Topic: Recession soon? (Read 1429 times)

Do you speak German?
We cater for the German market and about 60% of our clients went crying instead of doing.
We sold article places for a Scandinavian company about 1000 e a month worth, now we sell them articles about 500 € a year worth.
Your single point is looking only at industrial levels, German are blaming their Government. Most of the guilt is on them.
When older you grow more cautious.
Now do yo speak German or just judge by articles you read?

The problem is having a single point of failure.

Take the least economically developed countries (LEDCs). Almost all of them have a single point of failure which is having a single-product economy, take that product away and their economy falls apart.

Germany (and other EU countries like it) also have a single point of failure which was building a massive industrial economy that relied on importing super cheap energy. Something Russia abused too by the way. Any energy price higher than "super cheap" meant deindustrialization, the higher the price the larger the deindustrialization because such products can not compete internationally with competitors like China that both have access to cheaper energy and super duper cheap working force.

This is not narrowmindedness, this is just lack of resources. This not for today either, Europe has been like this for centuries, with countries that were at each others' throats for fighting over resources and later over off continent colonies. The darkest times were 20'th century where their wars poured into the rest of the world and we had European War 1 and European War 2 which are commonly known as WW1 and WW2.

Just having a worse life and still having a life is not a solution. If you end up living a worse life but having no financial trouble when you live that way, saying that "I am doing fine since I have no debt" is not enough, yeah you do not have debt, because you managed to live much poor life style, that's why it is not acceptable.

I believe that we should be able to live the same life, in fact every person should gradually live better and better unless something major happened in their life, and if you are going worse and worse then that's a problem. This is what we are seeing today, people grow to be poorer, and that's not acceptable, we need to be richer and not poorer and that's why it is such a shame that we think we are fine, just because we may not have debt.

While we live in an ever more globalized world, it's worth understanding that recessions can still be localized to certain countries and regions, so it's too blanket a statement to make "Recession soon?" unless you specify where. Besides that, if we go by the definition of two successive quarters of negative growth, then some countries can fall into 0.1% decrease in annual GDP and they would technically be in a recession, but it would not be all that damaging necessarily. It's when we enter a global crisis, such as the pandemic or the financial crisis that things really get bad, but few people can predict such events. You just have to diversify your assets in the hope that you can weather any storm out there.

Then countries such as Italy, Spain or France should not grow either. But they do. The actual reasons of stagnating economy is due to a completely incompetent economic policy and energy policy that is paralyzing small and medium-sized businesses and causing large companies to relocate and doing investments abroad.

Germany is in recession due to a narrow minded aging population.
You'd be surprised at the narrow mindedness you also find in younger people who are educated by older people.
The school systems in the east and west differ. Most are copied from the west and have thus a problem at hand.  

Maybe for developed countries, as some you said, they won't be too affected by the recession if they only want to change quality rather than quantity, with the aim of only wanting to make bigger profits. Because currently they are still accepting workers from developing countries to be employed in their country. Does that mean they just want to change the payment system for their citizens, which may already be high, to new employees from developing countries with cheaper wages? So there is no such thing as a recession, but they want to continue to be able to produce good quality with wages that can possibly be reduced, thereby producing more profits, but many of the citizens are not being accommodated by replacing workers.

Germany is into a recession because of a completely incompetent government with a minister of economic affairs who does not even understand the principles of economic trade. Any country would be in recession with such politicans in charge. Many other European countries like Spain or Italy are growing. Japan is not yet in a recession, too. The US economy is booming. I am wondering why so many people are talking about a recession. There are no sign following the data.

https://electrek.co/2024/03/23/big-auto-is-begging-governments-to-let-them-go-bankrupt-as-chinese-evs-loom/

Oh well, if West wants to become poorer so that China can become richer, who am I to argue with them?

they already have manufactured lots of it in Mexico which TRump threatened to ask huge tariff for it if the Chinese EV producers are planning to sell on US soil.
the Chinese were producing them on US soil but they didn't seem to like it so the Chinese moved to Mexico.

they do have Tesla though so this is quite a competition off Musk but the price between the Tesla and BYD EV is huge. Tesla is around $80K while BYD cars are less than  $30K. so there is a huge difference, it can really compete well and they are saying it works longer than Tesla's battery.

Just wait until China starts mass-manufacturing electric vehicles and then see what will happen to your beloved Germany and the €uro. Internal combustion engines will be penalized heavily (this will bolster China's economy), EURO 6 already imposes some insane demands.

Then maybe you'll understand why West shouldn't have helped China in the first place, but it will be too late for you to realize why...

Macroeconomics aren't for everyone, I'm afraid.

Regarding Taiwan:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-20/china-on-track-to-be-ready-for-taiwan-invasion-by-2027-us-says?embedded-checkout=true
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-building-military-scale-not-seen-wwii-invade-taiwan-aquilino-2024-3

Russia/Ukraine conflict will be the least of our worries by then... China vs Taiwan will be 100 times worse for the global economy. Expect microchip prices to cost thousands times more due to scarcity.

Could be the next bear market/crypto winter (or maybe it could spark hyperinflation to introduce CBDC as a "New Deal"), we'll see.

We are still feeling the effect of Covid-19 even if the ban or lockdown has been lifted for years already. It's hard to recover from that event, government is still affected and even their is a change of governance already since the pandemic, still they are inheriting the financial issues that was brought to us.

Even the biggest economies around the world like China, US and other European countries have problems. And we have heard warnings from financial analyst about the recessions. It's just up to us on how to hedge it, how to survived and then uses our resiliency time and time again.

Ha they got replaced by AI or their ceo saw them as an excess expense on the companies budget, about recession I think it's has started long ago and its not from the government but rather technological advancement, the world is moving fast these times and the old ways of doing things are getting abolished and to stay on track or remain winning you need to be at the standard of how things are done.

A lot of things could be the reasons why your friends were sacked but it may have nothing to do with recession unless the company is going bankrupt or have a change of business style thar doesn't involve workers, or maybe bad behavior.

What we are seeing in the world today cannot simply be called an economic recession. There are deep social and geopolitical changes where most of the post 90s international business/ trade etiquette has become obsolete. The growth we have witnessed in the last two decades has been due to two major reasons:

1. Proliferation of tech companies and IT services.
2. An active sociopolitical backing for globalization and cross-cultural teams (ensuring cheaper workforce for western companies, especially tech)

Both of these pillars have now outlived their utility. COVID has made companies re-look supply chains while work from home has shown them that maybe they don't actually need all those people. Couple that with the most recent wave of work automation which is being touted as AGI.

All of these factors mean that the whole value arbitrage between countries is changing in real time. This is also one of the times when the fundamental strengths of the American economy are again on full display. It stands to gain the most in this value arbitrage. Next in line is China which has done wonders to its capabilities.

The countries that are most vulnerable are the populous third world nations that have ridden on the west's need to have more "English-speaking" workers to do hitherto menial back-office work. These countries include India and those in SEA. Both of these groups stand to lose big time, unless they can start relying on their internal markets.

In short, we are not in a global recession but there will be a lot of downgrade to life standards in the "dependent third world nations" in the coming time period. I doubt that the US or the developed west has anything to worry about. This whole situation has been intentional and a long time in making to ensure wealth preservation for the Western elite and its playing out beautifully.

You should also take into account the particular industry you work in. A recession is more likely to affect some industries than others. Certain businesses, such as construction and hospitality, are particularly susceptible to fluctuations in the economy due to their cyclical nature. More stable and less cyclical are industries like healthcare and education. Thus, it's important to think about your industry and assess how vulnerable it is to a recession. Since nothing in this world is permanent, you must be prepared for everything. To avoid going bankrupt, you might also think about beginning a side business or investing your money in case there is ever a recession.

All these things that are happening in the world is the cause of the government and the capitalists in the world. Because they want to control wealth by themselves. There are two business tycoons in my country and both sell cement. One of them was trying to reduce the price so that common poor people can buy and build house but the other guy influenced him to increase the price instead and cement which was sold as $3.69 is sold $10.50 now. So they are purposely doing this to suffer the people.

After the COVID19 things were still going well until the bad leaders took over the mantle of leadership and everything scattered. Companies are not hiring but instead they firing. Really we are in serious recession.

No need to continue, according to your logic the only country which deserves to produce riches is yours?
Or none as it's up to their people to do what they think they need to do.
No regime is eternal and stable, it only takes a few ingredients and they fall.

No one voluntarily chooses bankruptcy express. Redundancy? It's better than nothing, but it's not a panacea. This provides momentary alleviation but does not fix the problem. Recessions mean companies cutting staff to survive, right?

Reducing pay is another matter. We're still paid, but at what cost? Our livelihoods? Our sanity? You're right: temporary pain for long-term gain. This temporary becomes the new normal when? Companies love to promise salary rebounds and raises. However, how often does that occur?

Saving or investing for the worst is wise. No argument. However, many can't afford preparing The key? Don't merely avoid life's unavoidable challenges; learn how to find meaning and purpose in them

I think the global economy is going into recession. Major global economies, such as Germany, Japan etc., went into recession this year and the chances are that many other countries will follow suit. The other reason might be that companies are laying off employees because they are looking to cut their expenses and increase profit. They might prefer quality over quantity. With China's economic slowdown and news about the NATO-Russia war (probably a bluff), things can go south in the coming months.

No one wants to get bankrupt, so redundancy is always going to be their first choice once they enter a recession state. There is still a chance for them to recover and that's going to be the time for them to add more workers again. I think another option that a company can do is to reduce their worker's salary.

This is sad but at least we are still working and earning something as a worker, right? And it can only be temporary but once the company recovers again, our salary can also go back to normal and might have an increase as a compensation to what happened last time. It's still better to prepare for the worst like a recession by having some savings or investment.