Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 18. (Read 39960 times)

Understand you, I also use several devices, but prefer to write from one. And i want to start a similar experiment, but I am experiencing same problems with free time and partly with discipline 
I am still pondering the predictive accuracy of the closing line and is it possible to make money on it
By the way, I think if at the end of the season you, in addition to public statistics, announce the total statistics of your bets (without numbers, just percentages), I think it will delight all readers of this thread.

@KTChampions: It's just been a really difficult time this end of year yeah, my schedule is somewhat disrupted and I can access this forum no problem, but to update this thread, I much prefer to be on my regular device, able to shift properly between windows and compare books without rushing, so yeah, I still make my bets, but just don't really have the comfortable access to make the necessary comparisons and put it here. I've actually on occasion dumped a bet in here without bet IDs or even odd comparisons from my phone, but I try not to make that a habit.

@Trofo: Honestly, you were really unlucky there. I only chose Real because Benzema was still of all the games last night, the one the bookies thought likeliest to score (these days it's Salah and Benzema and Ronaldo when they're listed on squad, such are their form right now). But it's like we just keep jinxing each other huh!

And about West Ham, well, too bad they fell behind to early Spurs goal too. I was of course watching Liverpool B snatch an incredible penalty win against Leicester (I honestly thought we were going to lose 5-0 or something after Vardy's second goal).

Really appreciate you both following this thread

I like the Cup games in Portugal tonight, would have taken all 3 but they also happen to be a boosted special on Sportsbet, no harm throwing a few dollars at it, right?

100 units on Rio Ave, Braga, Porto to WIN @8.80. Other odds: 7.98
Units advantage: 82

 
1-2 already. It looks like the teams are set for a productive match, I wonder if Real Madrid will be able to create a comfortable reserve of goals before it's time to make substitutions. Real Madrid have practically no adequate substitutions, Athletic must increase the pace and try to win in physics.

And then Benzema scores two goals in first seven minutes of the game and I feel like a fool for taking an informed approach and skipping the bet. Had to happen that way after I wrote about it

Thanks for the information, I have not heard about this and therefore I was surprised by the unexpectedly pleasant odds on Real 
However, in my opinion, the coefficient compensates for the risk in this case, for a multi-bet it is a good option. It is better to take a risk for a good profit than to make “correct” bets of 1.3-1.4 and then find out that the favorite could not score a goal and the entire multi-bet collapsed.

Why on Real today mate? As I was writing in our La Liga pool topic Real will be missing 11 players today. They still have good first 11 but this one is a skip for sure. Just not worth taking the risk in my opinion.

I have West Ham pegged as a draw, and I believe this is first time in months I actually put a draw on the ticket. Never play draws since I can't cheer properly for outcome but decided to go for it on 10 legged multi. Not gonna come anyway, it is just for fun.

Glad to see you back. By the way, you don't have time just to run this thread or even to place bets (in the sense, do you place bets without publishing here)?
And in my opinion, your today's rate has a good chance of winning, firstly, the odds are not so big (not 20 at least  ), and secondly, you haven't won for a long time, as I see, it's time for luck to smile at you.

I know, I know. It's like I don't have time anymore for this thread, but let's see if I can boot up my bad year with a simple 2-legged affair tonight. Real Madrid can widen the gap at the top, and they should, while West Ham have already taken out two big teams in the EFL cup, why not Spurs?

100 units at Sportsbet on West Ham and Real Madrid to WIN @8.50. Other odds: 8.28
Bet ID: 61c348da62470925b0e3a3cf
Units advantage: 22

Not a desired result but the win wasn't great either for the home team. Today, a traditional "bet City" bet looks promising. Leeds almost did it against Chelsea, and City needed a penalty against Wolves, so I'm liking the odds.

100 units at Sportsbet on Leeds to WIN vs Man City @18.60. Other odds: 18.00
Units advantage: 60

Leeds actually took the lead, and Chelsea needed TWO penalties to make it out of this alive. That's 3 games in a row now they've let in more than goal when they had the stingiest defence in all of England. Boat's a-rocking, Tuchel -D

Anyway, @dittoup has a massive pick which I'm absolutely following in Scandi football. A rare handicap pick but I can't ignore over 20/1 odds for the final game of the season for Sarpsborg to just finish this Eliteserien season on a high.

100 units at Sportsbet on Sarpsborg (1:0) to WIN against Brann @20.80. Other odds: 20.
Units advantage: 80

Terrible of me not to have updated here in a while but it's been a really difficult period of being busy with work and not really having time to hunt  for good odds. Wolves against City would have been my pick but the game's already underway 0-0 at HT with Wolves a man down from their biggest goal threat being sent off (ouch).

No time to add a betslip here but my pick today is Leeds to take advantage of Chelsea shakiness in defence.

100 units at Sportsbet on Leeds to WIN vs Chelsea @11.30. Other odds: 10.80
Units advantage: 50

I seem to be lazy these days! Anyway, United. Chelsea fought back to draw, probably deserved to win if you saw the stats, but really, they didn't trouble Chelsea as much as it would have suggested on paper.

Anyway, today, we go for a nice special at Sportsbet on favourites (yuck but hey):
100 units at Sportsbet on Liverpool, City, Inter, Barca, Atletico to WIN @7.00. Other odds: 6.66
Bet ID: 61ab2171d1d9a705a6a7f976
Units advantage: 34

And our traditional City bet today gets good value at Stake (where if Watford scores first in a game, they get paid out no matter the final whistle outcome). I took this WAY early but the odds are 14+ now...

100 units at Stake on Watford to score first @12.00. Odds comparison: 5.80
Units advantage: 620

Absolutely right man. I should learn to stick to my guns. Which brings us to United today. They got rid of Ole and maybe that's enough. Tuchel and his gang are the ones under pressure and they are way too good to not try and knock about today.

200 units at Sportsbet on United to WIN vs Chelsea @6.64 is absolute value for me. Other odds: 6.00

That is ok then. Must admit I am not so much interested in math behind your results. I am here for banter and checking the tips.

We have very different betting strategies when you keep to your strong point, big odds single game tickets. When I see you take a punt on the outsider it just makes that game a bit more likely to end up on my ticket as both to score. It is sort of a way for me to double check some trickier games with better odds.

Yes, but as you see in my entire thread, I never count my stake back as profit. So anything I end up putting my freebet on the next day gets counted in the tally (if I lose the freebet, I deduct the points on following day, if I win, the stake is never counted in the profit). Profit and loss here on my thread is all net =)

Not to mention I never do anything less than 2/1 haha, and with freebets especially, you want to put it on acca in case of void (where you lose the bet if it's a single).

But I believe you man, I avoided Spurs like the plague, but I thought Conte would at least get them a draw so didn't do Mura shame on me.

I'm about to get Gent'ed by Gent though, 3 legs done on today's 5-leg acca and Gent down by a goal ha ha ha...

That is not exactly true isn't it? I am counting those insurance free bets like I got 50% of my stake back since you have to put it on odds @2 to actually get your stake back.

Believe it or not my ticket today got busted on fuc***** Spurs. I needed 6th game on my multi in local bookie and took Spurs @1.15 as sure thing just to finish the ticket. All other 5 games had odds around 1.8. Hope at least you had something on Mura, odds were just up your alley

No. If I do 200 units then the advantage is multiplied by two, you can search back posts where I put bets like these, and the advantage is doubled, but you're right I actually didn't multiply the Juventus unit advantage, I guess I could edit but I usually only edit back when I miscalculated profit/loss as that's pretty crucial heh. And the units advantage is probably not as important.

Also, the losing bet is deducted only on the next day, so you'll see 200 units deducted on today's pick, from last night's loss. The Juventus loss (also 200 units) was deducted from yesterday's post. This way I don't edit my old posts unnecessary =)


I have put specials in here in the past, you just have to look them up. Specials from Stake, Fortunejack and Sportsbet get coverage here for sure because of value, but I tend to put the ones I'd pick as a normal bet anyway.

The 5-leg free insurance boost gets featured a lot, as it did today, since the value alone from price often beats everyone else, and then you get free insurance. When I've won insurance on these, I simply count it as a loss but don't deduct anything from the next day's balance (As you get stake back as freebet).

OK thank you so even when you place a bet of 200 units you compute the units advantage for 100 units. And you count a bet of 100 units and not 200 for your Running advantage and your All-time cumulative advantage, if I'm right. But what about your Running units?
For this one, you've bet 200 units, it lost and only 100 units had been subtracted while on the bet above 200 units had been removed.

I didn't see daily special bets from sportsbet.io in your picks, you don't think they are enough profitable? When I try to compare them with combined odds from Stake I often (not always) find rather interesting advantages.

Right, no luck with PSG either, and to be fair, they weren't doing much and got outplayed by City. Deserved to lose.

Been a while since I put a multi but I'm going to do a bit of a switcheroo and pick 5 favourites to sit back for a nice boost and insurance, which you get daily at Sportsbet. Europa and Conference maybe can gift us a lifeline?

100 units boosted, insured, at Sportsbet on Lazio, West Ham, Basel, Gent and Colorado Rapids to WIN @16.00. Other odds: 15.43
Units advantage: 57
Bet ID: 619f2bf0d1d9a793f19c30bc

Running advantage after 81 bets: +9580 (+57)
All-time cumulative: +76,948
Running units after 80 bets (11W|69L): +3521 (-200)


No problem and thanks for your question! I do a base bet of 100 units (but on occasion, like the past two nights, 200 or sometimes I go even 500). So using my odds system, to 2 decimals, if you place 100 units on today's pick, you win 1600. If you'd placed it elsewhere ("other odds" is the next best I can find), you'd get only 1543 if you win.

Since this thread is all about value and choosing the book with the best one, the advantage here in units is +57

That's all there is to is =)

I'm sorry if you've already explained it buwaytress but I didn't find it in the OP and your first posts, neither in your last ones when you gave some detailed explanations to KTChampions.
How your "Units advantage" is calculated precisely please? I don't get it.
You subtract the lowest odds multiplied by your stake from the highest ones and then substract the vig from it. That's it? But how do you get the vig on fairlay?
Thank you very much for this thread.