-leg bet today sees us banking on Aspas and Mina to get their team out of trouble and win tough away at Getafe. Parlay that with Besiktas home win to break their ugly home streak too.

100 units at Sportsbet on Celta Vigo and Besiktas to WIN @7.38. Other odds: 7.12
Units advantage: 26




Thanks man, yeah. It had a lot of bets riding on this, and the manner it was won, to be celebrating like that by half time, sometimes these passion bets really make great memories haha.

A prayer for your mate. Was my son instead last night who I spared the blushes by watching the game in my room. He's all United, and he was so happy the season getting Ronaldo, Varane, Sancho, etc. FIFA ratings guy also looking away.

Yeah, I know that one, it usually pays really well in games like this where there isn't a clear favorite. Congrats man on cashing all those bets, sometimes it pays to bet with your heart. I usually try to avoid betting on my favorite team due to bias.

Ajax also trashed PSV 5:0, how the great have fallen I was just playing football with my mates and one guy really took it to the next level. He had PSV socks, Barca jersey and United hoodie. Really had some fun on his expanse since those 3 are his favorite clubs, bad day huh.

Yeah, and I also have 2 other big parlays with Liverpool the last leg, so this win was a really, really big cashout for me. I actually put a tiny bet on United double chance at 28/1, which would have at least returned all my wagers had Liverpool somehow found a way to let in 4+ goals.

Absolutely right, couldn't have asked for a worst defence. Keita's goal was too easy, Salah's second goal he even looked embarrassed to score as it was just, well, handed to him on a platter.

Sorry for not being clear, it's the team leading at HT/FT market. One of my favourites actually as Liverpool seldom give up a lead these days, so it's like a HT win, and then FT win. So it's like parlaying HT and FT 1x2.

Your big bet on Fairlay looks like done deal, United really looks like shit defensively in the first half. If there wasn't that game against Atalanta during the week I would be absolutely sure, but Liverpool also saw that and I expect them to slow the game a run down the clock a bit in second half while waiting for opportunity to send another ball behind United defense.

"LIV lead both halves" - what is this market? Never seen it. Does it mean that is won if Liverpool has a lead at least for a second in both halves? Basically you are playing Liverpool to win first half with a bit of added security.

Sorry I missed your response to mine -- promise to add further comments.

But for today, I needed to put 2 picks, and with Super Boost on the game at Sportsbet.io, there are no better odds around for a "betbuilder" type of game (markets all in the same game).

100 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool Betbuilder:
Salah anytime score
LIV lead both halves
LIV over 5.5 corners
Man Utd over 19.5 booking points
LIV score first
Over 2.5 goals

Odds: 16.40. Other odds (by trying the same multipliers): 15.28
Units advantage: 112

And 500 units at Fairlay on Liverpool to WIN vs Man Utd @2.45. Other odds: 2.38
Units advantage: 7x5=35

Total units advantage: 147

It turns out that once you eventually refused to rebalance the size of the bet, the profit as a percentage of the units and the profit as a percentage of the deposit, for example, for the 3rd seasons are the same, right? So you got 101.78% profit in BTC = 101.78% profit in units.
If you have a certain period where you were making a clear rebalancing, then you could compare how much the rebalancing of the bet size changes the income in the BTC relative to the income in units. I understand that rebalancing reduces the likelihood of losing the entire deposit, but I would like to know the price of this reliability.


Sad  Because the ideal option would be to find a strategy that will provide an edge over the bookmaker regardless of our competence in any sport. However, I think the reason for your success is not that you predict better than bookmakers, but in the choice of odds, which on average turn out to be more profitable than "odds without bookmaker's margin" a little later I will try to write about this in more detail. I have some theory hehe 
As for your example, I completely agree with the analysis, when discussing even previous matches, I wrote that Napoli will most likely focus on Serie A (due to a great start) and the rest of the competition will have a low priority, therefore, in these matches, a bet on underdog will be profitable on average.

Your successful results attracted my attention by the fact that from the point of view of the theory of probability, they should not exist - given the distance that you have traveled, the resulting profit cannot be accidental. Now I have to do some calculations and I will write my thoughts later. I hope I can extract data from the thread (for calculations, I need not only the odds of the chosen outcome, but the odds to the rest outcomes too).

Thank you! I appreciate the comment, and I don't get a lot of responses here but I did want to see how long my strategy could play out. I'll address your questions, but some comments first.

a. It's a big shame that most of the betslips I post here no longer point to valid links. Bitcoinrush was THE best for long odds. For a very long time. Fairlay remains very good most of the time, but only for odds higher than 10/1, and those links still point to valid results I think. All other links or bet IDs unfortunately can't be verified without manual interaction with the relevant sportsbook but for me it's very important that I put money on my picks, otherwise, I can just make things up =)

For the most part, yes. But my multis tend to be favourites OR majority favourites, to "boost" the underdog pick. So the singles tend to be high value -- 5/1 and up. This is where you get the most added value when you shop around for odds. Value is important here for simple statistics. For example, a 2/1 win should win 50% of the time, but this isn't reflected in market. But if a team should win 1/10 of the times but the odds are only 5/1, it's also bad value. A great team that should win 1/2 times but gets odds of 3/1 is super value, and when I see odds like these, I multiply my base bet.

Correct! These days, most bookies in crypto tend to use the same odds provider, and Pinnacle is the market standard. Then it's up to the books to add/remove their own juice. I should update this in my OP but roughly:
Stake: best odds for MMA
Sportsbet: best odds for 5+multis (their tiered boost adds up incrementally per additional leg)
Fairlay: best extreme odds (this is a P2P market so you can find crazy deals)

However, every book also has different ongoing promotions, which can drastically add value, which I do my best to mention throughout my picks. FortuneJack for example used to have 25% cashback on every bet in UCL -- that was really good. Sportsbet has free insurance from 5-legs and up. Stake has moneyback on UFC split decisions if you lose. All of these are value bets for the casual punter.

Actually, they are based in units. I start each season with 10,000 units and each bet is a base of 100 units. When I first started this thread in 2018, 100 units was 100,000 satoshi, and I intended to make the base bets 1% of bankroll. I intended also that these were small bets, suited to the casual gambler so that was about $5 to $6 at a time, for a total starting bankroll of $500-$600.

I see now that I neglected to update the OP some time after, because as price became difficult to calculate with BTC volatility, I stopped even using 1% and just maintained a fix unit base bet, as it actually doesn't matter anymore to the reader how much they decide 1 unit is. For me today, 100 units is 0.2 mbtc (roughly $12 now), which you will see in my betslips, but that is rather a lot of money for casual gambling (a season bankroll of $1200!).

I will update OP but I think arbitrary units is better, and keeping the base bet at 100 units doesn't use compounding, so the percentage growth/loss isn't too volatile. Thus you could use a $100 bankroll or $100,000 bankroll and 100 units for you is either $1 or $100.

Not correct. I do take some unknowns, but the vast majority of my bets are based on my understanding, which is why most of them are in football, a game I follow across several leagues. I refer you to my answer in the first question... knowing how a team plays, their form, their squad, their recent record -- and matching it up to the odds, tells me what's a good value bet.

Today's pick for example, Napoli vs Legia Warsaw. Napoli are the clear favourites. They're excellent in the league, score goals for fun, but this is Europa, where the 1st choice squads are seldom the coach's pick for big teams. Unlike the inferior team, who almost always fields a full-strength squad. And the odds are close to 17/1. This means the market expects the away team to only win once in 17 meets.

I find that to be a gross underestimation of the Polish team.

Thanks for the thread! (I love big data sets).
I would like to clarify some points (to make sure that I understand your strategy correctly):
1.) You are placing bets exclusively on underdogs/high-odds events (including multi-bets).
2.) For the bet, you choose the best odds among all on the market - I am sure of understanding this point  
3.) Profit statistics by seasons are indicated not in abstract units, but in specific percentages of the initial deposit.
4.) You make bets based on numbers (odds) and not on your understanding of the game, that is, you can place a bet without even understanding the essence of a sporting event.

One win too far for the boys at Tiraspol, but Liverpool escaped Wanda with all 3 points, we probably shouldn't have! Revenge is still sweet and we wait for them at Anfield, but not before we try and take a bite out of Ronaldo United at Old Trafford.

For tonight though, we revisit Napoli, whose loss to Moscow last game won us a nice fat padding. Let's go for Legia Warsaw to inflict even more pain, shall we?

100 units at Fairlay on Legia Warsaw to WIN vs Napoli @18.96. Other odds: 18
Units advantage: 96

Nope, no joy against City, and we didn't take it today either as odds were not tasty (guess people really rate Club Brugge these days). But we're searching for Sheriff third time in a row today. If you beat Real, surely Inter's nothing right? Haha.

100 units at Fairlay on Sheriff Tiraspol to WIN vs Inter Milan @16.16. Other odds: 14.80
Units advantage: 136

And a big Liverpool bet too, why not? 500 units on Liverpool to WIN vs Atletico @2.39. Other odds: 2.26
Units advantage: 13x5 = 65

One leg short of insurance, our last acca. Disappointing to say the least, especially that US actually had to come back from behind. Hope the bookies take note and improve the rewards for backing a squad going backwards.

Here's our traditional go-against-City bet.

100 units at Fairlay on Burnley to WIN vs Man City @23.38. Other odds: 18.50
Units advantage: 488

Lousy night of football, but I'm dipping into CONCACAF and Brasileiro today!

100 units at Sportsbet, insured, boosted on HT wins for Flamengo, USA, Mexico plus FT wins for Canada and Honduras @27.66. Other odds: 25.15
Units advantage: 251



Yeah, I'd even feel ashamed to celebrate a goal scored like that, and I have been in that situation and it is embarrassing to want to claim a goal like that. Anyway, chalk it off to another poor VAR decision.

Exactly, I feel like referees should use common sense in situations like this. Football is a sport where there will always be some situation that needs to be judged. You simply can't write the rules to make judgement unnecessary. Referees also have the added help of VAR and they can watch the situation again. Thing like this simply should not happen. I believe there is not many professional footballers who would say that is regular goal.

OK a quick 2 bets here. Greece has been good to me and I fancy them getting another tight win here. Parlay that with a close victory for S Africa to squeeze out some juice?

100 units at Sportsbet on Greece and S Africa to WIN @6.58. Other odds: 6.30
Units advantage: 28

And a traditional underdog, strangely can't find better odds than SB boosted: 100 units on Austria to WIN vs Denmark @7.60. Other odds: 7.48
Units advantage: 12



Ooo I had no idea Stake had such odds. I always check them actually but their odds on football are generally quite poor but their promos are pretty rad too. I took first goalscorer bets yesterday and got both refunded/voided as Lukaku didn't play, and Benzema did score. Upsets on EPL there can be quite good if you also take the '15 goal promo into account, it kind of makes up for poorer odds.

Yeah, I can never forgive Mbappe's goal. Surprised not more talk about it, and my son says it's perfectly valid. I told him: if you actually play football, you know how unfair it is and how it's impossible situation for defenders.

I have one tip just about for you. Gibraltar to win against Netherlands @100 Sportsbet is not giving you odds for this, since they have handicaps, I think middle line is set around 6.5 but you can play it on Stake and some other bookies. Not gonna happen but still sounds like something you could consider. That is what I call a proper upset.

I was happy with Nations League final but that second goal from France should never been allowed.

Well, you got your BTTS so I guess you had a good Sunday Trofo, I was happy too, even though didn't win anything. Strange game but entertaining, can't say they didn't give us a showpiece!

Iceland meet tiny Lichtenstein tonight, and I'm going to go for a proper upset.

100 units at Fairlay on Lichtenstein to WIN vs Iceland @30.39. Other odds: 24.00
Units advantage: 639

I could not pick my favorite for the win tonight and wanted to play something to make it more interesting to watch...So of course I went with my staple placed a bet on both to score market. So let's get a 3:2 win for Spain with 21 points (blackjack) and everybody is happy

Just want a nice entertaining game to close out the Nations League and Sunday.