Pages:
Author

Topic: Proving that my gambling script works. - page 7. (Read 1849 times)

jr. member
Activity: 56
Merit: 115
Lowest EVER interest lending! (Use escrow always)
March 02, 2018, 06:52:03 AM
#52
Yeah it fails 1 in 10 times by my estimate. And, I will run it for ten days, once a day, just for proof, aiming for a 20% ROI daily. If it fails more than 1 time, I will admit to being a scammer and fuck off forever. But, the script works. Wait 10 days and you will have proof.

Except we have shown earlier in this thread that mathematically that will prove nothing.

What you're basically saying is - real life empirical proof about a script you have never seen is relevant, because you ran some irrelevant numbers about a script YOU HAVE NEVER SEEN!

Yes, that's exactly what he is saying. You said it yourself, it's EV-. What's the point of this conversation?

That's like saying we all will be dead in 100 years, so why even wake up in the morning? Why go to work? This line of logic is so, so flawed. Just because you will lose money after infinite plays doesn't mean the same thing will happen over 10 or 100 plays. That's why I stop the script when I have sufficient profit.

There is some dunning kruger going on here. It is more like saying I have a method that will make you immortal but you are going to die anyways. You claim the script works, my understanding of a strategy/script that works when gambling is a method that will make you win in the long term, otherwise it doesn't work.

''Just because you will lose money after infinite plays doesn't mean the same thing will happen over 10 or 100 plays.'' But why do I need your script, though? Why does anyone need it? I might as well just use my own stupid strategy and say the same thing.

Because mine works, and I have made and paid money for and to investors. Anyway, I am no longer selling the script. I'm just going to prove it works, then I'll gtfo. Remember all those who accused me of being a scammer and realise that you should never trust them again.
hero member
Activity: 1624
Merit: 645
March 02, 2018, 06:43:03 AM
#51
Yeah it fails 1 in 10 times by my estimate. And, I will run it for ten days, once a day, just for proof, aiming for a 20% ROI daily. If it fails more than 1 time, I will admit to being a scammer and fuck off forever. But, the script works. Wait 10 days and you will have proof.

Except we have shown earlier in this thread that mathematically that will prove nothing.

What you're basically saying is - real life empirical proof about a script you have never seen is relevant, because you ran some irrelevant numbers about a script YOU HAVE NEVER SEEN!

Yes, that's exactly what he is saying. You said it yourself, it's EV-. What's the point of this conversation?

That's like saying we all will be dead in 100 years, so why even wake up in the morning? Why go to work? This line of logic is so, so flawed. Just because you will lose money after infinite plays doesn't mean the same thing will happen over 10 or 100 plays. That's why I stop the script when I have sufficient profit.

There is some dunning kruger going on here. It is more like saying I have a method that will make you immortal but you are going to die anyways. You claim the script works, my understanding of a strategy/script that works when gambling is a method that will make you win in the long term, otherwise it doesn't work.

''Just because you will lose money after infinite plays doesn't mean the same thing will happen over 10 or 100 plays.'' But why do I need your script, though? Why does anyone need it? I might as well just use my own stupid strategy and say the same thing.
jr. member
Activity: 56
Merit: 115
Lowest EVER interest lending! (Use escrow always)
March 02, 2018, 06:33:39 AM
#50
Yeah it fails 1 in 10 times by my estimate. And, I will run it for ten days, once a day, just for proof, aiming for a 20% ROI daily. If it fails more than 1 time, I will admit to being a scammer and fuck off forever. But, the script works. Wait 10 days and you will have proof.

Except we have shown earlier in this thread that mathematically that will prove nothing.

What you're basically saying is - real life empirical proof about a script you have never seen is relevant, because you ran some irrelevant numbers about a script YOU HAVE NEVER SEEN!

Yes, that's exactly what he is saying. You said it yourself, it's EV-. What's the point of this conversation?

That's like saying we all will be dead in 100 years, so why even wake up in the morning? Why go to work? This line of logic is so, so flawed. Just because you will lose money after infinite plays doesn't mean the same thing will happen over 10 or 100 plays. That's why I stop the script when I have sufficient profit.
hero member
Activity: 1624
Merit: 645
March 02, 2018, 06:29:47 AM
#49
Yeah it fails 1 in 10 times by my estimate. And, I will run it for ten days, once a day, just for proof, aiming for a 20% ROI daily. If it fails more than 1 time, I will admit to being a scammer and fuck off forever. But, the script works. Wait 10 days and you will have proof.

Except we have shown earlier in this thread that mathematically that will prove nothing.

What you're basically saying is - real life empirical proof about a script you have never seen is relevant, because you ran some irrelevant numbers about a script YOU HAVE NEVER SEEN!

Yes, that's exactly what he is saying. You said it yourself, it's EV-. What's the point of this conversation?
jr. member
Activity: 56
Merit: 115
Lowest EVER interest lending! (Use escrow always)
March 02, 2018, 06:27:32 AM
#48
Yeah it fails 1 in 10 times by my estimate. And, I will run it for ten days, once a day, just for proof, aiming for a 20% ROI daily. If it fails more than 1 time, I will admit to being a scammer and fuck off forever. But, the script works. Wait 10 days and you will have proof.

Except we have shown earlier in this thread that mathematically that will prove nothing.

What you're basically saying is - real life empirical proof about a script you have never seen is relevant, because you ran some irrelevant numbers about a script YOU HAVE NEVER SEEN!
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 18748
March 02, 2018, 06:26:06 AM
#47
Yeah it fails 1 in 10 times by my estimate. And, I will run it for ten days, once a day, just for proof, aiming for a 20% ROI daily. If it fails more than 1 time, I will admit to being a scammer and fuck off forever. But, the script works. Wait 10 days and you will have proof.

Except we have shown earlier in this thread that mathematically that will prove nothing.
jr. member
Activity: 56
Merit: 115
Lowest EVER interest lending! (Use escrow always)
March 02, 2018, 06:17:18 AM
#46
personally I sent alia 0.01 btc two times and she was able to profit for me , but I can't believe the script thing
The only thing that made me send money is that I will either win a little more btc or I will get a cam show , but I'm 100% sure that the script won't work in the long run
I mean personally if I know such thing I wouldn't sell it , why to sell a gold mine especially if it's an exploit !!

Did you see him gambling with your coins? Because I can promise you better ROI if you send me some coins too. I will return 200% to some people, get some big investments going and then off I go with the funds. It's called a ponzi.
I am going to refer to the OP as a 'he' because it's obvious by the used gamer's lingo that he is probably a male in his teenage years.

op is a she , she had a service where you send your money and she gambles
if she won she takes a portion and send you your capital + a profit , and if she lost you can get a cam show with her and she gets naked
so it was a good idea but she decided to close it and to sell the script instead which I don't like

Can you be certain he wasn't e-whoring you?
Like did he/she write something on a piece of paper over skype to someone?

I'm really not interested in the mathematical mumbo jumbo... all I care about is proving that the script works.

I have gotten 1 bit on Bustabit and am running the script.

Fyi, in case nobody knows maths - whether I play with 1 bit, 0.1 btc or 1 btc makes no difference. I'm looking at ROI here.

And I will no longer post a screen recording, I will just send you my account link.

Yeah, maybe the maths says I am crazy, but this has worked for me before and I vehemently believe it will continue to work for me

Then put on your big boys pants and run the script with 1 Bitcoin. More profit for you. What's the problem? You asked for a lot of Bitcoins but you are scared to bet yours. You said you had a stash of coins at your disposal on that signed address. Use that to shush the critics! And you can't pay your bills by betting cents dude. Play with the pros or go back to the sandpit.


Anyone who asks me to use it with a larger amount is stupid.

1) ROI is ROI. Whether it's on 1 bit or 1 bitcoin the return percentage is the same.
2) Since the script fails 9/10 times, I don't want to lose my coin. I will never use the script on significant amounts of money, unless it's for investors

Wait wait wait wait wait
The scrips fails 9 out of 10 times  Shocked Shocked
You surely meant 1 out of 10 times?

Yeah it fails 1 in 10 times by my estimate. And, I will run it for ten days, once a day, just for proof, aiming for a 20% ROI daily. If it fails more than 1 time, I will admit to being a scammer and fuck off forever. But, the script works. Wait 10 days and you will have proof.
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1150
Freedom&Honor
March 02, 2018, 06:02:17 AM
#45
personally I sent alia 0.01 btc two times and she was able to profit for me , but I can't believe the script thing
The only thing that made me send money is that I will either win a little more btc or I will get a cam show , but I'm 100% sure that the script won't work in the long run
I mean personally if I know such thing I wouldn't sell it , why to sell a gold mine especially if it's an exploit !!

Did you see him gambling with your coins? Because I can promise you better ROI if you send me some coins too. I will return 200% to some people, get some big investments going and then off I go with the funds. It's called a ponzi.
I am going to refer to the OP as a 'he' because it's obvious by the used gamer's lingo that he is probably a male in his teenage years.

op is a she , she had a service where you send your money and she gambles
if she won she takes a portion and send you your capital + a profit , and if she lost you can get a cam show with her and she gets naked
so it was a good idea but she decided to close it and to sell the script instead which I don't like

Can you be certain he wasn't e-whoring you?
Like did he/she write something on a piece of paper over skype to someone?

I'm really not interested in the mathematical mumbo jumbo... all I care about is proving that the script works.

I have gotten 1 bit on Bustabit and am running the script.

Fyi, in case nobody knows maths - whether I play with 1 bit, 0.1 btc or 1 btc makes no difference. I'm looking at ROI here.

And I will no longer post a screen recording, I will just send you my account link.

Yeah, maybe the maths says I am crazy, but this has worked for me before and I vehemently believe it will continue to work for me

Then put on your big boys pants and run the script with 1 Bitcoin. More profit for you. What's the problem? You asked for a lot of Bitcoins but you are scared to bet yours. You said you had a stash of coins at your disposal on that signed address. Use that to shush the critics! And you can't pay your bills by betting cents dude. Play with the pros or go back to the sandpit.


Anyone who asks me to use it with a larger amount is stupid.

1) ROI is ROI. Whether it's on 1 bit or 1 bitcoin the return percentage is the same.
2) Since the script fails 9/10 times, I don't want to lose my coin. I will never use the script on significant amounts of money, unless it's for investors

Wait wait wait wait wait
The scrips fails 9 out of 10 times  Shocked Shocked
You surely meant 1 out of 10 times?
hero member
Activity: 896
Merit: 514
March 02, 2018, 05:57:30 AM
#44
I've maintained throughout that the script has a 90% chance of winning and 10% chance of failure... I don't want to risk 1 BTC on a 10% chance of failure, simple as that. The ROI is currently being proved daily anyway

Back atcha:  If the script wins 90% of the time and has positive ROI over time, then you shouldn’t worry about risking 1 BTC.  ROI, yes?  You’ll make it back, then make more.  Just like your investors.

You really can't read, can you? It is EV-. EV-. That is the opposite of what you said. It brings profit 9/10 times, but even if that one time is a loss, it's a big loss. Over an infinite amount of time the script will make losses, like ALL gambling methods.

So what the hell did you prove then? That it works by not working? '' I have this strategy that works for gambling '' It works by losing in the long term?

Guess, this proves nothing.

"infinite amount of time the script will make losses, like ALL gambling methods" which includes whatever OP is offering. That also results to the fact that they have admitted the script will not work 100% of the time and will likely result to losses in the end. Guess this debunks the proof OP is offering.
hero member
Activity: 1624
Merit: 645
March 02, 2018, 05:32:13 AM
#43
I've maintained throughout that the script has a 90% chance of winning and 10% chance of failure... I don't want to risk 1 BTC on a 10% chance of failure, simple as that. The ROI is currently being proved daily anyway

Back atcha:  If the script wins 90% of the time and has positive ROI over time, then you shouldn’t worry about risking 1 BTC.  ROI, yes?  You’ll make it back, then make more.  Just like your investors.

You really can't read, can you? It is EV-. EV-. That is the opposite of what you said. It brings profit 9/10 times, but even if that one time is a loss, it's a big loss. Over an infinite amount of time the script will make losses, like ALL gambling methods.

So what the hell did you prove then? That it works by not working? '' I have this strategy that works for gambling '' It works by losing in the long term?
hero member
Activity: 896
Merit: 514
March 02, 2018, 05:30:19 AM
#42
The script fails (by 2% over time, so worse than blind chance).

It's not worse than blind chance, it's not better than blind chance. It's the same as blind chance. That's how it is on dice/crash sites that have a fixed house edge.

On early Bustabit clones (i.e. Cryptobust.io) it's possible to make a +EV script that takes the bonus into consideration. DarkStar gave a specific example of that in another thread.

EDIT: I see this is in response to the statistics alia gave, but I'm just pointing out that her script wouldn't turn a -1% game into -2%. Whatever you decide to do on these sites carry the same negative expectation with or without a script.

That's the point I was trying to make. Her purported script is a mathematical impossibility. Apologies, I should have been clearer.

Some people just try to make their gambling strategy, script, or whatever automated gambling action they have sound it is working for the purposes of selling whatever they are offering to sell. Well, everybody knows that this is just plain BS. OP is just trying to make his script sell. Statistically, indeed, the more you gamble the more you come close to infinite number of games which would say that you would just lose.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 18748
March 02, 2018, 02:41:29 AM
#41
The script fails (by 2% over time, so worse than blind chance).

It's not worse than blind chance, it's not better than blind chance. It's the same as blind chance. That's how it is on dice/crash sites that have a fixed house edge.

On early Bustabit clones (i.e. Cryptobust.io) it's possible to make a +EV script that takes the bonus into consideration. DarkStar gave a specific example of that in another thread.

EDIT: I see this is in response to the statistics alia gave, but I'm just pointing out that her script wouldn't turn a -1% game into -2%. Whatever you decide to do on these sites carry the same negative expectation with or without a script.

That's the point I was trying to make. Her purported script is a mathematical impossibility. Apologies, I should have been clearer.
full member
Activity: 369
Merit: 111
March 02, 2018, 01:52:57 AM
#40
The script fails (by 2% over time, so worse than blind chance).

It's not worse than blind chance, it's not better than blind chance. It's the same as blind chance. That's how it is on dice/crash sites that have a fixed house edge.

On early Bustabit clones (i.e. Cryptobust.io) it's possible to make a +EV script that takes the bonus into consideration. DarkStar gave a specific example of that in another thread.

EDIT: I see this is in response to the statistics alia gave, but I'm just pointing out that her script wouldn't turn a -1% game into -2%. Whatever you decide to do on these sites carry the same negative expectation with or without a script.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 18748
March 02, 2018, 01:20:01 AM
#39
I've maintained throughout that the script has a 90% chance of winning and 10% chance of failure... I don't want to risk 1 BTC on a 10% chance of failure, simple as that. The ROI is currently being proved daily anyway

Back atcha:  If the script wins 90% of the time and has positive ROI over time, then you shouldn’t worry about risking 1 BTC.  ROI, yes?  You’ll make it back, then make more.  Just like your investors.

You really can't read, can you? It is EV-. EV-. That is the opposite of what you said. It brings profit 9/10 times, but even if that one time is a loss, it's a big loss. Over an infinite amount of time the script will make losses, like ALL gambling methods.

You claim a 20% ROI 90% of the time, and a loss 10% of the time. Let's assume you start each roll with the same amount of bitcoin, hereby denoted b.

Over 10 rolls:

Starting balance, 10b
Wins: 9b x 1.2 = 10.8b
Losses: 1b
Overall: 10.8 - 1 = 9.8b

The script fails (by 2% over time, so worse than blind chance).
jr. member
Activity: 56
Merit: 115
Lowest EVER interest lending! (Use escrow always)
March 02, 2018, 12:13:45 AM
#38
I've maintained throughout that the script has a 90% chance of winning and 10% chance of failure... I don't want to risk 1 BTC on a 10% chance of failure, simple as that. The ROI is currently being proved daily anyway

Back atcha:  If the script wins 90% of the time and has positive ROI over time, then you shouldn’t worry about risking 1 BTC.  ROI, yes?  You’ll make it back, then make more.  Just like your investors.

You really can't read, can you? It is EV-. EV-. That is the opposite of what you said. It brings profit 9/10 times, but even if that one time is a loss, it's a big loss. Over an infinite amount of time the script will make losses, like ALL gambling methods.
copper member
Activity: 630
Merit: 2614
If you don’t do PGP, you don’t do crypto!
March 01, 2018, 11:57:23 PM
#37
I've maintained throughout that the script has a 90% chance of winning and 10% chance of failure... I don't want to risk 1 BTC on a 10% chance of failure, simple as that. The ROI is currently being proved daily anyway

Back atcha:  If the script wins 90% of the time and has positive ROI over time, then you shouldn’t worry about risking 1 BTC.  ROI, yes?  You’ll make it back, then make more.  Just like your investors.
jr. member
Activity: 56
Merit: 115
Lowest EVER interest lending! (Use escrow always)
March 01, 2018, 11:31:29 PM
#36
I've maintained throughout that the script has a 90% chance of winning and 10% chance of failure... I don't want to risk 1 BTC on a 10% chance of failure, simple as that. The ROI is currently being proved daily anyway
copper member
Activity: 630
Merit: 2614
If you don’t do PGP, you don’t do crypto!
March 01, 2018, 11:15:29 PM
#35
Typo I meant wins 9/10 times

That makes no sense in the context:

2) Since the script wins 9/10 times, I don't want to lose my coin. I will never use the script on significant amounts of money, unless it's for investors

This makes sense in the context:

2) Since the script fails 9/10 times, I don't want to lose my coin. I will never use the script on significant amounts of money, unless it's for investors

So maybe add to this:

I'm really not interested in the mathematical mumbo jumbo...

...also this:

I'm really not interested in the reading comprehension mumbo jumbo...


[...important pertinent quotations which everybody should review...]

Love that last one. Fuck math, I make profit.



Typo I meant wins 9/10 times



Damn it, suchmoon.  +1 IOU.  Which will vanish and become something different if I gamble my sMerit using Alia’s script, the dog eats my homework, or I find any other handy excuse—“typo”.
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
March 01, 2018, 10:33:47 PM
#34
the script usually works 9/10 times or more

the script fails 9/10 times

Pfft, numbers?  Who cares?

I'm really not interested in the mathematical mumbo jumbo...



suchmoon, I get your point.  You see that I do.  But I still interested in relating that to whatever claims Alia made when she was offering the script for sale.  Those should take precedence, given the purpose of this “proof” thread:  To prove that selling the script was not a scam, viz., that it will perform as then advertised.

The claims in the original thread were different. It's quite clear that she's just making it up.

Historically, this script is able to give me upwards of 10% on each round of playing, and is also able to indicate, in a way, the coming games' outcomes based on immediately preceding games. Note that although this script can work automatically, it is best to keep a take-profit point below 30% (it is what I usually do, and it has worked out absolutely superbly).

Keep in mind that although running this script for 30 mins can double your money, running it for 24 hours will almost certainly cause you to lose it.

The odds of all ten games busting above 1.1x are (0.9)^10 = ~35%. The odds of twenty games busting above 1.1x are (0.9)^20 = 12%. Thus, if 10 games bust above 1.1x, it can be reasonably assumed (as per the "gambler's fallacy") that the next ten games will probably have a bust below 1.1x. Naturally - this is a mathematical fallacy, because the odds of the ten games are calculated in an isolated fashion and are not involved with each other. However, in my practice and experience (while playing and tweaking the script), it has worked near-flawlessly, and I continue to make profit this way.

Love that last one. Fuck math, I make profit.



Typo I meant wins 9/10 times

jr. member
Activity: 56
Merit: 115
Lowest EVER interest lending! (Use escrow always)
March 01, 2018, 10:33:29 PM
#33
Anyone who asks me to use it with a larger amount is stupid.

1) ROI is ROI. Whether it's on 1 bit or 1 bitcoin the return percentage is the same.
2) Since the script fails 9/10 times, I don't want to lose my coin. I will never use the script on significant amounts of money, unless it's for investors

The script fails 9 out of 10 times? Not quite what you claimed in the OP, is it now?

Is it what she claimed in the thread where she was selling the script?  This thread is supposed to somehow prove that that thread was legit.  Therefore, to be fair, the standard here should be at a minimum what was claimed there.

Edit:  A “gambling script” which “fails 9/10 times” is a hell of a gambling script.  Take a chance!  1/10 of the time, this script will win something!  And yes, I would readily find plausible a claim that this script wins money at least 1/10 of the time on a site with a 1% house edge.

Typo I meant wins 9/10 times
Pages:
Jump to: