Predictions if Bitcoin ETFs are approved - page 6.

Lucius

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Quote from: avikz on September 22, 2018, 12:53:46 PM

First understand the basics of ETF. There are several types of ETF but the major types are Physical and Synthetic. The physical ETF deals in real underlying asset, that means a physical ETF actually buys the underlying asset from the market. Whereas, a synthetic ETF usually deals in futures contracts of the underlying assets without actually buying the product from the market.

So you need to understand what kind of bitcoin ETF is actually being approved! If you see a synthetic bitcoin ETF has been approved, don't expect any impact on the market because the managing company is not going to buy any physical bitcoin. They will just buy bitcoin future contracts as an underlying asset.

However, if you see that a physical ETF has been approved, you can certainly expect a good spike in price because then physical bitcoins will be bought from the market by the managing company. It will create fresh fund inflow and increase the demand in the market.

I am not very optimistic with this ETF thing because several companies have shown their interest, but only Winklevoss ETF was the physical one. Rest all were synthetic.

It is true what you say, only physical BTC ETF can seriously affect the market, but we do not know in what way big investors will react on ETF approval. Some general opinion is that big money should enter in crypto market, but we can not be sure that this will happen. BTC ETF is just easy way to invest, but some other things need to be regulated before BTC attract big money. By the way, Winklevoss ETF was not physical - you probably think on VanEck-SolidX Bitcoin ETF.

Quote from: holzer on September 23, 2018, 12:23:36 AM

Im sure we would see a nice little run up again if an ETF was approved, but Bakkt is a bigger deal and nobody seems to care. Huh

I agree with you, Bakkt should be big thing for BTC and it is 100% sure that will certainly happen before the end of this year. Maybe the crypto community did not recognize enough the potential of this project, and I am sure many never heard for that. However we will see soon if Bakkt can make some significant changes in cryptocurrency world.

arpon11

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Quote from: munareal on September 22, 2018, 11:47:50 AM

There are several groups trying to create cryptocurrency ETFs.What will happen to the value of bitcoin if Bitcoin ETFs are approved ?

In this market we can only predicts the movements of bitcoin by it reactions. Since the issue of ETF came on board we have bitcoin reacting and it has been going down because of the disaprover. If it is approve definitely, bitcoin is going to go bullish and the bull run will last for long.

Btc_1856

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Quote from: Rune on September 24, 2018, 06:25:50 PM

I lost a huge sum being bullish on the first ETF proposal I wont make the same mistake again I am cautiously optimistic for a price spike on a ETF passing

Yes, exactly but don't expect high returns in short-term but once they start approving the ETF then definitely the price of Bitcoin will not increase fastly. ETF proposal is always good but in long-term SEC is taking some measure in order to control the frauds.

marcbitcoins

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Quote from: munareal on September 22, 2018, 11:47:50 AM

There are several groups trying to create cryptocurrency ETFs.What will happen to the value of bitcoin if Bitcoin ETFs are approved ?

Bitcoin ETF is good as it would give investors a way to invest in Bitcoin through regulated brokers, which would increase confidence. This form of investment would be insured against hacking and theft, therefore protecting investors from losses. In general, if it will be approve the the real demand will increase making the price to become expensive too as it will attract more people to invest.

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Quote from: gabmen on September 24, 2018, 01:00:51 PM

Quote from: livingfree on September 24, 2018, 02:17:47 AM

Quote from: hase0278 on September 23, 2018, 12:10:51 AM

If I were you OP, I would not expect much from ETFs since they won't impact the market that much because:

I'd like to say the same thing as well that don't expect too much with it but understand what really ETF's are. It will determine a small price pump but just like what others said that you have to know the details regarding it. Just like what's with bitcoin futures before, a lot of people doesn't have an idea about and is only thinking about the spikes. I also agree with those that said it will create a short term pump and later on we'll be back on where it used to be. Well, I don't know if SEC is playing with this they keep on delaying it.

Yeah it could very well be a simple kick to excite newbies if it does get approved but nothing like what they're expecting. It won't have a lasting significant effect that's for sure, considering that many crypto supporters aren't really in favor as well of etf.

Because of most of the newbies are only thinking that if ever ETF's would be approved there will be a rise in price.

They don't care about the other things or they don't even know what does that ETF really means. That's creating a domino effect for others so they are in favor of the ETF and only thinks that its the only hope that we've got to be able to make the price goes up again.

richminded

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Quote from: Rune on September 24, 2018, 06:25:50 PM

I lost a huge sum being bullish on the first ETF proposal I wont make the same mistake again I am cautiously optimistic for a price spike on a ETF passing

Many hype before about the ETF and I think now its over, what ever the decision is, people are already learn from this thing. Do we really need this thing? or its just another thing to hype this market. I still believe on bitcoin of course, but I don't want to feel the excitement again, so I will just wait for the final decision and I will keep on buying at a dump price of bitcoin.

Rune

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I lost a huge sum being bullish on the first ETF proposal I wont make the same mistake again I am cautiously optimistic for a price spike on a ETF passing

exstasie

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Quote from: Mobius on September 24, 2018, 12:21:13 AM

An ETF approval will start a new bull rally IMO. I think we can hit a new ATH

Why, though? Fundamentally? Approval =/= launch, and approval =/= demand.

As one example, when the CME launched BTC futures last year, the price crashed. It's all about timing.

Bull rallies are born based on supply/demand imbalance, not hype. Hype comes later, after the price is already skyrocketing. If an ETF approval comes after an accumulation period where long term supply has been absorbed, then yeah, it could spark a legitimate new bull market. But if the bear market hasn't run its course yet, I wouldn't plan on it.

Dvibes

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Maybe a pump that would not last might ensue immediately after initial ETF approval but I think it ETF alone will not necessarily attract all forms of institutional investor. I'd bet on a new technology that solves scalability issue above ETF anyday

gabmen

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Quote from: livingfree on September 24, 2018, 02:17:47 AM

Quote from: hase0278 on September 23, 2018, 12:10:51 AM

If I were you OP, I would not expect much from ETFs since they won't impact the market that much because:

I'd like to say the same thing as well that don't expect too much with it but understand what really ETF's are. It will determine a small price pump but just like what others said that you have to know the details regarding it. Just like what's with bitcoin futures before, a lot of people doesn't have an idea about and is only thinking about the spikes. I also agree with those that said it will create a short term pump and later on we'll be back on where it used to be. Well, I don't know if SEC is playing with this they keep on delaying it.

Yeah it could very well be a simple kick to excite newbies if it does get approved but nothing like what they're expecting. It won't have a lasting significant effect that's for sure, considering that many crypto supporters aren't really in favor as well of etf.

livingfree

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Quote from: hase0278 on September 23, 2018, 12:10:51 AM

If I were you OP, I would not expect much from ETFs since they won't impact the market that much because:

I'd like to say the same thing as well that don't expect too much with it but understand what really ETF's are. It will determine a small price pump but just like what others said that you have to know the details regarding it. Just like what's with bitcoin futures before, a lot of people doesn't have an idea about and is only thinking about the spikes. I also agree with those that said it will create a short term pump and later on we'll be back on where it used to be. Well, I don't know if SEC is playing with this they keep on delaying it.

Herbert2020

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Quote from: avikz on September 22, 2018, 12:53:46 PM

However, if you see that a physical ETF has been approved, you can certainly expect a good spike in price because then physical bitcoins will be bought from the market by the managing company. It will create fresh fund inflow and increase the demand in the market.

one point remains unclear though. and that is whether these companies have already bought bitcoin to back their proposal or will they only buy when the price goes up? if i am not mistaken ETF proposals suck as that of Winklewoss have already had the backing coins in their pocket so they wouldn't buy after approval. additionally even if they did buy afterwards it shouldn't affect the price since you aim to do the purchase in a way not to affect anything, possibly even buy off-the market or with some shadow orders.
lets not forget that the amount they can buy is fixed and is embedded in the proposal they can not change it. so there wouldn't be an "inflow" of funds. there will be a one time purchase then people will buy the IOUs from them while they have the coins to back it up.

another discussion would be the market reaction in which case the type of ETF wouldn't matter. the market may see the news as positive or a buy signal and start buying hence push the price up as it works with any other positive news.

bittraffic

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Quote from: olarrtt on September 22, 2018, 12:40:32 PM

Literally, ETF being approved is what everyone has been waiting for and I can assertain that for peeps that bought at 17-18k last year, they would want fast increase but there won't be that kinda rush,instead it will moon steadily.

I don't think ETF will make price move up suddenly but its going to be grow eventually more than $20k.
Those investors who had bought at such price I think had dumped their coins long time before the price dip to $10,000. but it must be good if they buy back now at least they will still have the BTC which the price possibilities are much higher.

Mobius

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An ETF approval will start a new bull rally IMO. I think we can hit a new ATH

chickenado

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Quote from: Theb on September 23, 2018, 02:26:51 PM

I see no long-term effect when Bitcoin ETFs are approve but I do agree with everyone who will say that it will create a minor price rally during the first few days/weeks when the announcement of approval is release and that is because a lot of people will see this as good news and traders (especially the whales) will use this to pump the prices up, it can be short or it can be long just what we have seen last December but to see if there will be long term positive effect on its fundamentals I doubt there will be even one.

There will be a huge demand increase from a lot of traders who used to discover how important bitcoin as an asset. Hopefully we'll be able to see the better effect on our lives, since the market tries to recover day by day yet struggles with the bearish market. Good news will spread around the globe and then it creates positive impact once this ETF will be successful and surely price increase will follow through.

rodalutor

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I do not see the connect between an ETF being approved and the price of BTC increasing. It's much like futures in that no bitcoin change hands therefore there needs to be some knock-on that causes people to buy BTC for there to be any expected increase. All I see is that less people may buy BTC because instead they can just speculate using the ETF without needing to own any actual coins.

Theb

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I see no long-term effect when Bitcoin ETFs are approve but I do agree with everyone who will say that it will create a minor price rally during the first few days/weeks when the announcement of approval is release and that is because a lot of people will see this as good news and traders (especially the whales) will use this to pump the prices up, it can be short or it can be long just what we have seen last December but to see if there will be long term positive effect on its fundamentals I doubt there will be even one.

exstasie

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Quote from: btc_angela on September 23, 2018, 01:21:58 AM

For the sake of argument, let's say SEC really approved the ETF, we might see big money flowing we might even break the 5 digit barrier again. But still the question this new money flowing in for long term or just to take advantage of the situation and the next thing we know the price goes down again? That's what I'm afraid for if ETF gets approved. We might see artificial pump that can hurt the market in the long run.

On approval, I'd expect a short-lived pump. But the pump will come from existing traders whose liquidity is already on spot exchanges, not from Wall Street or anything like that. It's still essentially a "sell the news" event and I doubt the rally will sustain into a new ATH or anything.

It's not like the ETF will be immediately launched at that time. Even if the ETF were approved tomorrow, the infrastructure still isn't there for sustainable institutional investment. I also suspect that larger institutional players would patiently wait for the opportunity to accumulate, rather than fomo'ing into a news rally.

btc_angela

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Quote from: munareal on September 22, 2018, 11:47:50 AM

There are several groups trying to create cryptocurrency ETFs.What will happen to the value of bitcoin if Bitcoin ETFs are approved ?

For the sake of argument, let's say SEC really approved the ETF, we might see big money flowing we might even break the 5 digit barrier again. But still the question this new money flowing in for long term or just to take advantage of the situation and the next thing we know the price goes down again? That's what I'm afraid for if ETF gets approved. We might see artificial pump that can hurt the market in the long run.

TwSeventh

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Quote from: avikz on September 22, 2018, 12:53:46 PM

Quote from: munareal on September 22, 2018, 11:47:50 AM

There are several groups trying to create cryptocurrency ETFs.What will happen to the value of bitcoin if Bitcoin ETFs are approved ?

First understand the basics of ETF. There are several types of ETF but the major types are Physical and Synthetic. The physical ETF deals in real underlying asset, that means a physical ETF actually buys the underlying asset from the market. Whereas, a synthetic ETF usually deals in futures contracts of the underlying assets without actually buying the product from the market.

So you need to understand what kind of bitcoin ETF is actually being approved! If you see a synthetic bitcoin ETF has been approved, don't expect any impact on the market because the managing company is not going to buy any physical bitcoin. They will just buy bitcoin future contracts as an underlying asset.

However, if you see that a physical ETF has been approved, you can certainly expect a good spike in price because then physical bitcoins will be bought from the market by the managing company. It will create fresh fund inflow and increase the demand in the market.

I am not very optimistic with this ETF thing because several companies have shown their interest, but only Winklevoss ETF was the physical one. Rest all were synthetic.

for some people that know it,they will put it this way and won't make a rash decision.
but sadly,a lot of people that joined this cryptosphere do not really understand about this at all and when that thing comes true.
no matter what is it,the price will spike in a day or two then going down slowly again,because peoples are expecting a quick money and they will shill it as much as they can to gain a profit.

Topic: Predictions if Bitcoin ETFs are approved - page 6. (Read 21958 times)