Polymarket bets of Trump's promises and other politics - page 2.

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

Quote from: fruktik on December 24, 2024, 11:22:37 PM

Has a new direction appeared in betting? Political betting? Seriously? Have we even lived to see this moment? Wow, I feel like this will soon become a real trend in the world of betting.

Political betting has always been a thing, it was even bigger than today with options being actually traded on exchanges:
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2012/10/25/163610752/americans-bet-211-million-on-the-presdiential-election-in-1916

Quote from: Haunebu on December 25, 2024, 06:44:31 AM

They just aren't as popular as the big sports markets and probably never will be since they are different in several key areas.

They can't be as popular as most are held once every 4 years, and even if we count local elections and senate it still falls way short of what a gambler needs, the other factor is the time needed for settling such a thing, unlike a normal football game it ain't over in 90 minutes. But other than that they are doing pretty fine.

Haunebu

hero member

Activity: 3318

Merit: 989

www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games

Quote from: fruktik on December 24, 2024, 11:22:37 PM

Has a new direction appeared in betting? Political betting? Seriously? Have we even lived to see this moment? Wow, I feel like this will soon become a real trend in the world of betting. I see more and more information about this. People are really ready to bet money on such events.

Political betting has always been a thing which is why I don't really understand what you are saying here. Other similar markets such as awards events betting etc have been available too for a long time now.

They just aren't as popular as the big sports markets and probably never will be since they are different in several key areas.

cryptomaniac_xxx

hero member

Activity: 1344

Merit: 540

Quote from: fruktik on December 24, 2024, 11:22:37 PM

Can we really expect a new subscription campaign to appear on the forum soon? )) What? It's a good option to create a good source of traffic to the resource polymarket. Has a new direction appeared in betting? Political betting? Seriously? Have we even lived to see this moment? Wow, I feel like this will soon become a real trend in the world of betting. I see more and more information about this. People are really ready to bet money on such events.

It should be the opposite though, if there is some projects out there that need to market here, it should be the competitor of Polymarket as Poly is already huge and well known even before the Trump prediction.

There are a lot of competitors by Poly and for now they haven't get close to what Poly has been this year. But if they wanted to get exposed and be bet by gamblers, then they should be the one having a campaign here and see how they can improved or even get to the numbers of bettors on Poly market right now.

Sithara007

legendary

Activity: 3346

Merit: 1352

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Polymarket needs to have a new bet on Trump's planned annexation of Grønland (he may rename that island as something like Yugeland), and also on the re-annexation of the Panama Canal Zone. Apart from the possibility of Bitcoin strategic reserve, this is something interesting IMO. Although a lot of people claim that Trump is not being very serious about this, I have the opposite opinion. Remember 1803 and 1867? Both the times, land purchases (obviously made against the wishes against native populations of that time), were heavily criticized by the Americans. But look at the situation now. How many of the US citizens want to give back Alaska to the Russians, and Greater Louisiana to France?

mammusu

hero member

Activity: 1442

Merit: 502

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: SUPERSAIAN on December 24, 2024, 05:52:37 PM

Polymarket is really going somewhere different. Normally, you can bet on anything, no matter how ridiculous it is, it is still a bet. I don't know if there was a platform where similar bets were made before, but recently, betting has been evolving towards this. So it is definitely interesting that it makes people guess from daily life, from science to politics or from different areas. I wonder where it will go.

Compared from other gambling platforms that exist today, Polymarket is indeed a platform that is different from other platforms today, using blockchain technology, Polymarket offers high transparency and security on their site, but actually many bets that I think are not logical are bet on the platform, not only gambling, sains, politics, even every user allows to bet on various events in the futuresuch as nuclear war, so I think it is really far beyond logic and immoral at all.

Sithara007

legendary

Activity: 3346

Merit: 1352

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: Natalim on December 24, 2024, 11:24:33 PM

It always depends on personal preference. For me, I’ve tried betting on decentralized prediction markets before (though not this one). Before placing my bet, I always check the bookies to see the standard odds. However, it can get complicated because the odds in decentralized markets fluctuate based on the flow of money. This opens the door for whales to manipulate the odds, which can result in the odds we like dropping as the game gets closer. Sometimes, they even go lower than the bookies’ odds, meaning we lose value with a smaller payout. I’m not so sure if this is still how it works with Polymarket, but I think they follow a similar concept.

Both the categories have their own merits and demerits. For me, decentralized gambling sites such as Polymarket works better. But there were times in the recent past, where I got better odds with Stake.com. That said, volatility is an issue with Polymarket. Look at the odds for Presidential election. Trump was at 45% on one day, and the next day, his probability suddenly increased to 60%. And this pattern was noticed with other bets as well. With established sites, such sharp changes usually doesn't occur.

Darker45

legendary

Activity: 2576

Merit: 1860

I'm now beginning to become interested again in the prediction market. I might create an account on Polymarket one of these days. I used to make bets in this kind of market years ago actually, but on a different platform.

As it appears, with how wide the coverage of this market is, it's probably easy to spot a nice prediction to bet on. Not just about politics, of course.

As to the Bitcoin strategic reserve to be realized in Trump's first 100 days, I might bet on no.

Natalim

hero member

Activity: 3164

Merit: 611

BTC to the MOON in 2019

Quote from: Sithara007 on December 24, 2024, 10:35:42 PM

In normal gambling enterprises, the odds are first fixed by the "experts", and based on the number of bets from either direction they are modified later. But in case of Polymarket, odds are decided solely by the money flow from the gamblers. And I like this model, as it reduces risk for everyone. Whether it is more accurate or not, I am not too sure. Just because gamblers favor a team, or a player, or a politician to win, it is not necessary that he has the maximum probability to do so. The fact that Polymarket proved to be more accurate than opinion polls during the POTUS elections of 2024 doesn't change anything.

It always depends on personal preference. For me, I’ve tried betting on decentralized prediction markets before (though not this one). Before placing my bet, I always check the bookies to see the standard odds. However, it can get complicated because the odds in decentralized markets fluctuate based on the flow of money. This opens the door for whales to manipulate the odds, which can result in the odds we like dropping as the game gets closer. Sometimes, they even go lower than the bookies’ odds, meaning we lose value with a smaller payout. I’m not so sure if this is still how it works with Polymarket, but I think they follow a similar concept.

fruktik

hero member

Activity: 1204

Merit: 580

Can we really expect a new subscription campaign to appear on the forum soon? )) What? It's a good option to create a good source of traffic to the resource polymarket. Has a new direction appeared in betting? Political betting? Seriously? Have we even lived to see this moment? Wow, I feel like this will soon become a real trend in the world of betting. I see more and more information about this. People are really ready to bet money on such events.

Sithara007

legendary

Activity: 3346

Merit: 1352

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: OgNasty on December 24, 2024, 03:47:02 PM

Polymarket is turning into an interesting phenomenon. It was proven to be more accurate than political polls on the presidential election and now it seems to be positioning itself as a metric to measure the success of a President to get their initiatives done. I’m not sure if I like where this is going or not, but it is fascinating.

In normal gambling enterprises, the odds are first fixed by the "experts", and based on the number of bets from either direction they are modified later. But in case of Polymarket, odds are decided solely by the money flow from the gamblers. And I like this model, as it reduces risk for everyone. Whether it is more accurate or not, I am not too sure. Just because gamblers favor a team, or a player, or a politician to win, it is not necessary that he has the maximum probability to do so. The fact that Polymarket proved to be more accurate than opinion polls during the POTUS elections of 2024 doesn't change anything.

ethereumhunter

hero member

Activity: 2912

Merit: 541

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: SUPERSAIAN on December 24, 2024, 05:52:37 PM

Polymarket is really going somewhere different. Normally, you can bet on anything, no matter how ridiculous it is, it is still a bet. I don't know if there was a platform where similar bets were made before, but recently, betting has been evolving towards this. So it is definitely interesting that it makes people guess from daily life, from science to politics or from different areas. I wonder where it will go.

Yes, Polymarket is different than a common casino that we already used which we only need to connect our wallet to the site and start to place a bet. If I am not mistaken, there is a site similar with Polymarket. You can check Futuur which have so many bets you can find including politics like Polymarket. They also have their own token and have ANN here. You can check from what @Kemarit reply. Besides that, this site is online from a few years ago. Freebitco.in also gives a bet on the politics and other things.

STT

legendary

Activity: 4172

Merit: 1462

Thats really interesting because there is a crossover to poll taking surveys except this method is voluntary self directed and money based but I always take it as more valid then most polls turn out to be, literally put your money where your mouth is.

Quote

betting on the chances of a Bitcoin reserve being done in less than 100 days.

34% is wildly too high imo, grand hopes by those bettors. Many betting will be involved in crypto rather then the general population wondering what the heck is this meaning of any of the words in this sentence lol. My take on that information would be that BTC could have some negative fallout from overly hopeful buying off the back of that reserve idea. It is quite unlikely, more then those odds reflect if only because USA is not running a budget surplus but a deficit so the main accumulation is debt based in dollars. Same for the other ideas but 7% for end of war is realistic so cant dispute that one so much.

Kemarit

legendary

Activity: 3080

Merit: 1353

Quote from: blockman on December 24, 2024, 02:13:46 PM

Quote from: Text on December 24, 2024, 05:58:13 AM

I remember there was a similar platform to this one, it's called Futuur. I don't know if others still remember it especially those who promoted it before and those who had accounts there and engaged by making their predictions not just about politics but on any category like science, business, finance, and many others.

I think its gaining momentum because they merge gambling with strategy but they also expose how subjective decision-making can make or break trust.

I remember them, are they still in operation? these prediction markets seems to have a lot of interest from our co bettors.
This type of betting is becoming a trend and many are having fun with all of these predictions that they are giving to the community plus with the bet that they have.

Yes, they are: 🔮 Futuur - Predict the Future! 🔮.

Polymarket though hits differently, specially in political events that's why they become well know specially on the Trump winning the US election and a lot of people all over the world making money. Although there could be some manipulation as well if someone will deliberate make a FUD on some events.

https://polymarket.com/

And it looks like this right now, some controversial betting, like Biden pardoning SBF.

SUPERSAIAN

legendary

Activity: 2198

Merit: 1232

Polymarket is really going somewhere different. Normally, you can bet on anything, no matter how ridiculous it is, it is still a bet. I don't know if there was a platform where similar bets were made before, but recently, betting has been evolving towards this. So it is definitely interesting that it makes people guess from daily life, from science to politics or from different areas. I wonder where it will go.

Hispo

legendary

Activity: 1162

Merit: 2025

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: Text on December 24, 2024, 05:58:13 AM

I remember there was a similar platform to this one, it's called Futuur. I don't know if others still remember it especially those who promoted it before and those who had accounts there and engaged by making their predictions not just about politics but on any category like science, business, finance, and many others.

I think its gaining momentum because they merge gambling with strategy but they also expose how subjective decision-making can make or break trust.

Futuur is still a thing and it seems to be up and running, but for some reason they did not have the surge in popularity Polymarket had in this past election campaign in the United States. I assume since we are talking about two betting comps is which have market for politics events like those linked to Trump and his promises, Futuur and Polymarket are direct competitors.
Once I asked the staff of Futuur if they could share their monthly volume openly and they said (back about 9 months or so) their monthly volume was almost 30,000 dollars, which is impressive considering that is rather a niche betting website.
After all the volume created by Polymarket, Futuur also probably has seen benefits with the increase of interest of people in betting on politics, I would bet their volume doubled since the last time I asked them about it.

OgNasty

donator

Activity: 4760

Merit: 4323

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Polymarket is turning into an interesting phenomenon. It was proven to be more accurate than political polls on the presidential election and now it seems to be positioning itself as a metric to measure the success of a President to get their initiatives done. I’m not sure if I like where this is going or not, but it is fascinating.

acroman08

legendary

Activity: 2562

Merit: 1119

damn, I am surprised that there are people who believe that Donald Trump will sign a national abortion ban, do they realize how big the US is and how much chaos this will cause. also, after looking around the internet, it looks like the guy is much more lenient on abortion than what they claims to be.

blockman

hero member

Activity: 3178

Merit: 635

Quote from: Text on December 24, 2024, 05:58:13 AM

I remember there was a similar platform to this one, it's called Futuur. I don't know if others still remember it especially those who promoted it before and those who had accounts there and engaged by making their predictions not just about politics but on any category like science, business, finance, and many others.

I think its gaining momentum because they merge gambling with strategy but they also expose how subjective decision-making can make or break trust.

I remember them, are they still in operation? these prediction markets seems to have a lot of interest from our co bettors.
This type of betting is becoming a trend and many are having fun with all of these predictions that they are giving to the community plus with the bet that they have.

cabron

hero member

Activity: 2800

Merit: 595

https://www.betcoin.ag

Quote from: stompix on December 24, 2024, 07:16:33 AM

Quote from: Text on December 24, 2024, 05:58:13 AM

I remember there was a similar platform to this one, it's called Futuur.

There was an earlier one, called Augur:
https://www.newsweek.com/welcome-augur-cryptocurrency-death-market-where-you-can-bet-donald-trump-1043571

Quote from: Haunebu on December 24, 2024, 06:59:26 AM

I don't think Americans can bet on any market in Polymarket anymore thanks to the current government messing up the site recently.

Americans haven't been able to bet on if since 2022, Polymarket (which is a US-based company) lost a case on this in the US back then, they are banned from taking any bets from US citizens.

Stepping a bit outside of politics:
https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27?tid=1735042546894
Bet on the number of Musk's tweets Grin

I think the old guys in crypto still remember that Augur. They do have a token still in the market but their website is not working anymore which leads to their GitHub.

US citizens are not able to bet while most of its market is about its politics.
Elon may be tweeting a lot but it can't be more than 250 by 27. Even this kind of bet is in polymarket, really crazy. I hope Musk himself bet on this and will deliberately tweet 500 times.

passwordnow

hero member

Activity: 3206

Merit: 607

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

Quote from: AmoreJaz on December 23, 2024, 12:57:19 PM

Quote from: passwordnow on December 23, 2024, 12:55:41 PM

I remember that some sports bookies have that type of betting before but it's totally crazy and poly is on another level. Is it them that are the ones that makes these things to bet for? or it is a suggestion from a user and their other users have agreed to bet on it and so the volume has grown? I wonder if stake will have these odd type of special events that they'll categorize in politics.

I think they have seen the demand and so they find a way to include it in their betting lines. Because without the demand, they won't create such topic to bet on. Because they will check the pulse of the market, and see what are the popular discussions in the market. They can also see how many and how much bets they can get out of it.
They will surely discard those betting lines that have very minimal bettors to none as it may incur operating costs to them.

That concludes that they're looking to what people likes to bet with. And I guess that anything that they're trying to add in there with some odd titles and events, their customers are still going to flock on it and the minimum volume of bets will start at $100k. That's a lot already and as gamblers come from everywhere, that even makes them to do more of these books and titles that are monitoring a lot of political and special events globally.

Topic: Polymarket bets of Trump's promises and other politics - page 2. (Read 586 times)