Topic: "Prepare for deflation in 2023" - page 5. (Read 1378 times)
Doesn't seem likely for inflation to stop in in 2023 for two reason: The central banks has essentially accepted that a recession will happen therefore they haven't tried to ease interest rates to achieve a slow landing. They aggressively hiked interest rates and accept the potential recession as a result. Second -- the state of money printing nearly every country participated in back in 2020 saw the creation of more money than the world has ever seen. This does not solve itself within just a few years.
That's obviously a statement you don't hear many people say, but if we review the history of the cabal that decides if they should implement QE or QT, the cabal has the susceptibility to over-adjust in one side causing inflation, and probably deflation after over-tightening. When one act causes an outcome, they over-adjust to stop the outcome, which causes the opposite outcome.
I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.
Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017
I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.
Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017
A possible deflation can create negative scenarios for Bitcoin as well, because Bitcoin is also in a subset of the economy concept. The idea of thinking of Bitcoin as an asset independent of all external factors seems a bit of a misconception to me. If it is snowing outside, the house does not get warm easily.
I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.
Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017
Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017
They can't print more money as this would increase inflation even further. The only real solution for the FED at the moment is to keep increasing interest rates and try to contain the inflation. Only once the inflation is brought down they can focus on economics growth again. A recession could happen in 2023 but doesn't seem so likely, because when all the prices are rising then so are wages and whole economic output is going to be inflated. Number will be higher but in real terms, the value is not going up. We will probably see a rise in Bitcoin prices again in 2023 but the rise is going to be moderate first in my opinion. People are still scared to invest large amounts of money. At least in my country most investors still hold large sums of cash in their portfolio, even though it's the worst type of asset to hold during high inflation periods. It will probably take until 2024 and the next halving to prices really rally again.
Please get the context of the topic. I'm NOT saying the cabal will do it RIGHT NOW, I'm merely saying that they're response from their overadjustment WILL BE another overadjustment. franky1 is right, there has always been inflation, and in the current cycle, it may have already peaked. But if anyone believes that the inflation numbers we saw last year would be the highest, then it's laughable. We'll probably experience something worse in ten years.
Furthermore, CPI print is lower month on month, and the rate of inflation is also declining year on year. That might be the first signs that a cycle of deflation might be coming during 2023.
I think the fed will be forced to raise interest rates on loans. Which could incentivize markets to seek alternative sources of credit and liquidity. In a best and worse case scenario, crypto based sources of credit and liquidity could gain higher demand due to them supplying credit and liquidity without the rising interest rates.
Raising rates could reduce competitive advantages of conventional bank loan markets. Opening the door for crypto to take prominence. Although recent history has shown markets and regulation trends have swung in directions which are far from linear.
They have been raising interest rates since last year, but the impact on crypto industry has been very negative. Theoretically you are right, and the demand for crypto lending services should have increased, as they don't add charge extra interest rates like traditional banks are doing, however, it didn't happen. Some could argue it is because crypto is too volatile, so in every cases bitcoin and altcoins aren't going to be benefited by an increasement on the demand for crypto loans. Probably only stablecoins will, although for bitcoin investors it's insignificant. Raising rates could reduce competitive advantages of conventional bank loan markets. Opening the door for crypto to take prominence. Although recent history has shown markets and regulation trends have swung in directions which are far from linear.
They can't print more money as this would increase inflation even further. The only real solution for the FED at the moment is to keep increasing interest rates and try to contain the inflation. Only once the inflation is brought down they can focus on economics growth again. A recession could happen in 2023 but doesn't seem so likely, because when all the prices are rising then so are wages and whole economic output is going to be inflated. Number will be higher but in real terms, the value is not going up. We will probably see a rise in Bitcoin prices again in 2023 but the rise is going to be moderate first in my opinion. People are still scared to invest large amounts of money. At least in my country most investors still hold large sums of cash in their portfolio, even though it's the worst type of asset to hold during high inflation periods. It will probably take until 2024 and the next halving to prices really rally again.
They won't, and not to just prevent inflation but they already did so much and that money is not in the market yet. I feel like the best thing about 2023 will be the fact hat everyone and everything is going back to normal.People are not aware of this just yet, but believe me when I say this, from 2022 1st of January to 31st of December 2023, the best year will be 2023. No pandemic, no "new" wars, maybe even a resolved one hopefully, and no big economic crisis, everything just on the path to be better. That means we should be living a great year, not the best year ever, but the best year in a while, closer to 2019 at the very least, and that should be great.
I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.
Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017
Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017
They can't print more money as this would increase inflation even further. The only real solution for the FED at the moment is to keep increasing interest rates and try to contain the inflation. Only once the inflation is brought down they can focus on economics growth again. A recession could happen in 2023 but doesn't seem so likely, because when all the prices are rising then so are wages and whole economic output is going to be inflated. Number will be higher but in real terms, the value is not going up. We will probably see a rise in Bitcoin prices again in 2023 but the rise is going to be moderate first in my opinion. People are still scared to invest large amounts of money. At least in my country most investors still hold large sums of cash in their portfolio, even though it's the worst type of asset to hold during high inflation periods. It will probably take until 2024 and the next halving to prices really rally again.
The Federal Reserve is now watching the markets closely, and the continuity of withdrawing liquidity for a long period will accelerate avoiding deflation. It is easy to pump liquidity, but it will make it difficult to reach “healthy” inflation during the current fiscal year.
I am afraid of what is happening in China. The last thing we are waiting to see now is the return of COVID19 with a good mutation, which means more health restrictions.
And the war that is taking place in Ukraine and the lack of control over it.
The energy crisis and its problems, especially with the European economy.
So we have enough problems to fear deflation
The problem is that almost no one is optimistic about the economic development in 2023. Many people are looking at austerity. Such sentiment will affect many people. The collective consciousness is very bleak. The unemployment rate is too high. Is COVID19 really over? I don’t think so. I am afraid of what is happening in China. The last thing we are waiting to see now is the return of COVID19 with a good mutation, which means more health restrictions.
And the war that is taking place in Ukraine and the lack of control over it.
The energy crisis and its problems, especially with the European economy.
So we have enough problems to fear deflation
ok quick lesson
M1=coins and notes.. this is going down
M2=coins notes and demand deposits(debit/credit cards) this is small decrease due to M1
(counting just debit credit cards(electronic payments see a rise)
M3=coins notes demand deposits and savings accounts, money market deposits this is increasing
(counting just a savings accounts would see a larger rise compared to debit cards)
(counting just money markets accounts would see an even larger rise compared to savings)
money supply is always increasing. just the form and where it is can become the mystery to some
so ill reveal the secret..
less coins and banknotes but more being put in the savings accounts and money markets
money printing still occurs, people still use credit cards, people still take mortgages there is still more money being created and the supply still increases.. all you proved is less people want to mess around with paper bank note forms of money
M1=coins and notes.. this is going down
M2=coins notes and demand deposits(debit/credit cards) this is small decrease due to M1
(counting just debit credit cards(electronic payments see a rise)
M3=coins notes demand deposits and savings accounts, money market deposits this is increasing
(counting just a savings accounts would see a larger rise compared to debit cards)
(counting just money markets accounts would see an even larger rise compared to savings)
money supply is always increasing. just the form and where it is can become the mystery to some
so ill reveal the secret..
less coins and banknotes but more being put in the savings accounts and money markets
money printing still occurs, people still use credit cards, people still take mortgages there is still more money being created and the supply still increases.. all you proved is less people want to mess around with paper bank note forms of money
I'm merely talking about M2 because it's what's being used as a key economic indicator to forecast inflation. I'm talking about it in terms of their rules, franky1, not yours.
Plus I'm also talking about a cycle of deflation based Year on Year on M2.
as for the windfuryism that he thinks there will be an event of a 60x (2015:$333-2017:$20k) in 2023..
There you are again, trying to disinform and gaslight people into believing your lies. Have I said of 60x event in 2023? IN 2023? Haha. Newbies only need to look at your trust rating to know.
I said in 2023 there will be a period of deflation, which means there will be low demand and maybe NEAR ZERO
We hope that this year the bull run will happen again, because in the past year we have all gone through difficult times for the crypto market, and the economic crisis is increasingly felt, for now the Federal Reserve is making big plans so that the current economic downturn can be resolved, although many predict that the bull run will not happen this year but if it is increasingly depressed then a price jump in the value of the crypto will occur immediately so that the deplation will not occur In a very long time, then we have to prepare ourselves so that there are big things that happen later that will not be missed.
Everyone wants to be happy in the current economy and the only good way is to have the economy reset to normal sacred line! No deflation and inflation but just a normal line for the economy and every countries growing slowly and steadily. I think things have been pretty rough since past 4 years. Since pandemic the decline started and few countries went for war and sanctions causing it massive after effect on the global economy.
The problem is, we are now having the child play and with the time this won't be good. There is no way people will start accepting the bitcoin just like that. If this situation persist like this, forget about the up surge, people will start selling their deposits for living optimum life!
The problem is, we are now having the child play and with the time this won't be good. There is no way people will start accepting the bitcoin just like that. If this situation persist like this, forget about the up surge, people will start selling their deposits for living optimum life!
I don't think that there's going to be a deflation in the USA(or global deflation). I expect a slightly lower inflation in 2023, maybe around 10-15%.
There are too many factors, which are pushing the prices up, fuel costs, global supply chain disruptions, the COVID wave in China.
Having higher interest rates in the USA means that many companies might decide to move their business in America. More investments in the industry would mean higher industrial production and more jobs. I don't really think that 2023 would be such a "doom&gloom" year for the USA.
There are too many factors, which are pushing the prices up, fuel costs, global supply chain disruptions, the COVID wave in China.
Having higher interest rates in the USA means that many companies might decide to move their business in America. More investments in the industry would mean higher industrial production and more jobs. I don't really think that 2023 would be such a "doom&gloom" year for the USA.
Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017
Oh, if only I had the spare cash to buy bitcoin like it was 2015! I don't know if the cause-and-effect relationship you described between the Fed's actions and bitcoin's price action is correct, but we've seen periods where bitcoin is completely stagnant for months and then breaks out like an olympic track runner, usually to the upside. Right now it looks like bitcoin kinda-sorta wants to break past $17k; I think that regardless of what the Fed does, once people get over the FTX disaster (and the last few debacles like Terra) bitcoin's going to skyrocket.No one has any idea about the exact timing, especially in the case of Bitcoin but there are a few things that can give you a little guess as to how Bitcoin is going to move. Although that is mostly just a guess. If accurate statistics were always available then all those involved with Bitcoin over the years would never have experienced losses, I mean for trading and holding. If we think in general then it can be seen that when the price of Bitcoin skyrockets, the common holder or people don't have that much Bitcoin. and it's not just you, there are many others who wish they could hoard some bitcoins for a chance like in 2015. But I don't think Bitcoin will ever go down like it did in 2015.
Time frame: Who knows?
I agree with you, but no one can say anything for sure about timing, because bitcoin can change movement for many reasons. And many times the timing cannot be determined because of these rapid movement changes.
as for the windfuryism that he thinks there will be an event of a 60x (2015:$333-2017:$20k) in 2023..
he is mistaken by about a 10x (meaning expect a modest 6x max instead, if the right speculative triggers are pulled)
there were 3 events in 2016 and 2017 thats caused the price of 2017 to be 60x higher then 2015
and those 3 events over a 3 year period.. which are not going to happen in 2023
(2015-16)firstly mining transitioned from a 1.2thash(s5) to 14thash(s9)
(2016)then there was the halvening.
(2017)then there was the speculation of the protocol change and late re-valuation from halving costs
none of which similar events are really things to have happened or about to occur in 2023
when you look at the value premium window of underlying bitcoin trade window of $10k-$75k 2021
2022 sees a $15k -$90k potential of trade speculation market window
so unless hashrate becomes extremely alot more then it is now to stimulate people wanting to buy bitcoin above $XYZk
most people wont want to buy above $100k based on current value window
yes we might see a potential speculated amount somewhere in the $15k-$90k zone if the right speculation triggers occur. meaning maybe upto 6x
but no way will we see a 60x of $900k in 2023
he is mistaken by about a 10x (meaning expect a modest 6x max instead, if the right speculative triggers are pulled)
there were 3 events in 2016 and 2017 thats caused the price of 2017 to be 60x higher then 2015
and those 3 events over a 3 year period.. which are not going to happen in 2023
(2015-16)firstly mining transitioned from a 1.2thash(s5) to 14thash(s9)
(2016)then there was the halvening.
(2017)then there was the speculation of the protocol change and late re-valuation from halving costs
none of which similar events are really things to have happened or about to occur in 2023
when you look at the value premium window of underlying bitcoin trade window of $10k-$75k 2021
2022 sees a $15k -$90k potential of trade speculation market window
so unless hashrate becomes extremely alot more then it is now to stimulate people wanting to buy bitcoin above $XYZk
most people wont want to buy above $100k based on current value window
yes we might see a potential speculated amount somewhere in the $15k-$90k zone if the right speculation triggers occur. meaning maybe upto 6x
but no way will we see a 60x of $900k in 2023
I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.
Wait a sec. I thought the money printing never stopped in the first place. Are you saying the Fed actually took a breather?Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017
Oh, if only I had the spare cash to buy bitcoin like it was 2015! I don't know if the cause-and-effect relationship you described between the Fed's actions and bitcoin's price action is correct, but we've seen periods where bitcoin is completely stagnant for months and then breaks out like an olympic track runner, usually to the upside. Right now it looks like bitcoin kinda-sorta wants to break past $17k; I think that regardless of what the Fed does, once people get over the FTX disaster (and the last few debacles like Terra) bitcoin's going to skyrocket.Time frame: Who knows?
here is the way i see the economics of the last year 5 years (2019-2023)
fiat inflates always.. and it did in 2019 even before certain events did during and did after. just differing rates
due to many things(2020-2021), such as people returning to work after covid, no longer subsidised by stimulus cheques and also entering(2022) a new economy of eastern europe war affecting supply chains. the fiat market swung into a new direction.. not deflation but inflation and yes it was already in inflation but a new higher direction of inflation.
businesses knew it would see energy prices and supply of produce prices rise which meant companies would need to stock pile stuff at early 2022 prices to be ready and not pay out more in 2023
to they sold all their shares stocks and investments to be cashflow heavy to stockpile their materials needed for late 2022-23
they are now in a position to just produce and start filling their pockets with sales, to then re-invest in the investments they dropped in early 2022
this will then as a sidenote, slow down the inflation back into the direction it would have gone
// 2023
// 2022
/ / 2021
| / 2020
// 2019
fiat inflates always.. and it did in 2019 even before certain events did during and did after. just differing rates
due to many things(2020-2021), such as people returning to work after covid, no longer subsidised by stimulus cheques and also entering(2022) a new economy of eastern europe war affecting supply chains. the fiat market swung into a new direction.. not deflation but inflation and yes it was already in inflation but a new higher direction of inflation.
businesses knew it would see energy prices and supply of produce prices rise which meant companies would need to stock pile stuff at early 2022 prices to be ready and not pay out more in 2023
to they sold all their shares stocks and investments to be cashflow heavy to stockpile their materials needed for late 2022-23
they are now in a position to just produce and start filling their pockets with sales, to then re-invest in the investments they dropped in early 2022
this will then as a sidenote, slow down the inflation back into the direction it would have gone
// 2023
// 2022
/ / 2021
| / 2020
// 2019
Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017
This shouldn't be a surprise for most investors. Most of us are really looking forward for bullish soon (may be 2024 precisely)
Ever since I had an elementary idea of inflation and deflation as regards the economy. I had always been scared of inflation and it has been inflation hitting the economy. I have never witnessed any deflation.
But in theory I was told that deflection is worse than inflation.
I so much want to witness deflation because from the definition I believe it's more acceptable than inflation.
You are such an economist or a financial analyst. If your proposal is what really happens why do government keep printing money?
But in theory I was told that deflection is worse than inflation.
I so much want to witness deflation because from the definition I believe it's more acceptable than inflation.
They wouldn't print money, they would just drop the interest, which means people who got the printed money last year, that invested it into banks and interest because interest rate went up, will take their money out. Hence, during inflation there was a lot of money in the market, then interest went up, so the market had less money, then interest will go down, so market will have that money again without needing to print anything. That is a good way to arrange everything, we didn't needed all that money all that quickly, so slowly putting it out there would be a smarter way for sure.
You are such an economist or a financial analyst. If your proposal is what really happens why do government keep printing money?
ok quick lesson
M1=coins and notes.. this is going down
M2=coins notes and demand deposits(debit/credit cards) this is small decrease due to M1
(counting just debit credit cards(electronic payments see a rise)
M3=coins notes demand deposits and savings accounts, money market deposits this is increasing
(counting just a savings accounts would see a larger rise compared to debit cards)
(counting just money markets accounts would see an even larger rise compared to savings)
money supply is always increasing. just the form and where it is can become the mystery to some
so ill reveal the secret..
less coins and banknotes but more being put in the savings accounts and money markets
money printing still occurs, people still use credit cards, people still take mortgages there is still more money being created and the supply still increases.. all you proved is less people want to mess around with paper bank note forms of money
M1=coins and notes.. this is going down
M2=coins notes and demand deposits(debit/credit cards) this is small decrease due to M1
(counting just debit credit cards(electronic payments see a rise)
M3=coins notes demand deposits and savings accounts, money market deposits this is increasing
(counting just a savings accounts would see a larger rise compared to debit cards)
(counting just money markets accounts would see an even larger rise compared to savings)
money supply is always increasing. just the form and where it is can become the mystery to some
so ill reveal the secret..
less coins and banknotes but more being put in the savings accounts and money markets
money printing still occurs, people still use credit cards, people still take mortgages there is still more money being created and the supply still increases.. all you proved is less people want to mess around with paper bank note forms of money
fiat will never deflate
recession does not mean deflation. recession is just calming down of excessive inflation
it just means reduced inflation
instead of 10% they want to still money print but at a 5% rate instead of 10% rate
going from 2% to 10 to 5 is not deflation, especially if they can then go 5 to 7 later.. where there will always be more creation
deflation is going from 50, 25, 12.5, always getting less and less than previous until there is no creation
recession does not mean deflation. recession is just calming down of excessive inflation
it just means reduced inflation
instead of 10% they want to still money print but at a 5% rate instead of 10% rate
going from 2% to 10 to 5 is not deflation, especially if they can then go 5 to 7 later.. where there will always be more creation
deflation is going from 50, 25, 12.5, always getting less and less than previous until there is no creation
Zoomed out to the maximum, it doesn't deflate, BUT there could be cycles of deflation possible, especially if the cabal behind the Federal Reserve over-adjusts with QT.
Percentage Change, Year on Year illustrates that the money supply is dropping. It's currently -0.70%. It's possible that inflation rate will drop quickly too, probably near ZERO PERCENT by June, 2023, and deflation by the end of the year.
Quote
I know it's debatable, it's also laughable to discuss "deflation" in the middle of an inflationary period, but I'm the stupid one.
the central bank of course will not allow this to happen, because inflation is better than deflation .. deflation has a worse effect than inflation, where there will be many products whose value decreases,,, layoffs in factories due to lack of demand, etc., it will destroy the economy and printing money is not a solution because this problem will be more complex and have a longer effect
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