Polymarket bets of Trump's promises and other politics - page 3.

stompix

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Quote from: Text on December 24, 2024, 05:58:13 AM

I remember there was a similar platform to this one, it's called Futuur.

There was an earlier one, called Augur:
https://www.newsweek.com/welcome-augur-cryptocurrency-death-market-where-you-can-bet-donald-trump-1043571

Quote from: Haunebu on December 24, 2024, 06:59:26 AM

I don't think Americans can bet on any market in Polymarket anymore thanks to the current government messing up the site recently.

Americans haven't been able to bet on if since 2022, Polymarket (which is a US-based company) lost a case on this in the US back then, they are banned from taking any bets from US citizens.

Stepping a bit outside of politics:
https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-december-20-27?tid=1735042546894
Bet on the number of Musk's tweets Grin

Haunebu

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I don't think Americans can bet on any market in Polymarket anymore thanks to the current government messing up the site recently. However, the rest of the world should be able to bet on any market provided there are no other restrictions.

Anyway, coming to Trump's promises, I would bet on him not fulfilling most or all of his promises since that's just how he is and history has proven that.

Text

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I remember there was a similar platform to this one, it's called Futuur. I don't know if others still remember it especially those who promoted it before and those who had accounts there and engaged by making their predictions not just about politics but on any category like science, business, finance, and many others.

I think its gaining momentum because they merge gambling with strategy but they also expose how subjective decision-making can make or break trust.

Sithara007

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Quote from: stompix on December 23, 2024, 07:10:11 AM

✂✂✂✂
Of course, the hot ones are Trump's promises:
https://polymarket.com/dashboards/trump

✂✂✂✂

For me, the most important one is creation of the Bitcoin reserve. And it's not just Trump. Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the creation of a Bitcoin reserve, with one million coins a few days ago. VanEck also jumped into the fray, claiming that setting up a strategic Bitcoin reserve could potentially cut US debt by 36%. And if any of these proposals go through, what will happen to the Bitcoin prices? I would assume that they would jump by anywhere from 10x to 25x. By the end of Trump's term, we can expect the BTC exchange rates to be >$1 million per coin.

AmoreJaz

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Quote from: passwordnow on December 23, 2024, 12:55:41 PM

I remember that some sports bookies have that type of betting before but it's totally crazy and poly is on another level. Is it them that are the ones that makes these things to bet for? or it is a suggestion from a user and their other users have agreed to bet on it and so the volume has grown? I wonder if stake will have these odd type of special events that they'll categorize in politics.

Quote from: GxSTxV on December 23, 2024, 11:07:02 AM

Myself, knowing that I quit gambling, I would like to invest in something about the success of this market, such as specific coins related to Polymarket, isn't it better than gambling inside this platform itself?

As long as there is a demand for these kind of bets, they'll continue to add it. And I agree that it's better if there's something like that. But anyway, the platform itself is all about predictions so expect that anything that can be guessed or predicted, they'll have it.

I think they have seen the demand and so they find a way to include it in their betting lines. Because without the demand, they won't create such topic to bet on. Because they will check the pulse of the market, and see what are the popular discussions in the market. They can also see how many and how much bets they can get out of it.
They will surely discard those betting lines that have very minimal bettors to none as it may incur operating costs to them.

passwordnow

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I remember that some sports bookies have that type of betting before but it's totally crazy and poly is on another level. Is it them that are the ones that makes these things to bet for? or it is a suggestion from a user and their other users have agreed to bet on it and so the volume has grown? I wonder if stake will have these odd type of special events that they'll categorize in politics.

Quote from: GxSTxV on December 23, 2024, 11:07:02 AM

Myself, knowing that I quit gambling, I would like to invest in something about the success of this market, such as specific coins related to Polymarket, isn't it better than gambling inside this platform itself?

As long as there is a demand for these kind of bets, they'll continue to add it. And I agree that it's better if there's something like that. But anyway, the platform itself is all about predictions so expect that anything that can be guessed or predicted, they'll have it.

BABY SHOES

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Donald Trump's victory is getting interesting... many of Trump's promises are being bet on in the Polymarket as Donald Trum's victory is quite controversial... Did Joe Biden's win in the past Polymakert offer this betting option? Or did Polymarket not exist when Joe Biden won?....

I don't bet on the Polymarket platform... It's not as common as a regular casino.

But the interesting thing is.... Donald Trump's 10 working days will end the Gaza war? I think it will be interesting because there is a lot of support from those who want the middle east war to end.

Hispo

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Quote from: Akbarkoe on December 23, 2024, 10:31:52 AM

....
But what they bring up about the policies that will be taken is interesting politically and betting, and I seem to be more and more tempted by political betting in the future, with economic issues and major policies in the US sphere.

Let us be honest: Trump as a president and politician in general is wacky. That means there are more people feeling enthusiastic in betting on what is going to happen in the United States, both in their inner policies and also in the policies they plan to apply against their adversaries and allies.
Had Joe Biden or kamala won the election, there would not be as many people looking to bet on politics, because both of them were part of the establishment, the status quo, Trump is rather unpredictable and that is what makes betting on his policies attractive for people, specially those who have been into politics for rather a long time.

I was not aware polymarket had a dedicated section on Trump and his promises, to be honest, I will take a look at it when I have got some time.
Though we must remember that since we are talking on promises of Trump, someone within his team could use privileged information in order to execute a bet just before Trump made public some of his decisions as president, we need to be careful about it.

mindrust

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Nothing surprising. Politics has always been a hot topic and people have been betting on politics for a long time. Lots of people learned about its popularity after polymarket became famous probably and I can understand that.

Long before polymarket I was making bets on freebitco.in. I made a bet on Trump’s victory in 2016 and won.

I was wondering back then why people waste their time on sports betting while politics is much more predictable and fun…

cabron

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Quote from: Betwrong on December 23, 2024, 10:38:03 AM

Quote from: stompix on December 23, 2024, 07:10:11 AM

~
Of course, the hot ones are Trump's promises:
https://polymarket.com/dashboards/trump

~

Wait, what? More than 50% chance that Trump in his first 100 days will pardon Ross Ulbricht?

I didn't know that Trump was going to commute Ross Ulbricht's sentence. I personally think that would be great. Yes, Ross deserved some time in prison for his stupid actions, but not the time he was given, that's for sure.

I feel like I'm becoming more and more pro-Trump since he won the election.

He mentioned Ross before, which is probably why this is in the polymarket. None so far tried adding Biden pardoning Hunter.

The election made polymarket the most controversial market even when there are projects alike before it. Somehow I wanted to try betting but there is more to sports betting platforms than in poly. Political events are always unsure unless you are an insider like Pelosi. If any government insiders re creating those bets, they re sure taking advantage.

bitbollo

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similar platforms were already offerings these kind of "exotic" bets.
Probably now Polymarket has the chance of a free marketing after Trump win and a better platform.
Using cryptocoins create an easy experience for all users. I will not surprised it these kind of bets will grow even with some spin offs or other platforms offering the same.

GxSTxV

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Definitely, we can say that Polymarket is the new hype in crypto gambling now and everyoneis talking about it, as bettors focus on prediction markets rather than just coins, traditional games or sportsbetting. Betting on events like Bitcoin reserves or political outcomes is gaining traction more than anytime after US elections. Truly, as you mentioned 34% chance of a Bitcoin reserve within 100 days shows the blend of crypto and speculative betting.

More people are definitely engaging in these markets, and some are even creating their own no matter if this will be prohibited later or the risks behind it. It's a unique mix of crypto and gambling, without the need of KYC process.

Myself, knowing that I quit gambling, I would like to invest in something about the success of this market, such as specific coins related to Polymarket, isn't it better than gambling inside this platform itself?

salad daging

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Actually, the bet in Polymarket's “Trump's political promise” was created by Polymarket itself or someone else made it?

Not betting in Polymarket bets to buy options, because I myself don't pay much attention to news about US politics anymore, except for the last time I saw that Trump would create a bitcoin reserve, that's all but I see the chances are still low as the picture shown.

Maybe those who like political news will be happy to buy options to bet on Polymarket.

Betwrong

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Quote from: stompix on December 23, 2024, 07:10:11 AM

~
Of course, the hot ones are Trump's promises:
https://polymarket.com/dashboards/trump

~

Wait, what? More than 50% chance that Trump in his first 100 days will pardon Ross Ulbricht?

I didn't know that Trump was going to commute Ross Ulbricht's sentence. I personally think that would be great. Yes, Ross deserved some time in prison for his stupid actions, but not the time he was given, that's for sure.

I feel like I'm becoming more and more pro-Trump since he won the election.

kotajikikox

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Quote from: Sanitough on December 23, 2024, 08:26:11 AM

Those in the market are probably betting on events that are likely to happen, so for me, I see Polymarket more like a source of news where I can check the current trends.

Is it really the best platform to check for news? A lot of these are only rumors and doesn’t really have any valid basis which is why a lot of people call the bets on polymarket stupid because they are betting on things that may not even actually happen in real life.

Quote

But if it continues to grow in popularity and eventually offers better odds for sports betting, it could definitely attract a lot more bettors.

They’d need a good system with sports betting but I would assume that they’ll continue having “stupid” bets even with sports. Probably events that so absurd it won’t even be considered as an official gambling event.

Akbarkoe

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It's getting more and more Polymarket in the availability of gambling bets, this includes the policies that Trump will bring with the US in the future, it's ridiculous what they offer to bettors.

But what they bring up about the policies that will be taken is interesting politically and betting, and I seem to be more and more tempted by political betting in the future, with economic issues and major policies in the US sphere.

Fivestar4everMVP

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Quote from: Davidvictorson on December 23, 2024, 10:14:59 AM

This goes to say one thing in my estimation and that is everything and anything can be up for betting no matter how stupid and silly it sounds. My thoughts on this is that Trump is a pretty popular person and are the people starting these prediction actually Americans? Because to the best of my knowledge unless something has changed, Polymarket bets blocked access to US customers since 2022. Secondly, if they are Americans, what is the probability that they are not going to in some way influence its outcome?

I doubt Americans aren't betting on polymarket, I mean if they are blocked, those interested among them can easily gain access to the platform through the use of VPN, since like I learnt that other day that the platform is kyc free.

On a platform that Americans are blocked from betting, and yet, over 90 percents of what is being bet on has something to do with America and her citizens, Americans will definitely influence the decisions and outcome of such predictions, since (like I said before), polymarket is said to be kyc free, so if the American use VPN to access the site, there is no way they are getting penalized in any way.
And let's not forget that polymarket was not known, until Elon Musk (an American) started posting screenshots from the platform on his X timeline during the US 2024 presidential election.

Davidvictorson

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This goes to say one thing in my estimation and that is everything and anything can be up for betting no matter how stupid and silly it sounds. My thoughts on this is that Trump is a pretty popular person and are the people starting these prediction actually Americans? Because to the best of my knowledge unless something has changed, Polymarket bets blocked access to US customers since 2022. Secondly, if they are Americans, what is the probability that they are not going to in some way influence its outcome?

Botnake

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Quote from: Fiatless on December 23, 2024, 09:56:45 AM

I don't know how trustworthy the polymaket prediction platform is. There have been accusations that they are engaging in fake wash’trading, however, it has not been proven true. They are also under investigation by The Federal Bureau of Investigation which led to the house of its CEO Shayne Coplan being raided by operatives. Although it might be a politically motivated witch hunt because of its close accuracy in predicting the US elections. I don't have interest in some of the bets they offer, maybe it might change in the future.

That prediction works a lot like betting odds in sports, it can be overvalued or undervalued. The key is to find a market where you think you can correctly pick the winner. Now that the market is about Bitcoin, I actually like it because it’s a topic we’ve been discussing here a lot. It means we’ve already come across various opinions that we can consider and use in our analysis, and that is the edge we have over the others.

Jawhead999

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Quote from: stompix on December 23, 2024, 07:10:11 AM

Obviously, the weird one is the only 34% chance for the Bitcoin reserve despite the deal being made on a crypto market, so with more bitcoin enthusiasts than normal gambling.

I think it's because Jerome Powell said the FED not want to own Bitcoin, so people are thinking Trump might not able to create Bitcoin reserve because of that.

It's quite surprising many people are believe Trump will pardon Ross Ulbricht, I don't see him talking more about Ross Ulbricht after get won the election.

Quote from: Sanitough on December 23, 2024, 08:26:11 AM

Those in the market are probably betting on events that are likely to happen

More like to know analysis by average people instead of likely to happen, not all public perception will happen.

Topic: Polymarket bets of Trump's promises and other politics - page 3. (Read 586 times)