Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 15.

Trofo

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I don't even try to predict who will win between Bayern and Dortmund, I just place a bet on both to score as soon as I see it in the offer

Maybe I'll add even both to score in both halves which has really good odds.

As we talked before, Bayern is often looking out of sorts this season but that happens more often against week teams. I guess they get psyched up for big games and then their qoulity really shows. I am predicting 4:2 for Bayern tonight.

Boristhecat

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Quote from: buwaytress on April 23, 2022, 02:50:31 AM

There's also a Super Boost on Sportsbet -- United have never looked so poor, while Dortmund will be inspired to not let Bayern enjoy their title, so why not an Arsenal-BVB acca?
100 units on Arsenal and BVB to WIN @14.55. Other odds: 13.66
Units advantage: 89

Bookmakers quote the chances of Borussia to win as 7? Lol what? A bet on this outcome looks attractive in itself, you don’t even need to add a risky Arsenal. I wonder what caused such unfair odds for Dortmund on the part of the bookmakers - do they really think that compared to Bayern this is a team of the level of Arminia and has no chance? But this is not true.

Congratulations on your deposit recovery. Liverpool really made everyone happy.

buwaytress

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Sorry for the terrible behaviour from me, not updating this until a week later, but you know how it is...

Anyway, great Liverpool wins on both sides, I was confident we'd win, but was actually just as shocked at how easy it was. It was the second easiest game we've had this season, we did struggle a bit in second half is why it's not the easiest (5-0 Old Trafford 2nd half became a passing training).

Who's up for an old-fashioned City defeat?

100 units at Sportsbet on Watford to WIN vs Manchester City @23.00. Other odds: 20.24
Units advantage: 276

There's also a Super Boost on Sportsbet -- United have never looked so poor, while Dortmund will be inspired to not let Bayern enjoy their title, so why not an Arsenal-BVB acca?
100 units on Arsenal and BVB to WIN @14.55. Other odds: 13.66
Units advantage: 89

Running advantage after 129 bets: +13987 (+365)
All-time cumulative: +82,028
Running units after 127 bets (16W|111L): +1938 [+(243x5) +(199x5) = 1215+995 = 2210]

Also reflected -1000 units from bet of 10th April

buwaytress

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Hooray to all of us! The one thing I know Pep does is tinker, but I did NOT see the Ederson omission coming at all and that was the sole decision Pep will regret.

Good thing you didn't take handicap though, Trofo, huh. We really shouldn't have let them back in. Salah could have made it 4 twice, you can see he's desperate...

I'll update odds tally on Monday. Just travelling and really hard to access stuff on the move.

Trofo

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@buwa

So far everything according to the script for us

I hope you made it in time for kick off, it is not every day you dismantle this city squad. I am bit mad at myself for not taking handicap on LFC as well. Especially after seeing that Guardiola decided to rest Ederson in addition to all the fatigue and injuries. I don't remember when was the last time bookies botched the odds this badly on high profile game. Usually you can only see it in eSports or ITF tennis.

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on April 16, 2022, 03:37:02 AM

~
Thanks for your faith in me Trofo heh. I feel like I have lost my way.

I did do an acca also today involving Spurs, Chelsea tomorrow, Liverpool, and again Liverpool v United plus Villareal. Need to check again. 37/1 maybe or something? But that wont be posted here. Just my first long acca in maybe 2 weeks. That is how long I have been fasting from nonstop betting heh.

I don't think the path is lost. At the big odds you choose, the variance often produces very long losing streaks, which is normal. And the main problem is that you started to increase the amount of bets (I perfectly understand the reasons for this - it is psychologically difficult to sit in a long series of defeats and you want to "return" the money faster) this is a problem in the discipline of following the chosen strategy and not the fallacy of the strategy.

buwaytress

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This is a neutral venue. Wembley actually. Although I think both bosses actually asked for a closer venue but sponsors and what not and FA still want it Wembley.

Of course I have a big bet on Liverpool!

Now I do not have the access to post betslips so I will adjust the numbers and bet ID later. On a train and will arrive late to watch the game but let us see if I can rescue the negative bankroll with a not so big unit outlay.

500 units each on Liverpool HT and FT win. Fairlay is arounnd 3.4++ on HT last I checked and SB with a boost on FT win is 2.99. I would wait for a Super Boost on SB later today, get the double chance for maybe 1.65?

Thanks for your faith in me Trofo heh. I feel like I have lost my way.

I did do an acca also today involving Spurs, Chelsea tomorrow, Liverpool, and again Liverpool v United plus Villareal. Need to check again. 37/1 maybe or something? But that wont be posted here. Just my first long acca in maybe 2 weeks. That is how long I have been fasting from nonstop betting heh.

Trofo

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bump. Cmon man don't slack. I know you will play something on FA cup today. I feel like this game is best chance for Liverpool to win against City maybe in whole season. Liverpool rested their main guys against Benfica and had it easy while City used all their best players and fought every minute of the game. When I say fought it was quite literal sometimes and couple of City players got out due to injuries.

Immense value for LFC to win or even x2 is over 1.5 which is enough for my daily insured ticket.

You will know is this played on Etihhad or neutral venue? City is listed as home and I was lazy to check. If it is neutral ML is going on some ticket as well.

This game is my main reason why I did not gave you better odds in our bet. Since I feel like this one is for Liverpool to take.

Trofo

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Quote from: buwaytress on April 10, 2022, 06:18:08 AM

Right, this is not something anyone should do, but I'm having a torrid season as it stands, and have put all my eggs in one basket today.

So for this thread, I'll consider to use a big ML bet to either recover or end the season, and the odds anyway ARE good value for me.

Liverpool - City, what other game? City the favourites, rightly so. But Liverpool for the first time, match them in depth, and I'd say every attacker is on form, while Salah, who isn't loves turning up for the big games.

Half time now and LFC 2:1 down, if I am being honest I think red supporters can be very happy with this result. City had a couple of great chances, most notably the one from beginning of the match when Alisson managed to stop Sterling. Really don't know how he did not score that.

I am hoping for 2:2 final result. Having that in the pool and at 4:3 free promo. My both to score bet passed just how I like it best, inside first 20 min of the game so I can watch the rest happy

buwaytress

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Right, this is not something anyone should do, but I'm having a torrid season as it stands, and have put all my eggs in one basket today.

So for this thread, I'll consider to use a big ML bet to either recover or end the season, and the odds anyway ARE good value for me.

Liverpool - City, what other game? City the favourites, rightly so. But Liverpool for the first time, match them in depth, and I'd say every attacker is on form, while Salah, who isn't loves turning up for the big games.

Odds are incredible on Sportsbet, so take it (Super Boost) if you can. My bets are on Fairlay at decent odds as well

1000 units on Liverpool to WIN vs City @3.73. Other odds: 3.66
Units advantage: 70

Running advantage after 125 bets: +13622 (+70)
All-time cumulative: +82,028
Running units after 124 bets (14W|110L): +728 (-100)

buwaytress

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Quote from: KTChampions on April 06, 2022, 02:12:59 PM

Quote from: Trofo on April 06, 2022, 10:18:12 AM

Quote from: buwaytress on April 05, 2022, 01:45:10 PM

100 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool and Atletico to WIN @19.48. Other odds: 17.75

Atletico came and played like 6th division team. I get it you want to keep your net safe but when you have some quality in team you should at least try to be dangerous in counter attacks. Atletico wouldn't score yesterday even if game was played for 180 minutes, total anti-football and I for one will be very glad to see them on they way out from Europe.

But in fact, no one was surprised by such a strategy in the first leg and, in fact, Atlético achieved a good result before the second leg. I hate this kind of football (as well as its twin brother tiki taka) but sometimes it works. I think the second game will be more interesting as Atlético will be forced to try to score a goal but I'm sure even that they will do as carefully as possible.

Yeah, spiritually and mentally, I really can't stomach that kind of football, I did believe Atletico would nab a goal after frustrating City for so long. Can still admire them for that, as it takes all kinds of football to create the colourful tapestry we have but the last time someone ever tried that with Liverpool (Roy Hodgson comes to mind urgh) my soul died many times.

I'm definitely putting Atletico down again, still 10/1 at home. All they need to do is annoy City and Pep so much they make a mistake. Whatever happens though, they meet Real if they somehow go through and that's a team who knows exactly how to deal with Simeone.

KTChampions

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Quote from: Trofo on April 06, 2022, 10:18:12 AM

Quote from: buwaytress on April 05, 2022, 01:45:10 PM

100 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool and Atletico to WIN @19.48. Other odds: 17.75

Atletico came and played like 6th division team. I get it you want to keep your net safe but when you have some quality in team you should at least try to be dangerous in counter attacks. Atletico wouldn't score yesterday even if game was played for 180 minutes, total anti-football and I for one will be very glad to see them on they way out from Europe.

But in fact, no one was surprised by such a strategy in the first leg and, in fact, Atlético achieved a good result before the second leg. I hate this kind of football (as well as its twin brother tiki taka) but sometimes it works. I think the second game will be more interesting as Atlético will be forced to try to score a goal but I'm sure even that they will do as carefully as possible.

Trofo

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Quote from: buwaytress on April 05, 2022, 01:45:10 PM

100 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool and Atletico to WIN @19.48. Other odds: 17.75

Atletico came and played like 6th division team. I get it you want to keep your net safe but when you have some quality in team you should at least try to be dangerous in counter attacks. Atletico wouldn't score yesterday even if game was played for 180 minutes, total anti-football and I for one will be very glad to see them on they way out from Europe.

buwaytress

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No joy, but maybe Champions League to save my ass on a bad, bad run? One can hope Atletico take their game up, and Liverpool, well, if they don't win, it's a pointless bet to me Wink

So it goes, our last-ditch parlay, with a Super Boost on Atletico alone @13.72 and Liverpool @1.42

100 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool and Atletico to WIN @19.48. Other odds: 17.75
Units advantage: 173

Running advantage after 124 bets: +13552 (+173)
All-time cumulative: +81,958
Running units after 123 bets (14W|109L): +828 (-200)

buwaytress

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Good call on BTTS as usual Trofo, I had Portugal to win and also BTTS on separate accas but both failed anyway thanks to South Korea and Morocco scoring too many.

Anyway, 2 bets today, simple guy going against both Manchester teams:

100 units at Sportsbet on Burnely to win vs City @15.4. Other odds: 14.5
100 units at Sportsbet on Leicester to win vs United @6.50. Other odds: 5.9

Units advantage: 150

Running advantage after 123 bets: +13379 (+150)
All-time cumulative: +81,785
Running units after 121 bets (14W|107L): +1028 (-100)

Trofo

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Quote from: buwaytress on March 24, 2022, 11:05:13 AM

Right. I dread internationals but Turkey I feel have a good chance to upend Portugal, especially if I can count on them insisting to play Ronaldo who, still a brilliant poacher, I'm hoping will actually stunt his national team.

Whatever the outcome, hoping it's all out attack. Last World Cup for Ronaldo and Yilmaz, they have to win this playoff!

I was thinking this match will be a boring 1:0 for Portugal but after doing my research today I lean towards the goals as well. Portugal is missing Cancelo, Dias and Pepe. In other words 3/4 first choices in defense are not available, there will be some debuts for Portugal in their back line. Knowing that both teams have to go for goals no matter the stake.

My bet is on both to score @2.0. Really high odds when team news are added to calculation. I sort of feel bookies gave us a freebie here since their algorithm takes past results in account much more than current form/injuries.

buwaytress

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Right. I dread internationals but Turkey I feel have a good chance to upend Portugal, especially if I can count on them insisting to play Ronaldo who, still a brilliant poacher, I'm hoping will actually stunt his national team.

Whatever the outcome, hoping it's all out attack. Last World Cup for Ronaldo and Yilmaz, they have to win this playoff!

100 units at Sportsbet on Turkey to WIN vs Portugal @9.06. Other odds: 8.33
Units advantage: 73

Running advantage after 121 bets: +13229 (+73)
All-time cumulative: +81,635
Running units after 120 bets (14W|106L): +1128 (-200)

buwaytress

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Quote from: Trofo on March 19, 2022, 12:07:38 PM

Quote from: buwaytress on March 19, 2022, 12:02:29 PM

Trofo man, any tips for who drops points tonight? I already put in my traditional bets but for small money, and they are both my picks for today in here. But I already lost my day's acca on Alaves (haha) -- I've been doing really "well" these last couple of weeks getting insurance on accas almost every day, but I'm well aware that's poor performance as I should have hit at least one to make up for it. So thinking of what sweet spot to look at. Southampton could actually be golden, but odds aren't even fair for them. Nevertheless!

No way Union Berlin score first at keep clean sheet first half, and no way City concede and can't score when they got Liverpool breathing down their necks, right? Wink

100 units at Fairlay on Union Berlin to WIN at HT vs Bayern Munich @12.51. Other odds: 11.80

100 units at Sportsbet on Saints to WIN vs City @10.02. Other odds: 9.30

Units advantage: 71+72=143

Running advantage after 120 bets: +13156 (+143)
All-time cumulative: +81,562
Running units after 118 bets (14W|104L): +1328 (-100)

City is playing Fa cup so they don't really care about LFC tonight. I hate playing cup games since they tend to finish with draws way to often. Maybe just my feeling.

I am on tennis today since football does not look like value. Check my last couple of posts in tennis thread for details but I am favoring Alcaraz tonight. Against a guy who did not loose this season. Crazy, right?

Not when it comes to you. Thanks. Am going to hrow my hat in later today on that. Need to get my 'crazy bet' fix today and Union already forgot to show up.

Trofo

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Quote from: buwaytress on March 19, 2022, 12:02:29 PM

Trofo man, any tips for who drops points tonight? I already put in my traditional bets but for small money, and they are both my picks for today in here. But I already lost my day's acca on Alaves (haha) -- I've been doing really "well" these last couple of weeks getting insurance on accas almost every day, but I'm well aware that's poor performance as I should have hit at least one to make up for it. So thinking of what sweet spot to look at. Southampton could actually be golden, but odds aren't even fair for them. Nevertheless!

No way Union Berlin score first at keep clean sheet first half, and no way City concede and can't score when they got Liverpool breathing down their necks, right? Wink

100 units at Fairlay on Union Berlin to WIN at HT vs Bayern Munich @12.51. Other odds: 11.80

100 units at Sportsbet on Saints to WIN vs City @10.02. Other odds: 9.30

Units advantage: 71+72=143

Running advantage after 120 bets: +13156 (+143)
All-time cumulative: +81,562
Running units after 118 bets (14W|104L): +1328 (-100)

City is playing Fa cup so they don't really care about LFC tonight. I hate playing cup games since they tend to finish with draws way to often. Maybe just my feeling.

I am on tennis today since football does not look like value. Check my last couple of posts in tennis thread for details but I am favoring Alcaraz tonight. Against a guy who did not loose this season. Crazy, right?

buwaytress

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Trofo man, any tips for who drops points tonight? I already put in my traditional bets but for small money, and they are both my picks for today in here. But I already lost my day's acca on Alaves (haha) -- I've been doing really "well" these last couple of weeks getting insurance on accas almost every day, but I'm well aware that's poor performance as I should have hit at least one to make up for it. So thinking of what sweet spot to look at. Southampton could actually be golden, but odds aren't even fair for them. Nevertheless!

No way Union Berlin score first at keep clean sheet first half, and no way City concede and can't score when they got Liverpool breathing down their necks, right? Wink

100 units at Fairlay on Union Berlin to WIN at HT vs Bayern Munich @12.51. Other odds: 11.80

100 units at Sportsbet on Saints to WIN vs City @10.02. Other odds: 9.30

Units advantage: 71+72=143

Running advantage after 120 bets: +13156 (+143)
All-time cumulative: +81,562
Running units after 118 bets (14W|104L): +1328 (-100)

Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 15. (Read 40042 times)