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Topic: Proving that my gambling script works. (Read 1848 times)

hero member
Activity: 1624
Merit: 645
March 05, 2018, 06:48:29 PM
At the beginning, you may get something like 2 Heads and 3 Tails. It may go to 4 Heads and 8 Tails, maybe even 10 Heads and 20 Tails. Does this mean that tails will always be more than heads? No. The more flips you do, the more likely it is that the numbers will regress to the mean (50/50). You may start with 10 H and 20 T and end up with 4050 H and 4100 T. With infinite flips, you will hit a 50/50 ratio every time.

This is correct1, but inapplicable to your script (or any other gambling method, for that matter).

In an infinite sequence of fair coins flips, the proportion of heads or tails will tend towards 50% with a probability of 1. However, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 flips being all heads or all tails, even if an infinitie number of flips would be 50/50. Taking a gambling script, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 runs being all wins or all loses.



1. Technically, when talking about infinite sets, having a probability of 1 is the not the same as saying something will surely happen. Instead, we use the term almost surely. Although interesting, irrelevant to this discussion.


Imagine it this way. There are nine green balls, and one red ball in a bag. Every time you pick a green ball, you win a dollar. Every time you pick a red ball, you lose ten dollars. At the beginning of the game, there is a pretty good likelihood that you will make a couple dollars, maybe 3-4 (or 5-6 if you're ballsy). But, if you play for too long, you are guaranteed to go bankrupt. In the long run, you will have a balance of negative infinity dollars. Does it make more sense now?

No it doesn't because it doesn't matter. You always have a 90% and a 10% chance of getting a green or a red ball respectively no matter if it's the beginning or not. What if I play 10 bets and they are all wins and I stop playing for 1 day and comeback, is that a new beginning now? Can I use the method again? What determines the ''beginning''?

Ah, there's a point I can't refute. You are totally right. But in my empirical evidence, if I gamble a bit with customer deposits and stop at 20-30-40% profit, it works out well. I don't really know why, but hey, it works! Maybe I just got lucky. Good thing I stopped using/selling the script eh


Well I give you props for admitting it and you probably should be locking this thread, it's getting repetitive.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1000
March 05, 2018, 06:17:58 PM
No, not how it works. For example, say you're tossing a coin and counting the number of heads and tails appear.

At the beginning, you may get something like 2 Heads and 3 Tails. It may go to 4 Heads and 8 Tails, maybe even 10 Heads and 20 Tails. Does this mean that tails will always be more than heads? No. The more flips you do, the more likely it is that the numbers will regress to the mean (50/50). You may start with 10 H and 20 T and end up with 4050 H and 4100 T. With infinite flips, you will hit a 50/50 ratio every time.

In the same way, the more bets you make, the more likely you are to lose money. With a fixed BR, the beginning can be profitable, but given infinite time and infinite money, you will lose all of it. That's just how it works.

You can't use the example as coin toss because in coin toss game, there is only 2 possibilities either head or tail but in dice games it has too many possibilities, like xx.xx which is different one number is already much difference with it

And btw you already know that it is not profitable in the end, I am not saying about dice games yet which is having some house edge but you said that about 50/50 chance games and you still want to prove to everyone that you are going to profit with your script? This is unreasonable thing that you are saying
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
March 05, 2018, 12:39:51 PM
If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-

Yet you insisted - and you still do! - that it's profitable in short term, once a day, math doesn't apply to it, and other bullshit like that. Nice backpedaling, not going to work though. You're a genuine, honest-to-God, bona fide scammer.


YOU are completely wrong, suchmoon.


Since math "mumbo" jumpo does not apply to alia, s/he/it is 110% scammer...   more than genuine and more than bona fide.  Just MOAR than more.   Shocked
jr. member
Activity: 56
Merit: 115
Lowest EVER interest lending! (Use escrow always)
March 05, 2018, 11:00:00 AM
If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-

Yet you insisted - and you still do! - that it's profitable in short term, once a day, math doesn't apply to it, and other bullshit like that. Nice backpedaling, not going to work though. You're a genuine, honest-to-God, bona fide scammer.

Do you mean bona fide as in "geniune" or "without intention to deceive"? Because only one is true

edit: just read the rest of the sentence. well no, if I wanted to scam, I would've 1) taken customer deposits and 2) kept aTriz's 2k but whatever!

Yes, you could have done a bigger scam. Fortunately you got caught, unfortunately that seems to be due to your gambling addiction. I hope you get better.

Yes. Your whole account is just a scam waiting to happen. 1000+ BTC exit scam. Right? Right?

Stop making baseless allegations made from thin air, loser. Your stupidity makes me want to go to bed... goodnight
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
March 05, 2018, 10:55:53 AM
If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-

Yet you insisted - and you still do! - that it's profitable in short term, once a day, math doesn't apply to it, and other bullshit like that. Nice backpedaling, not going to work though. You're a genuine, honest-to-God, bona fide scammer.

Do you mean bona fide as in "geniune" or "without intention to deceive"? Because only one is true

edit: just read the rest of the sentence. well no, if I wanted to scam, I would've 1) taken customer deposits and 2) kept aTriz's 2k but whatever!

Yes, you could have done a bigger scam. Fortunately you got caught, unfortunately that seems to be due to your gambling addiction. I hope you get better.
jr. member
Activity: 56
Merit: 115
Lowest EVER interest lending! (Use escrow always)
March 05, 2018, 10:48:08 AM
If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-

Yet you insisted - and you still do! - that it's profitable in short term, once a day, math doesn't apply to it, and other bullshit like that. Nice backpedaling, not going to work though. You're a genuine, honest-to-God, bona fide scammer.

Do you mean bona fide as in "geniune" or "without intention to deceive"? Because only one is true

edit: just read the rest of the sentence. well no, if I wanted to scam, I would've 1) taken customer deposits and 2) kept aTriz's 2k but whatever!
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
March 05, 2018, 10:43:24 AM
If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-

Yet you insisted - and you still do! - that it's profitable in short term, once a day, math doesn't apply to it, and other bullshit like that. Nice backpedaling, not going to work though. You're a genuine, honest-to-God, bona fide scammer.
jr. member
Activity: 56
Merit: 115
Lowest EVER interest lending! (Use escrow always)
March 05, 2018, 09:25:39 AM
TL:DR for the last 9 pages:

Maybe I just got lucky.

Thanks for putting up with me. Guess you were right all along!

I'll still keep trying to win my way to bankruptcy getting 21 million BTC
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 18711
March 05, 2018, 09:22:35 AM
TL:DR for the last 9 pages:

Maybe I just got lucky.
jr. member
Activity: 56
Merit: 115
Lowest EVER interest lending! (Use escrow always)
March 05, 2018, 09:07:10 AM
At the beginning, you may get something like 2 Heads and 3 Tails. It may go to 4 Heads and 8 Tails, maybe even 10 Heads and 20 Tails. Does this mean that tails will always be more than heads? No. The more flips you do, the more likely it is that the numbers will regress to the mean (50/50). You may start with 10 H and 20 T and end up with 4050 H and 4100 T. With infinite flips, you will hit a 50/50 ratio every time.

This is correct1, but inapplicable to your script (or any other gambling method, for that matter).

In an infinite sequence of fair coins flips, the proportion of heads or tails will tend towards 50% with a probability of 1. However, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 flips being all heads or all tails, even if an infinitie number of flips would be 50/50. Taking a gambling script, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 runs being all wins or all loses.



1. Technically, when talking about infinite sets, having a probability of 1 is the not the same as saying something will surely happen. Instead, we use the term almost surely. Although interesting, irrelevant to this discussion.


Imagine it this way. There are nine green balls, and one red ball in a bag. Every time you pick a green ball, you win a dollar. Every time you pick a red ball, you lose ten dollars. At the beginning of the game, there is a pretty good likelihood that you will make a couple dollars, maybe 3-4 (or 5-6 if you're ballsy). But, if you play for too long, you are guaranteed to go bankrupt. In the long run, you will have a balance of negative infinity dollars. Does it make more sense now?

No it doesn't because it doesn't matter. You always have a 90% and a 10% chance of getting a green or a red ball respectively no matter if it's the beginning or not. What if I play 10 bets and they are all wins and I stop playing for 1 day and comeback, is that a new beginning now? Can I use the method again? What determines the ''beginning''?

Ah, there's a point I can't refute. You are totally right. But in my empirical evidence, if I gamble a bit with customer deposits and stop at 20-30-40% profit, it works out well. I don't really know why, but hey, it works! Maybe I just got lucky. Good thing I stopped using/selling the script eh
hero member
Activity: 1624
Merit: 645
March 05, 2018, 09:01:42 AM
At the beginning, you may get something like 2 Heads and 3 Tails. It may go to 4 Heads and 8 Tails, maybe even 10 Heads and 20 Tails. Does this mean that tails will always be more than heads? No. The more flips you do, the more likely it is that the numbers will regress to the mean (50/50). You may start with 10 H and 20 T and end up with 4050 H and 4100 T. With infinite flips, you will hit a 50/50 ratio every time.

This is correct1, but inapplicable to your script (or any other gambling method, for that matter).

In an infinite sequence of fair coins flips, the proportion of heads or tails will tend towards 50% with a probability of 1. However, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 flips being all heads or all tails, even if an infinitie number of flips would be 50/50. Taking a gambling script, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 runs being all wins or all loses.



1. Technically, when talking about infinite sets, having a probability of 1 is the not the same as saying something will surely happen. Instead, we use the term almost surely. Although interesting, irrelevant to this discussion.


Imagine it this way. There are nine green balls, and one red ball in a bag. Every time you pick a green ball, you win a dollar. Every time you pick a red ball, you lose ten dollars. At the beginning of the game, there is a pretty good likelihood that you will make a couple dollars, maybe 3-4 (or 5-6 if you're ballsy). But, if you play for too long, you are guaranteed to go bankrupt. In the long run, you will have a balance of negative infinity dollars. Does it make more sense now?

No it doesn't because it doesn't matter. You always have a 90% and a 10% chance of getting a green or a red ball respectively no matter if it's the beginning or not. What if I play 10 bets and they are all wins and I stop playing for 1 day and comeback, is that a new beginning now? Can I use the method again? What determines the ''beginning''?
jr. member
Activity: 56
Merit: 115
Lowest EVER interest lending! (Use escrow always)
March 05, 2018, 08:57:01 AM
At the beginning, you may get something like 2 Heads and 3 Tails. It may go to 4 Heads and 8 Tails, maybe even 10 Heads and 20 Tails. Does this mean that tails will always be more than heads? No. The more flips you do, the more likely it is that the numbers will regress to the mean (50/50). You may start with 10 H and 20 T and end up with 4050 H and 4100 T. With infinite flips, you will hit a 50/50 ratio every time.

This is correct1, but inapplicable to your script (or any other gambling method, for that matter).

In an infinite sequence of fair coins flips, the proportion of heads or tails will tend towards 50% with a probability of 1. However, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 flips being all heads or all tails, even if an infinitie number of flips would be 50/50. Taking a gambling script, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 runs being all wins or all loses.



1. Technically, when talking about infinite sets, having a probability of 1 is the not the same as saying something will surely happen. Instead, we use the term almost surely. Although interesting, irrelevant to this discussion.


Imagine it this way. There are nine green balls, and one red ball in a bag. Every time you pick a green ball, you win a dollar. Every time you pick a red ball, you lose ten dollars. At the beginning of the game, there is a pretty good likelihood that you will make a couple dollars, maybe 3-4 (or 5-6 if you're ballsy). But, if you play for too long, you are guaranteed to go bankrupt. In the long run, you will have a balance of negative infinity dollars. Does it make more sense now?
hero member
Activity: 1624
Merit: 645
March 05, 2018, 08:55:35 AM
At the beginning, you may get something like 2 Heads and 3 Tails. It may go to 4 Heads and 8 Tails, maybe even 10 Heads and 20 Tails. Does this mean that tails will always be more than heads? No. The more flips you do, the more likely it is that the numbers will regress to the mean (50/50). You may start with 10 H and 20 T and end up with 4050 H and 4100 T. With infinite flips, you will hit a 50/50 ratio every time.

This is correct1, but inapplicable to your script (or any other gambling method, for that matter).

In an infinite sequence of fair coins flips, the proportion of heads or tails will tend towards 50% with a probability of 1. However, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 flips being all heads or all tails, even if an infinitie number of flips would be 50/50. Taking a gambling script, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 runs being all wins or all loses.



1. Technically, when talking about infinite sets, having a probability of 1 is the not the same as saying something will surely happen. Instead, we use the term almost surely. Although interesting, irrelevant to this discussion.


Yes, I don't know why this thread is still here, it's clear that op does not understand basic math. The beginning can be profitable just like it can be not profitable.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 18711
March 05, 2018, 08:45:55 AM
At the beginning, you may get something like 2 Heads and 3 Tails. It may go to 4 Heads and 8 Tails, maybe even 10 Heads and 20 Tails. Does this mean that tails will always be more than heads? No. The more flips you do, the more likely it is that the numbers will regress to the mean (50/50). You may start with 10 H and 20 T and end up with 4050 H and 4100 T. With infinite flips, you will hit a 50/50 ratio every time.

This is correct1, but inapplicable to your script (or any other gambling method, for that matter).

In an infinite sequence of fair coins flips, the proportion of heads or tails will tend towards 50% with a probability of 1. However, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 flips being all heads or all tails, even if an infinitie number of flips would be 50/50. Taking a gambling script, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 runs being all wins or all loses.



1. Technically, when talking about infinite sets, having a probability of 1 is the not the same as saying something will surely happen. Instead, we use the term almost surely. Although interesting, irrelevant to this discussion.
jr. member
Activity: 56
Merit: 115
Lowest EVER interest lending! (Use escrow always)
March 05, 2018, 06:42:34 AM
people pointed out the obvious (a script can never be long-term profitable,
It cannot be reasonably concluded that any betting strategy, including those done with a script can be reliably profitable in the short term


a fact I had stated many times).
I would dispute this.

If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-
"one of" being the key words in that statement...

Title of the thread '' proving my gambling script WORKS''
First reply of aria: it doesn't work it's EV-
A few replies later: I will prove everyone wrong
And so on and so on, quite contradictory statements throughout the whole thread.

EV-, in the long run, holy shit. It is always profitable at the beginning.

There is no such thing as expected positive value in the beginning that turns into an expected negative value in the long term, it's either positive or negative all the way otherwise how does the script even know it's the beginning? No matter how many millions of bets you have done the next bet is literally like the first one, you don't have more or less chances of anything, it's the same.

No, not how it works. For example, say you're tossing a coin and counting the number of heads and tails appear.

At the beginning, you may get something like 2 Heads and 3 Tails. It may go to 4 Heads and 8 Tails, maybe even 10 Heads and 20 Tails. Does this mean that tails will always be more than heads? No. The more flips you do, the more likely it is that the numbers will regress to the mean (50/50). You may start with 10 H and 20 T and end up with 4050 H and 4100 T. With infinite flips, you will hit a 50/50 ratio every time.

In the same way, the more bets you make, the more likely you are to lose money. With a fixed BR, the beginning can be profitable, but given infinite time and infinite money, you will lose all of it. That's just how it works.
hero member
Activity: 1624
Merit: 645
March 05, 2018, 05:44:41 AM
people pointed out the obvious (a script can never be long-term profitable,
It cannot be reasonably concluded that any betting strategy, including those done with a script can be reliably profitable in the short term


a fact I had stated many times).
I would dispute this.

If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-
"one of" being the key words in that statement...

Title of the thread '' proving my gambling script WORKS''
First reply of aria: it doesn't work it's EV-
A few replies later: I will prove everyone wrong
And so on and so on, quite contradictory statements throughout the whole thread.

EV-, in the long run, holy shit. It is always profitable at the beginning.

There is no such thing as expected positive value in the beginning that turns into an expected negative value in the long term, it's either positive or negative all the way otherwise how does the script even know it's the beginning? No matter how many millions of bets you have done the next bet is literally like the first one, you don't have more or less chances of anything, it's the same.
hero member
Activity: 1659
Merit: 687
LoyceV on the road. Or couch.
March 05, 2018, 05:01:00 AM
EV-, in the long run, holy shit. It is always profitable at the beginning.
The expected value is negative on all bets, whether you win or lose doesn't matter for this.
jr. member
Activity: 56
Merit: 115
Lowest EVER interest lending! (Use escrow always)
March 05, 2018, 04:48:51 AM
people pointed out the obvious (a script can never be long-term profitable,
It cannot be reasonably concluded that any betting strategy, including those done with a script can be reliably profitable in the short term


a fact I had stated many times).
I would dispute this.

If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-
"one of" being the key words in that statement...

Title of the thread '' proving my gambling script WORKS''
First reply of aria: it doesn't work it's EV-
A few replies later: I will prove everyone wrong
And so on and so on, quite contradictory statements throughout the whole thread.

EV-, in the long run, holy shit. It is always profitable at the beginning.
hero member
Activity: 1624
Merit: 645
March 05, 2018, 04:19:46 AM
people pointed out the obvious (a script can never be long-term profitable,
It cannot be reasonably concluded that any betting strategy, including those done with a script can be reliably profitable in the short term


a fact I had stated many times).
I would dispute this.

If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-
"one of" being the key words in that statement...

Title of the thread '' proving my gambling script WORKS''
First reply of aria: it doesn't work it's EV-
A few replies later: I will prove everyone wrong
And so on and so on, quite contradictory statements throughout the whole thread.
copper member
Activity: 2996
Merit: 2374
March 05, 2018, 02:36:30 AM
people pointed out the obvious (a script can never be long-term profitable,
It cannot be reasonably concluded that any betting strategy, including those done with a script can be reliably profitable in the short term


a fact I had stated many times).
I would dispute this.

If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-
"one of" being the key words in that statement...
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