Probable position of EPL teams by the end of the season. Keep in mind that this isn't about the mathematical chances of a team reaching a certain position but, Using win probability on the left over matches, how the team is most likely going to fare.
The first, second, and third positions can change at any time as long as the gap is not too large. I believe Arsenal should have a lower win probability based on who their next opponents will be. Manchester City has surpassed almost all of the strong clubs but yeah since it was not lucky enough and it's still at the third place now.
city now only has some mediocre clubs as upcoming fixtures which can be passed easily by the big like city and it will put the city in the safe zone, whereas Arsenal has not yet faced strong clubs. We consider other factors, such as club fixtures and I would rank Arsenal lower than Manchester City coz city has easier fixtures compared to the arsenal which will face chelsea, mu and many more.
Liverpool will remain in first place if they do not have as difficult a schedule as Arsenal. I believe the Reds will win the competition this season because they have a very strong club that can perform consistently in any match.