[PicoStocks] 100TH/s bitcoin mine [100th] - page 78.

furuknap

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Quote from: abuelau on May 24, 2013, 05:56:46 AM

While AM can at least stay constant or even increase (as they also sell hardware, don't forget that).

AM already has reached the peak it can safely operate. If AM is at 40% and one or two major miners or pools go offline, we have a 51% situation.

This will be mitigated by other miners and pools entering the scene, but AM can not increase its rate. AM can only increase costs. There is no way AM can make more money than they already are. Profitability can only go down. I'm not sure how many more ways I can say that.

Hardware sales is a temporary and minor boost at the moment. If you think otherwise, I have a bunch of Pentium IIIs chips you can buy for $1K each.

.b

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This is where a lot of people get it wrong; there is no direct link between hashrate and earning. There is a direct link between percentage of network and earning, at least for the mining part of the equation. If AM rolls out 500TH and nobody else has rolled out more, then Bitcoin as we know it is dead.

Exactly!

So from an investment perspective, 100TH can only DECREASE the % of total hashrate they own, while AM can increase (if they choose so). This means that from the moment 100TH launches it will ALWAYS produce less and less dividends as time passes. While AM can at least stay constant or even increase (as they also sell hardware, don't forget that).

MPOE-PR

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Quote from: furuknap on May 24, 2013, 05:07:53 AM

ASICMiner has just announced they've decided to go with 65/55 nm for their next gen chip, which means they haven't really come far in the process. 100TH seems to have that generation now or at least very shortly.

What difference would generation make for a:

1. Fixed TH offering. For all you care it could be done on CPUs, as long as it matches 100TH it's the same.
2. Dubious offering. This guy with no prior history came out of the blue one day claiming about 1 million dollars' worth of investment in Basic backing his stuff. Basic turned out a scam. Somehow magically the guy didn't make a loss on the deal, but just invested his (obviously imaginary - on the grounds that no explanation was offered at the time) million in another dubious venture. Even if it were the case Bitfury actually delivers, there is absolutely no proof this thing is going to receive anything from there.

It's not a matter of "risky". It's a matter of nonsense.

furuknap

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Quote from: abuelau on May 24, 2013, 05:15:50 AM

The question is not only that. The question is about short-term vs. long term. Sure, ASICMiner is starting with 65/55 nm now, but look at what friedcat's already done. The guy can deliver. Even if he's a couple of months behind TH, he will deliver, and in 1 years time, 100TH will still be 100TH but Asicminer could be already in 500TH for all I know.

This is where a lot of people get it wrong; there is no direct link between hashrate and earning. There is a direct link between percentage of network and earning, at least for the mining part of the equation. If AM rolls out 500TH and nobody else has rolled out more, then Bitcoin as we know it is dead.

If 100TH rolls out 100TH and AM rolls out 100TH (and let's forget the rest of the network for a moment) then that is the extent to which they can both grow. AM cannot add 200TH or even 2TH more and start earning more money.

If another actor adds 100TH for a total of 300TH in the network then AM can increase to 200TH but that will not increase its earnings by a single bitcent. It will only add costs, which is why we have seen the peak of AM profitability and AM cannot possibly impress anyone.

.b

abuelau

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ASICMiner has just announced they've decided to go with 65/55 nm for their next gen chip, which means they haven't really come far in the process. 100TH seems to have that generation now or at least very shortly.

AM has been earning a lot from hardware sales because they have essentially been the only supplier in a very desperate market. They will need to sell 200 blades and 10K USB miners every month to keep up the dividends they have been paying lately.

AM cannot grow much further. Their entire proof of capability, which exceeds anyone in the business by orders of magnitude, has already been priced into the share.

100TH has just started growing. Their entire proof of capability, which doesn't even exist yet, has not been priced into the share.

They key question will be; does 100TH deliver? If they do, they will be one generation ahead of AM and AM will suddenly be the Pentium III trying to catch up with a new generation of chips and arguing that "yeah, but we got a lot of Pentium IIIs on order!"

The question is not only that. The question is about short-term vs. long term. Sure, ASICMiner is starting with 65/55 nm now, but look at what friedcat's already done. The guy can deliver. Even if he's a couple of months behind TH, he will deliver, and in 1 years time, 100TH will still be 100TH but Asicminer could be already in 500TH for all I know.

This is what you need to consider. Plus, 100TH has no history of delivering so it's way more risky in my view. I am not saying whether it's a good or bad investment, but in my view it's more risky than Asicminer (especially so in the medium to long term).

furuknap

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Quote from: 🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 on May 24, 2013, 04:58:57 AM

ASICMINER's has at least 200TH/s ordered and they are earning a lot from hardware sales.

ASICMiner has just announced they've decided to go with 65/55 nm for their next gen chip, which means they haven't really come far in the process. 100TH seems to have that generation now or at least very shortly.

AM has been earning a lot from hardware sales because they have essentially been the only supplier in a very desperate market. They will need to sell 200 blades and 10K USB miners every month to keep up the dividends they have been paying lately.

AM cannot grow much further. Their entire proof of capability, which exceeds anyone in the business by orders of magnitude, has already been priced into the share.

100TH has just started growing. Their entire proof of capability, which doesn't even exist yet, has not been priced into the share.

They key question will be; does 100TH deliver? If they do, they will be one generation ahead of AM and AM will suddenly be the Pentium III trying to catch up with a new generation of chips and arguing that "yeah, but we got a lot of Pentium IIIs on order!"

.b

lysr

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Quote from: 🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 on May 24, 2013, 04:58:57 AM

Quote from: lysr on May 24, 2013, 04:58:17 AM

Quote from: abuelau on May 24, 2013, 04:53:09 AM

Quote

there are still 11million of bitcoins to mine, assuming that ASICMINER is capable of getting 10% of the total hash rate, you only get
1.1m / 10 / 400k = 2.75 btc per share which will be paid in a time frame of 10-20 years.
if they are capable of getting 20%
you will get 5.5 btc per share
If you factor in all the blades sales and usb sales, there will be a bit more, but this source of income won't last long, they have a very uncompetitive price.
I don't know how you come up with the price of 8btc

There's just a small detail: these 11 million bitcoins are to be mined in the next 20 years or so (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Bitcoin_mining). Do you really believe that 100TH will be anything by the end of 2014? With all these ASICs coming into the market, by that time, 100TH will probably be as much as 100MH/s is today! It's all about the difficulty, don't get too hung up by the TH/s numbers.

By that time, 17Th would definitely be equal to 17MH then.
I know the maths, it is 200Mh per share which should be a lot cheaper than a lot of other alternatives, I expect I will get double or triple of my investment by the end of 2014, plus I don't need to go over the hassle of making group buys or auctions.

ASICMINER's has at least 200TH/s ordered and they are earning a lot from hardware sales.

Ya, I am sure that 200Th would be deployed at the end of next month.

🏰 TradeFortress 🏰

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Quote from: lysr on May 24, 2013, 04:58:17 AM

Quote from: abuelau on May 24, 2013, 04:53:09 AM

Quote

there are still 11million of bitcoins to mine, assuming that ASICMINER is capable of getting 10% of the total hash rate, you only get
1.1m / 10 / 400k = 2.75 btc per share which will be paid in a time frame of 10-20 years.
if they are capable of getting 20%
you will get 5.5 btc per share
If you factor in all the blades sales and usb sales, there will be a bit more, but this source of income won't last long, they have a very uncompetitive price.
I don't know how you come up with the price of 8btc

There's just a small detail: these 11 million bitcoins are to be mined in the next 20 years or so (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Bitcoin_mining). Do you really believe that 100TH will be anything by the end of 2014? With all these ASICs coming into the market, by that time, 100TH will probably be as much as 100MH/s is today! It's all about the difficulty, don't get too hung up by the TH/s numbers.

By that time, 17Th would definitely be equal to 17MH then.
I know the maths, it is 200Mh per share which should be a lot cheaper than a lot of other alternatives, I expect I will get double or triple of my investment by the end of 2014, plus I don't need to go over the hassle of making group buys or auctions.

ASICMINER's has at least 200TH/s ordered and they are earning a lot from hardware sales.

lysr

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Quote from: abuelau on May 24, 2013, 04:53:09 AM

Quote

there are still 11million of bitcoins to mine, assuming that ASICMINER is capable of getting 10% of the total hash rate, you only get
1.1m / 10 / 400k = 2.75 btc per share which will be paid in a time frame of 10-20 years.
if they are capable of getting 20%
you will get 5.5 btc per share
If you factor in all the blades sales and usb sales, there will be a bit more, but this source of income won't last long, they have a very uncompetitive price.
I don't know how you come up with the price of 8btc

There's just a small detail: these 11 million bitcoins are to be mined in the next 20 years or so (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Bitcoin_mining). Do you really believe that 100TH will be anything by the end of 2014? With all these ASICs coming into the market, by that time, 100TH will probably be as much as 100MH/s is today! It's all about the difficulty, don't get too hung up by the TH/s numbers.

By that time, 17Th would definitely be equal to 17MH then.
I know the maths, it is 200Mh per share which should be a lot cheaper than a lot of other alternatives, I expect I will get double or triple of my investment by the end of 2014, plus I don't need to go over the hassle of making group buys or auctions.

abuelau

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there are still 11million of bitcoins to mine, assuming that ASICMINER is capable of getting 10% of the total hash rate, you only get
1.1m / 10 / 400k = 2.75 btc per share which will be paid in a time frame of 10-20 years.
if they are capable of getting 20%
you will get 5.5 btc per share
If you factor in all the blades sales and usb sales, there will be a bit more, but this source of income won't last long, they have a very uncompetitive price.
I don't know how you come up with the price of 8btc

There's just a small detail: these 11 million bitcoins are to be mined in the next 20 years or so (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Bitcoin_mining). Do you really believe that 100TH will be anything by the end of 2014? With all these ASICs coming into the market, by that time, 100TH will probably be as much as 100MH/s is today! It's all about the difficulty, don't get too hung up by the TH/s numbers.

lysr

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Quote from: abuelau on May 24, 2013, 04:40:21 AM

Quote

As a comparison, you only get 17TH / 400000 from an ASICMINER share, and the number is dropping, and a share of it is traded at 2.5btc per share right now. Why shouldn't I sell some of them while the price is high and buy some underpriced shares instead?

The thing is though that AsicMiner has 17TH today (not in 1 or 2 months time). When 100TH comes live, who know what the difficulty will be? Avalon has tons of TH/s in the backlog, BFL same thing. Lots of other companies also bought Avalon chips.

I don't know about ASICMiner reducing their capacity, but given how well managed the company has been so far, I would not be surprised if that stock reaches 8 BTC by the end of the year (remember, they are continuously investing more). So you could be selling it for 2.5 BTC today and missing out later. It's all a big gamble, no one really knows what is going to happen.

there are still 11million of bitcoins to mine, assuming that ASICMINER is capable of getting 10% of the total hash rate, you only get
11m / 10 / 400k = 2.75 btc per share which will be paid in a time frame of 10-20 years.
if they are capable of getting 20%
you will get 5.5 btc per share
If you factor in all the blades sales and usb sales, there will be a bit more, but this source of income won't last long, they have a very uncompetitive price.
I don't know how you come up with the price of 8btc

abuelau

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As a comparison, you only get 17TH / 400000 from an ASICMINER share, and the number is dropping, and a share of it is traded at 2.5btc per share right now. Why shouldn't I sell some of them while the price is high and buy some underpriced shares instead?

The thing is though that AsicMiner has 17TH today (not in 1 or 2 months time). When 100TH comes live, who know what the difficulty will be? Avalon has tons of TH/s in the backlog, BFL same thing. Lots of other companies also bought Avalon chips.

I don't know about ASICMiner reducing their capacity, but given how well managed the company has been so far, I would not be surprised if that stock reaches 8 BTC by the end of the year (remember, they are continuously investing more). So you could be selling it for 2.5 BTC today and missing out later. It's all a big gamble, no one really knows what is going to happen.

lysr

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Quote from: abuelau on May 24, 2013, 04:29:30 AM

Quote

How long do you think ASICMINER could catch up with 100TH?
Last time I check , they only have 17TH and declining.
Plus ASICMINER has switched its focus to hardware production, after the market is saturated with asic hardware, those income would become irrelevant.

You are missing the point here. YOU are not buying 100 TH/s. You are buying 200MH/s per stock!

Who cares how many GH/s are there in total from 100TH? You don't own them all.

As a comparison, you only get 17TH / 400000 from an ASICMINER share, and the number is dropping, and a share of it is traded at 2.5btc per share right now. Why shouldn't I sell some of them while the price is high and buy some underpriced shares instead?

abuelau

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How long do you think ASICMINER could catch up with 100TH?
Last time I check , they only have 17TH and declining.
Plus ASICMINER has switched its focus to hardware production, after the market is saturated with asic hardware, those income would become irrelevant.

You are missing the point here. YOU are not buying 100 TH/s. You are buying 200MH/s per stock!

Who cares how many GH/s are there in total from 100TH? You don't own them all.

abuelau

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Ya, i bet it is more efficient to buy 300Mhz usb at the price of 2btc from ASICMINER.
The only cost efficient competitor now is BFL, but they fail to deliver again and again, I don't have faith in them anymore.

You could buy an Avalon system from one of the auctions going on every day here in Bitcointalk, you would pay about 1BTC per 1 Gh/s (or less). You could also go to Bitfunder and you will find half a dozen stocks there similar to 100TH. You could even buy yourself a GPU, mine Litecoin and exchange for BTC. You could also join some of these group buying sharing Avalon systems...

As I said, there are many options. But I agree that this 300Mh/s USB stick is not the best one, I would never have bought it.

lysr

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Quote from: abuelau on May 24, 2013, 04:01:23 AM

This is definitely not AM 2.0. Every share gives you 200 mh/s that's it. There are lots of other ways to get 200 mh/s this is just one of them.

AsicMiner is different, as they keep re-investing and putting more and more mh/s in the system so if you have one AM share giving you say, 100 mh/s today, that same share could give you 150mh/s tomorrow, when they put more miners in the system.

Ya, i bet it is more efficient to buy 300Mhz usb at the price of 2btc or 10Gh blades @50btc from ASICMINER, ouch you also need to buy them in bulk or join a group-buy.
The only cost efficient competitor now is BFL, but they fail to deliver again and again, I don't have faith in them anymore, if you make your order just by now, you probably won't see your product before the end of this year.

lysr

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Quote from: superduh on May 24, 2013, 03:54:11 AM

Quote from: lysr on May 24, 2013, 02:18:19 AM

This has the potential of becoming ASICMINER 2.0,
I sold some of my ASICMINERS shares and bought some 100TH.
Hope that the mine would be deployed within the planned time frame, if so, it surely would outshine ASICMINER.

you do know what you are saying.
this is not AM 2.0. there is no reinvesting that will be done and during this time AM will have 200TH. not sure how much research you did
not that this is bad but i don't think you are comparing correctly

How long do you think ASICMINER could catch up with 100TH?
Last time I check , they only have 17TH and declining.
Plus ASICMINER has switched its focus to hardware production, after the market is saturated with asic hardware, those income would become irrelevant.

abuelau

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This is definitely not AM 2.0. Every share gives you 200 mh/s that's it. There are lots of other ways to get 200 mh/s this is just one of them.

AsicMiner is different, as they keep re-investing and putting more and more mh/s in the system so if you have one AM share giving you say, 100 mh/s today, that same share could give you 150mh/s tomorrow, when they put more miners in the system.

superduh

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Quote from: lysr on May 24, 2013, 02:18:19 AM

This has the potential of becoming ASICMINER 2.0,
I sold some of my ASICMINERS shares and bought some 100TH.
Hope that the mine would be deployed within the planned time frame, if so, it surely would outshine ASICMINER.

you do know what you are saying.
this is not AM 2.0. there is no reinvesting that will be done and during this time AM will have 200TH. not sure how much research you did
not that this is bad but i don't think you are comparing correctly

lysr

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This has the potential of becoming ASICMINER 2.0,
I sold some of my ASICMINERS shares and bought some 100TH.
Hope that the mine would be deployed within the planned time frame, if so, it surely would outshine ASICMINER.

Topic: [PicoStocks] 100TH/s bitcoin mine [100th] - page 78. (Read 470088 times)