Topic: r0ach's Cryptomarkets Watch & Scamcoin Observer - page 24. (Read 47247 times)

Do you remember a couple months ago when NXT had something like a 5 million dollar market cap with 15 BTC buy support on the only exchange it's traded at?  That guy Kiklo is constantly spamming advertisement for some PoS coin he's a bagholder on that probably isn't even traded on an exchange, yet someone still awarded it a market cap somehow.

I mean you are not factoring in that "SigWit" is a centralization plan and Blockstream is taking control in cahoots with China.

That is the end of Bitcoin as a decentralized alternative to fiat.

I am not bearish on segwit, as the research I've done tells me Bitcoin needs to scale to around 8MB blocks to be accessible to middle/upper middle class, 1st world inhabitants with market penetration as a checkbook type device for large value transactions.  Segwit goes to 1.6MB, then a hardfork in 2017 goes to 3.2MB.  

3.2MB + payment channels + Schnorr sigs will be functionally equivalent to 8MB out of the gate (or much higher), so price-wise, the glass ceiling on most of BTC should be leaving.  I don't think garbage collection will be a problem in the foreseeable future, because frequent usage of said action will automatically be pushed out of the market.  Even the Gavinator, lord of the largest of blocks, admits we rely on far worse legacy systems every day in computers and finance, so it's not going to be much of a problem in Bitcoin.

It is important to separate the idea of payment channels and Lightning Network, as LN is just a proprietary solution and there will be all kinds of things going on with payment channels.  Any entities that do large amounts of repeat business with each other are going to find value there.  The idea that Bitcoin is stagnating from some pundits is hilarious when the entire glass ceiling on price is likely to come off soon.

Well a rocketship rise in Bitcoin will bring more fools in to arena to lose their money, so I am not so sure about that.

I rather think if BTC gets a flu, the altcoins go into cardiac arrest.

Ideologically I wish you were correct because I wish we were accomplishing something more serious here, but fact is Bitcoin is a gambler's paradise and is the reserve currency (unit-of-account) of crypto-gambling. Up for Bitcoin, is up for altcoins.

And as for the seriousness of Bitcoin, it is not. We have some blockheads at Blockscam leading us to SegWarts failure.

Face the reality. The entire CC arena is a speculative vested interests snake pit for the most part. There is some genuine work being done but it is the minority.

When you look at markets like Eth and see how it's controlled by literally one single guy moving 100-150 BTC buy walls around, you have the very definition of a greater fool market.  Do you think that guy is going to exist forever?  Either he will lure others into his scheme until he doesn't have to do it anymore and "crowd fund" others to support it, or he's going to stop propping it up and the thing implodes.  The market either has to go up or down in a big way and it's already far overextended in the first place.  They're likely raising it right now solely to try and find momentum traders to unload on before BTC halving.

Most altcoins don't have such blatant economic centralization, but many of the current big ones like Eth and Factom might as well be a guy in his house moving around numbers on his personal spreadsheet.  The only reason they haven't seen an atomic bomb go off is because they're praying they can attract some new, greater fool contestents post-BTC halving.  When the entire Bologniex market moves like an index now, propping those things up is a difficult thing to do.  Any rise on BTC is black death misery on alts.

FYI:  I will likely rebrand this thread as "Alt Market Observer" or something post-halving since there's not many people on the forum people trust to not moderate their posts, lock the thread, delete the thread, etc.

Also please note I significantly edited my post with the RED TEXT above.

VERY IMPORTANT!

Martin Armstrong's "if this, then that" reversals have indicated that a very rare and unexpected outcome has become more plausible:


The implications of this are that the rising interest rates and slingshot scenario for the US stocks and US dollar could be delayed until 2017 or even 2018. This FALSE MOVE up for Europe could cause a FALSE MOVE down for the US stock market and US dollar (inversion of the reasons for the slingshot move) which will load the slingshot with maximum catapulting force.

Those who don't understand what I am referring to by "slingshot" need to review my recent posts upthread.

So this means we might not get a crash in Bitcoin and gold at this time if they are still anti-correlated to the US dollar and US stocks. We might be looking at "happy speculating days are here again" for another 1.5 years!! OMG!!  

But realize that when the slingshot comes 2017ish (with the phase transition accelerated stampede beginning perhaps 2017.95 instead of peaking on that date as originally speculated), US dollar, US stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and other tangible "off the grid" assets will be aligned in an upward bubble as the rest of the world flees its collapsing economies (for reasons as explained upthread).

So assuming BREXIT is denied (and the public's support of EU is affirmed), we may see for the remainder of 2016 that USD down, US stocks down, and gold and Bitcoin could go either direction. Gold might go down since it is seen as a hedge against government failure. Bitcoin could go up if people are selling gold and looking for an alternative speculation in the tinfoil hat arena. Bitcoin isn't really a hedge against government failure, rather BTC is a crypto-gambler's paradise reserve currency. But gold may also still be anti-correlated to the USD somewhat, so perhaps gold would not decline and not go up either. However it is possible that Bitcoin would go down with both gold and USD/USD stocks, if Bitcoin is seem also ideologically a bet on the failure of currency unions and governments. My thinking though is Bitcoin is a hi-tech innovation and is driven by crypto speculation demand. Perhaps what can bring Bitcoin down is the realization that SegWit doesn't solve Bitcoin's scalepocalyse.

Whereas, once that FALSE MOVE into the Euro peaks and the realities of how fucked the ZIRP and pegging of currencies is, with the $10 trillion short on the USD by foreign corporation bond offerings, then the SLINGSHOT back into the USD and US stocks, which at first will confound everyone. But this will accelerate the collapse of the rest of the world as the USD rises.

As this gains steam, it is possible it may pull some money out of Bitcoin, as Bitcoin may have peaked from the current up move, and speculators will want a new speculation as they see gold and USD/US stocks rising. So perhaps Bitcoin is anti-correlated to gold after all! Hmmm. But the other possibility is gold and Bitcoin both don't make a significant move on the FALSE MOVE, or they both go down or up together.

My bet is as follows:

1. Gold is primarily a hedge against failure of government now, and no longer anti-correlated to USD. Tinfoil hat goldbugs have by now realized China is not our savior.

2. BREXIT fails, Euro up, Euro stocks up, USD down, USD stocks down, gold down, and Bitcoin confused.

3. SegWit realized to be insufficient, Bitcoin down hard along with gold, USD, USD stocks.


Edit: Armstrong sees gold aligning with USD stocks (but very importantly still disaligned with USD) in preparation for the upcoming FALSE MOVE in 2016 followed by SLINGSHOT move in 2017. And has noted USA Dow stocks in the region of technical support. So it appears the current up move in gold, Bitcoin, and stocks will reverse with the outcome of the BREXIT vote if is a "No" result.

---

I voted that I am a Minanarchist, because I live in reality not delusion.

Crypto-anarchists' delusions lead to a totalitarian State., i.e. these tinfoil hats aren't diversified:

roach, I've seen many of your posts and you seem like a very smart dude. But to say the bottom will drop out of the alt market bc btc is halving seems a little short sighted.. I mean who knows, you may be right but looking back to '12 the last time btc halved and went up ridiculously.. didin't ltc come along for the ride? i believe it apprectated more than btc.. maybe ltc halved then too, idk but it seems like alot of alts come along for the btc ride just because  

I can not wait for that day, when these kind of senseless speculation will be debunked, and we will discover that bitcoin is stronger than many people think, and we will see an unexpected stability in the price of bitcoin.

Correct, because stop losses are losses. They are not diversification.



Anyone who has more than 25% of their liquid network in crypto (and the rest in instantly illiquid assets such as gold, cash, and land since governments routinely cancel cash, apply capital controls to gold, and can raise taxes egregiously on land causing buyers to run away) at this stage of the imminent global liquidity squeeze as interest rates rise and with the risks of CC failure due to centralization, is either very poor already and gambling with lunch money, or is a high stakes gambler and not a prudent investor.


US stocks are one of the best and most liquid investments one can make for the timeframe through the end of 2017. You gain the benefit of a US dollar that will rise ~30% over that time frame compounded by a 50 - 200% rise in the stocks as the rest of the world piles into these two safe havens (dollar and US stocks denominated in dollars). The justification was explained in my upthread posts (which link off to the Martin Armstrong thread in the Economics forum which has more detail).

AAA-rated USA corporate bonds are also a similarly phenomenal investment right now for the same reasons. Governments' bonds should be avoided like the plague.

Edit: my subsequent post contemplates that the SLINGSHOT move may be delayed another 1.5 years depending on outcome of BREXIT vote.

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And the governments can clamp down on BTC at any time using capital controls on the exchanges, because if the most of the world doesn't accept BTC unless they can immediately convert it to fiat as has been explained upthread by smooth (e.g. Bitpay, etc), then BTC becomes an illiquid asset once the government issues capital controls. BTC is not immune to government action (especially G20 coordinated action) because BTC is not a widespread unit-of-account.

However, BTC has apparently become the unit-of-account of crypto-gambling, but it is not yet certain if the demand for that will remain if people no longer believe they can cash out to fiat unfettered when they want to, and the risk of CC failure due to centralization is a big factor that would cause speculators to be hesitant about thinking they could HODL/gamble in BTC long-term until capital controls cease.

This is my goal is to fix the centralization problem with my CC design and also I am going to make CC a very popular unit-of-account for social network payments. But first I am creating a new programming language, then I have to create the social network, and then finally the CC, so hell may freeze over before I am done. 

Note I also contributed the key technical insight[1] into how to make decentralized exchange work so it can't be jammed.

[1] Find my posts in this thread and note that TierNolan is one of the original inventors of the DE protocol, but it had a jamming flaw until I fixed it: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/atomic-swaps-using-cut-and-choose-1364951

The inflation / deflation "recipe" the Elite are using is more advanced than single-dimensional classical analysis. They are inflating the debt-markets (otherwise they go bust by non-refinancing / non-rollover of debt) and deflating the small guy. Large debt markets get refunded and the small guy gets a liquidity crunch or a problematic daily costs / daily income ratio (if he doesn't own any loans).

Thus the small guy is like "what inflation? The dollar (or X currency) is becoming scarcer by the day - I'd do anything for (...fewer) dollars than yesterday because my bills are now bigger and the pressure is mounting".

Deflating the small guy leads him to the pawn shop to sell his jewelry, leads him to ebay, to sell his stuff, leads him to the real estate agent to sell his property, etc etc. Why? Because he needs to find cash - which are becoming "scarcer", not because the government isn't issuing a lot of currency, but because the banks are slowly drying up the avg person liquidity and the costs of life are rising.

It is essential for their plan to have the small guy beaten by deflation while they are inflating the debt markets by the trillions. If the small guy had "helicopter money" he would be buying precious metals, bitcoins etc. Even if 95% of the people just went on walmart and spent their helicopter money, the 5% that would choose to stack some gold, silver, bitcoins etc, would be *extremely* dangerous in destabilizing their price suppression schemes on alternative currencies.

All of the above applies for western societies mainly, where people's purchasing power is immense (by global standards) and their currencies are considered "solid" - without much inflationary effect being visible (that's an illusion btw).

Developing countries with inflation are a lesser threat to the elite because they also have the issue of capital controls, in the sense that the population of a developing country with high inflation, rarely has unlimited access to the forex market, or the gold market. If, say, a country with high inflation allowed their citizens to buy dollars or gold in an unlimited fashion, they would simply run out of foreign reserves to buy essentials like food, oil etc - which are traded with USD in the global commodity markets. No USD reserves = no commerce / no imports = problems. So, for reasons of "general wellbeing" it will be generally disallowed for citizens to (massively) dump their currency in favor of foreign currencies or gold.

The developing countries are the "useful idiots" of the whole system as the developed countries point to them to "prove" that they have no inflation. If, say, Venezuela runs at 50%, then USA can pretend to run 0% - because no-one is challenging them in terms of running an honest currency. The western nations are also inflating in sync, so that it is imperceptible what they are doing. Even countries which do not have the need to inflate their money supply, did so. Switzerland for example. They were getting all those inflows from other countries and then they "decided" to "peg" their currency to the euro in specific ratios. In other words, issuing as many new swiss francs as were needed in order to ...buy all the inflating euros, dollars etc. The hand of the Elite is quite visible in cases like this because such moves don't make any economic sense in the context of said nation (Switzerland is not China that would be hampered by rising currency rates - in fact it would boost the perception of solidness and by extension their banking sector which is their ...core business). These moves only make sense under the macroscopic view of the global economy and in-sync / co-ordinated attempt to inflate all western nations simultaneously, in order to make devaluation imperceptible.

Now, regarding the end game. There is no end game unless they decide so. What they are primarily interested in is to make a financial reset that allows them to use a similar economic system as this one, without the economic system taking the blame for the "collapse". They want to attribute the fall to outside causes. Wars, disease, terrorism, "irresponsible corporations", natural disasters - whatever they can. They do not want to make it apparent that the debt-based system was a scam and doomed from the start. They will perpetuate this for as long as it serves their purpose and for as long as they haven't found the right excuse to proceed to a reset.

Learn how to read English.

The aspect / point / reference and diversion of Ransomware was explained by me multiple times.
I made a god damn point.. my persepctive.
It was ignored 99%

01% of my point was about Ransomware but these "Experts"
Decided to ignore EVERYTHING i said and rail on about Ransomware being irrelevant.
Which i played along and even proved smooth full of shit about it.

This guy is not a rocket scientist..
He left me invalid negative feedback before because i have criticized his shit coin. <-- Proof of Stupidity.
His motivation for being here even after he said he was leaving a little over 1.5 years ago
..is simply to flog his "Anon" gimmick shitcoin Monero.

Mine ?

To give you Monero idiots the middle finger and remind you how stupid you are with your shenanigans.
I don't take trade advice from people who can't read or tie their shoes.

So carry on with out me apparently you guys got this covered.
Although i had been saying what the OP said long before he made this topic though.

It's sort of like how i stick my neck out then get harassed to no end by my self.
only to have the legions of slow poke investard dregs ride my coat tails later.
I have infinite examples..
Take Doge Coin.. it played out like others such as ETH.
And in both cases i said it was fucked and would deflate hard.

WHERE WHERE YOU GUYS ?

Silent.. buying them like greedy Investards hoping to make a buck off it / them.
And if you can read English and actually comprehend it my point should be pretty fucking obvious.
But i doubt it.. so here goes.
Point being is later, you all hopped on the Doge coin is shit band wagon
and later you hopped on the ETH is shit band wagon and later..
You all hop on the Altcoins will tank hard soon when BTC halves band wagon.

Difference is i am always right and i don't need to be told what my next opinion is.

Bitcoin has already demonstrated its ability to drop by 90% and (partially) recover. If you are overweight, think about what that means to your ability to accumulate lower.

I have under 25% now, but in the event of a substantial drop, I may well end up with more coins than someone starting with a higher weight now. If that never happens and the 1000x event happens first, I'll still be fine.

Granted you may be actively trading and planning on stopping out before taking a big loss, sure, but that whole approach is still not really "risk averse" as I would consider the term (in the sense of owning 25% metals, 25% land, etc.)

My statement was made with the assumption someone had equivalent crypto knowledge as myself and knew how to operate things like a stop loss.  Much of that risk just disappears unless you're imagining a scenario where the underlying cryptography fails, or quantum computer comes out of the blue and rewrites entire chain.  I wasn't really talking about 90 year old women buying BTC.  As for admitting, as Smooth, you have less than 25% in BTC, you disgrace village...very dishonorable.

In other news:  Bitcoin war on Overclock.net declared

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/it-is-time-to-declare-war-on-overclocknet-1455145

LOL no.

BTC is like a 1000-1 (or more, possibly much more) shot on becoming a world reserve currency, perhaps overlaid with some value as a medium of exchange for dark(-ish) markets (and I guess for altcoin speculation too, as long as that survives).

There is nothing risk-averse investing about that, though a much smaller weighting might be consistent for diversification, and indeed given the potential upside of BTC a smaller weight will still produce very nice returns in the good case.

This is not say that 25% BTC is a terrible idea (I have less, but not a whole lot less, but then again I'm not so risk-averse), just that it isn't risk averse.

Likewise for alts.

It's just getting started (the alt drop and btc rise that is).

So, r0ach did the bottom drop already or we are yet to see true blood? What is your current take on the situation?

Anyone who is risk adverse would have a portfolio of something like 25% physical cash, 25% metals, 25% land/rental properties, 25% btc.  Although such a spread is somewhat difficult for most people to achieve when incorporating any amount of land is a large amount of money.  None of this involves using a bank.

http://independenttrader.org/permanent-portfolio-models-and-their-long-term-roi.html

Stocks and bonds are out of the question right now, so most of that info is outdated.  If you can't afford land at all to incorporate, well, that means you don't really have much and might as well hit the maximum leverage long button on something and maybe you'll be an aristocrat someday.