As to why? Why what?
Topic: Prediction contest: when will bitcoin break $4? or will it never break $4? (Read 8153 times)
December 23, 2011, 12:42:25 PM
Keep an ear out for it, people will refer to hours after morning or hours after lunch, etc. But I've never seen it written or on clocks or anything like that. I think it's basically a lost tradition. But the idea has fascinated me for a long time. I wanted to produce a clock with only one hand and thought there might be inspiration in Thailand. But nope, everyone I asked nodded and smiled then looked at me like I was crazy.
As to why? Why what?
As to why? Why what?
December 23, 2011, 11:54:30 AM
Hey Ty Goat,
On the topic of timezones and Thailand, have you ever seen a six hour watch or clock (or gong)? I gave it an honest search in SE Asia but failed. I might exchange my left testicle for one.
... mong chao (Thai: ...โมงเช้า, [mōːŋ tɕʰáːw]) for the first half of daytime (07:00 to 12:59)
Bai ... mong (บ่าย...โมง, [bàːj mōːŋ]) for the latter half of daytime (13:00 to 18:59)
... thum (...ทุ่ม, [tʰûm]) for the first half of nighttime (19:00 to 00:59)
Ti ... (ตี..., [tīː]) for the latter half of nighttime (01:00 to 06:59)
On the topic of timezones and Thailand, have you ever seen a six hour watch or clock (or gong)? I gave it an honest search in SE Asia but failed. I might exchange my left testicle for one.
... mong chao (Thai: ...โมงเช้า, [mōːŋ tɕʰáːw]) for the first half of daytime (07:00 to 12:59)
Bai ... mong (บ่าย...โมง, [bàːj mōːŋ]) for the latter half of daytime (13:00 to 18:59)
... thum (...ทุ่ม, [tʰûm]) for the first half of nighttime (19:00 to 00:59)
Ti ... (ตี..., [tīː]) for the latter half of nighttime (01:00 to 06:59)
December 20, 2011, 10:13:25 PM
The implementation of the rule change made it IMPOSSIBLE for me to win.
What? If it had happened on the 19th then you still wouldn't have won? Or are you saying that it was impossible to have happened the day before? Or was it impossible for you to unambiguously state your bet?
Personally, I don't think you know what "impossible" means. Face it, your ambiguous bet was interpreted fairly.
December 20, 2011, 09:38:56 PM
Thanks Goat.
December 20, 2011, 03:45:35 PM
From the other thread
Wow? Really. I talk to people all the time around the world, usually limited to ten different time zones, and compete in competitions where all the times are UTC (which is the actual standard rather than GMT). I have no idea what CST is nor would I ever need to. Is that like pacific or mountain time or other versions I'd never use?
So, 10 p.m. CST, scraped in by 2 hours vs another guess in Thai local time that covered more of the day. If I split hairs, one is more correct than the other.
I've talked internationally with many foreigners through chat, pm, IM, etc.
Never once has UTC ever come up. It's more like, "What time is it where you live?"
Wow? Really. I talk to people all the time around the world, usually limited to ten different time zones, and compete in competitions where all the times are UTC (which is the actual standard rather than GMT). I have no idea what CST is nor would I ever need to. Is that like pacific or mountain time or other versions I'd never use?
So, 10 p.m. CST, scraped in by 2 hours vs another guess in Thai local time that covered more of the day. If I split hairs, one is more correct than the other.
December 20, 2011, 03:44:12 PM
I never called old engineer a scammer.
Ok, but at least you indicated it:Whether its failure to pay in a bet or failure to pay in a market transaction, scamming and dishonesty are not welcome on this forum.
(emphasis mine)Sorry if I misunderstood you - it was not my intention to put words in your mouth. You seemed to be concerned about general fairness, hence my honest question on whether you'd have acted the same if you'd have got the money.
December 20, 2011, 03:29:27 PM
As for fairness: participants which made their guess before the clarification of the rules would have had an unfair advantage because they could plausibly claim to have guessed either one of two subsequent days (depending on their timezone).
Just out of curiosity: would you still feel compelled to call old_engineer a scammer if you were in Goat's position and he in yours?
Just out of curiosity: would you still feel compelled to call old_engineer a scammer if you were in Goat's position and he in yours?
I never called old engineer a scammer. I said the statistics of the game were slanted, making it uneven and unfair. I have no problem with oldengineer outside of this situation.
December 20, 2011, 03:21:28 PM
As for fairness: participants which made their guess before the clarification of the rules would have had an unfair advantage because they could plausibly claim to have guessed either one of two subsequent days (depending on their timezone).
Just out of curiosity: would you still feel compelled to call old_engineer a scammer if you were in Goat's position and he in yours?
Just out of curiosity: would you still feel compelled to call old_engineer a scammer if you were in Goat's position and he in yours?
December 20, 2011, 02:32:54 PM
This is where you are wrong. The first guesser rule implies that the "standard" timezone is the subjective time zone...or the time zone that corresponds to each guesser. This combines both objectivity (or the syntactic rule that distributes to everyone) and subjectivity (allows for the relative position of each player). This makes it simple....the first person to post on the thread is the "first guesser." First simply refers to order...but all time zones are "present," though relative.
How would you even objectively verify in what timezone that person is? Your interpretation of the rules is counter-intuitive, and unmanageable in practice.It's not only manageable, it's quite easy.
The GMT rule also changes how the "first guesser wins" rule plays out. Before the GMT rule, the first guesser wins rule meant that you could vote the same date as somebody else. After the GMT rule, the first guesser rule meant that you could not vote the same date as someone else.
December 20, 2011, 02:28:19 PM
Ok, old engineer,
All I want to know is if you paid someone based on how 'you' interpreted the rules...
And would that person, post a confirmation to the receipt of said BTC.
All I want to know is if you paid someone based on how 'you' interpreted the rules...
And would that person, post a confirmation to the receipt of said BTC.
1Nc9H463Z3bFzyq719ogmD8DC7fyaYKAJq
3 of the coins will go towards the event for the orphans on the 23rd and the other two I will start a contest in a few days.
Sorry I keep wining guys....
10 btc sent - double stated contest amount - 'cause as I said, he mentioned orphans. Verifiable here:3 of the coins will go towards the event for the orphans on the 23rd and the other two I will start a contest in a few days.
Sorry I keep wining guys....
https://blockexplorer.com/address/1Nc9H463Z3bFzyq719ogmD8DC7fyaYKAJq
The public blockchain sure does come in handy at times like this, great for transparency and there's no need to trust me or Goat (who is likely asleep, it being 2:30AM in Thailand).
December 20, 2011, 02:14:49 PM
This is where you are wrong. The first guesser rule implies that the "standard" timezone is the subjective time zone...or the time zone that corresponds to each guesser. This combines both objectivity (or the syntactic rule that distributes to everyone) and subjectivity (allows for the relative position of each player). This makes it simple....the first person to post on the thread is the "first guesser." First simply refers to order...but all time zones are "present," though relative.
How would you even objectively verify in what timezone that person is? Your interpretation of the rules is counter-intuitive, and unmanageable in practice. December 20, 2011, 02:04:44 PM
Incidentally, the forum post time stamps are in... you guessed it: UTC time.
December 20, 2011, 01:58:58 PM
Ok, old engineer,
All I want to know is if you paid someone based on how 'you' interpreted the rules...
And would that person, post a confirmation to the receipt of said BTC.
All I want to know is if you paid someone based on how 'you' interpreted the rules...
And would that person, post a confirmation to the receipt of said BTC.
December 20, 2011, 01:57:49 PM
It is absolutely not about fairness, unless you define "fairness" as "the joint is right". Fair is doing something without bias, and if there's any biased party in this discussion it is indisputably the joint; goat would likewise not be a fair judge. As the person giving 5 (now 10) BTC away for nothing other than his good will, old_engineer is a far more impartial judge--unless you can prove that he actually knows goat and/or the joint.
December 20, 2011, 01:19:43 PM
jeeesh! how much prize money are we talking about? or is this about "being right"?
As I clearly pointed out, it is about fairness. Amount of winnings is irrelevant.
December 20, 2011, 01:16:50 PM
jeeesh! how much prize money are we talking about? or is this about "being right"?
December 20, 2011, 01:10:31 PM
The implementation of the rule change made it IMPOSSIBLE for me to win.
Actually, you would have won if it spiked yesterday. I don't see how you can deem that IMPOSSIBLE.The "first guesser" rule actually implied there is some standard timezone, otherwise you can't determine which person was first. The fact that you (randomly?) assumed it was your subjective timezone, out of the possible 40 timezones on land seems kind of arbitrary. In any international environment like this forum, it is very reasonable to assume Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) as the de facto standard, unless otherwise specified.
I'm done arguing.
This is where you are wrong. The first guesser rule implies that the "standard" timezone is the subjective time zone...or the time zone that corresponds to each guesser. This combines both objectivity (or the syntactic rule that distributes to everyone) and subjectivity (allows for the relative position of each player). This makes it simple....the first person to post on the thread is the "first guesser." First simply refers to order...but all time zones are "present," though relative.
December 20, 2011, 12:56:14 PM
The implementation of the rule change made it IMPOSSIBLE for me to win.
Actually, you would have won if it spiked yesterday. I don't see how you can deem that IMPOSSIBLE.The "first guesser" rule actually implied there is some standard timezone, otherwise you can't determine which person was first. The fact that you (randomly?) assumed it was your subjective timezone, out of the possible 40 timezones on land seems kind of arbitrary. In any international environment like this forum, it is very reasonable to assume Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) as the de facto standard, unless otherwise specified.
I'm done arguing.
December 20, 2011, 12:45:43 PM
If $4 had been reached a day earlier, and you would have been pointed out as a winner, would you have said "Oh, no, never mind actually, the moment of breaking $4 was not on that day in my timezone, so I don't want the reward"?
No, that's why there is the "first guesser" clarification in the rules. This point is irrelevant. First guesser wins in the event of a tie (i.e. multiple winners, as was the case).
The implementation of the rule change made it IMPOSSIBLE for me to win.
December 20, 2011, 12:44:48 PM
If $4 had been reached a day earlier, and you would have been pointed out as a winner, would you have said "Oh, no, never mind actually, the moment of breaking $4 was not on that day in my timezone, so I don't want the reward"?
Excellent question.
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