How about as a first test measure "FRR = (average of all current swaps/85)*100"? This would mean that the 15% fee of Bitfinex is added statically on top of the FRR, as currently if you lend at FRR, you receive only 85% of the average rate in reality.
This would mean the FRR rises the more it gets used and no fancy programming would need to happen (unlike "FRR +/- X%" scenarios, that can also end up cancelling each other out).
Are you proposing including the FRR swaps in the calculation and not just the fixed rate swaps?
I don't see how your calculation will raise the rate due to more FFR swaps being taken. I think the FRR would get a one time boost when the new formula is implemented and then will proceed to drop just as it does now.
This is one of the main issues. Our goal is not to raise the rates, or lower the rates. Whatever the rate is, we would like to see it adjust to market conditions. That is one of the main problems with this discussion, is that we are looking for ways to improve the FRR, not improve returns for people providing swaps. Most suggestions are looking for ways to increase returns for swaps providers, and while many of those suggestions could work, they are not actually answering the question that was asked, how do we improve the calculation of the FRR? In my opinion, as bitcoin goes more and more mainstream, I think the swap providers will be competing with more of the open market for returns, and I don't see how rates can stay at this level, when they start competing with the expected returns that most people are used to.
That being said, I think we are getting close to an announcement on how we will adjust it. Stay tuned.
I am not necessarily trying to improve the rates of swap providers here. It's more of a fact though that the FRR is artificially surpressing the swap rate because of the way it works. This can be observed very well and in fact today was one of the best days to observe it.
With the FRR gone because of large demand in the past days only then we had large (and not really healthy or rational) upward spikes to astronomical rates because there is no incentive to put in orders at the top to create a deep order book.
Now that some large sums have been returned and were immidiately stacked up on the FRR rate we have a huge fastly downward moving wall which won't be eaten any time soon. This would have never happened without the FRR and because of the way the rate is calculated and every lender naturally trying to get his money lend out we are ALWAYS moving downward until we get so low that the FRR dries up and gets eaten. That's not how it supposed to happen and I don't seee any way why it has to be like this.
We had a 3m FRR rate for quite some time and now have just build up another 1m in less than one day. We would almost never see those huge walls without the FRR (in fact I've only ever once seen a single 7 figure offer in the last year). It's foolish to believe that such walls don't have an influence on the market automatically (and the influence is logically downward).