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Topic: Prediction contest: when will bitcoin break $4? or will it never break $4? - page 2. (Read 8153 times)

legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1020
But you didn't change your vote either, after that was specified. Nor did you specify yourself that you meant local time.

I didn't even VIEW the post again after it was specified until yesterday!

Imagine singing up with Mt. Gox, making a transaction under the premise that your commission rate is .56%.  Then, you go to bed.  2 weeks later, you go back on your account and you find, low and behold the commission rate for that transaction 2 weeks ago is 10%.  You become (naturally) pissed, because the rules of the game changed and you were not made aware of it.
This was a free contest, not a mutually-agreed upon contract.  Ambiguity was pointed out in the rules, and they were clarified in the original thread and broadcast to all participants.  Burden of checking thread falls to the participants.  I had no obligation to individually notify guessers of the clarified rules - did you really expect me to PM everyone that had guessed to see if they wanted to change their weeks-from-now guess based on the time zone clarification?  That's stupid.  No, I'm not sending you any btc.

And I sent Goat 10 btc because he mentioned orphans (which I sent before you posted your butthurt thread, FWIW - I wasn't trying to spite you).

Whether it is a free contest or not is irrelevant.

The statistical nature of the game was slanted against me due to your "rule."

It was free but unfair.

Promises are "free" too...they don't cost a thing, but breaking them is dishonest.  Yes I do expect you to PM everyone to notify them of the rule change.   PhinneusGage apparently had no problem when I raised a legitimate concern that I may forget about the thread, and thus I should be notified personally when my donations are expected.  He seemed to think this was doable.  I think it's more stupid that GMT or UTC should be the deciding factor when individual time zones make more sense.  Apparently, people in this very thread seem to be at odds over which time zone would be most appropriate anyway...some say GMT, some say UTC, and others agree with me.  Given that anyone that makes the same guess (e.g. Dec. 20th) as someone else has their guess immediately nullified due to the "first guesser" rule, the implementation of your GMT rule MADE IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR ME TO WIN.

What if, after your GMT rule, I wanted to change my guess to Dec. 20th?  Well, I wouldn't be able to do that if Goat had already guessed it.  So, your rule made it IMPOSSIBLE for me to win.
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 504
^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.
If $4 had been reached a day earlier, and you would have been pointed out as a winner, would you have said "Oh, no, never mind actually, the moment of breaking $4 was not on that day in my timezone, so I don't want the reward"?
sr. member
Activity: 387
Merit: 250
But you didn't change your vote either, after that was specified. Nor did you specify yourself that you meant local time.

I didn't even VIEW the post again after it was specified until yesterday!

Imagine singing up with Mt. Gox, making a transaction under the premise that your commission rate is .56%.  Then, you go to bed.  2 weeks later, you go back on your account and you find, low and behold the commission rate for that transaction 2 weeks ago is 10%.  You become (naturally) pissed, because the rules of the game changed and you were not made aware of it.
This was a free contest, not a mutually-agreed upon contract.  Ambiguity was pointed out in the rules, and they were clarified in the original thread and broadcast to all participants.  Burden of checking thread falls to the participants.  I had no obligation to individually notify guessers of the clarified rules - did you really expect me to PM everyone that had guessed to see if they wanted to change their weeks-from-now guess based on the time zone clarification?  That's stupid.  No, I'm not sending you any btc.

And I sent Goat 10 btc because he mentioned orphans (which I sent before you posted your butthurt thread, FWIW - I wasn't trying to spite you).
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1020
But you didn't change your vote either, after that was specified. Nor did you specify yourself that you meant local time.

I didn't even VIEW the post again after it was specified until yesterday!

Imagine singing up with Mt. Gox, making a transaction under the premise that your commission rate is .56%.  Then, you go to bed.  2 weeks later, you go back on your account and you find, low and behold the commission rate for that transaction 2 weeks ago is 10%.  You become (naturally) pissed, because the rules of the game changed and you were not made aware of it.
hero member
Activity: 482
Merit: 500
But you didn't change your vote either, after that was specified. Nor did you specify yourself that you meant local time.
He wants his cake and he wants to eat it too! I like his new thread and the, "I never checked the thread again until after I discovered I won the contest." Too bad.
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 504
^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.
But you didn't change your vote either, after that was specified. Nor did you specify yourself that you meant local time.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1020
january 21st.

you should specify the timezone so we know what day it falls under once it reaches $4.

Good point.  Might as well be GMT to be fair.
Sorry the_joint, GMT was specified in comment on Dec. 7th, per above, so goat is the winner. Congratulations, goat!!  Send me a bitcoin address either by PM on in this thread, and I'll send you your winnings.  BTC_bear - sorry, it crossed the threshold on Tuesday GMT.

Thanks all for participating!  I was kind of surprised that about 85% of guessers thought that the price would go from $3 to $4 in 3 months or less, which is an astounding 133% annual ROI.  And the majority was right, too, and I've done well with my long position, which I've half cashed out one on the way up.  And everyone that was shorting - HA HA HA!  Better luck next time. Smiley

UM WTF?!?!

I call absolute bullshit. 

GMT was specified in comment on Dec. 7th, but MY prediction was cast on Dec. 6th before that specification was made.

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
1Nc9H463Z3bFzyq719ogmD8DC7fyaYKAJq

 3 of the coins will go towards the event for the orphans on the 23rd and the other two I will start a contest in a few days.

Sorry I keep wining guys....

whining, wining, or winning?  nah, you're not a whiner!
legendary
Activity: 2352
Merit: 1064
Bitcoin is antisemitic
We are above 4. Cheers  Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 387
Merit: 250
january 21st.

you should specify the timezone so we know what day it falls under once it reaches $4.

Good point.  Might as well be GMT to be fair.
Sorry the_joint, GMT was specified in comment on Dec. 7th, per above, so goat is the winner. Congratulations, goat!!  Send me a bitcoin address either by PM on in this thread, and I'll send you your winnings.  BTC_bear - sorry, it crossed the threshold on Tuesday GMT.

Thanks all for participating!  I was kind of surprised that about 85% of guessers thought that the price would go from $3 to $4 in 3 months or less, which is an astounding 133% annual ROI.  And the majority was right, too, and I've done well with my long position, which I've half cashed out one on the way up.  And everyone that was shorting - HA HA HA!  Better luck next time. Smiley
vip
Activity: 490
Merit: 271
I do believe I chose a Monday.... If not Mistaken... Nope... I'm not.


                  1tabCzGVPEK6kCJpQhFKwpXcsdnhTXyY4


Thanks for the contest  Grin

legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1036
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1015
DUMB BEARS GETTING SLAUGHTERED!
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 500
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
bitcoin hundred-aire
Goat won my contest too.  Way to go! Cheesy

I was using Thai time as I am in Thailand. Its 11am here. Yeah I have been damned lucky hitting this. I'm massively up on bitconica:)

Where oh where are all the bears who have been bragging about being massively up on Bitcoinica?

Jumping out the 11th floor window, that's where.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
Goat won my contest too.  Way to go! Cheesy

I was using Thai time as I am in Thailand. Its 11am here. Yeah I have been damned lucky hitting this. I'm massively up on bitconica:)

Where oh where are all the bears who have been bragging about being massively up on Bitcoinica?
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1020
They asked why, I gave the reason. The other reason is you end up with 2 or more winners with different dates like we had happen. Let Old Engineer decide... not my battle.

I was about to ask why you were fighting it.

And, the "other reason" u mention doesn't exist because it states in the event of a tie-break it goes to the first guesser...which was me.
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
They asked why, I gave the reason. The other reason is you end up with 2 or more winners with different dates like we had happen. Let Old Engineer decide... not my battle.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1020
For a start the market opens and closes at 12GMT

Show me where that is implied in the OP and I will agree with you.

The bet was to make a guess what day the price would break $4, NOT what day according to GMT.
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
For a start the market opens and closes at 12GMT
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