Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 18. (Read 40042 times)

Could it be that Manchester City will finally loss against Brentford Boss ?
I followed your tips for Leicester City to triumph but they couldn't get a complete come back.
The odds are tempting .

Also for Southampton to win over Tottenham at home.
What's you view about this?
@buwaytress.

Boxing Day! And I've got 3 great picks all bursting with value, so if I just hit one I'll be a happy gambler.

First off, Leicester to beat City as my traditional "bet against City game" and at almost 17/1, I think this is hands-on my Christmas special
Then, Villa is 5/1 against Chelsea, I'll put them on a small acca with SIPG in China to take a home win.
Finally, Conte is whining too much, so I'm going to give Vieira a win against them, parlayed with what should be a strong Hammers showing at home.
All at Sportsber:

100 units on Leicester City to WIN vs Man City @16.95. Other odds: 16.00. Bet ID: 61c34907d1d9a74bc1bedcab
100 units on Villa and SIPG to WIN @7.75. Other odds: 7.60. Bet ID: 61c84378184fc493fbe5e2c0
100 units on Palace and West Ham to WIN @9.54. Other odds: 9.40. Bet ID: 61c84390184fc48523e5e2d9

Total units advantage: 95+15+14 = 124



Just go ahead and do it! No pressure, open a thread, just try and post as often as you can, the discipline will come later with routine (and you can see this last few weeks I've been inactive but it's okay!)

At the end of every season, I do make a final count and add it to the first post (on page 1), linking to the post for reference. I'm quite happy to be in positive for the first 3 seasons but I have a feeling I might end up negative this one partially due to my inactiveness but also missing a lot of upsets.

Understand you, I also use several devices, but prefer to write from one. And i want to start a similar experiment, but I am experiencing same problems with free time and partly with discipline 
I am still pondering the predictive accuracy of the closing line and is it possible to make money on it
By the way, I think if at the end of the season you, in addition to public statistics, announce the total statistics of your bets (without numbers, just percentages), I think it will delight all readers of this thread.

@KTChampions: It's just been a really difficult time this end of year yeah, my schedule is somewhat disrupted and I can access this forum no problem, but to update this thread, I much prefer to be on my regular device, able to shift properly between windows and compare books without rushing, so yeah, I still make my bets, but just don't really have the comfortable access to make the necessary comparisons and put it here. I've actually on occasion dumped a bet in here without bet IDs or even odd comparisons from my phone, but I try not to make that a habit.

@Trofo: Honestly, you were really unlucky there. I only chose Real because Benzema was still of all the games last night, the one the bookies thought likeliest to score (these days it's Salah and Benzema and Ronaldo when they're listed on squad, such are their form right now). But it's like we just keep jinxing each other huh!

And about West Ham, well, too bad they fell behind to early Spurs goal too. I was of course watching Liverpool B snatch an incredible penalty win against Leicester (I honestly thought we were going to lose 5-0 or something after Vardy's second goal).

Really appreciate you both following this thread

I like the Cup games in Portugal tonight, would have taken all 3 but they also happen to be a boosted special on Sportsbet, no harm throwing a few dollars at it, right?

100 units on Rio Ave, Braga, Porto to WIN @8.80. Other odds: 7.98
Units advantage: 82

 
1-2 already. It looks like the teams are set for a productive match, I wonder if Real Madrid will be able to create a comfortable reserve of goals before it's time to make substitutions. Real Madrid have practically no adequate substitutions, Athletic must increase the pace and try to win in physics.

And then Benzema scores two goals in first seven minutes of the game and I feel like a fool for taking an informed approach and skipping the bet. Had to happen that way after I wrote about it

Thanks for the information, I have not heard about this and therefore I was surprised by the unexpectedly pleasant odds on Real 
However, in my opinion, the coefficient compensates for the risk in this case, for a multi-bet it is a good option. It is better to take a risk for a good profit than to make “correct” bets of 1.3-1.4 and then find out that the favorite could not score a goal and the entire multi-bet collapsed.

Why on Real today mate? As I was writing in our La Liga pool topic Real will be missing 11 players today. They still have good first 11 but this one is a skip for sure. Just not worth taking the risk in my opinion.

I have West Ham pegged as a draw, and I believe this is first time in months I actually put a draw on the ticket. Never play draws since I can't cheer properly for outcome but decided to go for it on 10 legged multi. Not gonna come anyway, it is just for fun.

Glad to see you back. By the way, you don't have time just to run this thread or even to place bets (in the sense, do you place bets without publishing here)?
And in my opinion, your today's rate has a good chance of winning, firstly, the odds are not so big (not 20 at least  ), and secondly, you haven't won for a long time, as I see, it's time for luck to smile at you.

I know, I know. It's like I don't have time anymore for this thread, but let's see if I can boot up my bad year with a simple 2-legged affair tonight. Real Madrid can widen the gap at the top, and they should, while West Ham have already taken out two big teams in the EFL cup, why not Spurs?

100 units at Sportsbet on West Ham and Real Madrid to WIN @8.50. Other odds: 8.28
Bet ID: 61c348da62470925b0e3a3cf
Units advantage: 22

Not a desired result but the win wasn't great either for the home team. Today, a traditional "bet City" bet looks promising. Leeds almost did it against Chelsea, and City needed a penalty against Wolves, so I'm liking the odds.

100 units at Sportsbet on Leeds to WIN vs Man City @18.60. Other odds: 18.00
Units advantage: 60

Leeds actually took the lead, and Chelsea needed TWO penalties to make it out of this alive. That's 3 games in a row now they've let in more than goal when they had the stingiest defence in all of England. Boat's a-rocking, Tuchel -D

Anyway, @dittoup has a massive pick which I'm absolutely following in Scandi football. A rare handicap pick but I can't ignore over 20/1 odds for the final game of the season for Sarpsborg to just finish this Eliteserien season on a high.

100 units at Sportsbet on Sarpsborg (1:0) to WIN against Brann @20.80. Other odds: 20.
Units advantage: 80

Terrible of me not to have updated here in a while but it's been a really difficult period of being busy with work and not really having time to hunt  for good odds. Wolves against City would have been my pick but the game's already underway 0-0 at HT with Wolves a man down from their biggest goal threat being sent off (ouch).

No time to add a betslip here but my pick today is Leeds to take advantage of Chelsea shakiness in defence.

100 units at Sportsbet on Leeds to WIN vs Chelsea @11.30. Other odds: 10.80
Units advantage: 50

I seem to be lazy these days! Anyway, United. Chelsea fought back to draw, probably deserved to win if you saw the stats, but really, they didn't trouble Chelsea as much as it would have suggested on paper.

Anyway, today, we go for a nice special at Sportsbet on favourites (yuck but hey):
100 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool, City, Inter, Barca, Atletico to WIN @7.00. Other odds: 6.66
Bet ID: 61ab2171d1d9a705a6a7f976
Units advantage: 34

And our traditional City bet today gets good value at Stake (where if Watford scores first in a game, they get paid out no matter the final whistle outcome). I took this WAY early but the odds are 14+ now...

100 units at Stake on Watford to score first @12.00. Odds comparison: 5.80
Units advantage: 620

Absolutely right man. I should learn to stick to my guns. Which brings us to United today. They got rid of Ole and maybe that's enough. Tuchel and his gang are the ones under pressure and they are way too good to not try and knock about today.

200 units at Sportsbet on United to WIN vs Chelsea @6.64 is absolute value for me. Other odds: 6.00

That is ok then. Must admit I am not so much interested in math behind your results. I am here for banter and checking the tips.

We have very different betting strategies when you keep to your strong point, big odds single game tickets. When I see you take a punt on the outsider it just makes that game a bit more likely to end up on my ticket as both to score. It is sort of a way for me to double check some trickier games with better odds.

Yes, but as you see in my entire thread, I never count my stake back as profit. So anything I end up putting my freebet on the next day gets counted in the tally (if I lose the freebet, I deduct the points on following day, if I win, the stake is never counted in the profit). Profit and loss here on my thread is all net =)

Not to mention I never do anything less than 2/1 haha, and with freebets especially, you want to put it on acca in case of void (where you lose the bet if it's a single).

But I believe you man, I avoided Spurs like the plague, but I thought Conte would at least get them a draw so didn't do Mura shame on me.

I'm about to get Gent'ed by Gent though, 3 legs done on today's 5-leg acca and Gent down by a goal ha ha ha...

That is not exactly true isn't it? I am counting those insurance free bets like I got 50% of my stake back since you have to put it on odds @2 to actually get your stake back.

Believe it or not my ticket today got busted on fuc***** Spurs. I needed 6th game on my multi in local bookie and took Spurs @1.15 as sure thing just to finish the ticket. All other 5 games had odds around 1.8. Hope at least you had something on Mura, odds were just up your alley

No. If I do 200 units then the advantage is multiplied by two, you can search back posts where I put bets like these, and the advantage is doubled, but you're right I actually didn't multiply the Juventus unit advantage, I guess I could edit but I usually only edit back when I miscalculated profit/loss as that's pretty crucial heh. And the units advantage is probably not as important.

Also, the losing bet is deducted only on the next day, so you'll see 200 units deducted on today's pick, from last night's loss. The Juventus loss (also 200 units) was deducted from yesterday's post. This way I don't edit my old posts unnecessary =)


I have put specials in here in the past, you just have to look them up. Specials from Stake, Fortunejack and Sportsbet get coverage here for sure because of value, but I tend to put the ones I'd pick as a normal bet anyway.

The 5-leg free insurance boost gets featured a lot, as it did today, since the value alone from price often beats everyone else, and then you get free insurance. When I've won insurance on these, I simply count it as a loss but don't deduct anything from the next day's balance (As you get stake back as freebet).

OK thank you so even when you place a bet of 200 units you compute the units advantage for 100 units. And you count a bet of 100 units and not 200 for your Running advantage and your All-time cumulative advantage, if I'm right. But what about your Running units?
For this one, you've bet 200 units, it lost and only 100 units had been subtracted while on the bet above 200 units had been removed.

I didn't see daily special bets from sportsbet.io in your picks, you don't think they are enough profitable? When I try to compare them with combined odds from Stake I often (not always) find rather interesting advantages.