Maybe, maybe not. Keep in mind that chip sales will slow if they don't ship on a reasonable time frame. Moreover, its very hard to calculate the Net present value of these chips over the next few months, let alone years as there is no telling where difficulty will be. Keep in mind that BFL is also offering chips now, you know of KNC miner, and there will be more outfits to arise in the near future as well.
I think the safe and smart move for Avalon is to ship ASAP; most businesses would agree also. The possible reward with holding and using chips is very high, but so is the risk factor....I can't really put a number on it due to the amount of unknowns in the equation, but neither can you...and neither can Avalon...so the best move is to take money in the hand.
why is it a safe and smart move for avalon to ship the chips asap? they already took your btc, why would they ship asap? they will try to delay it as long as they could. Bfl, avalon, and knc(if it's even real) are all playing a game of chicken trying to delay as much as they can. Asic miner is playing a different game by charging such a high price that barely breaks even for the suckers who buy their hardware but at least they are not lying about shipping the hardware.
Everyone wants to buy cheap hardware and hoping for a return in a few months, avalon & bfl are not stupid they are using exactly this mass hysteria and greed to sell seemingly unbelievable cheap hardware, of course it's another story to actually get them to ship it. I can guaranteed there will not be massive shipment of anything asic from those companies, they will ship maybe 1-2 orders then delay another month or two to ship 1 more order etc..to have the appearance of trying and keep the mobs at bay.
There is no free lunch, only way to have those kind of returns is to create your own asic chips with a 500k min investment, but then once you have them YOU YOURSELF will be playing the exact same game as those guys trying not to ship it to the masses after taking their money.
My $10k bet on terrahash is 1) terrahash is one of the lucky ones to receive a chip shipment from avalon 2) keep to their word like they are trying so hard right now to appear legit, and actually ship the hardware after getting the chips, not mining in some warehouse first for a few months citing technical challenges - the temptation is undeniable - if you can have a 5 figure income per day mining using those hardware would you make up some bullshit excuse and pocket the coins instead?
I have been trading risky equities, options+futures and fx all my life both professionally and as a hobby, never seen a market with so much bullshit and scam yet at the same time so many people willing to part with their hard earned money over blind faith. Hell vegas seemed tame by comparison.