Polymarket bets of Trump's promises and other politics

STT

legendary

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Quote

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point between January 20, 2025, ET and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The price might as well be zero then because limiting it so strictly on time is never going to work. Actually moving capital in that time is unlikely and I doubt any legislation is passed in that time frame for even a theoretical transfer of reserves.

The whole story and belief in something so extreme is the kind of hype that marks a top. Thats not my general impression of BTC movement but I guess its possible we only gain 50% over the last ATH. Most people dont expect this kind of resolution to pass, just saying the idea is what garners most of the benefit to politics in that it appears the administration is friendly to crypto while actually doing zero.

Correct time scale would be the full term of the President, not sure why it had to be so rushed because most government progress is glacial.

Jating

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Quote from: Botnake on December 28, 2024, 06:58:07 AM

Quote from: JiiBs on December 25, 2024, 06:21:11 PM

Quote from: Botnake on December 23, 2024, 10:11:10 AM

That prediction works a lot like betting odds in sports, it can be overvalued or undervalued. The key is to find a market where you think you can correctly pick the winner. Now that the market is about Bitcoin, I actually like it because it’s a topic we’ve been discussing here a lot. It means we’ve already come across various opinions that we can consider and use in our analysis, and that is the edge we have over the others.

It’s a difficult to go on with for a bet given that, politics haven’t got any active role in sports betting which clearly this isn’t, neither is it a casino too but we many at times find it in the sportsbook.

Given the high level of probability on these predictions on how Trump is likely going to keep or not keep to his word and promises, taking bets here would be a tough choice. You clearly haven’t got anything to look at rather than give governance what it is and rely on Trump to be true to his word.

I think the biggest difference with Polymarket is that they’re willing to take huge bets, which might not be possible with traditional sportsbooks. On Polymarket, there seems to be no limit, you can bet millions without any KYC checks. In contrast, sportsbooks usually have strict limits, require KYC verification, and might even report large transactions to the Anti-Money Laundering Council. It’s a significant distinction, especially for high-stakes bettors looking for more freedom.

Bigger crypto based casinos can also take huge bet as far as I know, that's why there are whales and that is why there are tier rewards or levels in casino. And there are casinos older than Polymarket or at least established in the same year and still these casinos are in the market.

The thing is that Polymarket allegedly is not registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and most likely this is the reason why they are not under scrutiny by the US DOJ. So who knows, they said that the platform has allowed US citizen. Others say it's a political retribution as it predicted Trump to win the election. Or they could be thinking that Polymarket has manipulated and rigged it to make Trump the winner.

Botnake

hero member

Activity: 2856

Merit: 667

Quote from: JiiBs on December 25, 2024, 06:21:11 PM

Quote from: Botnake on December 23, 2024, 10:11:10 AM

That prediction works a lot like betting odds in sports, it can be overvalued or undervalued. The key is to find a market where you think you can correctly pick the winner. Now that the market is about Bitcoin, I actually like it because it’s a topic we’ve been discussing here a lot. It means we’ve already come across various opinions that we can consider and use in our analysis, and that is the edge we have over the others.

It’s a difficult to go on with for a bet given that, politics haven’t got any active role in sports betting which clearly this isn’t, neither is it a casino too but we many at times find it in the sportsbook.

Given the high level of probability on these predictions on how Trump is likely going to keep or not keep to his word and promises, taking bets here would be a tough choice. You clearly haven’t got anything to look at rather than give governance what it is and rely on Trump to be true to his word.

I think the biggest difference with Polymarket is that they’re willing to take huge bets, which might not be possible with traditional sportsbooks. On Polymarket, there seems to be no limit, you can bet millions without any KYC checks. In contrast, sportsbooks usually have strict limits, require KYC verification, and might even report large transactions to the Anti-Money Laundering Council. It’s a significant distinction, especially for high-stakes bettors looking for more freedom.

Saint-loup

legendary

Activity: 2604

Merit: 2353

it's even lower now at 28cents. But you shouldn't forget to take the "rules" of the market into account. As far as I understand, we are not taking about an announcement or a bill but an actual reserve with coins being officially held by the USA. So to be honest it doesn't look very likely to happen before end of April. It will take several months at least to be implemented IMO.

Quote

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point between January 20, 2025, ET and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

blockman

hero member

Activity: 3178

Merit: 635

Quote from: Dave1 on December 27, 2024, 05:57:46 AM

Quote from: blockman on December 27, 2024, 04:55:24 AM

Who will know, there are still remaining days for Biden and we have no idea what's on his mind. Maybe he'll leave a legacy like that or will be of good help for SBF with that debt in gratitude he has for him. So, there are those who probably are thinking like that if Biden has got some thoughts on his mind to do it.

I doubt that even if he is not in the right frame of mind, he will just pardon SBF. As said, we haven't seen it before and so Biden and his political party doesn't want to do it as the American people will scorn them if ever they do.

So as far as betting goes, I will not put a penny on it, a long shot and chance are very slim.

In any case, I will still go back to where I might have a good chance to win which is sport betting and not on politics.

Yup, there are so much for the Biden administration to do and he can just let this slide and pass on the torch to Trump to decide. So, if someone has got some spare money and they think that Biden won't pardon it, that's why the chance of winning is there that Biden will never give pardon to SBF.

Dave1

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Quote from: blockman on December 27, 2024, 04:55:24 AM

Quote from: Kemarit on December 25, 2024, 06:13:57 PM

Quote from: blockman on December 25, 2024, 05:48:33 PM

Quote from: Kemarit on December 24, 2024, 06:13:04 PM

And it looks like this right now, some controversial betting, like Biden pardoning SBF.

Should we bet that it's a no?

Nah, It will be a disaster for Biden and his political party if he pardons SBF. And we haven't seen any precedence that a Billion dollar criminal was suddenly pardon by any President in the US. But if you look at it, SBF is one of the biggest donator during Biden's time, but who knows, Grin

.

As far as political betting, I do understand the morality or ethics about those who question it. However, if you look at it as just some form or entertainment, then it's up to you whether to bet on it or not.

Who will know, there are still remaining days for Biden and we have no idea what's on his mind. Maybe he'll leave a legacy like that or will be of good help for SBF with that debt in gratitude he has for him. So, there are those who probably are thinking like that if Biden has got some thoughts on his mind to do it.

I doubt that even if he is not in the right frame of mind, he will just pardon SBF. As said, we haven't seen it before and so Biden and his political party doesn't want to do it as the American people will scorn them if ever they do.

So as far as betting goes, I will not put a penny on it, a long shot and chance are very slim.

In any case, I will still go back to where I might have a good chance to win which is sport betting and not on politics.

Botnake

hero member

Activity: 2856

Merit: 667

Quote from: JiiBs on December 25, 2024, 06:21:11 PM

Given the high level of probability on these predictions on how Trump is likely going to keep or not keep to his word and promises, taking bets here would be a tough choice. You clearly haven’t got anything to look at rather than give governance what it is and rely on Trump to be true to his word.

We’re talking about gambling here, and in this perspective, nothing comes easy. The choices are always tough. However, there’s information we can use to analyze the outcome or the market before placing a bet. That said, even with analysis, it can still boil down to a 50-50 chance. Nothing is ever guaranteed in gambling.

blockman

hero member

Activity: 3178

Merit: 635

Quote from: Kemarit on December 25, 2024, 06:13:57 PM

Quote from: blockman on December 25, 2024, 05:48:33 PM

Quote from: Kemarit on December 24, 2024, 06:13:04 PM

And it looks like this right now, some controversial betting, like Biden pardoning SBF.

Should we bet that it's a no?

Nah, It will be a disaster for Biden and his political party if he pardons SBF. And we haven't seen any precedence that a Billion dollar criminal was suddenly pardon by any President in the US. But if you look at it, SBF is one of the biggest donator during Biden's time, but who knows, Grin

.

As far as political betting, I do understand the morality or ethics about those who question it. However, if you look at it as just some form or entertainment, then it's up to you whether to bet on it or not.

Who will know, there are still remaining days for Biden and we have no idea what's on his mind. Maybe he'll leave a legacy like that or will be of good help for SBF with that debt in gratitude he has for him. So, there are those who probably are thinking like that if Biden has got some thoughts on his mind to do it.

o48o

legendary

Activity: 3080

Merit: 1178

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: stompix on December 23, 2024, 07:10:11 AM

I have a feeling that the new hype in gambling is betting on either stupid stuff or politics, with Polymarket gaining more and more attention from bettors keen on trading prediction rather than coins. And so, in order to concentrate the decision on both polymarket and gambling on political events and stuff combined, let's talk here about those, especially since some of the best do include crypto, like betting on the chances of a Bitcoin reserve being done in less than 100 days.

Of course, the hot ones are Trump's promises:
https://polymarket.com/dashboards/trump
-cut-

Imho some of those predictions are misleading, like "Trump ends Gaza war by first 100 days?". Rules in the description doesn't even mention that US or trump should be involved in the process.
What if the cease fire happens despite Trump wanting to annihilate Palestina before it? Outcome would falsely credit trump for the peace.

Same goes to "Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?". Seriously? Trump would get credit from that outcome even if he had nothing to do with that.

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

Quote from: Dr.Bitcoin_Strange on December 25, 2024, 08:37:24 AM

Quote from: stompix on December 23, 2024, 07:10:11 AM

Is anyone taking bets here, buying options, thinking about giving it a chance or even creating his own market?

I have not even logged into the website before and I don't have intentions of betting there. My favorite type of gambling is on sports games which I already have a favorite bookie am using for that.

You have sports on Polymarket too:
https://polymarket.com/sports/live
Not as many but still enough for a daily quick fun bet, so what would be the disadvantages that prevent you tfrom rying them?

Quote from: Yaunfitda on December 26, 2024, 02:29:05 AM

Yes, political betting is not a thing, and authorities doesn't like it because it's like those gamblers are almost right all the time, just like in Trump winning the US election and everyone from around the world bet on Trump winning.

Authorities don't like political betting because it was restricted by the Federal Wire Act of 1961, that's 63 yers ago an has nothing to do with trump.

Betting on politics was all the rage in the 1870-1930
https://www.uvm.edu/~awoolf/classes/fall2004/election/Historical_Presidential_Betting_Markets.pdf

Quote

The extent of activity in the presidential betting markets of this time was
astonishingly large. For brief periods, betting on political outcomes at the Curb
Exchange in New York would exceed trading in stocks and bonds. Crowds formed
in the financial district—on the Curb or in the lobby of the New York Stock
Exchange—and brokers would call out bid and ask odds as if trading securities. In
presidential races such as 1896, 1900, 1904, 1916 and 1924, the New York Times, Sun and
World provided nearly daily price quotations from early October until Election Day

Yaunfitda

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Activity: 2870

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Quote from: dansus021 on December 25, 2024, 11:37:06 PM

Well Polymarket now is the hot sites that I knew had been written on all media platforms because first the CEO FBI raids home and seizes phone of Polymarket founder https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/nov/13/fbi-raid-polymarket-founder-trump-election

and all the noise because the politic gambling now a thing hahaha/

I hear it and see lot of people gamble on trump word heck the gamble start even before hi become the president and the market is crazy because it touched million dollar in the pot on a single game.

IOf you see this https://polymarket.com/event/trump-administration?tid=1735187775132 ho will be part of Trump's Administration? that already $3,401,145 Vol. Shocked

Yes, political betting is not a thing, and authorities doesn't like it because it's like those gamblers are almost right all the time, just like in Trump winning the US election and everyone from around the world bet on Trump winning. But in the US it looks like very close but at the end of the day, bettors was correct after all. And it's a billion dollar business now for the owner and maybe they will file all charges including tax evasion. However, there are reports that the volume of Poly went down hard after the US election. So most likely this is a temporary lull and then bettors going into sports betting right now.

dansus021

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Activity: 2156

Merit: 983

Part of AOBT - English Translator to Indonesia

Well Polymarket now is the hot sites that I knew had been written on all media platforms because first the CEO FBI raids home and seizes phone of Polymarket founder https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/nov/13/fbi-raid-polymarket-founder-trump-election

and all the noise because the politic gambling now a thing hahaha/

I hear it and see lot of people gamble on trump word heck the gamble start even before hi become the president and the market is crazy because it touched million dollar in the pot on a single game.

IOf you see this https://polymarket.com/event/trump-administration?tid=1735187775132 ho will be part of Trump's Administration? that already $3,401,145 Vol. Shocked

Weawant

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Activity: 798

Merit: 509

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Honestly why all of this is beginning to gain so much Credence in the gambling space is beginning to be something to really bother about because at some point I just couldn't understand why will issues of the state like this become an object to gamble over meanwhile we know how these issues shapens the society and some persons in their bid to be relevant would want to go get statistical information from thw data they will get from this predictions and it may in a way affect how people will think about the society when they see his data and that may spark reactions even before these things are implemented and this reactions could aswell further affect the implications, so there's actually so much to these things that we should make light.

JiiBs

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Merit: 106

🌀 Cosmic Casino

Quote from: Botnake on December 23, 2024, 10:11:10 AM

That prediction works a lot like betting odds in sports, it can be overvalued or undervalued. The key is to find a market where you think you can correctly pick the winner. Now that the market is about Bitcoin, I actually like it because it’s a topic we’ve been discussing here a lot. It means we’ve already come across various opinions that we can consider and use in our analysis, and that is the edge we have over the others.

It’s a difficult to go on with for a bet given that, politics haven’t got any active role in sports betting which clearly this isn’t, neither is it a casino too but we many at times find it in the sportsbook.

Given the high level of probability on these predictions on how Trump is likely going to keep or not keep to his word and promises, taking bets here would be a tough choice. You clearly haven’t got anything to look at rather than give governance what it is and rely on Trump to be true to his word.

Kemarit

legendary

Activity: 3080

Merit: 1353

Quote from: blockman on December 25, 2024, 05:48:33 PM

Quote from: Kemarit on December 24, 2024, 06:13:04 PM

Quote from: blockman on December 24, 2024, 02:13:46 PM

Quote from: Text on December 24, 2024, 05:58:13 AM

I remember there was a similar platform to this one, it's called Futuur. I don't know if others still remember it especially those who promoted it before and those who had accounts there and engaged by making their predictions not just about politics but on any category like science, business, finance, and many others.

I think its gaining momentum because they merge gambling with strategy but they also expose how subjective decision-making can make or break trust.

I remember them, are they still in operation? these prediction markets seems to have a lot of interest from our co bettors.
This type of betting is becoming a trend and many are having fun with all of these predictions that they are giving to the community plus with the bet that they have.

Yes, they are: 🔮 Futuur - Predict the Future! 🔮.

Polymarket though hits differently, specially in political events that's why they become well know specially on the Trump winning the US election and a lot of people all over the world making money. Although there could be some manipulation as well if someone will deliberate make a FUD on some events.

https://polymarket.com/

Thanks. This is what's good with the internet and global market, everyone is involve with the money that circulates in the online gambling industry. Even the physical gamblers like this much because it's very comfortable.

Quote from: Kemarit on December 24, 2024, 06:13:04 PM

And it looks like this right now, some controversial betting, like Biden pardoning SBF.

Should we bet that it's a no?

Nah, It will be a disaster for Biden and his political party if he pardons SBF. And we haven't seen any precedence that a Billion dollar criminal was suddenly pardon by any President in the US. But if you look at it, SBF is one of the biggest donator during Biden's time, but who knows, Grin

.

As far as political betting, I do understand the morality or ethics about those who question it. However, if you look at it as just some form or entertainment, then it's up to you whether to bet on it or not.

Baofeng

legendary

Activity: 2576

Merit: 1655

Quote from: nelson4lov on December 25, 2024, 05:54:49 PM

That's the benefit that Polymarket provides vs other gambling platforms. Polymarket is essential a prediction market which is. Being a decentralized platform means that anyone can just connect their wallet and create their own market — truly permissionless and that's a gambler's paradise. I reckon we would see more and more markets that spans even beyond politics and Trump.

Yeah, Polymarket attack is very different, it's gambling + political events rolled into one. And with that, for sure there are a lot of non-gamblers but loves politics and so they go and bet on that platform. Same for us gamblers, we love those kind of odds that are being offered and that's why Poly is a hit.

Although they are not under the microscope because of the Trump winning the election and then many people won big.

Polymarket ‘whale’ raked in $85M on Trump win — millions more than previously reported.

nelson4lov

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Activity: 2310

Merit: 832

🌀 Cosmic Casino

That's the benefit that Polymarket provides vs other gambling platforms. Polymarket is essential a prediction market which is. Being a decentralized platform means that anyone can just connect their wallet and create their own market — truly permissionless and that's a gambler's paradise. I reckon we would see more and more markets that spans even beyond politics and Trump.

blockman

hero member

Activity: 3178

Merit: 635

Quote from: Kemarit on December 24, 2024, 06:13:04 PM

Quote from: blockman on December 24, 2024, 02:13:46 PM

Quote from: Text on December 24, 2024, 05:58:13 AM

I remember there was a similar platform to this one, it's called Futuur. I don't know if others still remember it especially those who promoted it before and those who had accounts there and engaged by making their predictions not just about politics but on any category like science, business, finance, and many others.

I think its gaining momentum because they merge gambling with strategy but they also expose how subjective decision-making can make or break trust.

I remember them, are they still in operation? these prediction markets seems to have a lot of interest from our co bettors.
This type of betting is becoming a trend and many are having fun with all of these predictions that they are giving to the community plus with the bet that they have.

Yes, they are: 🔮 Futuur - Predict the Future! 🔮.

Polymarket though hits differently, specially in political events that's why they become well know specially on the Trump winning the US election and a lot of people all over the world making money. Although there could be some manipulation as well if someone will deliberate make a FUD on some events.

https://polymarket.com/

Thanks. This is what's good with the internet and global market, everyone is involve with the money that circulates in the online gambling industry. Even the physical gamblers like this much because it's very comfortable.

Quote from: Kemarit on December 24, 2024, 06:13:04 PM

And it looks like this right now, some controversial betting, like Biden pardoning SBF.

Should we bet that it's a no?

danherbias07

legendary

Activity: 3346

Merit: 1134

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

I like that one option where Trump will release Ross William Ulbricht in his 100 first day after inauguration. He promised that and I hope he will not be a liar to tell it is impossible to let him go. This will boost the crypto industry and will probably hype Bitcoin after he does it. The next winner to me is the last option. Pardoning a protestor will also probably give him a good name in the public after he does it.
Still, I won't be joining the betting game because I don't like to be a part of shaking the political events in my lifetime. Also I condone those betting events because I think it is too much for the supporters of both sides.

Dr.Bitcoin_Strange

hero member

Activity: 854

Merit: 554

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: stompix on December 23, 2024, 07:10:11 AM

Is anyone taking bets here, buying options, thinking about giving it a chance or even creating his own market?

I have not even logged into the website before and I don't have intentions of betting there. My favorite type of gambling is on sports games which I already have a favorite bookie am using for that. Poly market prediction is mostly on political and social and environmental events and it's due to the US presidential election that made the site to start gaining more recognition which I believe that the population of its customers can not compare with some casinos and bookies. In my country, there's no body speaking about poly market, I wouldn't even know about it if not for this forum.

Topic: Polymarket bets of Trump's promises and other politics (Read 586 times)