Official Bitcoin Price Prediction for Dec 31, 2014 - page 9.

BitchicksHusband

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Quote from: skivrmt on January 04, 2014, 04:48:50 PM

Quote from: mskryxz on January 04, 2014, 03:13:00 PM

Quote from: Dragonkiller on January 04, 2014, 03:05:17 PM

it's going to be $2k by the end of this month

possibly

i was thinking 1500 end of jan/feb

maybe 2000 by july
and 3k by december

or 2-3k factoring crashes/fud/hypes

for example, if the W Twins fund doesn't get approved, i doubt it will go over 3k. but if it does then yeah definitely much higher. it's just that from research it takes 18+ months to approve and the chances are are strict with the sec

That part is a bit concerning and doesn't get talked about much. W Twins filed with the SEC for their ETF back in June. And it's been eerily quiet on all fronts, W Twins, SEC, etc. You would think someone would provide an update. ETF funds usually don't take this long for initially approval. If their fund gets approved I think we'll see a really nice pop in the price.

ETF funds average 12-18 months to get approved, although some have been as quick as 5-6 months. Given that bitcoin is completely new to the SEC, it will probably not be on the low side.

skivrmt

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Quote from: mskryxz on January 04, 2014, 05:19:15 PM

Quote from: skivrmt on January 04, 2014, 04:48:50 PM

Quote from: mskryxz on January 04, 2014, 03:13:00 PM

Quote from: Dragonkiller on January 04, 2014, 03:05:17 PM

it's going to be $2k by the end of this month

possibly

i was thinking 1500 end of jan/feb

maybe 2000 by july
and 3k by december

or 2-3k factoring crashes/fud/hypes

for example, if the W Twins fund doesn't get approved, i doubt it will go over 3k. but if it does then yeah definitely much higher. it's just that from research it takes 18+ months to approve and the chances are are strict with the sec

That part is a bit concerning and doesn't get talked about much. W Twins filed with the SEC for their ETF back in June. And it's been eerily quiet on all fronts, W Twins, SEC, etc. You would think someone would provide an update. ETF funds usually don't take this long for initially approval. If their fund gets approved I think we'll see a really nice pop in the price.

If it gets approved this June (or 1 year since filing) what do you suppose the price will be in June of 2014?

It depends. I've only skimmed the actually SEC filing. How is the ETF fund going to be initially funded? Is it open ended or closed ended? Huge difference. Are they selling their own Bitcoins, Bitcoins of other investors or are they buying on the open market? My initial guess would be a combo of the first two, selling own investments and other early investors in Bitcoin.

If they sell from an existing supply, the $60MM or so of the fund won't be a fundamental pop, it would be an emotional pop. My quote of a really nice pop is simply from easy access to the mainstream investor of an emotional pop.

mskryxz

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Quote from: skivrmt on January 04, 2014, 04:48:50 PM

Quote from: mskryxz on January 04, 2014, 03:13:00 PM

Quote from: Dragonkiller on January 04, 2014, 03:05:17 PM

it's going to be $2k by the end of this month

possibly

i was thinking 1500 end of jan/feb

maybe 2000 by july
and 3k by december

or 2-3k factoring crashes/fud/hypes

for example, if the W Twins fund doesn't get approved, i doubt it will go over 3k. but if it does then yeah definitely much higher. it's just that from research it takes 18+ months to approve and the chances are are strict with the sec

That part is a bit concerning and doesn't get talked about much. W Twins filed with the SEC for their ETF back in June. And it's been eerily quiet on all fronts, W Twins, SEC, etc. You would think someone would provide an update. ETF funds usually don't take this long for initially approval. If their fund gets approved I think we'll see a really nice pop in the price.

If it gets approved this June (or 1 year since filing) what do you suppose the price will be in June of 2014?

skivrmt

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Quote from: mskryxz on January 04, 2014, 03:13:00 PM

Quote from: Dragonkiller on January 04, 2014, 03:05:17 PM

it's going to be $2k by the end of this month

possibly

i was thinking 1500 end of jan/feb

maybe 2000 by july
and 3k by december

or 2-3k factoring crashes/fud/hypes

for example, if the W Twins fund doesn't get approved, i doubt it will go over 3k. but if it does then yeah definitely much higher. it's just that from research it takes 18+ months to approve and the chances are are strict with the sec

That part is a bit concerning and doesn't get talked about much. W Twins filed with the SEC for their ETF back in June. And it's been eerily quiet on all fronts, W Twins, SEC, etc. You would think someone would provide an update. ETF funds usually don't take this long for initially approval. If their fund gets approved I think we'll see a really nice pop in the price.

mskryxz

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Activity: 433

Merit: 250

Quote from: Dragonkiller on January 04, 2014, 03:05:17 PM

it's going to be $2k by the end of this month

possibly

i was thinking 1500 end of jan/feb

maybe 2000 by july
and 3k by december

or 2-3k factoring crashes/fud/hypes

for example, if the W Twins fund doesn't get approved, i doubt it will go over 3k. but if it does then yeah definitely much higher. it's just that from research it takes 18+ months to approve and the chances are are strict with the sec

Dragonkiller

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Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Available Now!

it's going to be $2k by the end of this month

mskryxz

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just quick statistics based on 151 votes

139 - 92% of respondents believe it will be at least $2,000 by december

if we're to go by the majority, it looks like entering the bitcoin market at under $2,000 is a REASONABLE RISK if we believe it will be at least $2k by the end of the year.

mskryxz

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Merit: 250

I love the turn out of votes

already 151 votes submitted.

I'll keep this thread alive and post again come Dec 31, 2014

skivrmt

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Quote from: Wilhelm on January 04, 2014, 10:24:22 AM

Looking at the poll you can already see 4 groups of people Grin

Pessimists <$50
Missed the boaters $100-$500
Realists $3000-$7500
Optimists/Hodlers >$10000

Am I a pessimistic realist then? Wink

I voted for $2k. It's funny in real life I'm actually an optimistic realist. It's amazing what people expect from Bitcoin, I love it. I mean I voted for a 130% gain in ONE YEAR and I'm not even a realist!

JimboToronto

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You're never too old to think young.

Quote from: Wilhelm on January 04, 2014, 10:24:22 AM

Looking at the poll you can already see 4 groups of people Grin

Pessimists <$50
Missed the boaters $100-$500
Realists $3000-$7500
Optimists/Hodlers >$10000

It's nice to see you consider me a realist, although I consider myself a holder (hoadrer).

pietje

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Quote from: Wilhelm on January 04, 2014, 10:24:22 AM

Looking at the poll you can already see 4 groups of people Grin

Pessimists <$50
Missed the boaters $100-$500
Realists $3000-$7500
Optimists/Hodlers >$10000

I wonder how the poll was last year. Guess everyone who predicted the price for around 800 would be declared a fool, but look at us now.

So if we reach 10k next year it will be only x12 instead of x50 like last year, although i dont think we can expect another x50.

Wilhelm

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Looking at the poll you can already see 4 groups of people Grin

Pessimists <$50
Missed the boaters $100-$500
Realists $3000-$7500
Optimists/Hodlers >$10000

skivrmt

hero member

Activity: 994

Merit: 501

Quote from: mskryxz on January 03, 2014, 12:54:50 PM

Also,

can write it as a loss right for taxes?

Can you write a betting loss for taxes? Generally its a no unless you having a betting gain to offset it (simplified answer). Unless of course you file as a professional gambler then you can write you gains/losses off.

pietje

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I really think we can hit 10k, although it will depend a bit on the wallstreet/overstock news.
So far it is looking good

BitchicksHusband

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Quote from: skivrmt on January 03, 2014, 12:35:53 PM

I think $10k would be a bit too high. Yes, we've grown more than that up until this point, but it always becomes a questions of market capitalization. The amount of new capital that needs to flow into XBT from $1 to $100 was -relatively- small. $100 to $1000 was about ~9B. $1000 to $10000 would be ~$100B in NEW capital. I'm not saying we can't do it, just that it's rather unlikly.

I notice 10k or more seems to have the most votes so far. For those that think so, put your money where your mouth (vote) is! You get decent odds right now:

http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/

I bet no. Even if I'm wrong I kinda still win... Grin

I'm pretty sure I'm betting by having a large portion of my savings tied up in bitcoin....

mskryxz

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Merit: 250

Also,

can write it as a loss right for taxes?

mskryxz

sr. member

Activity: 433

Merit: 250

Quote from: skivrmt on January 03, 2014, 12:35:53 PM

I think $10k would be a bit too high. Yes, we've grown more than that up until this point, but it always becomes a questions of market capitalization. The amount of new capital that needs to flow into XBT from $1 to $100 was -relatively- small. $100 to $1000 was about ~9B. $1000 to $10000 would be ~$100B in NEW capital. I'm not saying we can't do it, just that it's rather unlikly.

I notice 10k or more seems to have the most votes so far. For those that think so, put your money where your mouth (vote) is! You get decent odds right now:

http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/

I bet no. Even if I'm wrong I kinda still win... Grin

Very tempting to play.

Even if you vote no and it reaches 10k and you lose 1 btc, it is still a win situation overall since it goes all the way up to 10k in this example.
If it doesn't go to 10k, lets say 7500, if you voted no, you also win 7500 on top of the btc price increasing already.

skivrmt

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Activity: 994

Merit: 501

I think $10k would be a bit too high. Yes, we've grown more than that up until this point, but it always becomes a questions of market capitalization. The amount of new capital that needs to flow into XBT from $1 to $100 was -relatively- small. $100 to $1000 was about ~9B. $1000 to $10000 would be ~$100B in NEW capital. I'm not saying we can't do it, just that it's rather unlikly.

I notice 10k or more seems to have the most votes so far. For those that think so, put your money where your mouth (vote) is! You get decent odds right now:

http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/

I bet no. Even if I'm wrong I kinda still win... Grin

mskryxz

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Activity: 433

Merit: 250