I'm not confusing anything, I think you are trying to turn this into a different argument. My question remains the same. How do you explain staking to a merchant who just wants to move his money when he wants to, but can't.
I've been watching POS coins since Peercoin was first launched and I know what its advantages are. It also has some serious drawbacks including being able to "vote" on both sides of a fork. My question is not about POS in general...its about why do you think specifically it will work with Potcoin. Is the rich list misleading? Sure. But to outright dismiss the fact that 2/3 of the entire supply is held by 100 addresses is naive. Yes there is an exchange or two in there, but most of those coins are held by people. Like I said before, the ones who are gaining the most from Potcoin switching to POS are the people who already had the most to begin with. Ending POW only served to further consolidate the money supply.
Also your point about the reduced money supply because of dormant coins is totally moot. So what if some coins are dormant. As soon as the price rises those people who are sitting on their cold wallets could easily dump their coins. In fact that's probably exactly what many of them are waiting for. Unless the coins are destroyed or inaccessible you can't just arbitrarily assume they're no longer part of the supply. If that's the case our market cap is nowhere near the number many web sites like
coinmarketcap.com quote
You are most definitely conflating and confusing issues. Just because you have been "watching" doesn't mean you have a grasp on what goes on underneath the surface.
I don't have time for an ECON101 class.
With anything in life, the longer something sits locked with no one coming or going, the greater the chance the key has been lost. Can you know that for sure? Of course not because its proving a negative. However, using a little commonsense and knowledge on how coins are typically put into cold storage tells me that the addresses with 1 or more TXs in and NO TXs out are 99% likely to be cold storage. If those coins come out of cold storage to be sold off when the price rises, thats awesome, it puts more coins into the supply to help steady the price. POS in any form is an incentive to HOLD the coins, not let them sit at an exchange ready to be sold off if/when the price is right.
What proof do you have that wallets with no spent coins are lost? other than conjecture? Cold storage is not the same as lost. Lots of people have cold storage. Its called a bank account. Also Potcoin is POSv not POS. The V stands for velocity and was designed to encourage spending, not holding. More info here:
http://agroff.github.io/posv/The voting on both sides of a fork? What? Do you understand how POS works? Do you understand that to attack a POS coin requires funds to purchase that coin for the attack, this isn't fiat where you can print a ton of fake currency and attack an economy from that angle. POS just like POW will see small forks on a regular basis, this is one of the reasons why ALL POS coins require upwards of 200 confirmations before you can move the staked coins. These forks get abandoned behind the scenes with no money lost if the code is doing its thing.
In the event of a fork, you can stake coins on both chains. You "vote" for both sides of the fork. That's how POS systems achieve consensus. Each stake is a "vote" for the correct chain. You could in theory stake coins on both branches during a fork. More info here:
http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/25743/what-are-the-downsides-of-proof-of-stake (Unfortunately I don't have a better link for this one, its only really been discussed in a few forums. There isn't a nice breakdown but its pretty self explanatory)
Reduced money supply? See the first paragraph and this, the coins that haven't been moved in over a year are likely forgot about by their owner, regardless of that, for now thats fewer coins competing for BTC or USD on the exchanges, thats in favor of demand in the supplyVdemand equation. There are 2 types of "supply", the Money Supply is the total # of coins that have been created, the "supply" in supplyVdemand is the # of coins that can be accessed on DEMAND by those looking to buy, just like any commodity supply that has been sitting on the sidelines will come online if/when the price is right, this is the market being efficient and working properly.
I have coins that haven't moved in over a year. Believe me if the price spikes people will notice, and if they forgot their coins they will certainly remember them if the price goes up. I'm just saying you shouldn't assume such a large amount of coins are forgotten or lost. How many people just forget about their money?
I am curious how you think that ending POW consolidated the supply? Do you think that the people who were mining POT started buying it? Do you think that somehow enough new miners would have come online to outweigh the bigger farms that were mining it? If we can increase demand for POT the inverse to your argument will be true, yes there will always be the large bag holders, just like any coin or currency, crypto or fiat, but there are enough coins on the exchanges that we could easily see 1k people buy 100k each, or 10k people buy 100k each, that would most definitely decentralize the supply, it will also reduce the supply while increasing demand.
Take the mining away and the only way to get coins is to buy them with something else, and from somebody else. Its a small barrier for new entry into the system because a new user now has to buy his coins from the holder who is able to replace his sold coins by staking. The large holders stake their coins and make a larger amount than anybody else, simply because they had more to start with. This one I'll admit I'm not sure about, but IMO in this scenario where new users can only buy from current holders that should raise the price, assuming there are new users coming in. But if new users stop coming in, the price will stall, and my guess is that people over time will sell, right back to large holders. I think that's where we are now, market stalled because there is no growth, and a small group of people continuing to collect coins.
Last thing to cover, you never asked why I thought this would work with POT specifically, you asked why I though POS was going to see an influx of new money. I answered this and so did @fonzerellie, but in case you missed it. Its easier to get people to support and buy a coin that pays them for having their wallet unlocked and supporting the network than one that doesn't pay you, there is also the what happens when the earnings per block are low enough that its not worth mining.
I heard both of your responses. The electricity problem fonzerellie mentioned I agree with, see my previous. But over time electricity is continuing to get cheaper and mining is getting more efficient. I don't think in the end it will be a big deal.
Yes its easier to get people to support a coin that earns them interest, but at the end of the day they want a system that works and doesn't cost them much (that doesn't just mean fees. Lost time is lost business too). Which brings me to this...you still have not answered my question, so third time I'm asking:
What do you say to people (specifically merchants) who want to be able to move their coins but can't do it because they're staking? That has always been overlooked in POS systems. Sure its great you get interest but if you actually want to use the currency? no interest for you. Or worse, they do stake the coins and then can't use them when they need them. That will frustrate people into not using this coin. Not everybody, but some. Usability should be more important than gaining interest.