Not in 2023.
The USA Long Term Care industry is a big deal
close to 3.5 trillion in assets.
Unlike any other country USa makes you buy Long Term Care insurance if you want decent care.
Alzheimer and Dementia are big in the USA due to boomers (myself included) being conned into eating high carb diets for 1950 to 1990.
So with small bond interest the LONG TERM CARE industry was dying.
I know a lot about this since my bro-in-law has Dementia and will not get better.
But he has LTC policy. So I checked them out on various rating companies.
I did this last Dec 2021. and they were rated 45% chance to go bust in 2022
I did further research and found all the companies 14 of them with 3 trillion in assets had bad ratings.
Why? they make bank in the bond market and the bond market sucked in dec 2021
well guess what. these companies rated 40 to 50 % shot to go broke in 2022 gained 500 billion due to bond rates rising.
they are now rated 30 to 40% to go broke in 2023....
My guess is at least 2023 with rates going up then flat. will add 250 to 300 million to these companies. and maybe we see a slump in 2024.
2023 interest up inflation persists.
maybe light at tunnels end in 2024.
be like JJG just DCA!
@ franky1 you must have laughed out loud at this op title. "deflation in 2023 !"
Topic: "Prepare for deflation in 2023" - page 6. (Read 1378 times)
Many economists and hedge fund managers are basically thinking we are going to repeat the 1970s. Where in 6 months we will see deflation due to a recession and what will happen is the bonds will rally along with stocks and Bitcoin because the fed will print more money.
Then it’ll be a repeat and lead to more inflation and it might be double digit this time and again fed will need to raise rates. Pretty much what happened back then. No idea if history will repeat itself exactly but most of the time it rhymes.
Then it’ll be a repeat and lead to more inflation and it might be double digit this time and again fed will need to raise rates. Pretty much what happened back then. No idea if history will repeat itself exactly but most of the time it rhymes.
there is no fiat deflation
US minimum wage is not going DOWN
its just not going up as fast
products are not getting cheaper. they are just getting expensive more slowly
deflation is your income buys you more produce
we are not going through a phase where our fiat income buys more produce
@philipma1957 below
im not shocked by another "windfuryism". i expect, now that he is proven wrong yet again, he will spout some empty insult that im just making him have mental disorders and confusion
i laugh that he thinks i can cause dementia(via gas lighting) over the internet
if his mental state is so easily altered, it shows his initial mental state is problematic even without the involvement of this forum
i have no issues with people that have mental issues. but to claim victim that someone is causing it is the laughable part.
for years now i have simply asked him to do research on a topic to know the real history, facts and data. and not cry when being proved wrong..
oh and not forgetting the title.. "defation" is not even a word.
did he mean prepare for a new years diet resolution
Many economists and hedge fund managers are basically thinking we are going to repeat the 1970s. Where in 6 months we will see deflation due to a recession and what will happen is the bonds will rally along with stocks and Bitcoin because the fed will print more money.
Then it’ll be a repeat and lead to more inflation and it might be double digit this time and again fed will need to raise rates. Pretty much what happened back then. No idea if history will repeat itself exactly but most of the time it rhymes.
Then it’ll be a repeat and lead to more inflation and it might be double digit this time and again fed will need to raise rates. Pretty much what happened back then. No idea if history will repeat itself exactly but most of the time it rhymes.
fiat will never deflate
recession does not mean deflation. recession is just calming down of excessive inflation
it just means reduced inflation
instead of 10% they want to still money print but at a 5% rate instead of 10% rate
going from 2% to 10 to 5 is not deflation, especially if they can then go 5 to 7 later.. where there will always be more creation
deflation is going from 50, 25, 12.5, always getting less and less than previous until there is no creation
recession does not mean deflation. recession is just calming down of excessive inflation
it just means reduced inflation
instead of 10% they want to still money print but at a 5% rate instead of 10% rate
going from 2% to 10 to 5 is not deflation, especially if they can then go 5 to 7 later.. where there will always be more creation
deflation is going from 50, 25, 12.5, always getting less and less than previous until there is no creation
I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.
If US inflation is 7% annually.
What effect will it have on 30 year mortgage loans?
I think the fed will be forced to raise interest rates on loans. Which could incentivize markets to seek alternative sources of credit and liquidity. In a best and worse case scenario, crypto based sources of credit and liquidity could gain higher demand due to them supplying credit and liquidity without the rising interest rates.
Raising rates could reduce competitive advantages of conventional bank loan markets. Opening the door for crypto to take prominence. Although recent history has shown markets and regulation trends have swung in directions which are far from linear.
The feds alleged brrr money printing is something I remember complaining about back in 2012. I've waited so many years for the fed money printer to go brrr. That I've reached a point where even I have a hard time believing the feds money printing might actually have an effect.
Another thing to consider is the feds money printer might go the opposite of brrr. Which could lead to credit and liquidity shortages. Those conditions might actually be worse than most of what we have seen so far.
They wouldn't print money, they would just drop the interest, which means people who got the printed money last year, that invested it into banks and interest because interest rate went up, will take their money out. Hence, during inflation there was a lot of money in the market, then interest went up, so the market had less money, then interest will go down, so market will have that money again without needing to print anything. That is a good way to arrange everything, we didn't needed all that money all that quickly, so slowly putting it out there would be a smarter way for sure.
That's obviously a statement you don't hear many people say, but if we review the history of the cabal that decides if they should implement QE or QT, the cabal has the susceptibility to over-adjust in one side causing inflation, and probably deflation after over-tightening. When one act causes an outcome, they over-adjust to stop the outcome, which causes the opposite outcome.
I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.
Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017
I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.
Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017
I think for most people deflation would be a very welcome and pleasant reversal of the recent inflation over the last couple years. Inflation was getting carried away so a couple years of similar deflation would actually just return some level of stability and hopefully more competition between different companies that will ultimately bring the price down for end buyers. As long as it doesn't turn into stagflation which Japan suffered from for a long time, which is probably unrealistic because they had a lot of economic factors conspiring against them to create that unique situation. In the ideal world the war in Ukraine would stop and allow food supplies to slowly improve, along with Russia being able to sell energy again to Europe and improving all sorts of logistic chain pricing.
Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017
We passed on a bear market for an entire year and the cycle that we believe happens is going to set a bull run. That's what we're set to believe and if the same run just as those years, it's going to be a big bull run again.But as years have seen that there could be a change which is about to come and just as you've said, the bull run might come earlier than expected.
Anyway, if it goes like that then I'm thankful but if not then that's just fine.
The Federal Reserve is now watching the markets closely, and the continuity of withdrawing liquidity for a long period will accelerate avoiding deflation. It is easy to pump liquidity, but it will make it difficult to reach “healthy” inflation during the current fiscal year.
I am afraid of what is happening in China. The last thing we are waiting to see now is the return of COVID19 with a good mutation, which means more health restrictions.
And the war that is taking place in Ukraine and the lack of control over it.
The energy crisis and its problems, especially with the European economy.
So we have enough problems to fear deflation
I am afraid of what is happening in China. The last thing we are waiting to see now is the return of COVID19 with a good mutation, which means more health restrictions.
And the war that is taking place in Ukraine and the lack of control over it.
The energy crisis and its problems, especially with the European economy.
So we have enough problems to fear deflation
That's obviously a statement you don't hear many people say, but if we review the history of the cabal that decides if they should implement QE or QT, the cabal has the susceptibility to over-adjust in one side causing inflation, and probably deflation after over-tightening. When one act causes an outcome, they over-adjust to stop the outcome, which causes the opposite outcome.
I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.
Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017
I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.
Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017
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