Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 15. (Read 38849 times)

Just started watching City and crazy Pep fileded 9 players from usual first 11 plus Palmer and keeper.

Your only chance is money back tonight. Sorry mate for pointing this game to you. I hate Pep roulette. That guy screwed me so many times in fantasy. I feel like he is doing it on purpose.

Thanks Trofo for that! I didn't get that email and I just checked too, but I'll have a look see and definitely throw $50 in there ha. I almost always take the Watford 1x2 there, and the funny thing is the only 2 games they've ever scored first and then later did not win was the Brentford and West Ham ones just 2 and 3 games ago. West Ham one was worth it at 3/1.

Anyway, seems like forum mods combined my last 2 posts, I guess because they were less than 24 hours from each other. Might have to change the way this thread works now. Just in case someone thought I edited picks. Shame about Napoli, they took the lead but couldn't hold it.

Bayern has a really bad Gladbach to beat, so no way they lose, but maybe they allow the away team to take a lead into half time?

100 units at Gladbach to WIN at HT v Bayern Munich @6.76. Other odds: 6.00
Units advantage: 76

Hey man, don't know if you have account on Stake but I just got offer from them like they know you At least I thought of you immediately.

I guess they are entering in sponsorship deal with Swidon and they have nice promo for their FA cup encounter with city. Odds are just about right for you @11, City will rotate a lot and money back if Swidon scores a goal. Here is whole deal:

3 draws, not pretty, but we take some comfort in that tonight is a sure win (haha).

Cup games are anything but a given and I think bookies are giving Chelsea a bit too much of an advantage here, so I'm going with a Spurs win today, and double the stakes on them

200 units on Spurs to WIN vs Chelsea @4.68. Other odds: 4.30
Units advantage: 38x2=76

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Painful to watch the game last night, Chelsea completely overran Spurs, and their fastest and best passers were the back four... Moura was okay, and Son as usual their best player but when Kane is shit, the team is shit.

Since I like losing money so much, let's do another double stake on another team up against a fav.

200 units on Napoli to WIN vs Juventus @6.62. Other odds: 6.05
Units advantage: 57x2=114

Finally. A sweet win from Joao Moutinho to hammer the nail home in Rangnick's gegenpressing failure. Wolves deserved this, absolutely battering United's corner but man they need to find a way to be incisive if I've to back them again.

Going for a home acca today in Algeria and League Two:
100 units on ASM Oran, El Bayadh, Hamra Annaba, MO Bejaia and Forest Green Rovers to WIN @10.68. Other odds: 9.85.
Units advantage: 83

Bummer on everything, even if United win tonight, I'll lose the insurance on my long acca above. So why not take a value Wolves bet? Jimenez to score and keep it tight and frustrate the Red Devils? I say yes.

100 units at Sportsbet on Wolves to WIN vs Man UTd @6.76. Other odds: 6.20
Units advantage: 56
Bet ID: 61d2f817d1d9a760f0c9bb39

Seems like a value bet which I plan to use in the future. Did not pass today but Liverpool had great chances in the first half. Seems to me they start good and then problems get bigger and bigger if they are unable to score since opponent gets to defend deeply and that leaves little space for Salah and Mane.

^ Just a word of caution. This isn't at all a tipster thread, so I don't really provide tips on who to bet, just which bets to me seem to have really good value. Saints is only below 4/1, Spurs aren't guaranteed a win but odds not nice enough for me.

I'm doing a nice 5-leg acca today, boosted and insured at Sportsbet.
100 units on Liverpool (HT), West Ham, Spurs, Palace, Blackburn Rovers @22.81. Other odds: 21.45
Units advantage: 136

Could it be that Manchester City will finally loss against Brentford Boss ?
I followed your tips for Leicester City to triumph but they couldn't get a complete come back.
The odds are tempting .

Also for Southampton to win over Tottenham at home.
What's you view about this?
@buwaytress.

Boxing Day! And I've got 3 great picks all bursting with value, so if I just hit one I'll be a happy gambler.

First off, Leicester to beat City as my traditional "bet against City game" and at almost 17/1, I think this is hands-on my Christmas special
Then, Villa is 5/1 against Chelsea, I'll put them on a small acca with SIPG in China to take a home win.
Finally, Conte is whining too much, so I'm going to give Vieira a win against them, parlayed with what should be a strong Hammers showing at home.
All at Sportsber:

100 units on Leicester City to WIN vs Man City @16.95. Other odds: 16.00. Bet ID: 61c34907d1d9a74bc1bedcab
100 units on Villa and SIPG to WIN @7.75. Other odds: 7.60. Bet ID: 61c84378184fc493fbe5e2c0
100 units on Palace and West Ham to WIN @9.54. Other odds: 9.40. Bet ID: 61c84390184fc48523e5e2d9

Total units advantage: 95+15+14 = 124



Just go ahead and do it! No pressure, open a thread, just try and post as often as you can, the discipline will come later with routine (and you can see this last few weeks I've been inactive but it's okay!)

At the end of every season, I do make a final count and add it to the first post (on page 1), linking to the post for reference. I'm quite happy to be in positive for the first 3 seasons but I have a feeling I might end up negative this one partially due to my inactiveness but also missing a lot of upsets.

Understand you, I also use several devices, but prefer to write from one. And i want to start a similar experiment, but I am experiencing same problems with free time and partly with discipline 
I am still pondering the predictive accuracy of the closing line and is it possible to make money on it
By the way, I think if at the end of the season you, in addition to public statistics, announce the total statistics of your bets (without numbers, just percentages), I think it will delight all readers of this thread.

@KTChampions: It's just been a really difficult time this end of year yeah, my schedule is somewhat disrupted and I can access this forum no problem, but to update this thread, I much prefer to be on my regular device, able to shift properly between windows and compare books without rushing, so yeah, I still make my bets, but just don't really have the comfortable access to make the necessary comparisons and put it here. I've actually on occasion dumped a bet in here without bet IDs or even odd comparisons from my phone, but I try not to make that a habit.

@Trofo: Honestly, you were really unlucky there. I only chose Real because Benzema was still of all the games last night, the one the bookies thought likeliest to score (these days it's Salah and Benzema and Ronaldo when they're listed on squad, such are their form right now). But it's like we just keep jinxing each other huh!

And about West Ham, well, too bad they fell behind to early Spurs goal too. I was of course watching Liverpool B snatch an incredible penalty win against Leicester (I honestly thought we were going to lose 5-0 or something after Vardy's second goal).

Really appreciate you both following this thread

I like the Cup games in Portugal tonight, would have taken all 3 but they also happen to be a boosted special on Sportsbet, no harm throwing a few dollars at it, right?

100 units on Rio Ave, Braga, Porto to WIN @8.80. Other odds: 7.98
Units advantage: 82

 
1-2 already. It looks like the teams are set for a productive match, I wonder if Real Madrid will be able to create a comfortable reserve of goals before it's time to make substitutions. Real Madrid have practically no adequate substitutions, Athletic must increase the pace and try to win in physics.

And then Benzema scores two goals in first seven minutes of the game and I feel like a fool for taking an informed approach and skipping the bet. Had to happen that way after I wrote about it

Thanks for the information, I have not heard about this and therefore I was surprised by the unexpectedly pleasant odds on Real 
However, in my opinion, the coefficient compensates for the risk in this case, for a multi-bet it is a good option. It is better to take a risk for a good profit than to make “correct” bets of 1.3-1.4 and then find out that the favorite could not score a goal and the entire multi-bet collapsed.

Why on Real today mate? As I was writing in our La Liga pool topic Real will be missing 11 players today. They still have good first 11 but this one is a skip for sure. Just not worth taking the risk in my opinion.

I have West Ham pegged as a draw, and I believe this is first time in months I actually put a draw on the ticket. Never play draws since I can't cheer properly for outcome but decided to go for it on 10 legged multi. Not gonna come anyway, it is just for fun.

Glad to see you back. By the way, you don't have time just to run this thread or even to place bets (in the sense, do you place bets without publishing here)?
And in my opinion, your today's rate has a good chance of winning, firstly, the odds are not so big (not 20 at least  ), and secondly, you haven't won for a long time, as I see, it's time for luck to smile at you.

I know, I know. It's like I don't have time anymore for this thread, but let's see if I can boot up my bad year with a simple 2-legged affair tonight. Real Madrid can widen the gap at the top, and they should, while West Ham have already taken out two big teams in the EFL cup, why not Spurs?

100 units at Sportsbet on West Ham and Real Madrid to WIN @8.50. Other odds: 8.28
Bet ID: 61c348da62470925b0e3a3cf
Units advantage: 22

Not a desired result but the win wasn't great either for the home team. Today, a traditional "bet City" bet looks promising. Leeds almost did it against Chelsea, and City needed a penalty against Wolves, so I'm liking the odds.

100 units at Sportsbet on Leeds to WIN vs Man City @18.60. Other odds: 18.00
Units advantage: 60

Leeds actually took the lead, and Chelsea needed TWO penalties to make it out of this alive. That's 3 games in a row now they've let in more than goal when they had the stingiest defence in all of England. Boat's a-rocking, Tuchel -D

Anyway, @dittoup has a massive pick which I'm absolutely following in Scandi football. A rare handicap pick but I can't ignore over 20/1 odds for the final game of the season for Sarpsborg to just finish this Eliteserien season on a high.

100 units at Sportsbet on Sarpsborg (1:0) to WIN against Brann @20.80. Other odds: 20.
Units advantage: 80