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Topic: Proving that my gambling script works. - page 9. (Read 1848 times)

legendary
Activity: 3094
Merit: 1127
March 01, 2018, 02:30:29 PM
#12
What is the point to open this thread?

If you make a regular profit from gambling then I don't believe it because if that is true then you wouldn't have opened this thread to tell it to the public but you would have been busy in collecting profit every day.



The point is to clear my name in a public way. People think I was lying when I said I had a profitable gambling script - I was not.

I would not use this with my own funds, mainly because a 10% chance of loss is too risky for my risk appetite. I do use it for investor funds and take a cut, but naturally, I keep this low, because the chance of losses are real. However, in the short term, profits are always guaranteed as long as you keep the ROI low. I will prove this in a manner that is entirely provably fair.

You are scared to use your own working script with your own funds? You are contradicting yourself mighty fine here dude. I suggest you up the ante to BTC0.1 per bet. After all you asked for upwards of 1 Bitcoin per investor for 'bigger gains'. 1-3 bits won't cut it  Wink
BTC0.1 per bet is somehow a very convincing thing for him to use into his bets. 1-3 bits is just good for trial basis.If it does work then go directly with bigger bets so that people would really be convinced but we do all the know the reality of gambling no matter how good the script is,sooner or later that thing will bust up no matter what 20% on bankroll is achievable not because of script but on your pure luck.
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1036
March 01, 2018, 12:44:10 PM
#11
What is the point to open this thread?

If you make a regular profit from gambling then I don't believe it because if that is true then you wouldn't have opened this thread to tell it to the public but you would have been busy in collecting profit every day.



The point is to clear my name in a public way. People think I was lying when I said I had a profitable gambling script - I was not.

I would not use this with my own funds, mainly because a 10% chance of loss is too risky for my risk appetite. I do use it for investor funds and take a cut, but naturally, I keep this low, because the chance of losses are real. However, in the short term, profits are always guaranteed as long as you keep the ROI low. I will prove this in a manner that is entirely provably fair.

You are scared to use your own working script with your own funds? You are contradicting yourself mighty fine here dude. I suggest you up the ante to BTC0.1 per bet. After all you asked for upwards of 1 Bitcoin per investor for 'bigger gains'. 1-3 bits won't cut it  Wink
full member
Activity: 250
Merit: 106
March 01, 2018, 12:41:28 PM
#10
It is impossible on mathematics. But if a gambling site is not fair, it tends to let win at beginning. I experienced that on many gambling sites. At beginning I won with my strategy and as soon as I wagered higher amounts, I lost. So if he is talking about winnings on short term run, he could be right on certain sites.
copper member
Activity: 630
Merit: 2614
If you don’t do PGP, you don’t do crypto!
March 01, 2018, 11:58:58 AM
#9
Alia, I am open to the possibility that you sincerely believe what you are saying.  Please compare the following recent experience of mine, in a context not involving monetary gain or scam accusations.

It began in the Vanitygen thread, in Development & Technical Discussion.  (I linked to the post which led into the discussion; continue reading downthread.)  With no obvious material motive, Jude Austin (a Legendary!) claimed to have randomly found an address with funds on an imitator of directory.io.  Discussion ensued involving me, DannyHamilton, LoyceV, and dooglus on one side, and Jude Austin on the other.  Key points:


As for security, you will shit your pants, on btckey.space I found an address with funds, tho it was a small amount (transaction fee) it was completely random.


Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.

I suspect two possibilities:

1.  Neither the address, nor your search were properly random.

2. You are lying.



have some faith

Why can't you open your mind and believe?

Thanks, got it.  I have my own cult; I don’t need yours.

We are now far outside technical discussion and deep in kook territory.  I’m not interested in that, and neither am I interested in (further) derailing the Vanitygen thread.  Please leave this thread to discussion of Vanitygen and the generation of vanity addresses.

N.b. that Jude Austin spends his cycles on LBC, too.  From his posts, I infer that he passionately believes in the notion of finding address collisions.

Jude Austin subsequently began a thread in Technical Support titled, I found a collision. The hard part is proving it.  I did not participate in that thread, or even read it; life is too short.

Now, compare the title of your thread here:  “Proving that my gambling script works.”

The point is to clear my name in a public way. People think I was lying when I said I had a profitable gambling script - I was not.

It is possible that you could persuade people that you’re a kook instead of a scammer.  Attempting to empirically “prove” the mathematically impossible is not so different from writing university professors long e-mails with designs for perpetual motion machines, free energy devices, or a peculiar favourite of mine, recursive compressors.  I am not trying to insult you here:  That’s just how it is; and if you sincerely believe in your script, then you may not realize how others see this thread.  It looks like a good analogue for this:

One thing always came in my mind is a block are like a bus who pass every 10min. In real life the bus have theoric limited amount of seats (the 1mb limit analogy), but it possible to add more people in the bus with a little of additional work. or "compress" work

[...]

And in physics its possible to compress anything on a small limited volume, but that "compress" need always addition work according to the initial volume. (Black holes for example)

So my theory is if it is possibile to find an algorythm that do the same thing but with data and information. Giving an arbitrary large file, is it possible mathematically to compress it to a limit less 1Mb.

What an excellent idea!!  May I ask a humble question, maybe to improve your genius.  Why not feed the output of the compression program back into the compression program recursively?  You could compress the whole blockchain to be printed in a QR code for backup!  Or even the whole Internet!

Possible prior art:  WEB compressor, U.S. Patent 5,533,051, U.S. Patent 5,488,364, etc.  Tell me, is your method patented??

(Forum, please forgive me.  I never had the pleasure of suffering these in comp.compression.)

Loading image TooManyPigeons.jpg...

It is also possible that this be your run-up to some future attempt to sell the script again, or otherwise profit from mathematically impossible claims about games of chance.  If you were to do that, such would conclusively show your motives.

Now, a question which is sensitive, but must be asked:  Somewhere in your post history, I saw you describe yourself as a “degen” in matters of gambling.  (Don’t take that as an insult:  You said it.)  I am asking you a reasonable question, not to attack you:  Are you fixated on the idea of a winning script?  Many gamblers become obsessed with similar ideas.

I am posting partly for the purpose of saying what I say, and partly to see whether you sincerely wish to challenge in open discourse the people who tell you that what you claim is mathematically impossible.  Some of them are gambling experts (which I am not), who have crunched numbers specifically about the game you are playing.  I have reviewed their arguments.  What they say is sound.  What you claim is not, to make an understatement.  Whereupon I myself am more interested in really knowing why you’re doing this.
copper member
Activity: 2996
Merit: 2371
March 01, 2018, 11:53:37 AM
#8
You should start with a larger bet. If you do, if you are right then you will have enough money so it won’t matter what anyone else thinks and can just retire.
member
Activity: 97
Merit: 10
March 01, 2018, 11:38:03 AM
#7
The house always win
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 658
rgbkey.github.io/pgp.txt
March 01, 2018, 11:00:13 AM
#6
If the script does not yield 20% ROI 18 times out of 20, I will admit that I "lied", and will leave the forum. I will also send a few bits to people who warned against me.
If the script yields 20% ROI 18 times out of 20 (or more)... well, then I guess my point has been proven.
18 times of 20 is 90%. ROI - 20%. Expected value is 1.08. There's a chance of 92.5% to reach so easy target without using any scripts. So, you would not prove anything.

At a 1% house edge, which both of these sites have, the simple chance of 20% return is 82.5%. The chance of alia getting 18, 19, or 20 of these 82.5% chances in a group of 20 is as follows:



(For those unfamiliar, this uses the Binomial Distribution to find the chance of k successes out of 20 trials. Here we are interested in k=18, k=19, and k=20 so we sum those results).

This comes out to 0.294233 (rounded to the 6th decimal place), or 29.4233%.

So basically, the chance of alia's script working (according to the known laws of probability) are around 29.4%.

I have my doubts about the legitimacy of this because screen recordings can be faked, livestreams could have been pre-recorded and such, but I won't get any more into that in this post.

legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
March 01, 2018, 10:58:41 AM
#5
I will be running it a grand total of 20 times (once on each site daily).

Can you bump this up to a more reasonable number, e.g. 20 million or so. Thanks.
member
Activity: 126
Merit: 22
March 01, 2018, 10:32:53 AM
#4
If the script does not yield 20% ROI 18 times out of 20, I will admit that I "lied", and will leave the forum. I will also send a few bits to people who warned against me.
If the script yields 20% ROI 18 times out of 20 (or more)... well, then I guess my point has been proven.
18 times of 20 is 90%. ROI - 20%. Expected value is 1.08. There's a chance of 92.5% to reach so easy target without using any scripts. So, you would not prove anything.
jr. member
Activity: 56
Merit: 115
Lowest EVER interest lending! (Use escrow always)
March 01, 2018, 09:16:31 AM
#3
What is the point to open this thread?

If you make a regular profit from gambling then I don't believe it because if that is true then you wouldn't have opened this thread to tell it to the public but you would have been busy in collecting profit every day.



The point is to clear my name in a public way. People think I was lying when I said I had a profitable gambling script - I was not.

I would not use this with my own funds, mainly because a 10% chance of loss is too risky for my risk appetite. I do use it for investor funds and take a cut, but naturally, I keep this low, because the chance of losses are real. However, in the short term, profits are always guaranteed as long as you keep the ROI low. I will prove this in a manner that is entirely provably fair.
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1011
March 01, 2018, 09:08:24 AM
#2
What is the point to open this thread?

If you make a regular profit from gambling then I don't believe it because if that is true then you wouldn't have opened this thread to tell it to the public but you would have been busy in collecting profit every day.

jr. member
Activity: 56
Merit: 115
Lowest EVER interest lending! (Use escrow always)
March 01, 2018, 09:03:10 AM
#1
I was once selling a gambling script (for which I received a lot of backlash) and was called a scammer. I am saying that it is profitable in the short run - people do not believe me.

Every day, for the next 10 days, starting from 12:10 AM UTC, I will use the script.

1 bit will be wagered on Bustabit and 3 bits will be wagered on Cryptobust. You can follow along daily, since the times have been set in stone, and will not change. You can even watch me play, if you wish to do so. I will screen record each run through and post it here.

Note: I am no longer selling the script, I just want to prove people wrong.

Anyway, the aim for each run will be a 20% ROI. I recommend 5-10% ROI with the script, but 20% will be my aim each time. As I stated previously, the script usually works 9/10 times or more. So, I will be running it a grand total of 20 times (once on each site daily).

If the script does not yield 20% ROI 18 times out of 20, I will admit that I "lied", and will leave the forum. I will also send a few bits to people who warned against me.

If the script yields 20% ROI 18 times out of 20 (or more)... well, then I guess my point has been proven.

We will see. You shall all see.

PS: If you have mathematically sound reasoning below, your post shall stay. If you have words of encouragement, the post will stay. If I lose more than 2 times and you want to roast me, the post will stay.

If you insult me for no reason, I will delete your post. If you spam irrelevant stuff here, I will delete your post. Trolls, please return if I lose (aka not happening)

Follow the progress here: https://www.bustabit.com/user/makealiagreatagain

Note that the real bets are in decimals but Bustabit only shows integers.

Day 1 - 24% ROI

Day 2 - 37% ROI

Day 3 (part 1) - -100% ROI

Day 3 (part 2) - 37% ROI
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