[PicoStocks] 100TH/s bitcoin mine [100th] - page 75.

Eric Muyser

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You can't kill math.

Quote from: furuknap on May 31, 2013, 10:08:28 AM

Quote from: Eric Muyser on May 31, 2013, 12:46:59 AM

As with anything. Risk is definitely taken into account at the current price I think.

That's very difficult to determine because the upsides and downsides are so big here. Obviously, unless you somehow trade options and futures, you can't lose more than your investment, which is a likely scenario if the chips fail. On the other hand, even slight delays in shipping from BFL and Avalon (or others) can lead to a massive upside that isn't even remotely priced into the share price at the moment.

Even my analysis doesn't account for the possibility that BFL or Avalon remains off the market for a long time. We know they are shipping _something_ but we don't have any real numbers and don't know the long-term feasibility of their deliveries. Someone may be excused for speculating that neither of those vendors will not deliver by October, in which case the current share price is a steal.

Of course, if Bitfury comes back tomorrow and says "Sorry, we messed up and the chips don't work" then the current price, or any price, is a complete loss.

.b

Right, that's what I mean. I think, meaning, it's my opinion, that the current price is sufficiently cheap enough for me to risk never seeing these Bitcoins again, taking in consideration the profit and dividends if they succeed. I have faith in bitfury. Not as much as friedcat though.

furuknap

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http://coin.furuknap.net/

Quote from: Eric Muyser on May 31, 2013, 12:46:59 AM

As with anything. Risk is definitely taken into account at the current price I think.

That's very difficult to determine because the upsides and downsides are so big here. Obviously, unless you somehow trade options and futures, you can't lose more than your investment, which is a likely scenario if the chips fail. On the other hand, even slight delays in shipping from BFL and Avalon (or others) can lead to a massive upside that isn't even remotely priced into the share price at the moment.

Even my analysis doesn't account for the possibility that BFL or Avalon remains off the market for a long time. We know they are shipping _something_ but we don't have any real numbers and don't know the long-term feasibility of their deliveries. Someone may be excused for speculating that neither of those vendors will not deliver by October, in which case the current share price is a steal.

Of course, if Bitfury comes back tomorrow and says "Sorry, we messed up and the chips don't work" then the current price, or any price, is a complete loss.

.b

Eric Muyser

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

You can't kill math.

Quote from: fently on May 30, 2013, 03:39:42 PM

Quote from: ronaldlee0917 on May 30, 2013, 11:41:30 AM

Quote from: nullfiat on May 30, 2013, 04:29:06 AM

Div/share per month calculation. Maybe I missed it here. Can someone give the formula?

Since each share = 200MH/s, you may use a standard mining profitability calculator to estimate the profit for each share.
please try: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ (Forum warning: Possible phishing link!)
modify hash rate to 200
modify difficulty to the estimated difficulty for July
then deduct management cost and electricity cost

I feel like I'm stating the obvious, but given the above quoted exchange, it needs to be said: you need to factor in risk. The project could still fail to deliver expected outcomes.

As with anything. Risk is definitely taken into account at the current price I think.

fently

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Activity: 66

Merit: 10

Bleh!

Quote from: ronaldlee0917 on May 30, 2013, 11:41:30 AM

Quote from: nullfiat on May 30, 2013, 04:29:06 AM

Div/share per month calculation. Maybe I missed it here. Can someone give the formula?

Since each share = 200MH/s, you may use a standard mining profitability calculator to estimate the profit for each share.
please try: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ (Forum warning: Possible phishing link!)
modify hash rate to 200
modify difficulty to the estimated difficulty for July
then deduct management cost and electricity cost

I feel like I'm stating the obvious, but given the above quoted exchange, it needs to be said: you need to factor in risk. The project could still fail to deliver expected outcomes.

ronaldlee0917

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Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Quote from: nullfiat on May 30, 2013, 04:29:06 AM

Div/share per month calculation. Maybe I missed it here. Can someone give the formula?

Since each share = 200MH/s, you may use a standard mining profitability calculator to estimate the profit for each share.
please try: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ (Forum warning: Possible phishing link!)
modify hash rate to 200
modify difficulty to the estimated difficulty for July
then deduct management cost and electricity cost

Aedius

newbie

Activity: 57

Merit: 0

Quote from: nullfiat on May 30, 2013, 04:29:06 AM

Div/share per month calculation. Maybe I missed it here. Can someone give the formula?

I believe there are approximately 500,000 shares outstanding for the 100TH project and 108,000 bitcoins mined per month for the entire network. The profitability of this investment depends on when the project is fully operational and how fast the total network hash rate increases. You can create your own projections based on the information provided.

Dexter770221

legendary

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Assuming 30% of total hashrate it should be 0.065 per share. Monthly.

nullfiat

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Div/share per month calculation. Maybe I missed it here. Can someone give the formula?

furuknap

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Merit: 250

http://coin.furuknap.net/

Quote from: Aedius on May 28, 2013, 09:31:46 PM

Quote from: furuknap on May 25, 2013, 04:43:06 PM

Quote from: EskimoBob on May 25, 2013, 01:48:44 PM

crickets...

What did you expect, some kind of elaborate analysis comparing 100TH to AM and projecting profitability in a variety of scenarios?

Geez, some people are never happy. Try this:

http://coin.furuknap.net/can-100th-really-be-the-next-asicminer/

.b

Your financial projections and formulas for calculating the total network hash rate are incorrect (20% increase on 218 TH = ~262 TH, not 241 TH). The network is currently at ~100 TH and has increased at 20 TH/month for the past few months.

Your projections start in August at 218 TH and 208 TH respectively, with the "100TH" mine planning to deploy ~103 TH, a realistic minimum projection for the total network hash rate would be ~240 TH. This could be much higher given that what's in the pipeline from ASICMINER, Avalon, Bitfury, BFL and others.

I responded to this and most of your other comments in the article post. In brief, however, I've excluded 100TH from the percentage increase because 100TH does not grow and to counter this the rest of the network growth must double (ie be 40% per month rather than 20%).

.b

kaerf

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Quote from: Aedius on May 28, 2013, 09:47:16 PM

Quote from: kaerf on May 28, 2013, 09:07:08 PM

I think he meant 100k. He doubts 100TH will mine 100K coins per month due to competition (increased hashing power from others).

I doubt the diff will be so low by july. Simply by putting the 100TH mine online will cause difficulty to shoot up.

However...IF the diff is really that low and 100TH manages to meet its timelines, then 100TH needs to think about limiting how much hashing power comes online in case the mine gets too close to 50% total network speed. Not sure if ASICMINER is purposefully limiting their hash rate to below 30% or if they're just having deployment issues, but tytus et al should probably choose a safe operating percentage.

I hope that's the case!

100k coins per month would be impossible anyways... One block is solved every 10 minutes so 25x6x24 =3,600 bitcoins mined per day and 108,000 bitcoins per month. I think the best case scenario is that the project launches without any delays and and the total hash rate raises to 240 TH, meaning that the 100TH project would have 103 TH / 240 TH = 42.9% of the total hash rate and would generate approximately 46,332 bitcoins per month. I don't expect 100 TH to have that high a percentage of the network though.

Oops good point. I'm not sure about my interpretation then.

Your 240TH is "close" to my projections...I'm thinking possibly up to ~275-280TH (I'm probably giving BFL too much credit) with only a 50TH rollout from 100TH. ASICMINER had problems rolling out even 20TH. However, given Bitfury's 3.3GH/W chip, the power requirements for this mine are significantly less than that of AM and 100TH might have a much easier time rolling out the full hashing rate.

Aedius

newbie

Activity: 57

Merit: 0

Quote from: kaerf on May 28, 2013, 09:07:08 PM

I think he meant 100k. He doubts 100TH will mine 100K coins per month due to competition (increased hashing power from others).

I doubt the diff will be so low by july. Simply by putting the 100TH mine online will cause difficulty to shoot up.

However...IF the diff is really that low and 100TH manages to meet its timelines, then 100TH needs to think about limiting how much hashing power comes online in case the mine gets too close to 50% total network speed. Not sure if ASICMINER is purposefully limiting their hash rate to below 30% or if they're just having deployment issues, but tytus et al should probably choose a safe operating percentage.

I hope that's the case!

100k coins per month would be impossible anyways... One block is solved every 10 minutes so 25x6x24 =3,600 bitcoins mined per day and 108,000 bitcoins per month. I think the best case scenario is that the project launches without any delays and and the total hash rate raises to 240 TH, meaning that the 100TH project would have 103 TH / 240 TH = 42.9% of the total hash rate and would generate approximately 46,332 bitcoins per month. I don't expect 100 TH to have that high a percentage of the network though.

Aedius

newbie

Activity: 57

Merit: 0

Quote from: furuknap on May 25, 2013, 04:43:06 PM

Quote from: EskimoBob on May 25, 2013, 01:48:44 PM

crickets...

What did you expect, some kind of elaborate analysis comparing 100TH to AM and projecting profitability in a variety of scenarios?

Geez, some people are never happy. Try this:

http://coin.furuknap.net/can-100th-really-be-the-next-asicminer/

.b

Your financial projections and formulas for calculating the total network hash rate are incorrect (20% increase on 218 TH = ~262 TH, not 241 TH). The network is currently at ~100 TH and has increased at 20 TH/month for the past few months. Your projections start in August at 218 TH and 208 TH respectively, with the "100TH" mine planning to deploy ~103 TH, a realistic minimum projection for the total network hash rate would be ~240 TH. This could be much higher given that what's in the pipeline from ASICMINER, Avalon, Bitfury, BFL and others.

The expected start date and network hash rate projections are the main factors in evaluating this company as an investment. I'm surprised that the share price is trading at nearly 6 times the IPO price without much significant positive news.

I'm hoping to invest in this venture once more details of the mine are made clear, but for now this is a highly speculative investment and I would advise prospective investors to do their own due diligence and financial projections.

Not trying to call you out or anything; I had made a similar post to your blog outlining some factors you may have wanted to account for in your analysis but it looks to have been deleted.

Cheers

kaerf

hero member

Activity: 631

Merit: 500

I think he meant 100k. He doubts 100TH will mine 100K coins per month due to competition (increased hashing power from others).

I doubt the diff will be so low by july. Simply by putting the 100TH mine online will cause difficulty to shoot up.

However...IF the diff is really that low and 100TH manages to meet its timelines, then 100TH needs to think about limiting how much hashing power comes online in case the mine gets too close to 50% total network speed. Not sure if ASICMINER is purposefully limiting their hash rate to below 30% or if they're just having deployment issues, but tytus et al should probably choose a safe operating percentage.

Aedius

newbie

Activity: 57

Merit: 0

Quote from: tytus on May 24, 2013, 08:04:30 AM

Oops, I missed the discussion on the thread ...

We are getting requests asking why we are "dumping" prices by offering shares from "73i6" (1AQxJQZtTNzUhviMjB8jqxxqL3Kbnm73i6 / Pico).
The main reason is that we want to increase liquidity because at low liquidity the price is too volatile. We can of course offer shares at higher prices but there must be a rational explanation of the valuation.
I believe the mine will be very successful in the first months but after that the revenues will drop (very) rapidly. The same will happen to the stock valuation. So this investment is quite tricky. To estimate the market cap of the 100th mine we have to predict how many BTC will be mined. 100k BTC are mined per month in total. I doubt the mine will make 100 BTC in the first two months. Other competitors will also fight for the mining revenues (BFL, maybe 28nm chip from helveticoin, and new batches of our chips). Also the chips have not been tested yet, so the investment is still very speculative.
We will update our projections in 3-4 weeks when we (hopefully) have functional boards.

So with the mine planned to commence on July 1st, you only expect to earn 100 BTC in the months of July and August before reaching full mining capacity on September 1st? Would appreciate it if you could clarify that sentence.

The bolded statement should be very worrying to investors...

kaerf

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Quote from: punin on May 28, 2013, 12:56:20 PM

Quote from: grimholt on May 28, 2013, 12:05:11 PM

Is this project on time (as in will start mining July 1st)?

If not, when is mining expected to start?

Difficult to say as the chips are not yet in hand, but based on Bitfury's latest post on russian forums it's looking very promising!

According to the latest update on picostocks, the first few chips will arrive this week. Anyone have a guess as to how soon we'll know if the chips are working as expected? Exciting times approaching!

thx1164

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Quote from: MPOE-PR on May 25, 2013, 07:10:31 AM

Quote from: thx1164 on May 24, 2013, 05:28:25 PM

All while your baby Satoshi Dice continues to tank.

Let me put it this way: the representation of reality in terms of cartoons, which is to say anthropomorphized animals, makes retards think everything in the simplest of terms and stop there. Here's a newsflash: reality is a little more complex than "cat chases mouse" and "Policeman fined me for speeding so he's threatened by niggers".

Don't be a retard, dare to think. What if the reason I do what I do is that I actually know what the fuck I'm talking about and there's perfectly good reasons for it? What would they be? How well do they work with what I actually say? Congratulations, you're right on the path towards intellectual normalcy (normal but not common these days).

Wow, you quoted me several times, and each time pontificated beautifully while failing to address the actual points of the lines you quoted. Well done.

This quoted part is quite simple though. Sdice prices have fallen dramatically and stayed depressed for what, weeks now? Months? And dividends are laughable. Complicate that up for me a little bit? Is there some huge upgrade coming or influx of losing customers I don't know about that will skyrocket the price back up? Honestly if you have any insight, I will gladly take it into consideration, I am not brushing you off, just insanely curious about what complicates this issue so much. 3d my cartoon for me.

But this is OT and no need to clog up the thread, I actually originally just wanted to express my opinion of your analysis and PR methods, not necessarily the outcomes of said methods. Ad hom attacks against the weakest argument and least articulate people do not put you in a good light, IMO. That's all.

punin

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Quote from: grimholt on May 28, 2013, 12:05:11 PM

Is this project on time (as in will start mining July 1st)?

If not, when is mining expected to start?

Difficult to say as the chips are not yet in hand, but based on Bitfury's latest post on russian forums it's looking very promising!

grimholt

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Is this project on time (as in will start mining July 1st)?

If not, when is mining expected to start?

RHA

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

"Crickets" is a chat term that means "no one is responding to my question; please speak up, people" (http://netforbeginners.about.com/od/c/f/What-Is-Crickets.htm)
but it can be also something "said after a lame joke to break the silence" (http://www.internetslang.com/CRICKETS-meaning-definition.asp).

EskimoBob

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Quality Printing Services by Federal Reserve Bank

Quote from: furuknap on May 25, 2013, 04:43:06 PM

Quote from: EskimoBob on May 25, 2013, 01:48:44 PM

crickets...

What did you expect, some kind of elaborate analysis comparing 100TH to AM and projecting profitability in a variety of scenarios?

Geez, some people are never happy. Try this:

http://coin.furuknap.net/can-100th-really-be-the-next-asicminer/

.b

Elaborate analysis? LOL

No, I did not.
I have never expected this confused clown Mircea Popescu and/or his muppet MPOE-PRBS to write anything more than rubbish. Usual crap from a narcissistic pervert and his minion (or is she gone and Popescu parades around this forum as "her" now?)
And yes, when this delusional arrogant little turd, Mircea Popescu, who has 0 experience in finances in real world, starts to call himself an authority on a subject... it's crickets time, every time

ROTFL

Topic: [PicoStocks] 100TH/s bitcoin mine [100th] - page 75. (Read 470140 times)