We finally have someone that is willing to discuss the macro-economic implications of bitcoin. Can everyone else (except theymos) stfu and just let dialogue open?
"Ideal Money the Motivations of Savings and Thrift"
Why do we save? Why we seek hedge? It's because our money inflates. The less stable in this regard, the more safety we seek. The most stable our money, the less we need to save.
Conclusion
So bitcoin is currently ideal "type 2" store of value money. It is definitely not ideal "type 1" price denomination "currency". Whether it becomes ideal type 1 price denomination currency isn't in the hands of the bitcoin devs, it's in the hands of credit markets and governments.
Great contribution to this thread. Sincerely. But bad conclusion. You conclusion should be, we cannot approach "type 1" stability,
if we destroy bitcoin's properties as a type 2 (ie gold) therefore it is core's mandate to guard bitcoin's type 2 properties as a digital gold.And if they try to make bitcoin type 1 then it immediately, even by intention, destorys bitcoin's properties as a type 2 (gold) because anyone that knows anything about keynes/hayek or szabo/nash KNOWS you cannot centrally plan or design a type 1 money in and of itself (any more than you can stir muddy water clean).
Now what in this do we not understand or feel perfectly relates to the discussion of how to bring about Ideal Money and bitcoin's relevance to that pursuit?
…money itself is a sort of “utility”, using the word in another sense, comparable to supplies of water, electric energy or telecommunications. And then, if we think about it, we can consider the quality of money as comparable to the quality of some “public utility” like the supply of electric energy or of water.
…we may become irrational in thinking about it and fail to be able to reason about it as if about a technology, such as radio…
We of Terra could be taught how to have ideal monetary systems if wise and benevolent extraterrestrials were to take us in hand and administer our national money systems analogously to how the British recently administered the currency of Hong Kong.
...if, for example, all of the countries of the world would base the value for their national currencies on the value of the British currency then this situation would appear singular and unstable, while it was not so singular for a lot of countries to base their currency value on gold.
The historical fact seems to be that the gold standard, was, in its time, a basis that favored the prosperity of the United Kingdom and of other states, like the United States and Switzerland, that adopted the concept of the standard.
Nowadays, however, few would propose a return to the actual use of simply the metal gold as a standard...
But a modern alternative is possible, one that would provide a good standard independent of state pardoners. This idea occurred to me fairly recently.
...if two states evolve towards having currencies or more stable value as measured locally by national CPI indices that then also these distinct currencies would tend to evolve towards more stable comparative relations of value.
Then the limiting or “asymptotic” result of such an evolutionary trend would be in effect “ideal money” but this as a result achieved without the adoption of anything like an ICPI index as a basis for the standard of value.
…intrinsically free of “inflationary decadence”..a true “gold standard”, but the proposed basis for that was not the proposal of a linkage to gold
…a global money standard could have a value similar to that of standard measures such as those of the metric system.
…this standard, as a basis for the standardization of the value of the international money unit, would remove the political roles of the “grand pardoners,”…
There is tremendous value in simply having prices quoted conveniently.
So it occurs to me to think that that which is not achieved by a grand action of establishment by “fiat” may alternatively tend to come into existence as a consequence of a process of evolution. And of course, after a certain degree of progress by “evolution” the rest of the progress could possibly be realized by a convention or a process of “fiat”.
The constitutional structure of the authority behind the euro is of the “paper money” character in that nothing is really guaranteed as far as the value of the euro is concerned. But this is typical of all currencies used in the world nowadays.
I think of the possibility that a good sort of international currency might EVOLVE before the time when an official establishment might occur.
…the possible area for evolution is that if, say, an inflation rate of between 1% and 3% is now considered desirable and appropriate in Sweden, then, if it is really controllable, why shouldn’t a rate between 1/2 % and 3/2 % be even more desirable?
M. Friedman acquired fame through teaching the linkage between the supply of money and, effectively, its value. In retrospect it seems as if elementary, but Friedman was as if a teacher who re-taught to American economists the classical concept of the “law of supply and demand”, this in connection with money.
…my personal view is that a practical global money might most favorably evolve through the development first of a few regional currencies of truly good quality. And then the “integration” or “coordination” of those into a global currency would become just a technical problem. (Here I am thinking of a politically neutral form of a technological utility rather than of a money which might, for example, be used to exert pressures in a conflict situation comparable to “the cold war”.)
Starting with the idea of value stabilization in relation to a domestic price index associated with the territory of one state, beyond that there is the natural and logical concept of internationally based comparisons.
The currencies being compared, like now the euro, the dollar, the yen, the pound, the swiss franc, the swedish kronor, etc. can be viewed with critical eyes by their users and by those who maybe have the option of whether or not or how to use one of them. This can lead to pressure for good quality and consequently for a lessened rate of inflationary deprecation in value.
…after consulting with some of the economics faculty at Princeton, I learned of the work and publications of Friedrich Von Hayek. I must say that my thinking i apparently quite parallel to his thinking with regard to money and particularly with regard to the non-typical viewpoint regarding the functions of the authorities that in recent times have been the sources of currencies.
And this parallel makes it seem not implausible that a process of political evolution might lead to the expectation on the part of citizens in the “great democracies” that they should be better situated to be able to understand whatever will be the monetary policies which, indeed, are typically of great importance to citizens who may have alternative options for where to place their “savings”.
…we can’t really logically assume that human civilization has found the ultimate ideal of forms of social government in the times of the twentieth century. (One can imagine a future form of government where a highly advanced automaton (or array of computers) would function like the office of a City Manager with the human input to the government passing through the analogue of a City Council.)