Political context
A few notes about the recent history of Venezuela and its relations with the US. Most people (mostly people in crypto) know very little about South America and politics in general, so their comments tend to be improvisations inspired by what they see on TV or read on the US mainstream press (massively biased). Sorry for the poor English.
From 1998 to 2013:
- Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserve on the planet, and one of the largest reserves in gold, diamond and other metals.
- The US have a huge interest in Venezuelan resources, in particular Exxon Mobil (the company Rex Tillerson was CEO when Chavez became president of Venezuela, before becoming Trump's Secretary of State).
- Chavez first won elections in 1998 and then won elections until his death in 2013. He radically changed Venezuela, from a de-facto US colony with US puppet governments to a country with sovereign and independent policies. Chavez raised the fees for the oil companies operating in Venezuela and invested heavily in social development. The US (in particular Exxon Mobil) did not like it. All oil companies accepted the new conditions, except Exxon Mobil that decided to leave the country (losing a lot of money).
- In 2002 the US organised a military coup to overthrow the constitutional government of Chavez. The military arrested Chavez, dissolved the Congress, dissolved the Supreme Court, put a millionaire as non-elected President, starting a military dictatorship. Several people were killed by snipers in the process.
- Millions of people went on the streets to protest and part of loyal military managed to take the presidential palace, bringing Chavez back after few days. The coup had failed.
- Since then, the relations between Venezuela and US were very delicate. The US had imported oil from Venezuela for a century and Venezuela has always been very happy to sell its oil to the US and still was.
- The US still keep supporting people and movements of the Venezuelan opposition (many of them were involved in the coup) with millions of dollars. The US keep meddling and sabotaging the political process, in every way possible.
- Because of the violent hostility of the US and to avoid frauds (that were normal before Chavez), Chavez's Venezuela developed one of the most advanced and transparent electronic electoral systems in the world in early 2000s. All elections involve hundreds of international observers. Jimmy Carter, ex-US President, participated as observer in dozens of countries and declared that the Venezuelan electoral system was the best they had ever audited.
- Despite years of hostile propaganda on US media about Chavez and Venezuela (filled with a caricature of Chavez, described as a dictator without any fact supporting that), Venezuela and US companies kept trading without any major problem until 2014.
From 2013 until today:
- 2014 marks an historic collapse in oil prices: oil price had been over 100 USD for a decade and it fell to 30-40 USD in a matter of days.
- Despite all efforts to diversify the economy, Venezuela suffered for more than a century of a strong dependency on oil export.
- Oil export represented about 90% of the total Venezuelan exports in USD and about a 15-20% of its GDP.
- In 2014-2015, with the oil price collapse, Venezuela lost more than 15% of its GDP, entering in an economic crisis.
- Maduro was elected president in 2013 and won by a small margin (he was much less popular than Chavez), he was new and still unexperienced as a President, despite his long experience in the institutions, as President of the National Assembly and Foreign Minister with Chavez for many years.
- In order to exploit the weakness, Obama formally declared Venezuela a "threat for the US" in 2015. There was obviously no threat against the largest military and economic power on the planet, but that formula allowed his administration to apply "sanctions". Sanctions, as applied by the US, are completely illegal, according to the international law.
- The weakened Venezuelan economy was hammered by a strong inflation, partly due to the loss in value of the Bolivar, partly the result of a fabricated black exchange market defined through websites managed in Miami and Cucuta (Colombia).
- A massive attrition war and series of PSYOPs started in 2013-2014 (something the US applied hundreds of times in many South American countries): it's a mix of actions coordinated by Venezuelan opposition parties, some violent gangs (called "guarimbas") and terrorism funded by opposition leaders, US and Venezuelan private media propaganda, some Venezuelan private companies owned by people close to the opposition, whose representative are mostly millionaires and wealthy families.
- In this context, Venezuela started having problems in getting payments in US dollars: US banks (that control transactions through the SWIFT system) often blocked transactions and made payments difficult. This made it always more complicated for Venezuela to get US dollars to import goods, even medicines and food.
- On top of the real economic crisis, some Venezuelan companies started to participate in the sabotage by disrupting the distribution of some essential goods: you could find napkins but not toilet paper, you can find cookies but not flour, etc.
- Maduro was suffering from his political weakness that led the opposition to win the legislative elections in December 2015.
- Despite several efforts to start programs to support the population in need, the situation was complicated further by the institutional conflict between the Supreme Court and the National Assembly, because of 4 irregular deputies being nominated.
- In 2017 amid a series of peaceful protests, the most violent opposition funded gangs (called "guarimbas") start to kill and destroy with the clear goal of transforming the crisis in total chaos. The "Truth" commission reports that 176 people were killed in those violent 5 months, more than a half were not participants of the protests, most of them were killed by opposition gangs or accidents provoked by them, while blocking roads, burning cars and destroying things. 9 people were burned alive, some were lynched, some electrocuted, some killed with fire arms, about 20 belonged to security forces.
- The international media only reports stories and images that were supposed to show a terrible repression, while the Venezuelan government (also aware of the international media pressure) actually tried to contain the violence minimising the victims and only using tear gas, or rubber bullets in the worst cases. It is likely that a similar level of violence (which was created by groups of hundreds of young men armed with a mix of bats, firearms, bombs, home made bazookas, molotovs) would have produced a much worse bloodbath in any other country, certainly in a country with a militarised police like the US.
- Maduro decides to call for a new election of the Constituent Assembly, as defined by the Constitution, that would have higher powers than any other institution (including the government) and be able to legislate and finally solve the institutional conflict with the National Assembly. It would also represent a democratic way to get out from the impasse.
- Maduro's decision was very smart, probably his last chance, because it forced the opposition to throw the mask and exposed their game.
- The opposition, supported by the US and international media, started a campaign to delegitimise the election, claiming (falsely) that it was unconstitutional.
- The US and the opposition went literally crazy after Maduro's decision to call the elections. They were in a very complicated position: they would have to prepare for a democratic election, but they had just told their people that there was no democracy and the only thing to do was to take the streets to overthrow the government. There was no political program whatsoever, only a promise. Many believed it, also thanks to the media that was feeding them with many lies and hatred: violence skyrocketed. Gangs and terrorist attacks continued on a daily basis until the 30th of July, election day, disrupting the everyday life for millions of Venezuelas. The opposition did not register a single candidate, but their subversive strategy failed miserably, leaving dozens of dead people behind, losing the support of many who've witnessed the violence and the destruction, while the media kept accusing the government of every death and the whole violence.
- The Constituent Assembly got elected and was composed only by the candidates of the government parties, the opposition was absent.
- The large participation in the election represented a major victory for Maduro. Despite the opposition placing bombs, destroying or burning dozens of electoral centres, threatening voters, even killing 2 chavista candidates on election day, 8 million people managed to vote that day.
- Immediately after the election Trump imposes new sanctions, that makes it almost impossible to trade with the US.
- The violence quickly fades after the election because of the total defeat of the opposition. The Constituent Assembly literally brings the Peace, as Maduro repeats over and over again, reassuring millions of people terrorised and angry after months of guarimbas. In the following local elections, Maduro's forces get another victory in most of the States and cities, also because of the divisions within the opposition, whose supporters are now confused on the strategy to follow: terrorism, coups or democracy.
- In the last months of 2017, Maduro manages to stop the subversion and fights back with the promise of peace and recovery, winning 3 elections in quick succession and earning an unexpected, very strong political position.
Trump sanctions are the main reason why the Venezuelan government decided to create the Petro ($PTR), a way to give the Venezuelan people an anti-inflationary currency (independent from the dollar) that would also allow them to trade regardless US sanctions and US banks blockade.
Democracy in Venezuela: the elections in the last years
2013 April - Presidential Election: after Chavez death in March, elections are anticipated and Maduro wins by a small margin against millionaire Capriles
2015 December - National Assembly Election: the opposition coalition wins and gets the majority in the National Assembly
2017 July - Constituent Assembly Election: the opposition refuses to participate and the chavista forces win and get 100% of the seats
2017 October - Mayors Election: first election after several months of violence in the streets, chavista forces win in about 60% of the cities. The opposition strategy has failed
2017 December - State Governors Election: chavista forces win most of the States but lose a couple of important states like Tachira (at the border with Colombia, where the smuggling crime happens)
NEXT ELECTION: 2018 April - Presidential Election: Maduro vs ?
