Topic: r0ach's Cryptomarkets Watch & Scamcoin Observer - page 20. (Read 47262 times)

2008 crash only took gold to 88% or so of it's normal price for a month before it went right back up higher than before.  Let's say people did go all in on cash in hopes that would be the best move.  You would have to be absolutely insane to have all of your wealth in the form of digital fiat in a bank when the crash occurs.  There will be bank holidays, maybe you'll get Cyprused right on the spot.  You would have to hold entirely physical cash.  How do you "buy the dip" of anything with physical cash???  You have to go stuff your physical cash into a bank account afterwards to get on an exchange and then get Cyprused in the process!  

What are you going to do?  Walk around with a briefcase of physical cash shopping around for whatever bank is left standing?  Probably all of them will implode anyway from cascading deflationary collapse of fractional reserve fiat.  I don't understand the logistics of your plan here heh.  Your plan seems to involve shoveling lots of fiat notes into a bank account on the eve of the greatest financial catastrophe in history...

If they fear counterparty risk, they will cause a stampede and cause counterparty defaults.

The slowdown in buying from n00bs, can cause the price to drop, which will cause the enriched shorts to pile on (cash out their initial investment and gamble the profits) overshooting to the lower low bottom. Plus all the copycats chasing the trend especially with the "world is falling down" hysteria.

V bottom on steriods. Buy the bottom same as in 2009.

There is leverage from lending BTC for income, but if holders fear counterparty risk and instead pull their coins off exchanges that will only squeeze the shorts and drive the price higher, potentially much higher. I don't think anyone really knows how much short leverage is out there.

I'm ignoring halving effects, miner ASIC doorstops, etc. I don't know how to analyze that.

Well I lately more and more realize that Bitcoin is a funnel where n00bs come in to buy and miners cash out. The stalwarts don't buy more, as they are few in number and already have their big portion.

So an interruption in the stream of n00bs might have a domino deleveraging effect, since many people loan their BTC short to earn extra revenue.

Leverage may be hiding where you think you see only HODLers.

Also with the halving and marginal miners not wanting to turn their ASICs into door stops, they may be in a more strained position and need to deleverage in a contagion.

I don't think you're taking into account what demographic is actually being "squeezed" in a liquidity crunch.  The people who own most of these things (BTC) are already rich in the first place and have no debt.  The people who aren't rich and own them have some totally insignificant amount.

The real people getting squeezed are the middle class Americans with McMansions, private schools, and cars they can't afford.  What is the common denominator of that group?  They all own stocks and none of them own Bitcoin.  People on the bottom and middle are the ones being squeezed.  Stocks are mainstream, Bitcoin and gold aren't.  Therefore, the stock dump will be horrific while things such as Bitcoin, as long as the confidence level is high (from 12.5 block reward halving bubble gains) will not only not go down, but will probably be going up as a safe haven from banks that will Cyprus you because Bitcoin is cash without counterparty risk.

Correct. Agreed. But remember that comes after the V bottom liquidity crunch. A liquidity crunch is not a safe haven move. It is a liquidity survival carry trade reversal on auto-pilot. Human decisions are not in play.


Exactly because their leveraged obligations and margin calls are in cash. And that is not Bitcoin "cash".


Sorry you are wrong.

Bitcoin will go up because it's the Rolls Royce of capital flight, so if you actually believe everyone on earth is going to flood to US dollars (instead of de-pegging from the dollar in general), then it's the go to play to catch market share in that capital flight.  In a liquidity crunch, people are dumping illiquid assets for cash.  Bitcoin IS CASH.  There's no reason for it to go down.  Trust in banks will be next to ZERO during all of this.  Nobody is going to liquidate all of their assets to just be stored as digital fiat in a bank account.  People will be going wild for Bitcoin because Bitcoin has no bank holiday for the government to Cyprus you.

I have said the bottom may not be in yet for gold and Bitcoin.

The timing was originally 2016, but what has changed is that the US Fed decided to delay raising interest rates to try to help Europe. And then the elite hatched this plan to have a BREXIT vote so as to reaffirm the U.K.'s commitment to the EU. This BREXIT victory for the EU, coupled with the delay in raising interest rates, is causing the confidence to swing temporarily back to the Euro (away from the dollar) and is giving a deadcat bounce to speculation markets (which require general liquidity because they are all about harvesting the funds of stoopid greater fool n00bs).

But this delay is causing pension plans to go bankrupt and is causing all the excesses of debt to move well above nosebleed levels:

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So what we have is a massive Minsky Moment being tightly wound like a spring fully compressed that is going to explode once the Euro peaks (perhaps as high as 1.24). We are waiting for the BREXIT to drive this counter-trend, deadcat rally to its extreme.

Then upon the election of Trump in November, coinciding with that global liquidity contagion Minsky Moment as interest rates start to move and the dollar starts gaining again, then roughly Q1 2017 (but anytime after BREXIT peak is still possible in later 2016), we are going to see a massive liquidity crunch where everyone will pile on short and overshoot to the bottom on every asset except US dollars. Trump will drive a desire to hold dollars as he will threaten trade and currency wars against China.

Trump will win because he will move more to the center of right after he secures the Republican nomination. He will become nicer and people will see him in a more positive light. And he will destroy Hellary's reputation with his skilled way of attacking. He had to appeal to the hard right in order to stop the entrenched power players in the Republican party from stealing the nomination from him. He might even appoint Bernie Sanders as Vice President.

Thus the selloff of gold and Bitcoin as well (and altcoins to near 0), but this will be very brief V bottom just like in 2008/2009, then the world's capital will stampede into the dollar, dollar denominated assets such as US stock markets and trophy real estate, and also gold and CC will swing back to bullish mode with the final bottom finally reached.

The latest essay from Armstrong is very important:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/sp-500/trading-volumes-declines-as-hoarding-rises-due-to-uncertainty/


Edit note Trump is very pro-NSA and even supports laws breaking encryption. He appointed Doug Christie who is very totalitarian about NSA (go back and listen to the early Republican debates). I could see Trump potentially becoming very anti-Bitcoin especially with the mining centralization in China. However if Bitcoin is really the House of Morgan's baby, then Trump will be obliged to not attack Bitcoin.

The cost of electricity for the corrupt in China can be essentially free (although it may be more at the level of 2 cents per KWH now from what I heard, so that the power players protect their political reputation in case it gets DOXXed). But there needs to be coins paid for mining, so that it is worthwhile to even do that corruption in the first place. Thus unprofitable mining with a tail reward could still be vulnerable, but in my design not so because the tail reward is so small compared to the PoW difficulty supplied by the signers of transactions, that the cartel can't find it worthwhile to do the corruption. I said my design will turn ASIC mining farms into door stops. Do you think it is wise for me to create such a CC and be assassinated? This is not a game we are playing here. This is real life and pissed off oligarchs have their ways of making people disappear.

On the ASIC commodization (besides that I already pointed out the fact that it wouldn't totally level the time-to-market access and does nothing to account for free electricity charged to the collective), it appears the opposite might occur:

Anonymint already said in the past something along the lines of there is no reason why it wouldn't be commoditized.

I think you are wrong about this, but only to the extent that current huge subsidies in various forms (I'm including likely corruption) in China become less significant, and also probably assuming ASIC commoditization.*

Eventually you get to a point where even though the waste heat is worth less than the electricity that goes in (as your comments correctly state), using it still adds to you efficiency and not using it will be uncompetitive.

* You and I both view ASIC commoditization is significantly less likely in the foreseeable future than r0ach believes. I may differ from you in that I don't completely rule it out longer term.

Please stop painting me as a Bitcoin permabear. I merely claimed it might not have hit the bottom yet for the decline from $1000, but I never claimed it wouldn't go higher again.

And I am not 100% sure my vaporware design (with no ETA on when I might ever implement it) will solve the centralization problem, but at least it has a chance whereas the other designs don't have a chance if they also scale up. Monero's block size auto adjustment with penalty will do nothing to stop centralization if Monero is scaled up enough that it is becomes profitable to design ASICs for it. It is more difficult to design an ASIC for Monero's memory hard proof-of-work function, thus Monero can scale up more before it becomes profitable enough to design an ASIC for it. There is no way to solve the problem of centralization using a profitable PoW design. Period. Full stop. Whether an unprofitable PoW is viable and whether it would actually fix the centralization problem, is something that can't be properly peer reviewed because there is no white paper. And I don't want to go off on that diversion right now.

My criticisms against the other coins, was just to be sure that everyone admits they are just in love with gambling and not actually making any technical solutions to anything. As long as we all admit we are just gamblers, then I STFU and let us play Lotto and try to steal from each other in the zero sum game of greater fool theory of speculation. White the Chinese mining cartel is extracting $1 million a day from us via printing-coins-out-of-thin-air and soon also by sky high transaction fees. We steal from each other with speculation volatility while the oligarchs in China steal from us. Eventually all our wealth has been siphoned from us, they (TPTB) win. Which is what "Satoshi" designed Bitcoin to do to us. Period.

Satoshi isn't some man. Bitcoin was created by a secret group funded by the banksters. How can't that be obvious by now given what profitable proof-of-work does to all of us over time.


I never thought the value of Bitcoin would crash to 0. I rather think you will be forced to pay your taxes when you transact in Bitcoin by signing an output over to the appropriate authority, which will be enforced at the block chain protocol level by the Chinese mining cartel. I don't know when those capital controls will come, but my guess is after 2018, maybe later. And I think these taxes will become very high as the governments around the world are bankrupt, people love socialism, and they will need to steal the money from those who still have any.

Yes chaos such as a fragmented Internet would change many things.

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One man can't accomplish what "Satoshi" did with such precision. It was a large group of experts. No doubt about it.

You guys who have no experience in doing something like this, love to have your James Bond fantasies. But you are completely out-of-touch with the reality of actually doing what "Satoshi" accomplished.

I am not sure of that. I put it out there as a strong possibility. But we also have to factor in that the Euro is making a rally against the dollar, gold has been rallying also. We have a countertrend bounce right now. The wheels haven't fallen off the global economy yet.


But that doesn't mean BTC won't be pumped again to pull more money into that trap. Fundamentals of it as true hedge against fiat/governmment isn't necessarily correlated to its price performance.


Bitcoin is largest of the scams. It is pulling $1 million a day out of pockets and handing it to some corruption in China.


I destroyed this logic fail from smooth in the past. Did you miss it?

Electricity is nearly an order-of-magnitude less efficient way to create heat. No one is going to compete with nearly free electricity in China (due to corruption) by paying more to heat their homes.

Even if Chinese mining farms were not getting political favors in exchange for promising to follow the government's edicts on regulation of mining (which of course they will do as any rational person will do because if they don't someone else will avail of the offer from the government and of course the government of China wants to control Bitcoin, duh!), it would still be the case that Chinese mining farms will always have greater economies-of-scale which will make it impossible to compete with them by getting part of the electricity for heating your home for free, because again you could heat your home in much more efficient ways especially factoring in the capital cost of the latest generation competitive ASIC mining equipment, as compared to for example adding better insulation to your walls or double paned windows, etc..


100%. We are headed into a top-down managed world. Take off your rosy spectacles and study the history of mankind and what happens at junctures like the one we are in now.


14nm fabs are only owned by Intel, Samsung, and TMSC. Intel will probably be the first to 10nm, perhaps up to a year ahead of the others. It takes years to ramp up production to meaningful volumes. Commodization doesn't mean that consumers can get the most efficient hardware at reasonable prices. The cutting edge will always belong to the mining farm which places large guaranteed orders years in advance.

I have never taken the position that BTC will never go higher than $1000 again. I believe it is possible it has not yet formed a bottom, but that is not saying it has seen its highest top.

If I were TPTB, I would want the maximum number of people to incriminate themselves by moving their assets into Bitcoin, before going after confiscations for money laundering and other fine prints in the laws.

So yes I see another big runup of the Bitcoin price and the regulation will come later perhaps 2018 or even after 2020, and then they will start to confiscate the Bitcoins with the control over mining. And I expect clawbacks too meaning if you divested of Bitcoin, they will come seize your other assets. Or jailtime if you can't pay up. Debtors' prisons will return. Why? Because the governments are bankrupt, socialism is bankrupt, but the world is mostly socialists and they will not stop trying to take money from other people, so they will go find the money every place they can to steal it. This is the way socialism works. No one can defect. It is until death do us part.

We are headed into a clusterfuck. Many of you are delusional labeling me a Chicken Little because you don't want to admit the clusterfuck the world is in now. Enjoy.


Socialism will not die. I had predicted this in my widely syndicated 2010 essay which predicted the EU would not breakup:

He doesn't need to die when he can be diebolded

And avoid getting assassinated.

Don't worry, me and Anonymint both work for the new world order.  We won't try to break up your human control grid.

You can speculate all you want but the EU will not break up at least not anytime soon. Brexit will decide that the UK stays, your French nationalist will lose the elections eventually, etc. etc.

BTC will moon regardless of this.

You are both taking too radical stands while as it is the case often the truth is somewhere in the middle.

Yes, that's is real true story from altcoin market - too many altcoins in the market, and many altcoins users prefer Bitcoin as main crypto. 

Anonymizer, did you see this?  The EU looks dead to me from Czech, Austria, Hungary, and others rebelling against forced intake of migrants, while also having France and UK wanting out.  Contrary to what you seem to think about Brexit, I think the EU breaking up would send Bitcoin to the moon.