[PicoStocks] 100TH/s bitcoin mine [100th] - page 74.

Eric Muyser

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Activity: 224

Merit: 100

You can't kill math.

Quote from: furuknap on June 04, 2013, 10:27:12 AM

Quote from: gebir on June 04, 2013, 09:55:48 AM

Code:

Chip packaging delay 
The packaging facility will ship the chips on 2013-06-10. We have 2 weeks delay :-( 
Created on 2013-06-04 15:44:00 by Leszek Rychlewski; Published on 2013-06-04 15:45:33 by koji;

Ouch... What does this mean for the Bitbet thing from Bitfury? Is it even possible that the bet can still be Yes? From what I read, only the public demo must be announced two weeks in advance, but a private confirmation can come at any time, so perhaps there is still hope for Yes-betters?

.b

It ships on the 10th. He has 5 days to receive it and test it. Seems like he only expected 1 day to test it before the delay. 4 day shipping, go go go.

furuknap

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

http://coin.furuknap.net/

Quote from: gebir on June 04, 2013, 09:55:48 AM

Code:

Chip packaging delay 
The packaging facility will ship the chips on 2013-06-10. We have 2 weeks delay :-( 
Created on 2013-06-04 15:44:00 by Leszek Rychlewski; Published on 2013-06-04 15:45:33 by koji;

Ouch... What does this mean for the Bitbet thing from Bitfury? Is it even possible that the bet can still be Yes? From what I read, only the public demo must be announced two weeks in advance, but a private confirmation can come at any time, so perhaps there is still hope for Yes-betters?

.b

gebir

member

Activity: 76

Merit: 10

To be or to have

Code:

Chip packaging delay 
The packaging facility will ship the chips on 2013-06-10. We have 2 weeks delay :-( 
Created on 2013-06-04 15:44:00 by Leszek Rychlewski; Published on 2013-06-04 15:45:33 by koji;

Eric Muyser

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

You can't kill math.

Quote from: kaerf on June 03, 2013, 08:44:20 PM

Quote from: slightboyme on June 03, 2013, 06:47:27 PM

I guess the part I am trying to understand is what evidence do we have that indicates 100TH will deploy before Metabank ships their 120G miner? Is 100TH simply hosting tons of the same product that is going for preorder at the moment or are we talking about something very different, thus the potential early deployment?

Thanks

I'm not sure when metabank will get their chips, but they are getting them from tytus et al.

If metabank gets the chips at the same time (or very soon after) as 100th, then I guess it could be a race to see who is able to assemble their hardware faster. I don't know how Metabank will package their ASICS, but 100th doesn't need to put things into a pretty box, so this could potentially give 100th a slight edge.
/speculation

Metabank definitely offers a good price, but 100th offers ( a little bit of ) liquidity.

I missed how this all began but I always assumed Bitfury made a deal with the 100TH guys to create chip for them, 100TH manufactures 100TH in their Taiwan factory for themselves, then for Metabank to sell on behalf of Bitfury. Kind of like you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours.

kaerf

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Merit: 500

Quote from: slightboyme on June 03, 2013, 06:47:27 PM

I guess the part I am trying to understand is what evidence do we have that indicates 100TH will deploy before Metabank ships their 120G miner? Is 100TH simply hosting tons of the same product that is going for preorder at the moment or are we talking about something very different, thus the potential early deployment?

Thanks

I'm not sure when metabank will get their chips, but they are getting them from tytus et al.

If metabank gets the chips at the same time (or very soon after) as 100th, then I guess it could be a race to see who is able to assemble their hardware faster. I don't know how Metabank will package their ASICS, but 100th doesn't need to put things into a pretty box, so this could potentially give 100th a slight edge.
/speculation

Metabank definitely offers a good price, but 100th offers ( a little bit of ) liquidity.

slightboyme

newbie

Activity: 54

Merit: 0

I guess the part I am trying to understand is what evidence do we have that indicates 100TH will deploy before Metabank ships their 120G miner? Is 100TH simply hosting tons of the same product that is going for preorder at the moment or are we talking about something very different, thus the potential early deployment?

Thanks

gebir

member

Activity: 76

Merit: 10

To be or to have

100th will be the first.

100TH - July
Metabank miner - August-October (?)

furuknap

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

http://coin.furuknap.net/

Quote from: slightboyme on June 03, 2013, 06:05:07 PM

I may have missed this but what is the relationship between this project and the Metabank 120G pre order that is going on right now? Are we talking about the same timeline or this is going to be online sooner? I am deciding which one I should invest.

100TH is a mine
Metabank is a miner

What a difference an r makes :-)

Both use Bitfury's ASICs, though.

.b

slightboyme

newbie

Activity: 54

Merit: 0

I may have missed this but what is the relationship between this project and the Metabank 120G pre order that is going on right now? Are we talking about the same timeline or this is going to be online sooner? I am deciding which one I should invest.

Thanks

kaerf

hero member

Activity: 631

Merit: 500

Quote from: furuknap on June 02, 2013, 11:01:59 PM

Quote from: Xtc on June 02, 2013, 01:37:54 PM

Quote from: bitfury on June 02, 2013, 09:49:45 AM

статус когда нам доставят микросхемы думаю узнаю завтра-послезавтра, надеюсь на неделе получим.

At this week

Ah, thanks!

In other news, 100TH was listed as the second most desired Bitcoin asset last week on Reddit:

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinStocks/wiki/rbs3

.b

interesting survey, but pretty small sample size. 100th is 2nd with 2 votes :p. The other interesting fact is that none of the people surveyed said they owned 100th.

furuknap

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Activity: 294

Merit: 250

http://coin.furuknap.net/

Quote from: Xtc on June 02, 2013, 01:37:54 PM

Quote from: bitfury on June 02, 2013, 09:49:45 AM

статус когда нам доставят микросхемы думаю узнаю завтра-послезавтра, надеюсь на неделе получим.

At this week

Ah, thanks!

In other news, 100TH was listed as the second most desired Bitcoin asset last week on Reddit:

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinStocks/wiki/rbs3

.b

Xtc

legendary

Activity: 1973

Merit: 1028

;u

Quote from: bitfury on June 02, 2013, 09:49:45 AM

статус когда нам доставят микросхемы думаю узнаю завтра-послезавтра, надеюсь на неделе получим.

At this week

furuknap

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Activity: 294

Merit: 250

http://coin.furuknap.net/

Quote from: furuknap on June 01, 2013, 09:18:15 PM

Tytus,

According to https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitfury-metabank-asic-120-ghs-my-intermediary-services-221200, Metabank and Bitfury have started accepting orders for their miners. Is it safe to assume based on that post that this means Bitfury has tested the chips and they are working?

.b

Google Translate:

Quote from: bitfury on June 02, 2013, 09:49:45 AM

I can say that 99.9% of the chip will have no problems with power supply and shreds

I don't know enough about chip design to fully understand whether this is the test for failure that was pending until now, but this at least to me seems like good news. I know performance still needs to be tested.

Can someone fluent in Russian and English please read that post and see what is actually being said?

We're really eager for an official update from 100TH...

.b

furuknap

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

http://coin.furuknap.net/

Tytus,

According to https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitfury-metabank-asic-120-ghs-my-intermediary-services-221200, Metabank and Bitfury have started accepting orders for their miners. Is it safe to assume based on that post that this means Bitfury has tested the chips and they are working?

.b

MPOE-PR

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 522

Quote from: Transisto on May 31, 2013, 12:14:37 PM

Code:

If the chips fail to meet the expected performance the manufacturer will provide the mine
with additional boards to achieve the expected hashrate of 100TH/s (or 0.2GH/s per
raised 1USD). If the chips fail to achieve the expected power efficiency the manufacturer
will renegotiate the management deal with the hosting data center and compensate the
100TH-mine project for the losses. If the chips fail completely a substantial delay in
mining will occur. The manufacturer will undertake an effort to reimburse the investors
not only for the invested capital but also for the lost income up to the level of 10 USD per
invested 5 USD

I don't know who in his right mind imagines such fantasy is worth the forum paper it's printed on. With what money will a manufacturer that blew its product compensate investors "not only for capital but also for "lost" income"? If it didn't need the capital to build the chip it wouldn't need the investors. If it spends the capital on building the chip it has nothing left over to compensate anyone. Look at bASIC (this guy's previous pseudo"investment"), look at BFL, look wherever you want. This "we invest and if things go well we make bank yet if things go badly we get everything back plus more" doesn't exist outside of Kramerica Industries.

kaerf

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Activity: 631

Merit: 500

Quote from: furuknap on May 31, 2013, 10:08:28 AM

Even my analysis doesn't account for the possibility that BFL or Avalon remains off the market for a long time. We know they are shipping _something_ but we don't have any real numbers and don't know the long-term feasibility of their deliveries. Someone may be excused for speculating that neither of those vendors will not deliver by October, in which case the current share price is a steal.

And this is something that we all need to keep adjusting in our calculations. I made some projections weeks (months?) ago about the potential earnings for 100TH. The projections have changed dramatically since BFL/Avalon have delayed and AM is not being aggressive with their rollout. My current projections are nearly double of what I initially calculated.

IF 100TH can meet their projected timelines, the price is still good (of course this all depends on what kind of ROI you want and how fast you want).

FWIW, I don't think projecting more than 24 months out makes any sense. IMO, the earnings curve quickly plateaus starting around 18 months from now.

Transisto

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Activity: 1731

Merit: 1008

Quote from: furuknap on May 31, 2013, 10:08:28 AM

Quote from: Eric Muyser on May 31, 2013, 12:46:59 AM

As with anything. Risk is definitely taken into account at the current price I think.

..............

Of course, if Bitfury comes back tomorrow and says "Sorry, we messed up and the chips don't work" then the current price, or any price, is a complete loss. ..

Not a complete loss because the chip order is insured.

Code:

If the chips fail to meet the expected performance the manufacturer will provide the mine
with additional boards to achieve the expected hashrate of 100TH/s (or 0.2GH/s per
raised 1USD). If the chips fail to achieve the expected power efficiency the manufacturer
will renegotiate the management deal with the hosting data center and compensate the
100TH-mine project for the losses. If the chips fail completely a substantial delay in
mining will occur. The manufacturer will undertake an effort to reimburse the investors
not only for the invested capital but also for the lost income up to the level of 10 USD per
invested 5 USD

Eric Muyser

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

You can't kill math.

Quote from: furuknap on May 31, 2013, 10:08:28 AM

Quote from: Eric Muyser on May 31, 2013, 12:46:59 AM

As with anything. Risk is definitely taken into account at the current price I think.

That's very difficult to determine because the upsides and downsides are so big here. Obviously, unless you somehow trade options and futures, you can't lose more than your investment, which is a likely scenario if the chips fail. On the other hand, even slight delays in shipping from BFL and Avalon (or others) can lead to a massive upside that isn't even remotely priced into the share price at the moment.

Even my analysis doesn't account for the possibility that BFL or Avalon remains off the market for a long time. We know they are shipping _something_ but we don't have any real numbers and don't know the long-term feasibility of their deliveries. Someone may be excused for speculating that neither of those vendors will not deliver by October, in which case the current share price is a steal.

Of course, if Bitfury comes back tomorrow and says "Sorry, we messed up and the chips don't work" then the current price, or any price, is a complete loss.

.b

Right, that's what I mean. I think, meaning, it's my opinion, that the current price is sufficiently cheap enough for me to risk never seeing these Bitcoins again, taking in consideration the profit and dividends if they succeed. I have faith in bitfury. Not as much as friedcat though.

furuknap

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

http://coin.furuknap.net/

Quote from: Eric Muyser on May 31, 2013, 12:46:59 AM

As with anything. Risk is definitely taken into account at the current price I think.

That's very difficult to determine because the upsides and downsides are so big here. Obviously, unless you somehow trade options and futures, you can't lose more than your investment, which is a likely scenario if the chips fail. On the other hand, even slight delays in shipping from BFL and Avalon (or others) can lead to a massive upside that isn't even remotely priced into the share price at the moment.

Even my analysis doesn't account for the possibility that BFL or Avalon remains off the market for a long time. We know they are shipping _something_ but we don't have any real numbers and don't know the long-term feasibility of their deliveries. Someone may be excused for speculating that neither of those vendors will not deliver by October, in which case the current share price is a steal.

Of course, if Bitfury comes back tomorrow and says "Sorry, we messed up and the chips don't work" then the current price, or any price, is a complete loss.

.b

Eric Muyser

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

You can't kill math.

Quote from: fently on May 30, 2013, 03:39:42 PM

Quote from: ronaldlee0917 on May 30, 2013, 11:41:30 AM

Quote from: nullfiat on May 30, 2013, 04:29:06 AM

Div/share per month calculation. Maybe I missed it here. Can someone give the formula?

Since each share = 200MH/s, you may use a standard mining profitability calculator to estimate the profit for each share.
please try: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ (Forum warning: Possible phishing link!)
modify hash rate to 200
modify difficulty to the estimated difficulty for July
then deduct management cost and electricity cost

I feel like I'm stating the obvious, but given the above quoted exchange, it needs to be said: you need to factor in risk. The project could still fail to deliver expected outcomes.

As with anything. Risk is definitely taken into account at the current price I think.

Topic: [PicoStocks] 100TH/s bitcoin mine [100th] - page 74. (Read 470203 times)