Topic: "Prepare for deflation in 2023" - page 3. (Read 1378 times)

Fed printing of Money brought about two things, 1. price inflation, which is an increase in the price of goods and commodities, and 2. money inflation, which is printing 20% more in circulation just in one year. If at all we are close to a point where we are about to experience deflation, where FED may think of starting a quantitative easing QE, I don't see that of price inflation get solved any time soon.
Here in my country, the price of goods and services is skyrocketing and there's no sign of when it's going to be over.

This is subjective to individual country and I don't think my country is even ready for this discussion as most of the tightening policy is killing the mass literally, the increment of tax has also been a big burden to everyone and yet inflation has been a big discussion in the country which has affected every commodity you can found in the country, the services are not left out,  deflation is still far from here but perhaps the new government will find a way to make it work this time around but wait for a second, are you using same US that people are screaming on every day. 


Then was late 2020 and 2021 price surge a deceptive measure of Bitcoin price run, 2015/17 is run is entirely different from 20/21 and we expect a soon surge in 2023, I beg to differ though but perhaps you are using halving effect in play otherwise even if the SEC go BRRR, the market makers will do what they like in the end, they have always been the benefactors of the surge.

Bump. CPI is 3% for the month of June, the lowest inflation since March, 2021.

Plus a new narrative if we can call it that - Apollo's Chief Economist, Torsten Slok, says that because Federal Reserve rate hikes take 12 to 18 months before its real effects could be seen, he theorizes that a recession is a more probable result than a soft landing.

I actually thought we would see reinflation happen for June after Jerome Powell paused for that month. Perhaps now we might see deflation happen earlier than expected if Slok is right?

But aggressive QT/tightening is what the cabal behind the Federal Reserve must do to fight and control inflation, or else, the U.S. Dollar will be under the risk of hyperinflation.

The Federal Reserve's mandate is price stability, they have to have inflation under control.


I believe BRRR-Money-Printing will start as soon as something breaks. That's when Bitcoin WILL start to surge like it was during 2015 - 2017, because we already know that there's high probability that they will over-adjust in QE/expansion.

Although, Jerome Powell is indicating that the Fed might stop tightening, and pivot earlier than planned.

Deflation is always worse than inflation. Deflation means sustained decrease in prices of goods and services, can have several negative consequences on economy such as , decreased spending, reduced investment in new projects and hiring. This ultimately results in increase in unemployment which is not only bad for economy but also impacts vote bank of ruling party.

It is expected, that during deflation the both stocks and crypto markets may perform poorly.
I don't think FED will allow deflation to occur in USA, they will start printing money as soon as they detect some signs of deflation.

Many think that in 2023 there will be deflation, if this is true, of course it is a better thing than inflation which is very difficult, in my country deflation is very rare, since I was in high school and knew economics lessons and saw the economic history in my country then only deflation occurred several times in agricultural products, apart from agricultural products, this has never happened.

You didn't get the whole point, or didn't get the context. We're not talking about the "World Economy", we are talking about the Central Banks all around the world, and their financial policies. Because it's a fact that for Central Banks to control inflation, they have to reduce the money in circulation and tighten liquidity. Its effect will be lower demand, causing a deflationary cycle, which I said MIGHT happen this year. BUT Jerome Powell looks that he's going to chamge his mind from what he previously said in Jackson Hall. I thought he was going to be "a Volker". I might be wrong. He might pivot earlier than expected, and there might not be a deflationary cycle.

I think surge regarding the price of bitcoin is something that is not "just" based on world economy. I mean sure it is impacted, there is no denying that and when the economy is terrible the price goes up because if fiat is terrible then it should be good for bitcoin.

But at the same time, we should not put the price of bitcoin depending just on that, there are many other things that it gets affected by, and it could be one of those that makes it. Like some great news of some big nation making it legal tender could make the price go up suddenly, even when economy hasn't changed, as you can see the world economy is the same, but that good news could make it higher. That type of things matter.

The threat of a recession of the global economy makes us have to be vigilant, not too easy to waste money for useless things such as parties, culinary, tourism and so on, it's better to immediately prepare with investment, no problem even though the value we think is lost, and cryptocurrencies are worth us Make a portion of investment because of a large profit potential.

Is Bitcoin in an open market or not? Because the presumption is, although debatable, the Federal Reserve, and other other Central Banks, actions, ARE going to cause the Economy and almost EVERY TRADED ASSET in most open markets to surge or crash. It's a simple monetary phenomenon. If they print more money in circulation, it causes more demand = prices go up, inflation goes up. If they tighten and take money out of circulation, it lessens demand = prices go down, a deflationary cycle will come. I will admit again, that a 2015 - 2017 surge, it's debatable, but if the presumption that the Federal Reserve will over-adjust AGAIN on monetary expansion is right, then it's very possible.

The only "scaling" you care about is "dOuBlE fAsTeR hUrR dUrR" (which isn't actually considered scaling by anyone with a brain) and it should be beyond evident by now that we're not doing that at this stage.  It's not incorrect for me to tell you to be patient and stop crying like a baby.  My stance on this and LN has not changed, so you are still a liar and a cunt when you spread misinformation about me.  



Serial killers and psychopaths often make similar boasts.

@windfury
you were trying to infer that FED actions were going to cause a BITCOIN SURGE
i first responded to correct your notions of how the fiat economy works. and in later posts  that not only will there not be a bitcoin surge to the extents you imagine. but  how FED actions doent imply/cause bitcoin surge reactions

i explained what does cause bitcoin surges

you then deviated to say none of your topic was about bitcoin economy but only fed fiat economy. which i then quoted your "bitcoin surge like its 2015-7" to remind you that you stated it was about bitcoin surging

---

.. as for doomads social drama..
anyone can read his post history. including himself
that is my reference to his suggestions that LN is a bitcoin scaling solution
look at his post history. there are too many to count examples

the many many many many posts where he infers there are many scaling solutions but the devs are currently only working on LN as the main one that promises scaling right now and everyone needs to be patient if they want other options. where he pretend "only franky wants other option" (yet many topics on this forum show many many people discussing bitcoin scaling

its all researchable.

Expect the unexpected....Too many people who can't even spell "deflation" are calling for a boom with bitcoin this year in 2023. I originally expected another drop in comparison to a year of increase, and the more I read the more I see it happening. As franky1 said, who I have never once disliked a post to date, companies are reaping bond market gains when they should be going bust. This is not natural, and you can only go against nature for so long before it worsens what should have happened in the first place....and that, when the time comes, is good for bitcoin. 2024 is only making more and more sense. Retail investors get hyped and rekt in 2023 with a prolonged pullback, 2024 sets the scene for another explosive and long-term rally. Similar to what we saw in the 900 day bear of 17/18-19/20 toward the two year bull of 20-21 bull.....
...
but who are any of us to say for sure

I believe you didn't get the context, franky. Read OP. The point of the topic is the cabal of the Federal Reserve's tendency to over-adjust, which causes the boom-bust cycles in the economy.

I posted, https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.61609753

A Deflation in 2023, IF it DOES happen, what will the cabal of the Federal Reserve do based on what they have always done during the past recessionary periods? They always did QE/BRRRRR-Money-Printing which causes everything to surge and start another super cycle of bullishness.

Note that franky1 has not provided a direct quote to prove his assertions.  He is not able to provide one because I have never said what he claims.  He does a good impression of Donald Trump with the way he throws false accusations around and generally sounding like a total dumbfuck while he does it.  I don't go around telling people to trade sums over $1000 over LN.  I don't hold the view that LN is the "only" solution for scaling.  But he continues to spread disinformation about me, because franky1 is a compulsive and unrelenting liar.

@windfury
you were the one talking about
"defation in 2023"
"Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017"

my responses where about those and responded by correcting the details of your hyper expectations.. (bringing you down to a more reasonable reality of expectations)
you seem to have acknowledged not to expect bitcoin surges to the expectations you suggested in first post(well done), .. but you done so, by you deviating the narrative to be about fiat and no longer about bitcoin surge expectation

i did not derail or swerve the topic. i just noticed your swerves to avoid saying "ok logic looks like frankys expectations seem more reasonable"

so i observed the swerves and responded accordingly
dont blame me for being frank

@doomad
everyone can read you post history of the last 6 years
every "scaling bitcoin" topic you jump in saying bitcoin should not change because [insert LN advert] as the solution to scaling

many examples of it . your post history show ample examples..
but thanks for changing your narrative now(took you years, but you got there finally) to be less snake oil overhyped over promise than before. something i have been telling you for those years.

its taken you time to learn to not over commit on the empty promise
but dont back peddle now and go back to old salespitch scripts

You came in the topic, and tried to derail it, without understanding what it is truly all about? I'm disappointed franky. I thought you were smart. Read OP!


You then try to gaslight everyone into believing that the topic was swerved into something else. Newbies, did you see that? That's = franky-101.

Lies and horseshit.  LN is a viable contribution to assist with scaling for smaller sums.  It is not in-and-of-itself a "solution" and was not designed to handle large payments.

Now, either you provide a direct quote of me stating contrary to my words in this post, or you concede to being a liar and a cunt.  I'll wait.

It is difficult to predict anything with certainty , however It is possible that deflation may occur at the end of 2023 as inflation is cooling since June-22, but it will depend on variety of economic factors, such as interest rates and GDP & energy prices. I think FED may reverse its policy of money tightening , if there is a concern of deflation in economy. Governments always try their level best to avoid deflation in economy, as deflation is always worse than inflation, because it reduces economic activity and causes unemployment.

so now your "defation" is not about bitcoin.. but about a fiat "defation"

ok lets handle this new swerve to your topic you instigated

after all inflations there is always recession.. its fiats polar opposite.
they dont call it deflation they just call it the correction of inflation where there is still inflation but just at lower %
they hope to get back to 2%

for a fiat DEFLATION there would need to be true money being taken away. a minus interest.
this will be where all bank accounts instead of earning a small interest, start charging people for using banks. and where people have to hand in their $100 bank note and only get out $98 for a 2% deflation

the effect of such an event is that people start allowing more bread to be bought with less dollar needed.

but that is not what is going to happen

they just want to recess(take a break) from printing 11% more paper. and bring it down to a 2% print
i cant see a minus money clawback and destruction event happening

yes recession may feel like people have less money. but thats because there is still more then 2% being printed. but normal people are not the receivers of it. it ends up in the back pockets of institutions